The AEA Microgeneration Index
1
The AEA Microgeneration Index
The AEA Microgeneration Index Tracking the progress of microgeneration in the UK Quarterly Summary Report - Issue 4
September 2011
The AEA Microgeneration Index
Introduction Welcome to the fourth issue of the AEA Microgeneration Index. Reaction to the third issue was, again, very positive. It was presented at a number of conferences, and covered in national and local media. We also had some useful comments about how to develop new ways of presenting data – for which we thank you. In response, we have been piloting geographic information system (GIS) mapping methods – more on this below.
Going for growth
Future growth
Since the first issue of the AEA Microgeneration Index was published, the market has shown continued growth in the capacity and number of installations. While we continue to be surrounded by cautious, or foreboding, economic news, the rate of market growth in microgeneration continues to increase. Since April 2010, growth in total microgeneration capacity has been five fold, with solar photovoltaic (PV) increasing nine fold and wind and hydro doubling. 180 160
Installed capacity (MWe)
2
Micro CHP AD
140
Hydro 120
Wind
100
PV
80 60 40 20 0 Apr-10
‘e’ denotes electrical energy
September 2011
r 4PMBSQBSLT r 4PDJBMIPVTJOHQSPKFDUT r *ODSFBTFEBQQMJDBUJPOTUPCFBUUIF 31 March 2012 deadline. To qualify for the original 30.7 p/kWh Feed-in Tariff (FIT) support level, solar parks with a capacity of 100 kWe or more were required to be connected to the grid by 1 August. A significant number of solar parks have achieved this. Therefore, many tens of MWe capacity will be registered in the coming months, which will change the market pattern. In future, some of these schemes may add extensions of several MWe. However, this route to retain the original FIT support level for extensions is being closed by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), so solar parks are likely to add a spectacular, but short-lived, uplift to the market.
Jun-11
This trend looks set to continue, with installations of small-scale, domestic solar PV driving market growth. In the last issue of the AEA Microgeneration Index, we produced some short-term projections for this segment, suggesting that domestic solar PV would reach between 85 MWe 1 and 103 MWe by the end of June 2011. Instead, it reached 113 MWe and growth rates seem set to increase – at least until March 2012. 1
In addition to the organic growth in individual domestic solar PV, additional growth is expected from:
A number of social housing providers are developing programmes to roll out 100s or 1,000s of installations on the roofs of their housing stock. With typical sizes of 2.5 kWe per system, these programmes could add several MWe of capacity. Unlike the solar parks, these will be developed gradually and will appear as small-scale domestic systems. Finally, the FIT support levels for systems installed after 31 March 2012 are not known, but will be revised downwards by DECC
Quarterly Summary Report - Issue 4
following the comprehensive FIT review, which is due to be published at the end of 2011. It is likely that FIT support levels will fall significantly, leading to a surge in applications to beat the 31 March deadline. Several factors point to this:
A postcode district typically has around 9,000 postal addresses, so population levels are more consistent and comparable than those in local authority areas. As there are over 2,700 postcode districts in the FIT dataset, we have used a GIS map to display the data.
r %&$$IBTBDMFBSSFRVJSFNFOUUPLFFQ within the FIT budget envelope. r 5IF'*5CVEHFUFOWFMPQFJODSFBTFTMJOFBSMZ but the market is growing exponentially. r 5IFDBQJUBMDPTUPGUFDIOPMPHZJTGBMMJOH especially solar PV. r %&$$TSFRVJSFNFOUUPNBJOUBJOUIF cost-effectiveness of the FIT scheme.
The map shows installed capacity in allFIT technologies mapped at postcode district level. It uses ten colour-coded steps to indicate installed capacity.
Mapping the market Installed capacity (kWe) by postcode district 0 1 - 20 21 - 50 51 - 100 101 - 300 301 - 500 501 - 800 801 - 1,000 1,001 - 1,500 1,501 - 2,000
Compared with using local authority areas, the postcode district map shows in more detail where the hot spots are. AEA can produce detailed maps for a specific region, a single technology or a specific FIT support level.
Focus on the UK’s biggest cities In the third issue of the AEA Microgeneration Index, we published a chart showing FIT capacity in the UK’s ten largest cities. During the following three months, growth in these cities has continued (eg capacity in London has increased by 37% and in Glasgow by 131%). However, as some cities start from a low capacity, a better measure is the installed capacity in relation to the population, as shown below.
2,001 - 2,300
In response, we are piloting another way of showing the data on the UK market – at postcode district level. A postcode district is the area defined by the first part of the postcode (eg AL9 or OX11).
September 2011
Installed capacity per 1,000 population (kWe)
Providing data on capacity and installations at a local authority level is a straightforward approach and has a number of advantages. For example, most people know, can quickly find and identify with, the local authority area they live in. However, it has been pointed out that there are wide differences between local authority areas. Some are very rural, having few homes and diverse renewable energy resources; others have a large population and less opportunity for some forms of renewable energy. This is not ideal when comparing areas.
4
3
2
1
0
Lo
B M B S G L Bir L E mi eed lasg heffi radf anc dinb iverp risto s on ng urg ow eld ord he l, C oo ha s h t ity Ci er m ,C l ty of ity of
nd
Hence, Sheffield stands out as the leading city, with Bristol, Leeds and Bradford following. A typical domestic solar PV system has a capacity of around 2.5 kWe, so installation rates are generally well below one system per 1,000 population. The proposed large-scale rollout programmes for solar PV in social housing will tend to be in cities, so
3
4
The AEA Microgeneration Index
installation rates could increase dramatically. For example, phase 2 of the Birmingham Energy Savers initiative aims to install solar PV on 2,000 roofs. On its own, this would increase the installation rate in Birmingham to almost 6 kWe per 1,000 population.
Colin McNaught Knowledge Leader - Energy
Colin has 20 years of experience in the energy field covering economic, technical and policy studies across a wide range of technologies and techniques. His recent work includes assessments of local carbon saving potential for a number of businesses and local authorities, covering microgeneration and energy efficiency opportunities. This includes technical and economic analysis of the opportunities, along with development of delivery mechanisms – to take the potential to reality. Therefore, Colin has a detailed understanding of how the FIT and Renewable Heat Initiative transform the economics of microgeneration. To discuss the AEA Microgeneration Index and the issues it raises, or to request a tailor-made report for your organisation, please contact Colin. t: +44 (0)870 190 6191 m: +44 (0)7968 707 649 e: [email protected]
About the AEA Microgeneration Index The UK FIT scheme was introduced in April 2010. It aims to incentivise the use of smallscale, low carbon electricity generation (under 5 MWe). The FIT scheme, together with the forthcoming Renewable Heat Incentive, has a major role to play in helping the UK make a successful transition to a low carbon economy. The low carbon technologies supported by the FIT scheme include: r r r r r
4PMBS17 8JOE )ZESP "OBFSPCJDEJHFTUJPO "% %PNFTUJDTDBMFNJDSP$)1 VQUPBOE including 2 kWe – pilot for first 30,000 schemes).
Under the scheme, installations receive an attractive ‘cash-back’ payment for every kWh of electricity generated. The tariff support levels depend on the type of technology and the size of the system. The income that can be gained has increased very significantly; small-scale solar PV has increased by 600%. The design of the FIT scheme has set tariffs at a level that should provide a return on investment of between 5% and 8%. Before 1 October 2010, it was possible for existing generators to transfer into the scheme. While generators under 50 kWe were transferred to the FIT scheme, existing installations between 50 kWe and 5 MWe (installed after 15 July 2009) could choose to remain under the existing Renewables Obligation (RO) arrangement. It is envisaged that low carbon technologies, and the incentives that aim to drive their uptake, will play an increasingly important role in helping the UK to meet its carbon targets.
September 2011
Quarterly Summary Report - Issue 4
The fourth issue of the AEA Microgeneration Index uses data available from Ofgem on the number and capacity of systems that have confirmed their registration for the FIT by 30 June 2011. The data are being updated and revised continually, so statistical reports extracted at a later date may not exactly match the totals presented here. For further details on the methods and assumptions used, please visit: www.aeat.com/microgenerationindex/ about
UK overview In the first 15 months to 30 June 2011, 160.96 MWe of low carbon electricity generation has registered under the FIT scheme, with a total of 44,460 separate installations.
Figure 1 shows that the largest proportion of the installed capacity under the FIT scheme is from solar PV, with almost 75% of the capacity. Wind installations have just over 14% of installed capacity and hydro installations make up around 8%. AD accounts for 3.1% of installed capacity and micro CHP installations registered under the scheme contribute only 0.1%. Figure 2: Total cumulative UK installed capacity over the last 15 months 2 160
Micro CHP AD
140
Installed capacity (MWe)
AEA has helped produce the UK renewable energy statistics for DECC and its predecessors for many years. The AEA Microgeneration Index complements this by tracking the progress being made against the expectations for small-scale renewable energy generation. It provides analysis of the microgeneration sector’s performance over time and establishes how well the incentives are working.
Hydro 120
Wind PV
100
80 60 40 20 0
M A M J S M J O N D J F A J r 1 ay un 1 ul 1 ug ep ct 1 ov ec an 1 eb ar pr 1 ay un 1 10 10 11 1 10 0 0 1 0 0 10 10 1 11 11
Ap
Figure 2 shows there has been rapid growth over the first 15 months of the FIT scheme - overall, a five-fold increase in installed capacity. The largest increase in capacity is from solar PV, which increased nine fold. Most solar PV systems do not require planning permission - unlike technologies such as wind, hydro and AD, which do.
Figure 1: Analysis of current UK capacity by technology PV 74.7% 120.16 MWe, 42,590 installations Wind 14.2% 22.90 MWe, 1,490 installations Hydro 7.9% 12.75 MWe, 218 installations AD 3.1% 4.99 MWe, 5 installations 2
Micro CHP 0.1% 0.16 MWe, 157 installations
September 2011
This chart shows the application date for all schemes with confirmed FIT registration by 30 June 2011. Data for schemes that applied before 30 June 2011, but did not have FIT registration confirmed, will appear in future data and charts.
5
The AEA Microgeneration Index
Estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) savings Based on the following estimates of load factor, it is calculated that annual GHG savings (carbon dioxide equivalent) will be about 118,800 tonnes 3.
Technology 4
Load factor (%)
AD
70%
Hydro5
36.7%
Micro CHP
12%
Solar PV6
9.7%
Wind7
5% - 26.9% (depending on scale)
Figure 3: Estimated annual GHG emission savings by technology 60,000
Annual GHG Savings (tonnes CO2 equivalent)
6
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Figure 3 shows that annual GHG savings from solar PV are likely to be greatest, based on the current installed capacity and assumed load factors. Wind, hydro and AD installations will also result in significant annual GHG savings. AD operates at a higher load factor, offering greater GHG savings per kWe installed. 3
Based on grid electricity emission factor 0.54667 tonnes/MWh
4
AEA analysis of AD plants for DECC
5
UK average load factor from Energy Trends analysis
6
DECC analysis for FIT design
7
DECC analysis for FIT design and Energy Trends analysis
September 2011
Solar PV has the largest installed capacity (almost ten times that of hydro) and is estimated to contribute around 47% of the GHG savings. This is lower than the percentage share of installed capacity, which reflects the lower capacity factor of the technology.
Progress against expectations DECC’s response to the consultation on FITs stated ‘It is expected that, by 2020, the scheme will support over 750,000 smallscale, low carbon electricity installations and will have saved 7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide’. 44,460 installations have registered under the FIT scheme in the first 15 months, which is almost 6% of the 2020 expectation. With estimated annual GHG (carbon dioxide equivalent) savings of around 118,800 tonnes per year from installations confirmed in the first 15 months, the FIT scheme has delivered 1.7% of the 2020 expectation.
Quarterly Summary Report - Issue 4
Technology overview This section provides a breakdown of technologies installed by their different FIT support levels.
investment required and the longer timeframe for development. Short-term growth is expected in this tariff support level as several large, MWe-scale solar parks were completed before the start of August 2011 and their details will appear in future market data. The revised tariff support levels for these large schemes will make this a short-term impact on market growth.
Solar photovoltaic
Wind power
Figure 4: Installed solar PV capacity by different FIT support levels
Figure 5: Installed wind capacity by different FIT support levels
45,000 40,000
80
30,000 25,000
60 20,000 40
15,000 10,000
20 5,000 0
0
8 7 6 5 4 3 2
Number of installations
35,000
Installed capacity (MWe)
100
Number of installations
Installed capacity (MWe)
120
1 0
Figure 4 shows that the solar PV capacity registered under the scheme is dominated by installations under 4 kWe that have been retrofitted to buildings. There have been over 38,300 of these small installations, with a combined installed capacity of almost 103 MWe, 99.3% of these installations are in the domestic sector. These systems do not need planning permission and companies offering to provide capital investment for domestic solar PV systems in return for FIT revenue are likely to be boosting the installation rates at this scale. The installed capacity for solar PV new build is negligible in comparison, with only 549 installations contributing 0.98 MWe. This could be attributed to the current economic downturn, stagnant housing market and low levels of new build. Only one solar PV system above 100 kWe has been registered under the scheme – a commercial system with an installed capacity of 200 kWe. This low level of installation is likely to be attributed to the level of capital
September 2011
The installed capacity of wind technology at different scales is much more diverse than that for solar PV, as shown by Figure 5. Wind capacity has doubled since April 2010. The strongest growth is in the 1.5 kWe to 15 kWe tariff support level, increasing almost three fold since April 2010. This also has the largest number of new wind installations 641 installations, with a combined installed capacity of 5.6 MWe. Around 77% of installations at this tariff support level are in the domestic sector and 19% are in the commercial sector. There have been very few installations in the smallest wind tariff support level (under 1.5 kWe) or the 100 kWe to 500 kWe tariff support level. The 500 kWe to 1.5 MWe tariff support level has the highest level of installed capacity, with 7.5 MWe installed across ten installations. However, there is only one installation at the 1.5 MWe to 5 MWe tariff support level – a commercial system with an installed capacity of 2.3 MWe.
7
The AEA Microgeneration Index
Larger wind projects have longer lead times and higher development costs (due to wind speed monitoring, site investigations and planning permission). For schemes in the 500 kWe to 1.5 MWe tariff support level, the FIT is twice the support level to that of the RO. However, for schemes above 1.5 MWe, the FIT is set at a similar support level to that of the RO, which reduces the incentive for these larger schemes to apply for the FIT. 751 installations, with a combined installed capacity of around 4.8 MWe, transferred into the scheme from the RO.
Hydro
Hydro schemes have high development costs, and require detailed feasibility studies to be carried out on the energy produced and the impacts on watercourses. Therefore, larger scale schemes have a better potential to repay this upfront investment.
Figure 6: Installed hydro capacity by different FIT support levels
10
140
120
100 8 80 6 60 4 40 2
0
Number of installations
12
Installed capacity (MWe)
8
20
0
Figure 6 shows a breakdown of different hydro installations under the different tariff support levels. Hydro installed capacity has doubled since April 2010. The 126 schemes that have migrated from the RO comprise the largest number of hydro systems installed. While these are different sizes of installation, they have an average capacity of around 13.73 kWe and a combined capacity of 1.73 MWe. Hydro capacity is greatest in the 100 kWe to 2 MWe tariff support level, where 12 installations, with a combined capacity of 9.8 MWe, have been registered. Since the last AEA Microgeneration Index was published, four new installations have registered at this support level, suggesting this is a key area for growth.
September 2011
Anaerobic digestion From zero installations and capacity at the start of the FIT, there are now five AD plants confirmed under the scheme. One at the under 500 kWe tariff support level and four at the over 500 kWe support level. The installed capacities of these schemes are 170 kWe, 526 kWe, 1.06 MWe, 3.13 MWe and 1.1 MWe. The Fast Track FIT Review has confirmed that higher tariff support levels are now available for ‘farm-scale’ AD systems (ie below 500 kWe). AD systems are very different from many of the other technologies, with added complexity such as the need for planning permission, and to secure contracts for feedstock and outlets for digestate. Only time will tell if the increase in support level is sufficient to encourage more development.
Micro CHP There is only one tariff support level for micro CHP. There are 157 installations, with a total installed capacity of 158 kWe. This is 0.5% of the 30,000 micro CHP schemes allowed under the pilot.
Quarterly Summary Report - Issue 4
Regional overview
Figure 8 shows the split of each technology for the different areas of the UK. Distribution of the technologies can be seen to be influenced by available resource (eg more hydro and wind power installations in Scotland). AD schemes are starting to make an impact in some of the more rural regions.
Figure 7: Total installed capacity by region8 30
9,000
25 7,000 20
6,000 5,000
15 4,000 10
3,000 2,000
Number of installations
Installed capacity (MWe)
8,000
There are significant regional differences. In London, solar PV accounts for 99% of the installed capacity compared with the North East and East Midlands having 83.9% and 77.6% respectively. In Scotland, solar PV installed capacity is just 17.1%. Figure 9: Analysis of regional capacity by domestic, commercial, industrial and community installations
5
30 1,000 0
Figure 7 shows installed capacities for the English regions, and for Scotland and Wales. It should be noted that each region has different population densities, renewable energy resources and land area. Scotland has shown the highest installed capacity, but the South West is gradually catching up. The large solar parks that are now being connected in the South West will have a significant impact on future results. Figure 8: Analysis of regional installed capacity by technology 30
Installed capacity (MWe)
25
20
15
10
25
Installed capacity (MWe)
0
0
September 2011
15
10
5
0
Figure 9 shows the split between the different installation types (domestic, commercial, industrial and community). It shows that the domestic sector has the largest share of installed capacity in most regions. This is driven by the small-scale solar PV uptake – the most active and consistent area of market growth. This pattern is different in Scotland, where the largest installed capacity comes from the commercial sector. This is predominantly from hydro and wind installations. 8
5
20
Several schemes do not have location information in the Ofgem data. Therefore, the region and local authority are unknown. AEA searches out additional data to identify the location of these schemes. This has a focus on identifying the largest projects, which have the greatest impact on the regional and local data. This process reduces the number designated as ‘Unknown’, with those remaining predominantly small-scale solar PV schemes.
9
The AEA Microgeneration Index
Across the UK, it can be seen that there are very low levels of registration of projects at industrial sites. This may reflect the current economic climate, focus on core business activities, requirement for planning permission for larger projects, and issues over ownership of land and buildings.
Figure 10: Summary of microgeneration in East Riding of Yorkshire PV 39.3% 919.01 KWe, 266 installations Wind 15.1% 353.17 KWe, 26 installations
Local authority snapshot
AD 45.5% 1,063.00 KWe, 1 installation
Micro CHP 0.1% 2.97 KWe, 3 installations
Microgeneration Index Figure 11: Top-ten local authorities by total installed capacity
7
1,200
6
With almost 400 local authorities, the amount of data prevents us including detailed breakdowns of capacity for each in this report. Instead, our website (www.aeat.com/ microgenerationindex) provides these data for other local authority areas. To show this, we have included an example of a single local authority dataset. In this issue, we provide a snapshot for East Riding of Yorkshire.
Installed capacity (MWe)
10
1,000
5 800 4 600 3 400 2 200
1
0 Ab
The installed capacity in East Riding of Yorkshire is 2.34 MWe. Just over 1 MWe of the installed capacity in East Riding of Yorkshire is the result of one commercial AD installation. This represents just over 45% of the local installed capacity at the end of the first 15 months of the FIT scheme. Solar PV contributes almost 40% to the installed capacity and wind just over 15%. Most of the 296 installations in East Riding of Yorkshire are in the domestic sector, but there are two community installations – one solar PV and one wind – and 19 commercial installations (four solar PV, 14 wind and one AD).
September 2011
0 Ea Ar Ge Ca Hi Do Ba gh gy st rns rdi nc dli l l Rid l& an ng a ff l &K ee a d Bu ing ster ey ns inr ll hir te os of e s Yo rks hir e
erd
Pe
rth
Co
rnw
Figure 11 shows the top-ten local authorities in terms of installed capacity. Aberdeenshire has the highest at 5.88 MWe, representing 3.7% of the total installed capacity across England, Scotland and Wales. This capacity is across 175 installations, with 5.5 MWe coming from wind turbine installations, predominantly from six 800 kWe turbines. Cornwall, Doncaster and Barnsley are more representative of most local authority areas, where solar PV dominates. Gedling and East Riding of Yorkshire join the top ten based on the AD systems in each of these two areas.
Quarterly Summary Report - Issue 4
3.0
1,000
2.5 800 2.0 600 1.5 400 1.0 200
0.5
0 H K W Is rns the effi ilts le o irkle erefo elw rnw nc h rds y rha eld ire f W es all aste ley hir n H igh m r e, Co atfie t
0 Co
Do
Ba
Ro
Sh
W
un ld ty of
Cornwall has the best solar PV resource in the UK and the highest solar PV capacity,with just over 3 MWe of installed capacity. Figure 12 shows that several local authority areas further north, particularly in the Yorkshire and the Humber region, also have high levels of installed capacity, including Doncaster, Barnsley, Rotherham and Sheffield, which all have between 2 MWe and 2.2 MWe. Several of these authorities have developed local solar PV installation campaigns, leading to higher installation rates. In addition, the Yorkshire and the Humber region has made much progress in developing a local supply chain.
Figure 14: Top-ten local authorities by installed hydro capacity 5.0
25
4.5 4.0
20
3.5 3.0
15
2.5 2.0
10
1.5 1.0
5
0.5 0
0 C D A P G S A L H rth ighl rgyl tirlin ope um wyn owy eed berd s lan frie s g e & K and l & ee s & dd Bu d ns inr hir te Ga os e s llo wa y
Pe
Figure 14 shows that the top ten areas for hydro energy also show significant variation. Installed capacity in Perth & Kinross at 4.4 MWe is notably higher than that in the other areas. Again, Scottish local authorities are prominent, with six reaching the top ten.
Figure 13: Top-ten local authorities by installed wind capacity 90 80 5 70 4
60 50
3 40 2
30 20
1
Number of installations
Installed capacity (MWe)
6
Explore the AEA Microgeneration Index online and register to get the next issue sent direct to your inbox
10 0
0 E D O A C W C Pe Hi y g r erd ard rkn rgyl umf orn ast ey Rid th & hlan chav w l r ee iff Isl & Bu ies & all on ing Kin d ns a hir te nd ro Ga of e s Yo ss llo wa rks y hir e
Ab
Figure 13 shows that six Scottish local authorities are in the top ten for installed wind capacity. It also shows that the installed wind capacity across the top ten has a high degree of variance compared with that for the solar PV top ten. Aberdeenshire’s installed capacity
September 2011
Number of installations
1,200
Number of installations
Installed capacity (MWe)
3.5
(5.5 MWe) is notably higher than that in the other areas. In second and third place Cardiff and the Orkney Islands have similar levels of installed capacity. However, in Cardiff, this is mainly due to a single 2.3 MWe installation, while in the Orkney Islands almost 70 wind installations are in place.
Installed capacity (MWe)
Figure 12: Top-ten local authorities by installed solar PV capacity
www.aeat.com/microgenerationindex
11
12
The AEA Microgeneration Index
To discuss the AEA Microgeneration Index and the issues it raises or to request a tailor-made report for your organisation, please contact: Colin McNaught Knowledge Leader - Energy t: +44 (0)870 190 6191 m: +44 (0)7968 707649
e: [email protected]
Other contributors to this paper include: Heather Haydock - Director, Energy and Climate Change Erika Rankin - Specialist Consultant, Energy and Climate Change Ben Sang - Specialist Consultant, Energy and Climate Change
www.aeat.com/microgenerationindex
AEA AEA is one of the world’s leaders in energy and environmental consultancy, and information management. The company operates in the UK, Europe and the US advising Governments, the EU and major private sector organisations in energy and climate change, air and environmental quality, risk management, resources and waste, sustainable transport and knowledge transfer. In the UK, AEA has been voted number one consultancy for climate change and renewables by industry consultants in the 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 Edie (Environmental Data Interactive Exchange) Consultancy Surveys.
© AEA Technology plc 2011. 2/118/Aug11
AEA’s Strategic Integrated Renewables Service This report complements AEA’s Strategic Integrated Renewables Service (SIRS) – a comprehensive service that gives an authoritative and independent review of the potential for organisations to deploy renewable energy technologies. SIRS provides decision makers with the critical intelligence required to make informed decisions about installing these technologies For further information and related case studies, please visit: www.aeat.com/cms/strategic-integrated-renewables-service-sirs
Important notice AEA makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, and accepts no liability concerning the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained within. Furthermore, AEA accepts no liability whatsoever to any party for any loss or damage arising from any interpretation, use of or reliance upon any information or view contained within the report. All opinions expressed in the report are based on information available and judgements at the date of the report and are subject to change without notice due to economic, political, or industrial factors. Any guest commentaries in the report reflect the views of the respective authors.
www.aeat.com September 2011
The AEA Microgeneration Index
The AEA Microgeneration Index Tracking the progress of microgeneration in the UK Quarterly Summary Report - Issue 4
September 2011
The AEA Microgeneration Index
Introduction Welcome to the fourth issue of the AEA Microgeneration Index. Reaction to the third issue was, again, very positive. It was presented at a number of conferences, and covered in national and local media. We also had some useful comments about how to develop new ways of presenting data – for which we thank you. In response, we have been piloting geographic information system (GIS) mapping methods – more on this below.
Going for growth
Future growth
Since the first issue of the AEA Microgeneration Index was published, the market has shown continued growth in the capacity and number of installations. While we continue to be surrounded by cautious, or foreboding, economic news, the rate of market growth in microgeneration continues to increase. Since April 2010, growth in total microgeneration capacity has been five fold, with solar photovoltaic (PV) increasing nine fold and wind and hydro doubling. 180 160
Installed capacity (MWe)
2
Micro CHP AD
140
Hydro 120
Wind
100
PV
80 60 40 20 0 Apr-10
‘e’ denotes electrical energy
September 2011
r 4PMBSQBSLT r 4PDJBMIPVTJOHQSPKFDUT r *ODSFBTFEBQQMJDBUJPOTUPCFBUUIF 31 March 2012 deadline. To qualify for the original 30.7 p/kWh Feed-in Tariff (FIT) support level, solar parks with a capacity of 100 kWe or more were required to be connected to the grid by 1 August. A significant number of solar parks have achieved this. Therefore, many tens of MWe capacity will be registered in the coming months, which will change the market pattern. In future, some of these schemes may add extensions of several MWe. However, this route to retain the original FIT support level for extensions is being closed by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), so solar parks are likely to add a spectacular, but short-lived, uplift to the market.
Jun-11
This trend looks set to continue, with installations of small-scale, domestic solar PV driving market growth. In the last issue of the AEA Microgeneration Index, we produced some short-term projections for this segment, suggesting that domestic solar PV would reach between 85 MWe 1 and 103 MWe by the end of June 2011. Instead, it reached 113 MWe and growth rates seem set to increase – at least until March 2012. 1
In addition to the organic growth in individual domestic solar PV, additional growth is expected from:
A number of social housing providers are developing programmes to roll out 100s or 1,000s of installations on the roofs of their housing stock. With typical sizes of 2.5 kWe per system, these programmes could add several MWe of capacity. Unlike the solar parks, these will be developed gradually and will appear as small-scale domestic systems. Finally, the FIT support levels for systems installed after 31 March 2012 are not known, but will be revised downwards by DECC
Quarterly Summary Report - Issue 4
following the comprehensive FIT review, which is due to be published at the end of 2011. It is likely that FIT support levels will fall significantly, leading to a surge in applications to beat the 31 March deadline. Several factors point to this:
A postcode district typically has around 9,000 postal addresses, so population levels are more consistent and comparable than those in local authority areas. As there are over 2,700 postcode districts in the FIT dataset, we have used a GIS map to display the data.
r %&$$IBTBDMFBSSFRVJSFNFOUUPLFFQ within the FIT budget envelope. r 5IF'*5CVEHFUFOWFMPQFJODSFBTFTMJOFBSMZ but the market is growing exponentially. r 5IFDBQJUBMDPTUPGUFDIOPMPHZJTGBMMJOH especially solar PV. r %&$$TSFRVJSFNFOUUPNBJOUBJOUIF cost-effectiveness of the FIT scheme.
The map shows installed capacity in allFIT technologies mapped at postcode district level. It uses ten colour-coded steps to indicate installed capacity.
Mapping the market Installed capacity (kWe) by postcode district 0 1 - 20 21 - 50 51 - 100 101 - 300 301 - 500 501 - 800 801 - 1,000 1,001 - 1,500 1,501 - 2,000
Compared with using local authority areas, the postcode district map shows in more detail where the hot spots are. AEA can produce detailed maps for a specific region, a single technology or a specific FIT support level.
Focus on the UK’s biggest cities In the third issue of the AEA Microgeneration Index, we published a chart showing FIT capacity in the UK’s ten largest cities. During the following three months, growth in these cities has continued (eg capacity in London has increased by 37% and in Glasgow by 131%). However, as some cities start from a low capacity, a better measure is the installed capacity in relation to the population, as shown below.
2,001 - 2,300
In response, we are piloting another way of showing the data on the UK market – at postcode district level. A postcode district is the area defined by the first part of the postcode (eg AL9 or OX11).
September 2011
Installed capacity per 1,000 population (kWe)
Providing data on capacity and installations at a local authority level is a straightforward approach and has a number of advantages. For example, most people know, can quickly find and identify with, the local authority area they live in. However, it has been pointed out that there are wide differences between local authority areas. Some are very rural, having few homes and diverse renewable energy resources; others have a large population and less opportunity for some forms of renewable energy. This is not ideal when comparing areas.
4
3
2
1
0
Lo
B M B S G L Bir L E mi eed lasg heffi radf anc dinb iverp risto s on ng urg ow eld ord he l, C oo ha s h t ity Ci er m ,C l ty of ity of
nd
Hence, Sheffield stands out as the leading city, with Bristol, Leeds and Bradford following. A typical domestic solar PV system has a capacity of around 2.5 kWe, so installation rates are generally well below one system per 1,000 population. The proposed large-scale rollout programmes for solar PV in social housing will tend to be in cities, so
3
4
The AEA Microgeneration Index
installation rates could increase dramatically. For example, phase 2 of the Birmingham Energy Savers initiative aims to install solar PV on 2,000 roofs. On its own, this would increase the installation rate in Birmingham to almost 6 kWe per 1,000 population.
Colin McNaught Knowledge Leader - Energy
Colin has 20 years of experience in the energy field covering economic, technical and policy studies across a wide range of technologies and techniques. His recent work includes assessments of local carbon saving potential for a number of businesses and local authorities, covering microgeneration and energy efficiency opportunities. This includes technical and economic analysis of the opportunities, along with development of delivery mechanisms – to take the potential to reality. Therefore, Colin has a detailed understanding of how the FIT and Renewable Heat Initiative transform the economics of microgeneration. To discuss the AEA Microgeneration Index and the issues it raises, or to request a tailor-made report for your organisation, please contact Colin. t: +44 (0)870 190 6191 m: +44 (0)7968 707 649 e: [email protected]
About the AEA Microgeneration Index The UK FIT scheme was introduced in April 2010. It aims to incentivise the use of smallscale, low carbon electricity generation (under 5 MWe). The FIT scheme, together with the forthcoming Renewable Heat Incentive, has a major role to play in helping the UK make a successful transition to a low carbon economy. The low carbon technologies supported by the FIT scheme include: r r r r r
4PMBS17 8JOE )ZESP "OBFSPCJDEJHFTUJPO "% %PNFTUJDTDBMFNJDSP$)1 VQUPBOE including 2 kWe – pilot for first 30,000 schemes).
Under the scheme, installations receive an attractive ‘cash-back’ payment for every kWh of electricity generated. The tariff support levels depend on the type of technology and the size of the system. The income that can be gained has increased very significantly; small-scale solar PV has increased by 600%. The design of the FIT scheme has set tariffs at a level that should provide a return on investment of between 5% and 8%. Before 1 October 2010, it was possible for existing generators to transfer into the scheme. While generators under 50 kWe were transferred to the FIT scheme, existing installations between 50 kWe and 5 MWe (installed after 15 July 2009) could choose to remain under the existing Renewables Obligation (RO) arrangement. It is envisaged that low carbon technologies, and the incentives that aim to drive their uptake, will play an increasingly important role in helping the UK to meet its carbon targets.
September 2011
Quarterly Summary Report - Issue 4
The fourth issue of the AEA Microgeneration Index uses data available from Ofgem on the number and capacity of systems that have confirmed their registration for the FIT by 30 June 2011. The data are being updated and revised continually, so statistical reports extracted at a later date may not exactly match the totals presented here. For further details on the methods and assumptions used, please visit: www.aeat.com/microgenerationindex/ about
UK overview In the first 15 months to 30 June 2011, 160.96 MWe of low carbon electricity generation has registered under the FIT scheme, with a total of 44,460 separate installations.
Figure 1 shows that the largest proportion of the installed capacity under the FIT scheme is from solar PV, with almost 75% of the capacity. Wind installations have just over 14% of installed capacity and hydro installations make up around 8%. AD accounts for 3.1% of installed capacity and micro CHP installations registered under the scheme contribute only 0.1%. Figure 2: Total cumulative UK installed capacity over the last 15 months 2 160
Micro CHP AD
140
Installed capacity (MWe)
AEA has helped produce the UK renewable energy statistics for DECC and its predecessors for many years. The AEA Microgeneration Index complements this by tracking the progress being made against the expectations for small-scale renewable energy generation. It provides analysis of the microgeneration sector’s performance over time and establishes how well the incentives are working.
Hydro 120
Wind PV
100
80 60 40 20 0
M A M J S M J O N D J F A J r 1 ay un 1 ul 1 ug ep ct 1 ov ec an 1 eb ar pr 1 ay un 1 10 10 11 1 10 0 0 1 0 0 10 10 1 11 11
Ap
Figure 2 shows there has been rapid growth over the first 15 months of the FIT scheme - overall, a five-fold increase in installed capacity. The largest increase in capacity is from solar PV, which increased nine fold. Most solar PV systems do not require planning permission - unlike technologies such as wind, hydro and AD, which do.
Figure 1: Analysis of current UK capacity by technology PV 74.7% 120.16 MWe, 42,590 installations Wind 14.2% 22.90 MWe, 1,490 installations Hydro 7.9% 12.75 MWe, 218 installations AD 3.1% 4.99 MWe, 5 installations 2
Micro CHP 0.1% 0.16 MWe, 157 installations
September 2011
This chart shows the application date for all schemes with confirmed FIT registration by 30 June 2011. Data for schemes that applied before 30 June 2011, but did not have FIT registration confirmed, will appear in future data and charts.
5
The AEA Microgeneration Index
Estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) savings Based on the following estimates of load factor, it is calculated that annual GHG savings (carbon dioxide equivalent) will be about 118,800 tonnes 3.
Technology 4
Load factor (%)
AD
70%
Hydro5
36.7%
Micro CHP
12%
Solar PV6
9.7%
Wind7
5% - 26.9% (depending on scale)
Figure 3: Estimated annual GHG emission savings by technology 60,000
Annual GHG Savings (tonnes CO2 equivalent)
6
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Figure 3 shows that annual GHG savings from solar PV are likely to be greatest, based on the current installed capacity and assumed load factors. Wind, hydro and AD installations will also result in significant annual GHG savings. AD operates at a higher load factor, offering greater GHG savings per kWe installed. 3
Based on grid electricity emission factor 0.54667 tonnes/MWh
4
AEA analysis of AD plants for DECC
5
UK average load factor from Energy Trends analysis
6
DECC analysis for FIT design
7
DECC analysis for FIT design and Energy Trends analysis
September 2011
Solar PV has the largest installed capacity (almost ten times that of hydro) and is estimated to contribute around 47% of the GHG savings. This is lower than the percentage share of installed capacity, which reflects the lower capacity factor of the technology.
Progress against expectations DECC’s response to the consultation on FITs stated ‘It is expected that, by 2020, the scheme will support over 750,000 smallscale, low carbon electricity installations and will have saved 7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide’. 44,460 installations have registered under the FIT scheme in the first 15 months, which is almost 6% of the 2020 expectation. With estimated annual GHG (carbon dioxide equivalent) savings of around 118,800 tonnes per year from installations confirmed in the first 15 months, the FIT scheme has delivered 1.7% of the 2020 expectation.
Quarterly Summary Report - Issue 4
Technology overview This section provides a breakdown of technologies installed by their different FIT support levels.
investment required and the longer timeframe for development. Short-term growth is expected in this tariff support level as several large, MWe-scale solar parks were completed before the start of August 2011 and their details will appear in future market data. The revised tariff support levels for these large schemes will make this a short-term impact on market growth.
Solar photovoltaic
Wind power
Figure 4: Installed solar PV capacity by different FIT support levels
Figure 5: Installed wind capacity by different FIT support levels
45,000 40,000
80
30,000 25,000
60 20,000 40
15,000 10,000
20 5,000 0
0
8 7 6 5 4 3 2
Number of installations
35,000
Installed capacity (MWe)
100
Number of installations
Installed capacity (MWe)
120
1 0
Figure 4 shows that the solar PV capacity registered under the scheme is dominated by installations under 4 kWe that have been retrofitted to buildings. There have been over 38,300 of these small installations, with a combined installed capacity of almost 103 MWe, 99.3% of these installations are in the domestic sector. These systems do not need planning permission and companies offering to provide capital investment for domestic solar PV systems in return for FIT revenue are likely to be boosting the installation rates at this scale. The installed capacity for solar PV new build is negligible in comparison, with only 549 installations contributing 0.98 MWe. This could be attributed to the current economic downturn, stagnant housing market and low levels of new build. Only one solar PV system above 100 kWe has been registered under the scheme – a commercial system with an installed capacity of 200 kWe. This low level of installation is likely to be attributed to the level of capital
September 2011
The installed capacity of wind technology at different scales is much more diverse than that for solar PV, as shown by Figure 5. Wind capacity has doubled since April 2010. The strongest growth is in the 1.5 kWe to 15 kWe tariff support level, increasing almost three fold since April 2010. This also has the largest number of new wind installations 641 installations, with a combined installed capacity of 5.6 MWe. Around 77% of installations at this tariff support level are in the domestic sector and 19% are in the commercial sector. There have been very few installations in the smallest wind tariff support level (under 1.5 kWe) or the 100 kWe to 500 kWe tariff support level. The 500 kWe to 1.5 MWe tariff support level has the highest level of installed capacity, with 7.5 MWe installed across ten installations. However, there is only one installation at the 1.5 MWe to 5 MWe tariff support level – a commercial system with an installed capacity of 2.3 MWe.
7
The AEA Microgeneration Index
Larger wind projects have longer lead times and higher development costs (due to wind speed monitoring, site investigations and planning permission). For schemes in the 500 kWe to 1.5 MWe tariff support level, the FIT is twice the support level to that of the RO. However, for schemes above 1.5 MWe, the FIT is set at a similar support level to that of the RO, which reduces the incentive for these larger schemes to apply for the FIT. 751 installations, with a combined installed capacity of around 4.8 MWe, transferred into the scheme from the RO.
Hydro
Hydro schemes have high development costs, and require detailed feasibility studies to be carried out on the energy produced and the impacts on watercourses. Therefore, larger scale schemes have a better potential to repay this upfront investment.
Figure 6: Installed hydro capacity by different FIT support levels
10
140
120
100 8 80 6 60 4 40 2
0
Number of installations
12
Installed capacity (MWe)
8
20
0
Figure 6 shows a breakdown of different hydro installations under the different tariff support levels. Hydro installed capacity has doubled since April 2010. The 126 schemes that have migrated from the RO comprise the largest number of hydro systems installed. While these are different sizes of installation, they have an average capacity of around 13.73 kWe and a combined capacity of 1.73 MWe. Hydro capacity is greatest in the 100 kWe to 2 MWe tariff support level, where 12 installations, with a combined capacity of 9.8 MWe, have been registered. Since the last AEA Microgeneration Index was published, four new installations have registered at this support level, suggesting this is a key area for growth.
September 2011
Anaerobic digestion From zero installations and capacity at the start of the FIT, there are now five AD plants confirmed under the scheme. One at the under 500 kWe tariff support level and four at the over 500 kWe support level. The installed capacities of these schemes are 170 kWe, 526 kWe, 1.06 MWe, 3.13 MWe and 1.1 MWe. The Fast Track FIT Review has confirmed that higher tariff support levels are now available for ‘farm-scale’ AD systems (ie below 500 kWe). AD systems are very different from many of the other technologies, with added complexity such as the need for planning permission, and to secure contracts for feedstock and outlets for digestate. Only time will tell if the increase in support level is sufficient to encourage more development.
Micro CHP There is only one tariff support level for micro CHP. There are 157 installations, with a total installed capacity of 158 kWe. This is 0.5% of the 30,000 micro CHP schemes allowed under the pilot.
Quarterly Summary Report - Issue 4
Regional overview
Figure 8 shows the split of each technology for the different areas of the UK. Distribution of the technologies can be seen to be influenced by available resource (eg more hydro and wind power installations in Scotland). AD schemes are starting to make an impact in some of the more rural regions.
Figure 7: Total installed capacity by region8 30
9,000
25 7,000 20
6,000 5,000
15 4,000 10
3,000 2,000
Number of installations
Installed capacity (MWe)
8,000
There are significant regional differences. In London, solar PV accounts for 99% of the installed capacity compared with the North East and East Midlands having 83.9% and 77.6% respectively. In Scotland, solar PV installed capacity is just 17.1%. Figure 9: Analysis of regional capacity by domestic, commercial, industrial and community installations
5
30 1,000 0
Figure 7 shows installed capacities for the English regions, and for Scotland and Wales. It should be noted that each region has different population densities, renewable energy resources and land area. Scotland has shown the highest installed capacity, but the South West is gradually catching up. The large solar parks that are now being connected in the South West will have a significant impact on future results. Figure 8: Analysis of regional installed capacity by technology 30
Installed capacity (MWe)
25
20
15
10
25
Installed capacity (MWe)
0
0
September 2011
15
10
5
0
Figure 9 shows the split between the different installation types (domestic, commercial, industrial and community). It shows that the domestic sector has the largest share of installed capacity in most regions. This is driven by the small-scale solar PV uptake – the most active and consistent area of market growth. This pattern is different in Scotland, where the largest installed capacity comes from the commercial sector. This is predominantly from hydro and wind installations. 8
5
20
Several schemes do not have location information in the Ofgem data. Therefore, the region and local authority are unknown. AEA searches out additional data to identify the location of these schemes. This has a focus on identifying the largest projects, which have the greatest impact on the regional and local data. This process reduces the number designated as ‘Unknown’, with those remaining predominantly small-scale solar PV schemes.
9
The AEA Microgeneration Index
Across the UK, it can be seen that there are very low levels of registration of projects at industrial sites. This may reflect the current economic climate, focus on core business activities, requirement for planning permission for larger projects, and issues over ownership of land and buildings.
Figure 10: Summary of microgeneration in East Riding of Yorkshire PV 39.3% 919.01 KWe, 266 installations Wind 15.1% 353.17 KWe, 26 installations
Local authority snapshot
AD 45.5% 1,063.00 KWe, 1 installation
Micro CHP 0.1% 2.97 KWe, 3 installations
Microgeneration Index Figure 11: Top-ten local authorities by total installed capacity
7
1,200
6
With almost 400 local authorities, the amount of data prevents us including detailed breakdowns of capacity for each in this report. Instead, our website (www.aeat.com/ microgenerationindex) provides these data for other local authority areas. To show this, we have included an example of a single local authority dataset. In this issue, we provide a snapshot for East Riding of Yorkshire.
Installed capacity (MWe)
10
1,000
5 800 4 600 3 400 2 200
1
0 Ab
The installed capacity in East Riding of Yorkshire is 2.34 MWe. Just over 1 MWe of the installed capacity in East Riding of Yorkshire is the result of one commercial AD installation. This represents just over 45% of the local installed capacity at the end of the first 15 months of the FIT scheme. Solar PV contributes almost 40% to the installed capacity and wind just over 15%. Most of the 296 installations in East Riding of Yorkshire are in the domestic sector, but there are two community installations – one solar PV and one wind – and 19 commercial installations (four solar PV, 14 wind and one AD).
September 2011
0 Ea Ar Ge Ca Hi Do Ba gh gy st rns rdi nc dli l l Rid l& an ng a ff l &K ee a d Bu ing ster ey ns inr ll hir te os of e s Yo rks hir e
erd
Pe
rth
Co
rnw
Figure 11 shows the top-ten local authorities in terms of installed capacity. Aberdeenshire has the highest at 5.88 MWe, representing 3.7% of the total installed capacity across England, Scotland and Wales. This capacity is across 175 installations, with 5.5 MWe coming from wind turbine installations, predominantly from six 800 kWe turbines. Cornwall, Doncaster and Barnsley are more representative of most local authority areas, where solar PV dominates. Gedling and East Riding of Yorkshire join the top ten based on the AD systems in each of these two areas.
Quarterly Summary Report - Issue 4
3.0
1,000
2.5 800 2.0 600 1.5 400 1.0 200
0.5
0 H K W Is rns the effi ilts le o irkle erefo elw rnw nc h rds y rha eld ire f W es all aste ley hir n H igh m r e, Co atfie t
0 Co
Do
Ba
Ro
Sh
W
un ld ty of
Cornwall has the best solar PV resource in the UK and the highest solar PV capacity,with just over 3 MWe of installed capacity. Figure 12 shows that several local authority areas further north, particularly in the Yorkshire and the Humber region, also have high levels of installed capacity, including Doncaster, Barnsley, Rotherham and Sheffield, which all have between 2 MWe and 2.2 MWe. Several of these authorities have developed local solar PV installation campaigns, leading to higher installation rates. In addition, the Yorkshire and the Humber region has made much progress in developing a local supply chain.
Figure 14: Top-ten local authorities by installed hydro capacity 5.0
25
4.5 4.0
20
3.5 3.0
15
2.5 2.0
10
1.5 1.0
5
0.5 0
0 C D A P G S A L H rth ighl rgyl tirlin ope um wyn owy eed berd s lan frie s g e & K and l & ee s & dd Bu d ns inr hir te Ga os e s llo wa y
Pe
Figure 14 shows that the top ten areas for hydro energy also show significant variation. Installed capacity in Perth & Kinross at 4.4 MWe is notably higher than that in the other areas. Again, Scottish local authorities are prominent, with six reaching the top ten.
Figure 13: Top-ten local authorities by installed wind capacity 90 80 5 70 4
60 50
3 40 2
30 20
1
Number of installations
Installed capacity (MWe)
6
Explore the AEA Microgeneration Index online and register to get the next issue sent direct to your inbox
10 0
0 E D O A C W C Pe Hi y g r erd ard rkn rgyl umf orn ast ey Rid th & hlan chav w l r ee iff Isl & Bu ies & all on ing Kin d ns a hir te nd ro Ga of e s Yo ss llo wa rks y hir e
Ab
Figure 13 shows that six Scottish local authorities are in the top ten for installed wind capacity. It also shows that the installed wind capacity across the top ten has a high degree of variance compared with that for the solar PV top ten. Aberdeenshire’s installed capacity
September 2011
Number of installations
1,200
Number of installations
Installed capacity (MWe)
3.5
(5.5 MWe) is notably higher than that in the other areas. In second and third place Cardiff and the Orkney Islands have similar levels of installed capacity. However, in Cardiff, this is mainly due to a single 2.3 MWe installation, while in the Orkney Islands almost 70 wind installations are in place.
Installed capacity (MWe)
Figure 12: Top-ten local authorities by installed solar PV capacity
www.aeat.com/microgenerationindex
11
12
The AEA Microgeneration Index
To discuss the AEA Microgeneration Index and the issues it raises or to request a tailor-made report for your organisation, please contact: Colin McNaught Knowledge Leader - Energy t: +44 (0)870 190 6191 m: +44 (0)7968 707649
e: [email protected]
Other contributors to this paper include: Heather Haydock - Director, Energy and Climate Change Erika Rankin - Specialist Consultant, Energy and Climate Change Ben Sang - Specialist Consultant, Energy and Climate Change
www.aeat.com/microgenerationindex
AEA AEA is one of the world’s leaders in energy and environmental consultancy, and information management. The company operates in the UK, Europe and the US advising Governments, the EU and major private sector organisations in energy and climate change, air and environmental quality, risk management, resources and waste, sustainable transport and knowledge transfer. In the UK, AEA has been voted number one consultancy for climate change and renewables by industry consultants in the 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 Edie (Environmental Data Interactive Exchange) Consultancy Surveys.
© AEA Technology plc 2011. 2/118/Aug11
AEA’s Strategic Integrated Renewables Service This report complements AEA’s Strategic Integrated Renewables Service (SIRS) – a comprehensive service that gives an authoritative and independent review of the potential for organisations to deploy renewable energy technologies. SIRS provides decision makers with the critical intelligence required to make informed decisions about installing these technologies For further information and related case studies, please visit: www.aeat.com/cms/strategic-integrated-renewables-service-sirs
Important notice AEA makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, and accepts no liability concerning the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained within. Furthermore, AEA accepts no liability whatsoever to any party for any loss or damage arising from any interpretation, use of or reliance upon any information or view contained within the report. All opinions expressed in the report are based on information available and judgements at the date of the report and are subject to change without notice due to economic, political, or industrial factors. Any guest commentaries in the report reflect the views of the respective authors.
www.aeat.com September 2011
