The Outlook for Energy
The Outlook for Energy a view to 2030 July 2011
ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
1
Global Demand By Sector
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs 700
700
Res/Comm
600
Renewables
600
Biomass 500
Nuclear
400
400
Coal
300
300
500
Industrial
Power Generation
Gas
200
200
100
100
Oil
Transportation 0 1980
2005
0 1980
2030
2
2005
2030
Asia Pacific OECD Energy Demand By Sector
By Region
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
40
40
New Zealand
Res/Comm Australia Industrial
30
30
South Korea 20
20
Power Generation 10
10
Japan
Transportation 0 1980
2005
0 1980
2030
ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
3
2005
2030
Power Generation Mix Evolves Global Capacity Utilized
By Generation
GW
k TWh
800
35
Wind
700
30
Nuclear 600
25
Gas 500 20
400
Coal
15
300
Solar
10
200
Nuclear Wind & Solar
5
100
Other Renewables 0 1980
0 '05
'30
'05
'30
'05
'30
4
Oil 2005
2030
Renewables Gain Share United States
Europe
Asia Pacific
Percent of TWhr
Percent of TWhr
35
35
Percent of TWhr 35
30
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
15
10
10
10
5
5
5
0
0
0
Solar Geothermal Biomass/Other Wind Hydro
25 20
'05
'10
'15
'20
'25
'30
'05
'10
'15
5 *Biomass includes Municipal Solid Waste
'20
'25
'30
'05
'10
'15
'20
'25
'30
Asia Pacific OECD Energy Demand & Supply By Sector
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
40
40
Renewables Biomass
Res/Comm
Nuclear Industrial
30
30
Coal 20
20
Gas Power Generation 10
10
Oil Transportation 0 1980
2005
0 1980
2030
ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
6
2005
2030
Economic Choices for U.S. Power Baseload, Startup 2025 2010 cents/kWh 20
PV
$60/ton CO2
15
Thermal 10
5
$0/ton CO2 0 Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Wind
Coal-CCS
ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
7
Gas-CCS
GeoThermal
Solar
A Decade of Growth – 2000 107 MTA LNG production in 2000
Depicts Flows > 1 MTA only Source: WoodMackenzie
8
A Decade of Growth – 2010 221 MTA in 2010
Depicts Flows > 1 MTA only Source: WoodMackenzie
9
Gas Resources in 2000 Combined resources of 145 tcm are equal to 60 years of current production
Conventional
Source: IEA 1999 World Outlook
10
Gas Resources in 2010 Combined resources of 785 tcm are equal to 250 years of current production
Conventional Unconventional
Source: IEA 2009 World Outlook
11
Economic and Energy Evolution Global Demand By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 700
Other Renewables 600
Nuclear Hydro
500
Gas 400
300
Oil
200
Coal
100
Biomass 0
1800
1850
1900
1950 12
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil
2000
Algae Biofuels
Source: ExxonMobil
13
ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
1
Global Demand By Sector
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs 700
700
Res/Comm
600
Renewables
600
Biomass 500
Nuclear
400
400
Coal
300
300
500
Industrial
Power Generation
Gas
200
200
100
100
Oil
Transportation 0 1980
2005
0 1980
2030
2
2005
2030
Asia Pacific OECD Energy Demand By Sector
By Region
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
40
40
New Zealand
Res/Comm Australia Industrial
30
30
South Korea 20
20
Power Generation 10
10
Japan
Transportation 0 1980
2005
0 1980
2030
ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
3
2005
2030
Power Generation Mix Evolves Global Capacity Utilized
By Generation
GW
k TWh
800
35
Wind
700
30
Nuclear 600
25
Gas 500 20
400
Coal
15
300
Solar
10
200
Nuclear Wind & Solar
5
100
Other Renewables 0 1980
0 '05
'30
'05
'30
'05
'30
4
Oil 2005
2030
Renewables Gain Share United States
Europe
Asia Pacific
Percent of TWhr
Percent of TWhr
35
35
Percent of TWhr 35
30
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
15
10
10
10
5
5
5
0
0
0
Solar Geothermal Biomass/Other Wind Hydro
25 20
'05
'10
'15
'20
'25
'30
'05
'10
'15
5 *Biomass includes Municipal Solid Waste
'20
'25
'30
'05
'10
'15
'20
'25
'30
Asia Pacific OECD Energy Demand & Supply By Sector
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
40
40
Renewables Biomass
Res/Comm
Nuclear Industrial
30
30
Coal 20
20
Gas Power Generation 10
10
Oil Transportation 0 1980
2005
0 1980
2030
ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
6
2005
2030
Economic Choices for U.S. Power Baseload, Startup 2025 2010 cents/kWh 20
PV
$60/ton CO2
15
Thermal 10
5
$0/ton CO2 0 Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Wind
Coal-CCS
ExxonMobil 2010 Energy Outlook
7
Gas-CCS
GeoThermal
Solar
A Decade of Growth – 2000 107 MTA LNG production in 2000
Depicts Flows > 1 MTA only Source: WoodMackenzie
8
A Decade of Growth – 2010 221 MTA in 2010
Depicts Flows > 1 MTA only Source: WoodMackenzie
9
Gas Resources in 2000 Combined resources of 145 tcm are equal to 60 years of current production
Conventional
Source: IEA 1999 World Outlook
10
Gas Resources in 2010 Combined resources of 785 tcm are equal to 250 years of current production
Conventional Unconventional
Source: IEA 2009 World Outlook
11
Economic and Energy Evolution Global Demand By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 700
Other Renewables 600
Nuclear Hydro
500
Gas 400
300
Oil
200
Coal
100
Biomass 0
1800
1850
1900
1950 12
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil
2000
Algae Biofuels
Source: ExxonMobil
13
