The Outlook for Energy - geeks have feelings
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 William Colton December 11, 2012
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand GDP
Energy Demand
Trillion 2005$
Quadrillion BTUs
125
1250 2010-2040 AAGR %
100
2010-2040 AAGR % Other Non OECD
World 2.8%
75
3.9%
1000
China 5.6%
750
50 1.8%
25
250 United States
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Energy Saved ~500
500 Other OECD
0 2000
World 1.0%
2020
2.3%
2040
0 2000
2020
2040
Electricity Generation Leads Growth Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs
300
2040 2025
250
200
2010
150
100
50
0 Electricity Generation
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Industrial
Transportation
Res/Comm
Transportation
Transportation Demand Sector Demand
Demand by Region
MBDOE
MBDOE
30
75 Rail
60
Marine Aviation
‘40
25 ‘25
20
45 Heavy Duty
15 ‘10
30 10 15 Light Duty
0 2000
5
0 2020
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
2040
AP
NA
Europe
LA
ME
ROW
Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency Annual New Car Sales by Type
Incremental Vehicle Efficiency Gains
Million Cars
Miles per Gallon
150
20
Elec/PHV
47 MPG
Full Hybrid
125
Natural Gas Conv. Diesel
100
Hybrid
15
Conv. Gasoline
75
Vehicle Size
10
Body & Accessories
50 5
Average 27 MPG
25
Powertrain
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0 2010
2020
2030
2040
Electricity generation
Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity Baseload, Startup 2030 2012 cents/kWh
$60/ton of CO2
16
Reliability Cost
12
8
4
$0/ton
0 Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Onshore Wind*
*Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Utility Solar PV*
Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region Electricity Generation
Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
300
120
250
90
200
Non OECD
Renewables
Nuclear
60 150
Gas
30 100 Coal
0 50
0 2000
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Oil
OECD
-30
2020
2040
Non OECD
OECD
Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region Electricity Generation
Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
300
120 Renewables
250
90
Renewables
Nuclear
200
Nuclear
60 150
Gas
Coal
30 100 Coal
0 50
Oil
Gas Oil
0 2000
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
-30
2020
2040
Non OECD
OECD
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs
225
0.8% 2040
200
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
1.7%
175
2010
1.0% 150
-0.1%
125 100 75 2.4%
0.4%
50 25
5.8%
1.8%
Solar / Wind / Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
0 Oil
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
CO2 Emissions Plateau By Region
Emissions Per Capita
Billion Tons
Tons per Person
20
40
30
15
Rest of Non OECD
India
10
20
‘25
China ‘10
‘40
5
10 OECD
0 2000 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0 2020
2040
China
India
U.S.
Europe
Supply
Liquids Supply Supply by Type
Resource*
MBDOE
TBO Biofuels Other Liquids
120
100
6
NGLs
5
Oil Sands
80
Tight Oil
4
Remaining Resource
Deepwater
60
3
40
2 Conventional Crude & Condensate
20
0 2000
Cumulative Production
1
0 2010
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
2020
* Source: IEA
2030
2040
2040
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts North America Gas Supply
Global Gas Supply
BCFD
BCFD
120
600 LNG
100
500
Rest of World Unconventional
80
400
North America Unconventional
Local Unconventional
60
300
40
200
20
100
Rest of World Conventional
Local Conventional
0 2010
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
North America Conventional
2025
2040
0 2010
2025
2040
North America Energy Balance Quadrillion BTUs
50 40
Oil
Net Exports
Net Imports
30 In-country supplies
20 10 0 2010 50
Total Energy Balance 2025
2040
Gas
125 100
Net Exports
Net Imports
Net Exports
40
75
30
50
20
In-country supplies
10 0 2010
In-country supplies
25 0 2010
2025
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
2040
2025
2040
Asia Pacific Energy Balance Quadrillion BTUs
90
Oil
60 Net Imports
30
0 2010 90
In-country supplies
2025
2040
Total Energy Balance 350 300
Gas
Net Imports
250
200 60 150 Net Imports
30
50 In-country supplies
0 2010
In-country supplies
100
2025
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
2040
0 2010
2025
2040
Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Percent Mix of Fuels Percent Other Renewables
100 Nuclear Hydro
80 Gas
60
Oil
40
20
0
Coal
Biomass
1800
1850
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
1900
1950
2000
2040
Conclusions
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand GDP
Energy Demand
Trillion 2005$
Quadrillion BTUs
125
1250 2010-2040 AAGR %
100
2010-2040 AAGR % Other Non OECD
World 2.8%
75
3.9%
1000
China 5.6%
750
50 1.8%
25
250 United States
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Energy Saved ~500
500 Other OECD
0 2000
World 1.0%
2020
2.3%
2040
0 2000
2020
2040
Electricity Generation Leads Growth Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs
300
2040 2025
250
200
2010
150
100
50
0 Electricity Generation
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Industrial
Transportation
Res/Comm
Transportation
Transportation Demand Sector Demand
Demand by Region
MBDOE
MBDOE
30
75 Rail
60
Marine Aviation
‘40
25 ‘25
20
45 Heavy Duty
15 ‘10
30 10 15 Light Duty
0 2000
5
0 2020
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
2040
AP
NA
Europe
LA
ME
ROW
Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency Annual New Car Sales by Type
Incremental Vehicle Efficiency Gains
Million Cars
Miles per Gallon
150
20
Elec/PHV
47 MPG
Full Hybrid
125
Natural Gas Conv. Diesel
100
Hybrid
15
Conv. Gasoline
75
Vehicle Size
10
Body & Accessories
50 5
Average 27 MPG
25
Powertrain
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0 2010
2020
2030
2040
Electricity generation
Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity Baseload, Startup 2030 2012 cents/kWh
$60/ton of CO2
16
Reliability Cost
12
8
4
$0/ton
0 Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Onshore Wind*
*Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Utility Solar PV*
Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region Electricity Generation
Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
300
120
250
90
200
Non OECD
Renewables
Nuclear
60 150
Gas
30 100 Coal
0 50
0 2000
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Oil
OECD
-30
2020
2040
Non OECD
OECD
Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region Electricity Generation
Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
300
120 Renewables
250
90
Renewables
Nuclear
200
Nuclear
60 150
Gas
Coal
30 100 Coal
0 50
Oil
Gas Oil
0 2000
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
-30
2020
2040
Non OECD
OECD
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs
225
0.8% 2040
200
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
1.7%
175
2010
1.0% 150
-0.1%
125 100 75 2.4%
0.4%
50 25
5.8%
1.8%
Solar / Wind / Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
0 Oil
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
CO2 Emissions Plateau By Region
Emissions Per Capita
Billion Tons
Tons per Person
20
40
30
15
Rest of Non OECD
India
10
20
‘25
China ‘10
‘40
5
10 OECD
0 2000 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0 2020
2040
China
India
U.S.
Europe
Supply
Liquids Supply Supply by Type
Resource*
MBDOE
TBO Biofuels Other Liquids
120
100
6
NGLs
5
Oil Sands
80
Tight Oil
4
Remaining Resource
Deepwater
60
3
40
2 Conventional Crude & Condensate
20
0 2000
Cumulative Production
1
0 2010
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
2020
* Source: IEA
2030
2040
2040
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts North America Gas Supply
Global Gas Supply
BCFD
BCFD
120
600 LNG
100
500
Rest of World Unconventional
80
400
North America Unconventional
Local Unconventional
60
300
40
200
20
100
Rest of World Conventional
Local Conventional
0 2010
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
North America Conventional
2025
2040
0 2010
2025
2040
North America Energy Balance Quadrillion BTUs
50 40
Oil
Net Exports
Net Imports
30 In-country supplies
20 10 0 2010 50
Total Energy Balance 2025
2040
Gas
125 100
Net Exports
Net Imports
Net Exports
40
75
30
50
20
In-country supplies
10 0 2010
In-country supplies
25 0 2010
2025
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
2040
2025
2040
Asia Pacific Energy Balance Quadrillion BTUs
90
Oil
60 Net Imports
30
0 2010 90
In-country supplies
2025
2040
Total Energy Balance 350 300
Gas
Net Imports
250
200 60 150 Net Imports
30
50 In-country supplies
0 2010
In-country supplies
100
2025
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
2040
0 2010
2025
2040
Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Percent Mix of Fuels Percent Other Renewables
100 Nuclear Hydro
80 Gas
60
Oil
40
20
0
Coal
Biomass
1800
1850
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
1900
1950
2000
2040
Conclusions
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
