THE RESIDENTIAL HOUSING MARKET
English Partnerships Policy and Economics Briefing HOUSING STATISTICS BRIEFING May 2005
This Housing Statistics Briefing has been produced by the Economics team to inform EP staff of current trends in housing. This briefing is produced quarterly and the next issue will be in August 2005.
Contents
Page
1. The Housing Market – An Overview
1
2. House Prices
1
3. Mortgage Lending
4
4. Interest Rates
5
5. First-Time Buyers
5
6. Buy-to-Let
7
7. Housing Affordability
7
8. Housebuilding
8
9. Household Projections
10
10. Land Values
11
11. Brownfield Land
12
12. Housing Statistics Sources
13
ENGLISH PARTNERSHIPS HOUSING STATISTICS BRIEFING - MAY 2005 This Housing Statistics Briefing has been produced by the Economics team to inform EP staff of current trends in housing. This briefing is produced quarterly and the next issue will be in August 2005.
1. The Housing Market – An Overview House price growth remained subdued over the past quarter with several house price indices showing house prices to be falling across parts of England. Mortgage lending has also declined year-on-year demonstrating that housing market growth has probably passed its peak. The slowdown in the housing market has been caused by a lack of affordable property, particularly in London and the south of England, and interest rates having risen five times since November 2003. Affordability constraints are hitting first-time buyers particularly hard and consequently first-time buyer numbers as a percentage of the market have decreased sharply over the past five years from 47% in 1999 to 29% in 2004 according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. The number of house sales has fallen substantially over the past year in England and Wales according to the Land Registry from 243,914 in the first quarter of 2004 to 159,116 in the first quarter of 2005 – a fall of 35%.
2. House Prices Halifax UK house prices rose by just 0.5% in the first quarter of 2005, according to the Halifax. The largest quarterly rises in the UK were outside England with rises of 6.1% in Scotland, 3.1% in Northern Ireland and 2.4% in Wales as shown in the chart below. Quarterly % Change in House Prices by Region in Q1 2005 (Seasonally Adjusted) 7% 6%
6.1%
5% 4%
3.1% 2.4%
Source: Halifax
1
South West
East Anglia
North
South East
East Midlands
Yorks & Humber
Wales
-2%
Northern Ireland
-1%
Scotland
0%
0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% -0.6% -0.9% -1.2% Greater London
1.3%
North West
1%
West Midlands
1.7% 1.6%
2%
UK
3%
In England three regions saw a fall in prices over the past quarter: the South West (1.2%), East Anglia (-0.9%) and the North (-0.6%). Small house price rises were seen over the quarter in Greater London (0.1%), the North West (0.2%) and the West Midlands (0.3%). Three English regions saw house price rises of over 1% in the first quarter of 2005: the South East (1.3%), East Midlands (1.6%) and Yorkshire and the Humber (1.7%). There have been major differentials in house price rises between the north and the south of England over the past year as shown in the chart below with prices rising much more rapidly in the north compared to the south. House prices have risen by 15.5% over the past year in Yorkshire and the Humber and by 15.3% in the North West compared to just 1.1% in Greater London and 4.6% in the South East. House prices have risen most in the UK over the past year in Northern Ireland (25.0%) and Scotland (22.9%). Annual % Change in House Prices by Region in Q1 2005 30% 25%
25.0%
22.9%
20% 15.5% 15.3%
15%
14.2%
12.2%
10%
9.9% 9.9% 9.7%
8.4% 5.6% 4.6%
5%
1.1% Greater London
South East
South West
East Anglia
UK
Wales
West Midlands
East Midlands
North
North West
Yorks & Humber
Scotland
Northern Ireland
0%
Source: Halifax
According to the Halifax there has been virtually no change in UK house prices since September 2004. In the UK house prices increased by 0.5% in March, offsetting February’s 0.5% fall. The Halifax House Price Index is based on mortgage offers approved by Halifax. The index is very up-to-date as based on mortgage offers, which occur early in the house buying process. The index contains a history of UK and regional data going back to 1983. The limitations of the index are, however, that it only covers Halifax’s mortgage customers and as it is based on offers it will include deals that fail to complete. Nationwide According to Nationwide, the price of the average house fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in March nationally – the biggest month fall since June 1995. Nationwide
2
believes the housing market is experiencing a soft landing and is keeping its national 2005 housing forecast at 2%. It believes by quarter four 2005 house prices will have increased by 2% over the previous year in each English region apart from London and Outer Metropolitan where it believes prices will have risen by 3% annually. Nationwide’s house price index is based on mortgage offers approved by Nationwide. The index is very up-to-date as based on mortgage offers, which occur early in the house buying process. However the index only covers Nationwide’s mortgage customers and as it is based on offers it will include deals that fail to complete. RICS The March 2005 RICS Housing Market Survey showed that 37% more surveyors reported falls in house prices than rises in England and Wales over the past three months. March saw a slight fall in property stock on surveyor’s books, after a large increase last month, though the property supply is still 23% higher than this time last year. Surveyors envisage further price falls. The RICS Housing Market Survey is a survey of around 300 surveyors’ view of the housing market and provides a confidence survey of the housing market rather than actual house price data. Hometrack Hometrack’s March survey showed that house prices in England and Wales fell by 0.1% in March, the ninth consecutive month that prices have fallen. However, the fall of 0.1% is smaller than those of the past six months and Hometrack believes that house price deflation is ending with house price rises continuing for the rest of the year. The average property price is now £162,300, down from a peak of £167,700 in June 2004. 22 counties saw price rises or remained static and 35 saw price falls in March. The largest rises were in Central London & City (0.8%), Derbyshire (0.8%), North West London (0.8%), North Wales (0.4%) and East Riding of Yorkshire (0.3%). The counties reporting the largest price falls were Northumberland (-1.0%), South Yorkshire (-0.9%), Cambridgeshire (-0.9%), North Lincolnshire (-0.8%) and Leicestershire (-0.8%). Of the cities, 28 saw price rises or remained static whereas 26 saw price falls. The top five were Derby (1.8%), Bradford (1.0%), Hull (0.7%), Portsmouth (0.4%) and Manchester (0.3%). The cities reporting the worst falls were Lincoln (-2.0%), Cambridge (-2.0%), Gloucester (-1.9%), Plymouth (-1.8%) and Leicester (-1.5%). Hometrack is confident that house prices will start rising over the next few months and has raised its 2005 full year house price inflation forecast from 0% to 3%. Hometrack’s March survey showed that average house prices remained unchanged in London, after falling for eight months. The average London house price now stands at £262,400, down from a peak of £275,900 in June 2004. Hometrack believes the London market is set to spring back into price rises this Easter and has adjusted its 2005 London forecast from –5% to 0%. The Hometrack Index is based on monthly reports from estate agents.
3
Land Registry According to the Land Registry, house prices have risen across all regions of England and Wales over the past year. Average house prices have risen most in the North in the past year with prices rising by 17% and have risen slowest in the South East having risen by 8% over the past year. The number of house sales has fallen substantially over the past year in England and Wales from 243,914 in the first quarter of 2004 to 159,116 in the first quarter of 2005 – a fall of 35%. The table below shows house prices in the first quarter of 2005 and year-on year change by region and property type. House Prices in Q1 2005 and House Price Changes Q1 2004 to Q1 2005
Region North North West Yorks & Humber Wales W Midlands E Midlands East Anglia South West South East Gr. London England & Wales
Detached Semi Terraced Flat Average Price Price Rise Price Rise Price Rise Price Rise Price Rise £224,698 19% £123,870 18% £86,916 22% £95,163 15% £119,581 17% £261,818 18% £136,855 18% £83,540 20% £126,509 13% £127,754 15% £233,002 £203,388 £256,656 £222,576 £238,519 £292,479 £362,567 £619,825
18% 17% 12% 14% 12% 10% 8% 20%
£127,106 £124,341 £140,569 £128,974 £152,292 £180,350 £209,807 £320,512
17% 19% 12% 14% 11% 13% 9% 11%
£92,394 £96,352 £112,062 £106,700 £130,182 £156,917 £174,710 £305,872
22% 18% 14% 16% 12% 12% 10% 11%
£120,581 £125,955 £116,364 £112,808 £122,027 £145,168 £144,991 £239,694
4% 18% 10% 11% 23% 10% 10% 6%
£130,328 £133,630 £151,537 £149,487 £172,075 £196,819 £221,055 £288,507
15% 16% 10% 13% 11% 10% 8% 10%
£288,791 13% £169,196 12% £141,728 11% £169,604 6% £183,486 10%
Source: Land Registry’s Residential Property Price Report January to March 2005
The Land Registry’s Residential Property Price Report provides the most comprehensive house price data available, as it includes all property sales in England and Wales including cash sales. The data is, however, not as good an indicator of the state of the current property market as other house prices surveys as it deals with completions, the end of the property transaction, and is slower to be published.
3. Mortgage Lending British Bankers Association The number of loans approved for house purchase fell by 33% in the year to March 2005 according to the British Bankers’ Association (BBA). 65,635 loans were approved for house purchase in March 2005 compared to 97,852 in March 2004. The value of all loans approved fell by 25% in the year to March 2005. £8.0 billion worth of loans were approved for house purchase in March 2005, down from £10.7 billion in March 2004. Loans approved for house purchase is subject to seasonal variation, for example, the mortgage market is generally always weak in December, and therefore changes need to be compared year-on-year. The chart below shows the year-on-year percentage change in the number of loans approved for house purchase over the past 4
year. The chart shows a marked downturn in the number of loans approved in the last six months of 2004 and the first three months of 2005 compared to a year earlier. Year-on-Year % Change in No. of Loans Approved for House Purchase 20% 12%
14%
10%
6%
Feb-05
Mar-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
Aug-04
-20%
May-04
-10%
Apr-04
0%
-35%
-33%
-22% -22%
-30%
-30% -35%
-40%
-38% -39% -41%
-50%
Source: British Bankers Association
Council of Mortgage Lenders According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, lending for house purchase amounted to £8 billion in March 2005, up from £7 billion in February, a 14% increase but down 30% from £11.5 billion in March 2004. There were 69,000 loans for house purchase in March 2005, up from 62,000 in February but down 38% from 111,000 in March 2004. Bank of England According to the Bank of England, the number of new mortgages approved for house purchases, seasonally adjusted, in March 2005 was 91,000, up from 86,000 in February 2005.
4. Interest Rates The Bank of England last raised base rates on 5 August 2004 to 4.75%. Base rates are still very low historically; despite having risen slightly from a 48 year low of 3.5% in July 2003. In the last housing boom, by contrast, base rates peaked at just below 15% in October 1989.
5. First-Time Buyers The percentage of first-time buyers taking out mortgages relative to the rest of the market rose remained very low at 29% in 2004, the same as in 2003, according the Council of Mortgage Lenders. The percentage of first-time buyers taking out mortgages relative to the rest of the market has fallen sharply over the past five years
5
from 47% in 1999 to 29% in 2004. The following chart shows the percentage of loans going to first-time buyers between 1990 and 2004. First-Time Buyers - Percentage of Loans 1990 to 2004 60% 52% 50%
51%
55% 55% 53%
46%
48%
45%
48%
47%
44% 43% 38%
40%
29% 29%
30% 20% 10% 0%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders.
First-time buyers have fallen as house prices become increasingly unaffordable and due to the increasing deposits needed to afford a property as mortgage lenders will generally lend to a maximum of 4 times a single income or 3.5 times joint income. Mortgage payments as a percentage of income have, however, not risen that much over the past few years, as shown in the following chart, as historically low interest rates have kept mortgage payments down.
25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15% 10%
10% 5%
5%
0%
0%
First-Time Buyer: Total Mortgage Payment as a Percentage of Income First-Time Buyer: Deposit as a Percentage of Price
Source: ODPM Housing Statistics Table 539 based on Survey of Mortgage Lenders.
6
Deposit as % of Price
30%
19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03
Mortgage as % of Income
Affordability: First-Time Buyers Mortgage Payment as % of Income and Deposit as % of Purchase Price
6. Buy-to-Let Buy-to-let lending has risen rapidly since 1998 according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) as shown in the table below. Buy-to-let now makes up 6% of the total outstanding mortgage market with 526,200 mortgages outstanding at the end of 2004 worth £52.2 billion. Buy-to-let mortgages outstanding increased by 34% in value in 2004. At £21.8 billion, total new residential investment lending for 2004 was 14% up on 2003. However, new lending in the second half of 2004 was an estimated £9.8 billion, 18% lower than the £12 billion in the first half of 2004 and 16% lower than the £1.6 billion in the second half of 2003. CML expects this trend of slower growth in buy-to-let to continue throughout 2005. Buy-to-Let Summary 1998 1999 Loans outstanding at end of period Value, £m 2,000 5,400 Number 28,700 73,200 Gross new advances in period Value, £m 3,100 Number 44,400 Average loan 69,800 size, £
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
9,100 14,700 120,300 185,000
24,200 275,500
39,000 417,500
52,200 526,200
3,900 48,400 80,600
12,200 130,000 93,800
19,200 187,600 102,300
21,800 217,700 100,100
6,900 72,200 95,600
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders.
Since 1999 the increase in buy-to-let activity has coincided with a sharp fall in firsttime buyers. However, the fall off in first-time buyers, from 47% of the market in 1999 to 29% in 2004, is much larger than the rise in buy-to-let investors and is thus not responsible for all the displacement. Furthermore, buy-to-let is often in London and the South East and is not an important factor in many local housing markets. Other issues such as affordability are the main cause of the fall in first-time buyers.
7. Housing Affordability Joseph Rowntree Foundation London, the South West and the South East are the least affordable regions for young homebuyers according to figures produced for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation by Professor Steve Wilcox, published in October 2004. The report compares earnings among households under 40 with the average price in each district for a 2 or 3 bedroom home for the final quarter of 2003 from the Survey of Mortgage Lenders. The research identifies nine districts where a home costs more than six times the average annual income of households with earners in their 20s or 30s. These are Christchurch, East Devon, North Cornwall, Torridge and West Somerset in the South West, the London boroughs of Westminster and Brent and the West Sussex districts of Chichester and Adur in the South East. In another 45 areas young households need at least five times their yearly earnings to afford a starter home. Most of these are located in London, the South West, South East or Eastern regions, but there are three other rural areas further north popular with tourists and second-home owners: South Lakeland in Cumbria, the Derbyshire Dales and Alnwick in Northumberland. 7
In England there is an average ratio of 4.11 to 1 between prices for 2 and 3 bedroom homes and gross earnings for working households aged 20 to 39. In London the average house price to household earnings ratio is 4.69 to 1 with the highest ratios in Westminster, Brent, Waltham Forest, Southwark and Ealing. In the South West the average house price to household earnings ratio is 4.66 to 1 with the highest ratios in West Somerset, Christchurch, North Cornwall, Torridge and East Devon. In the South East the average house price to household earnings ratio is 4.61 to 1 with the highest ratios in Adur, Chichester, Lewes, Eastbourne and Mole Valley. In the Eastern region the average house price to household earnings ratio is 4.27 to 1 with the highest ratios in Cambridge, Hertsmere, Broxbourne, Epping Forest and Castle Point.
8. Housebuilding According to the ODPM, there were 40,278 housing starts in the fourth quarter of 2004 in England, on an unadjusted basis, a 13% rise on the same period in 2003. Of the 40,278 housing starts, 36,184 units were started by private enterprise and 4,094 by Registered Social Landlords (RSLs). No units were started by Local Authorities in the fourth quarter of 2004. The 4,094 units started by RSLs was the highest number for any quarter in the past five years. The chart below shows housebuilding starts from quarter one of 2000 to quarter four of 2004, on a seasonally adjusted basis, by private enterprise, RSLs and by Local Authorities. Housebuilding Starts (Seasonally Adjusted)
Q
1 Q 200 2 0 Q 200 3 0 Q 200 4 0 Q 200 1 0 Q 200 2 1 Q 200 3 1 Q 200 4 1 Q 200 1 1 Q 200 2 2 Q 200 3 2 Q 200 4 2 Q 200 1 2 Q 200 2 3 Q 200 3 3 Q 200 4 3 Q 200 1 3 Q 200 2 4 Q 200 3 4 Q 200 4 4 20 04
50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
Private Enterprise
RSLs
Local Authorities
Source: ODPM House Building: October to December Quarter 2004 Statistical Release
There were 42,100 housing completions in the fourth quarter of 2004 in England, on an unadjusted basis, similar to the same period in 2003. Of the 42,100 housing completions, 36,981 units were started by private enterprise, 5,094 by RSLs and 25 by Local Authorities. The 5,094 units built by RSLs was the highest number for any quarter in the past five years.
8
The following chart shows housebuilding completions from quarter one of 2000 to quarter four of 2004, on a seasonally adjusted basis, by private enterprise, RSLs and by Local Authorities. Housebuilding Completions (Seasonally Adjusted) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
Q
1 Q 200 2 0 Q 200 3 0 Q 200 4 0 Q 200 1 0 Q 200 2 1 Q 200 3 1 Q 200 4 1 Q 200 1 1 Q 200 2 2 Q 200 3 2 Q 200 4 2 Q 200 1 2 Q 200 2 3 Q 200 3 3 Q 200 4 3 Q 200 1 3 Q 200 2 4 Q 200 3 4 Q 200 4 4 20 04
0
Private Enterprise
RSLs
Local Authorities
Source: ODPM House Building: October to December Quarter 2004 Statistical Release
NHBC registered housebuilders, who construct around 85% of the UK’s new homes, started 147,100 new homes in England in 2004, up from 143,500 homes in 2003, as shown in the chart below. In the first quarter of 2005, 37,400 new homes were started in England by NHBC registered housebuilders, slightly down from 38,000 in the same quarter of 2004. NHBC Housing Starts (000s) in England 1991 to 2004 150
160 134
140 120
122 112
123
131
124
137
144
147
125 121 123
108
100 80 60 40 20 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: NHBC New House-Building Statistics Quarter 1 2005
NHBC housing starts have grown rapidly in the past year in the North East (20% rise), Greater London (14% rise) and the Eastern region (9% rise) and also rose in the
9
West Midlands (6%) and South East (2%). Conversely, housing starts fell sharply over the past year in Merseyside (21% fall) and also fell in the East Midlands (-7%), North West (-4%), Yorkshire and Humber (-3%) and South West (-2%). The chart below shows the change in regional NHBC housing starts in England in the past year. % Change in Regional NHBC Housing Starts Q1 2004 to Q1 2005 20% 20%
14%
15%
9%
10%
6% 2%
5% 0%
-2%
-5%
-3%
-4%
-10%
-7%
-15% -20%
-21%
G
N
or th Ea re at st er Lo nd on Ea st W er es n tM id la nd So s ut h Ea So st ut h Yo W rk es s t & H um be N r or th W Ea es st t M id la nd M s er se ys id e
-25%
Source: NHBC New House-Building Statistics Quarter 1 2005
9. Household Projections The ODPM published 2002-based interim projections in September 2004, which show that 189,000 additional households a year will be formed between 2001 and 2021 compared with 150,000 in the previous 1996-based projections. 55% of the additional households are projected in London, the South East and the East. The figures assume demographic trends will continue and housing supply is unconstrained and imply housing supply will need to rise more than previously thought. ODPM Interim 2002-Based Household Projections (Thousands)
England North East North West Yorks & Humber East Midlands West Midlands East of England London South East South West
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
20,750 1,073 2,822 2,085 1,735 2,158 2,259 3,170 3,348 2,098
21,658 1,087 2,899 2,145 1,815 2,231 2,367 3,414 3,498 2,202
22,639 1,104 2,981 2,216 1,896 2,305 2,492 3,653 3,672 2,320
23,641 1,122 3,065 2,286 1,978 2,382 2,625 3,891 3,855 2,439
24,522 1,132 3,131 2,341 2,052 2,445 2,750 4,097 4,025 2,549
10
Rise 2001-21 3,772 59 309 256 317 287 491 927 677 451
Average Annual Rise 188.6 3.0 15.5 12.8 15.9 14.4 24.6 46.4 33.9 22.6
10. Land Values Residential land values have risen more than 1,000% in the last 20 years from £194,000 per hectare in Spring 1994 to £2,290,000 per hectare in July 2004. The chart below shows the change in value of residential building land in England and Wales excluding London between 1983 and 2004. Residential Building Land Values 1983-2004 £2,500,000
£s per hectare
£2,000,000 £1,500,000 £1,000,000 £500,000
Au t8 3 Sp r8 5 Au t8 6 Sp r8 8 Au t8 9 Sp r9 1 Au t9 2 Sp r9 4 Au t9 5 Sp r9 7 Au t9 8 Sp r0 0 Au t0 1 Sp r0 3 Ju l-0 4
£0
Source: Property Market Report, July 2004, Valuation Office.
Residential housing demand has been one of the main factors determining the change in residential land values over the past 20 years as shown in the chart below. However, over the past 20 years residential land values have risen at more than double the rate of residential house price rises with residential house prices having risen by almost 500% whereas residential land values have risen by over 1,000%.
160
1400
140
1200
120
1000
100
800
80
600
60
400
40
Land Value Index
House Price Index
House Price Index and Residential Land Values
200
20 0
0 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 House Prices
Land Values
Sources: ODPM Table 594 Mix-Adjusted House Price Index from Survey of Mortgage Lenders and Valuation Office Property Market Report July 2004. House price figures refer to England and Wales and land value figures refer to England and Wales excluding London.
11
11. Brownfield Land The Government’s target that 60% of new dwellings should be built on brownfield land has been exceeded. 67% on new dwellings were built on previously developed land including conversions in England on a provisional estimate according to Land Use Change in England to 2003 (ODPM October 2004). The following table shows the percentage of new dwellings built on previously developed land in each region between 1993 and 2003. New Dwellings Built on Previously Developed Land by Region 1993 to 2003 (%) Region
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003¹
Government Office Region³ North East 42 52 50 53 North West 62 57 59 65 Yorkshire & 51 50 49 51 the Humber E Midlands 35 37 38 37 W Midlands 56 49 53 50 East of 52 56 56 53 England London 87 83 84 82 South East 53 48 54 56 South West 36 35 37 35 England 53 51 54 54 (excl. conversions) England 56 54 57 57 (incl. conversions) Regional Planning Guidance Region Rest of 55 54 58 59 South East RPG 9 Area 63 60 66 65
Future Target²
46 58 49
50 62 51
40 60 50
47 67 57
45 70 55
57 73 62
54 72 64
60 70 60
37 56 53
35 54 54
37 54 58
42 55 53
47 60 58
53 67 58
53 72 59
60 76 n/a
89 54 34 53
92 56 37 55
89 61 39 56
89 62 44 58
90 65 48 60
90 66 49 64
93 62 56 65
n/a n/a 50 -
56
58
59
61
63
67
67
60
57
59
64
62
66
67
63
60
67
68
72
70
72
73
72
n/a
Source: Land Use Change in England to 2003: Additional Tables, ODPM, October 2004. Information relates to map changes recorded by Ordnance Survey as at the end of June 2004, where the year of change has been estimated by surveyors from available information. Notes: ¹ 2003 figures are provisional. ² Targets are for various future dates set in Regional Planning Guidance. Regional Planning Guidance currently covers East Anglia and the Rest of the South East. This is due to change within the next year to the East of England and the South East. ³ Conversions are excluded regionally from figures achieved but are included in targets. Rest of South East comprises South East, Bedfordshire, Essex and Hertfordshire. RPG 9 Area is Rest of South East and London.
12
12. Housing Statistics Sources Subject House Prices
Mortgage Lending
Interest Rates First-Time Buyers
Buy-to-Let Housing Affordability Housebuilding
Household Projections Land Values Brownfield Land
Source Halifax Hometrack Land Registry Nationwide ODPM
Link www.hbosplc.com/economy/housingresearch.asp www.hometrack.co.uk/index.cfm?fuseaction=news.news www.landreg.gov.uk/ www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/ www.odpm.gov.uk/housingstatistics then select ‘Live Tables’ then ‘Housing Market’ RICS www.rics.org/Property/Residentialproperty/Residentialprop ertymarket/ Rightmove www.rightmove.co.uk Bank of England www.bankofengland.co.uk British Bankers www.bba.org.uk Association Council of www.cml.org.uk Mortgage Lenders Bank of England www.bankofengland.co.uk Council of www.cml.org.uk Mortgage Lenders ODPM www.odpm.gov.uk/housingstatistics then select ‘Live Tables’ then ‘Housing Market’ (Table 539) Council of www.cml.org.uk Mortgage Lenders Joseph Rowntree www.jrf.org.uk/pressroom/releases/061004.asp Foundation NHBC www.nhbc.co.uk (New House-Building Statistics Reports are by subscription) ODPM www.odpm.gov.uk/housingstatistics then select ‘Live Tables’ then ‘Housebuilding’ ODPM www.odpm.gov.uk/pns/DisplayPN.cgi?pn_id=2004_0206 Valuation Office NLUD ODPM/Ordnance Survey
www.voa.gov.uk/publications/property_market_report/inde x.htm www.odpm.gov.uk/planning then select ‘planning statistics’ www.odpm.gov.uk/planning then select ‘planning statistics’ then ‘Land Use Change Statistics’
Justine Lovatt Economist – Corporate Strategy Division English Partnerships 110 Buckingham Palace Road London SW1W 9SA Tel: 020 7881 1637 E-mail: [email protected] Other Publications from the Policy & Economics Teams include: • • •
Housing & Planning in the Regions – April 2005 The Housebuilding Market – March 2005 Policy & Projects Update 13
This Housing Statistics Briefing has been produced by the Economics team to inform EP staff of current trends in housing. This briefing is produced quarterly and the next issue will be in August 2005.
Contents
Page
1. The Housing Market – An Overview
1
2. House Prices
1
3. Mortgage Lending
4
4. Interest Rates
5
5. First-Time Buyers
5
6. Buy-to-Let
7
7. Housing Affordability
7
8. Housebuilding
8
9. Household Projections
10
10. Land Values
11
11. Brownfield Land
12
12. Housing Statistics Sources
13
ENGLISH PARTNERSHIPS HOUSING STATISTICS BRIEFING - MAY 2005 This Housing Statistics Briefing has been produced by the Economics team to inform EP staff of current trends in housing. This briefing is produced quarterly and the next issue will be in August 2005.
1. The Housing Market – An Overview House price growth remained subdued over the past quarter with several house price indices showing house prices to be falling across parts of England. Mortgage lending has also declined year-on-year demonstrating that housing market growth has probably passed its peak. The slowdown in the housing market has been caused by a lack of affordable property, particularly in London and the south of England, and interest rates having risen five times since November 2003. Affordability constraints are hitting first-time buyers particularly hard and consequently first-time buyer numbers as a percentage of the market have decreased sharply over the past five years from 47% in 1999 to 29% in 2004 according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. The number of house sales has fallen substantially over the past year in England and Wales according to the Land Registry from 243,914 in the first quarter of 2004 to 159,116 in the first quarter of 2005 – a fall of 35%.
2. House Prices Halifax UK house prices rose by just 0.5% in the first quarter of 2005, according to the Halifax. The largest quarterly rises in the UK were outside England with rises of 6.1% in Scotland, 3.1% in Northern Ireland and 2.4% in Wales as shown in the chart below. Quarterly % Change in House Prices by Region in Q1 2005 (Seasonally Adjusted) 7% 6%
6.1%
5% 4%
3.1% 2.4%
Source: Halifax
1
South West
East Anglia
North
South East
East Midlands
Yorks & Humber
Wales
-2%
Northern Ireland
-1%
Scotland
0%
0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% -0.6% -0.9% -1.2% Greater London
1.3%
North West
1%
West Midlands
1.7% 1.6%
2%
UK
3%
In England three regions saw a fall in prices over the past quarter: the South West (1.2%), East Anglia (-0.9%) and the North (-0.6%). Small house price rises were seen over the quarter in Greater London (0.1%), the North West (0.2%) and the West Midlands (0.3%). Three English regions saw house price rises of over 1% in the first quarter of 2005: the South East (1.3%), East Midlands (1.6%) and Yorkshire and the Humber (1.7%). There have been major differentials in house price rises between the north and the south of England over the past year as shown in the chart below with prices rising much more rapidly in the north compared to the south. House prices have risen by 15.5% over the past year in Yorkshire and the Humber and by 15.3% in the North West compared to just 1.1% in Greater London and 4.6% in the South East. House prices have risen most in the UK over the past year in Northern Ireland (25.0%) and Scotland (22.9%). Annual % Change in House Prices by Region in Q1 2005 30% 25%
25.0%
22.9%
20% 15.5% 15.3%
15%
14.2%
12.2%
10%
9.9% 9.9% 9.7%
8.4% 5.6% 4.6%
5%
1.1% Greater London
South East
South West
East Anglia
UK
Wales
West Midlands
East Midlands
North
North West
Yorks & Humber
Scotland
Northern Ireland
0%
Source: Halifax
According to the Halifax there has been virtually no change in UK house prices since September 2004. In the UK house prices increased by 0.5% in March, offsetting February’s 0.5% fall. The Halifax House Price Index is based on mortgage offers approved by Halifax. The index is very up-to-date as based on mortgage offers, which occur early in the house buying process. The index contains a history of UK and regional data going back to 1983. The limitations of the index are, however, that it only covers Halifax’s mortgage customers and as it is based on offers it will include deals that fail to complete. Nationwide According to Nationwide, the price of the average house fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in March nationally – the biggest month fall since June 1995. Nationwide
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believes the housing market is experiencing a soft landing and is keeping its national 2005 housing forecast at 2%. It believes by quarter four 2005 house prices will have increased by 2% over the previous year in each English region apart from London and Outer Metropolitan where it believes prices will have risen by 3% annually. Nationwide’s house price index is based on mortgage offers approved by Nationwide. The index is very up-to-date as based on mortgage offers, which occur early in the house buying process. However the index only covers Nationwide’s mortgage customers and as it is based on offers it will include deals that fail to complete. RICS The March 2005 RICS Housing Market Survey showed that 37% more surveyors reported falls in house prices than rises in England and Wales over the past three months. March saw a slight fall in property stock on surveyor’s books, after a large increase last month, though the property supply is still 23% higher than this time last year. Surveyors envisage further price falls. The RICS Housing Market Survey is a survey of around 300 surveyors’ view of the housing market and provides a confidence survey of the housing market rather than actual house price data. Hometrack Hometrack’s March survey showed that house prices in England and Wales fell by 0.1% in March, the ninth consecutive month that prices have fallen. However, the fall of 0.1% is smaller than those of the past six months and Hometrack believes that house price deflation is ending with house price rises continuing for the rest of the year. The average property price is now £162,300, down from a peak of £167,700 in June 2004. 22 counties saw price rises or remained static and 35 saw price falls in March. The largest rises were in Central London & City (0.8%), Derbyshire (0.8%), North West London (0.8%), North Wales (0.4%) and East Riding of Yorkshire (0.3%). The counties reporting the largest price falls were Northumberland (-1.0%), South Yorkshire (-0.9%), Cambridgeshire (-0.9%), North Lincolnshire (-0.8%) and Leicestershire (-0.8%). Of the cities, 28 saw price rises or remained static whereas 26 saw price falls. The top five were Derby (1.8%), Bradford (1.0%), Hull (0.7%), Portsmouth (0.4%) and Manchester (0.3%). The cities reporting the worst falls were Lincoln (-2.0%), Cambridge (-2.0%), Gloucester (-1.9%), Plymouth (-1.8%) and Leicester (-1.5%). Hometrack is confident that house prices will start rising over the next few months and has raised its 2005 full year house price inflation forecast from 0% to 3%. Hometrack’s March survey showed that average house prices remained unchanged in London, after falling for eight months. The average London house price now stands at £262,400, down from a peak of £275,900 in June 2004. Hometrack believes the London market is set to spring back into price rises this Easter and has adjusted its 2005 London forecast from –5% to 0%. The Hometrack Index is based on monthly reports from estate agents.
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Land Registry According to the Land Registry, house prices have risen across all regions of England and Wales over the past year. Average house prices have risen most in the North in the past year with prices rising by 17% and have risen slowest in the South East having risen by 8% over the past year. The number of house sales has fallen substantially over the past year in England and Wales from 243,914 in the first quarter of 2004 to 159,116 in the first quarter of 2005 – a fall of 35%. The table below shows house prices in the first quarter of 2005 and year-on year change by region and property type. House Prices in Q1 2005 and House Price Changes Q1 2004 to Q1 2005
Region North North West Yorks & Humber Wales W Midlands E Midlands East Anglia South West South East Gr. London England & Wales
Detached Semi Terraced Flat Average Price Price Rise Price Rise Price Rise Price Rise Price Rise £224,698 19% £123,870 18% £86,916 22% £95,163 15% £119,581 17% £261,818 18% £136,855 18% £83,540 20% £126,509 13% £127,754 15% £233,002 £203,388 £256,656 £222,576 £238,519 £292,479 £362,567 £619,825
18% 17% 12% 14% 12% 10% 8% 20%
£127,106 £124,341 £140,569 £128,974 £152,292 £180,350 £209,807 £320,512
17% 19% 12% 14% 11% 13% 9% 11%
£92,394 £96,352 £112,062 £106,700 £130,182 £156,917 £174,710 £305,872
22% 18% 14% 16% 12% 12% 10% 11%
£120,581 £125,955 £116,364 £112,808 £122,027 £145,168 £144,991 £239,694
4% 18% 10% 11% 23% 10% 10% 6%
£130,328 £133,630 £151,537 £149,487 £172,075 £196,819 £221,055 £288,507
15% 16% 10% 13% 11% 10% 8% 10%
£288,791 13% £169,196 12% £141,728 11% £169,604 6% £183,486 10%
Source: Land Registry’s Residential Property Price Report January to March 2005
The Land Registry’s Residential Property Price Report provides the most comprehensive house price data available, as it includes all property sales in England and Wales including cash sales. The data is, however, not as good an indicator of the state of the current property market as other house prices surveys as it deals with completions, the end of the property transaction, and is slower to be published.
3. Mortgage Lending British Bankers Association The number of loans approved for house purchase fell by 33% in the year to March 2005 according to the British Bankers’ Association (BBA). 65,635 loans were approved for house purchase in March 2005 compared to 97,852 in March 2004. The value of all loans approved fell by 25% in the year to March 2005. £8.0 billion worth of loans were approved for house purchase in March 2005, down from £10.7 billion in March 2004. Loans approved for house purchase is subject to seasonal variation, for example, the mortgage market is generally always weak in December, and therefore changes need to be compared year-on-year. The chart below shows the year-on-year percentage change in the number of loans approved for house purchase over the past 4
year. The chart shows a marked downturn in the number of loans approved in the last six months of 2004 and the first three months of 2005 compared to a year earlier. Year-on-Year % Change in No. of Loans Approved for House Purchase 20% 12%
14%
10%
6%
Feb-05
Mar-05
Jan-05
Dec-04
Nov-04
Oct-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
Aug-04
-20%
May-04
-10%
Apr-04
0%
-35%
-33%
-22% -22%
-30%
-30% -35%
-40%
-38% -39% -41%
-50%
Source: British Bankers Association
Council of Mortgage Lenders According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, lending for house purchase amounted to £8 billion in March 2005, up from £7 billion in February, a 14% increase but down 30% from £11.5 billion in March 2004. There were 69,000 loans for house purchase in March 2005, up from 62,000 in February but down 38% from 111,000 in March 2004. Bank of England According to the Bank of England, the number of new mortgages approved for house purchases, seasonally adjusted, in March 2005 was 91,000, up from 86,000 in February 2005.
4. Interest Rates The Bank of England last raised base rates on 5 August 2004 to 4.75%. Base rates are still very low historically; despite having risen slightly from a 48 year low of 3.5% in July 2003. In the last housing boom, by contrast, base rates peaked at just below 15% in October 1989.
5. First-Time Buyers The percentage of first-time buyers taking out mortgages relative to the rest of the market rose remained very low at 29% in 2004, the same as in 2003, according the Council of Mortgage Lenders. The percentage of first-time buyers taking out mortgages relative to the rest of the market has fallen sharply over the past five years
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from 47% in 1999 to 29% in 2004. The following chart shows the percentage of loans going to first-time buyers between 1990 and 2004. First-Time Buyers - Percentage of Loans 1990 to 2004 60% 52% 50%
51%
55% 55% 53%
46%
48%
45%
48%
47%
44% 43% 38%
40%
29% 29%
30% 20% 10% 0%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders.
First-time buyers have fallen as house prices become increasingly unaffordable and due to the increasing deposits needed to afford a property as mortgage lenders will generally lend to a maximum of 4 times a single income or 3.5 times joint income. Mortgage payments as a percentage of income have, however, not risen that much over the past few years, as shown in the following chart, as historically low interest rates have kept mortgage payments down.
25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15% 10%
10% 5%
5%
0%
0%
First-Time Buyer: Total Mortgage Payment as a Percentage of Income First-Time Buyer: Deposit as a Percentage of Price
Source: ODPM Housing Statistics Table 539 based on Survey of Mortgage Lenders.
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Deposit as % of Price
30%
19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03
Mortgage as % of Income
Affordability: First-Time Buyers Mortgage Payment as % of Income and Deposit as % of Purchase Price
6. Buy-to-Let Buy-to-let lending has risen rapidly since 1998 according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) as shown in the table below. Buy-to-let now makes up 6% of the total outstanding mortgage market with 526,200 mortgages outstanding at the end of 2004 worth £52.2 billion. Buy-to-let mortgages outstanding increased by 34% in value in 2004. At £21.8 billion, total new residential investment lending for 2004 was 14% up on 2003. However, new lending in the second half of 2004 was an estimated £9.8 billion, 18% lower than the £12 billion in the first half of 2004 and 16% lower than the £1.6 billion in the second half of 2003. CML expects this trend of slower growth in buy-to-let to continue throughout 2005. Buy-to-Let Summary 1998 1999 Loans outstanding at end of period Value, £m 2,000 5,400 Number 28,700 73,200 Gross new advances in period Value, £m 3,100 Number 44,400 Average loan 69,800 size, £
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
9,100 14,700 120,300 185,000
24,200 275,500
39,000 417,500
52,200 526,200
3,900 48,400 80,600
12,200 130,000 93,800
19,200 187,600 102,300
21,800 217,700 100,100
6,900 72,200 95,600
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders.
Since 1999 the increase in buy-to-let activity has coincided with a sharp fall in firsttime buyers. However, the fall off in first-time buyers, from 47% of the market in 1999 to 29% in 2004, is much larger than the rise in buy-to-let investors and is thus not responsible for all the displacement. Furthermore, buy-to-let is often in London and the South East and is not an important factor in many local housing markets. Other issues such as affordability are the main cause of the fall in first-time buyers.
7. Housing Affordability Joseph Rowntree Foundation London, the South West and the South East are the least affordable regions for young homebuyers according to figures produced for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation by Professor Steve Wilcox, published in October 2004. The report compares earnings among households under 40 with the average price in each district for a 2 or 3 bedroom home for the final quarter of 2003 from the Survey of Mortgage Lenders. The research identifies nine districts where a home costs more than six times the average annual income of households with earners in their 20s or 30s. These are Christchurch, East Devon, North Cornwall, Torridge and West Somerset in the South West, the London boroughs of Westminster and Brent and the West Sussex districts of Chichester and Adur in the South East. In another 45 areas young households need at least five times their yearly earnings to afford a starter home. Most of these are located in London, the South West, South East or Eastern regions, but there are three other rural areas further north popular with tourists and second-home owners: South Lakeland in Cumbria, the Derbyshire Dales and Alnwick in Northumberland. 7
In England there is an average ratio of 4.11 to 1 between prices for 2 and 3 bedroom homes and gross earnings for working households aged 20 to 39. In London the average house price to household earnings ratio is 4.69 to 1 with the highest ratios in Westminster, Brent, Waltham Forest, Southwark and Ealing. In the South West the average house price to household earnings ratio is 4.66 to 1 with the highest ratios in West Somerset, Christchurch, North Cornwall, Torridge and East Devon. In the South East the average house price to household earnings ratio is 4.61 to 1 with the highest ratios in Adur, Chichester, Lewes, Eastbourne and Mole Valley. In the Eastern region the average house price to household earnings ratio is 4.27 to 1 with the highest ratios in Cambridge, Hertsmere, Broxbourne, Epping Forest and Castle Point.
8. Housebuilding According to the ODPM, there were 40,278 housing starts in the fourth quarter of 2004 in England, on an unadjusted basis, a 13% rise on the same period in 2003. Of the 40,278 housing starts, 36,184 units were started by private enterprise and 4,094 by Registered Social Landlords (RSLs). No units were started by Local Authorities in the fourth quarter of 2004. The 4,094 units started by RSLs was the highest number for any quarter in the past five years. The chart below shows housebuilding starts from quarter one of 2000 to quarter four of 2004, on a seasonally adjusted basis, by private enterprise, RSLs and by Local Authorities. Housebuilding Starts (Seasonally Adjusted)
Q
1 Q 200 2 0 Q 200 3 0 Q 200 4 0 Q 200 1 0 Q 200 2 1 Q 200 3 1 Q 200 4 1 Q 200 1 1 Q 200 2 2 Q 200 3 2 Q 200 4 2 Q 200 1 2 Q 200 2 3 Q 200 3 3 Q 200 4 3 Q 200 1 3 Q 200 2 4 Q 200 3 4 Q 200 4 4 20 04
50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
Private Enterprise
RSLs
Local Authorities
Source: ODPM House Building: October to December Quarter 2004 Statistical Release
There were 42,100 housing completions in the fourth quarter of 2004 in England, on an unadjusted basis, similar to the same period in 2003. Of the 42,100 housing completions, 36,981 units were started by private enterprise, 5,094 by RSLs and 25 by Local Authorities. The 5,094 units built by RSLs was the highest number for any quarter in the past five years.
8
The following chart shows housebuilding completions from quarter one of 2000 to quarter four of 2004, on a seasonally adjusted basis, by private enterprise, RSLs and by Local Authorities. Housebuilding Completions (Seasonally Adjusted) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
Q
1 Q 200 2 0 Q 200 3 0 Q 200 4 0 Q 200 1 0 Q 200 2 1 Q 200 3 1 Q 200 4 1 Q 200 1 1 Q 200 2 2 Q 200 3 2 Q 200 4 2 Q 200 1 2 Q 200 2 3 Q 200 3 3 Q 200 4 3 Q 200 1 3 Q 200 2 4 Q 200 3 4 Q 200 4 4 20 04
0
Private Enterprise
RSLs
Local Authorities
Source: ODPM House Building: October to December Quarter 2004 Statistical Release
NHBC registered housebuilders, who construct around 85% of the UK’s new homes, started 147,100 new homes in England in 2004, up from 143,500 homes in 2003, as shown in the chart below. In the first quarter of 2005, 37,400 new homes were started in England by NHBC registered housebuilders, slightly down from 38,000 in the same quarter of 2004. NHBC Housing Starts (000s) in England 1991 to 2004 150
160 134
140 120
122 112
123
131
124
137
144
147
125 121 123
108
100 80 60 40 20 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: NHBC New House-Building Statistics Quarter 1 2005
NHBC housing starts have grown rapidly in the past year in the North East (20% rise), Greater London (14% rise) and the Eastern region (9% rise) and also rose in the
9
West Midlands (6%) and South East (2%). Conversely, housing starts fell sharply over the past year in Merseyside (21% fall) and also fell in the East Midlands (-7%), North West (-4%), Yorkshire and Humber (-3%) and South West (-2%). The chart below shows the change in regional NHBC housing starts in England in the past year. % Change in Regional NHBC Housing Starts Q1 2004 to Q1 2005 20% 20%
14%
15%
9%
10%
6% 2%
5% 0%
-2%
-5%
-3%
-4%
-10%
-7%
-15% -20%
-21%
G
N
or th Ea re at st er Lo nd on Ea st W er es n tM id la nd So s ut h Ea So st ut h Yo W rk es s t & H um be N r or th W Ea es st t M id la nd M s er se ys id e
-25%
Source: NHBC New House-Building Statistics Quarter 1 2005
9. Household Projections The ODPM published 2002-based interim projections in September 2004, which show that 189,000 additional households a year will be formed between 2001 and 2021 compared with 150,000 in the previous 1996-based projections. 55% of the additional households are projected in London, the South East and the East. The figures assume demographic trends will continue and housing supply is unconstrained and imply housing supply will need to rise more than previously thought. ODPM Interim 2002-Based Household Projections (Thousands)
England North East North West Yorks & Humber East Midlands West Midlands East of England London South East South West
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
20,750 1,073 2,822 2,085 1,735 2,158 2,259 3,170 3,348 2,098
21,658 1,087 2,899 2,145 1,815 2,231 2,367 3,414 3,498 2,202
22,639 1,104 2,981 2,216 1,896 2,305 2,492 3,653 3,672 2,320
23,641 1,122 3,065 2,286 1,978 2,382 2,625 3,891 3,855 2,439
24,522 1,132 3,131 2,341 2,052 2,445 2,750 4,097 4,025 2,549
10
Rise 2001-21 3,772 59 309 256 317 287 491 927 677 451
Average Annual Rise 188.6 3.0 15.5 12.8 15.9 14.4 24.6 46.4 33.9 22.6
10. Land Values Residential land values have risen more than 1,000% in the last 20 years from £194,000 per hectare in Spring 1994 to £2,290,000 per hectare in July 2004. The chart below shows the change in value of residential building land in England and Wales excluding London between 1983 and 2004. Residential Building Land Values 1983-2004 £2,500,000
£s per hectare
£2,000,000 £1,500,000 £1,000,000 £500,000
Au t8 3 Sp r8 5 Au t8 6 Sp r8 8 Au t8 9 Sp r9 1 Au t9 2 Sp r9 4 Au t9 5 Sp r9 7 Au t9 8 Sp r0 0 Au t0 1 Sp r0 3 Ju l-0 4
£0
Source: Property Market Report, July 2004, Valuation Office.
Residential housing demand has been one of the main factors determining the change in residential land values over the past 20 years as shown in the chart below. However, over the past 20 years residential land values have risen at more than double the rate of residential house price rises with residential house prices having risen by almost 500% whereas residential land values have risen by over 1,000%.
160
1400
140
1200
120
1000
100
800
80
600
60
400
40
Land Value Index
House Price Index
House Price Index and Residential Land Values
200
20 0
0 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 House Prices
Land Values
Sources: ODPM Table 594 Mix-Adjusted House Price Index from Survey of Mortgage Lenders and Valuation Office Property Market Report July 2004. House price figures refer to England and Wales and land value figures refer to England and Wales excluding London.
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11. Brownfield Land The Government’s target that 60% of new dwellings should be built on brownfield land has been exceeded. 67% on new dwellings were built on previously developed land including conversions in England on a provisional estimate according to Land Use Change in England to 2003 (ODPM October 2004). The following table shows the percentage of new dwellings built on previously developed land in each region between 1993 and 2003. New Dwellings Built on Previously Developed Land by Region 1993 to 2003 (%) Region
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003¹
Government Office Region³ North East 42 52 50 53 North West 62 57 59 65 Yorkshire & 51 50 49 51 the Humber E Midlands 35 37 38 37 W Midlands 56 49 53 50 East of 52 56 56 53 England London 87 83 84 82 South East 53 48 54 56 South West 36 35 37 35 England 53 51 54 54 (excl. conversions) England 56 54 57 57 (incl. conversions) Regional Planning Guidance Region Rest of 55 54 58 59 South East RPG 9 Area 63 60 66 65
Future Target²
46 58 49
50 62 51
40 60 50
47 67 57
45 70 55
57 73 62
54 72 64
60 70 60
37 56 53
35 54 54
37 54 58
42 55 53
47 60 58
53 67 58
53 72 59
60 76 n/a
89 54 34 53
92 56 37 55
89 61 39 56
89 62 44 58
90 65 48 60
90 66 49 64
93 62 56 65
n/a n/a 50 -
56
58
59
61
63
67
67
60
57
59
64
62
66
67
63
60
67
68
72
70
72
73
72
n/a
Source: Land Use Change in England to 2003: Additional Tables, ODPM, October 2004. Information relates to map changes recorded by Ordnance Survey as at the end of June 2004, where the year of change has been estimated by surveyors from available information. Notes: ¹ 2003 figures are provisional. ² Targets are for various future dates set in Regional Planning Guidance. Regional Planning Guidance currently covers East Anglia and the Rest of the South East. This is due to change within the next year to the East of England and the South East. ³ Conversions are excluded regionally from figures achieved but are included in targets. Rest of South East comprises South East, Bedfordshire, Essex and Hertfordshire. RPG 9 Area is Rest of South East and London.
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12. Housing Statistics Sources Subject House Prices
Mortgage Lending
Interest Rates First-Time Buyers
Buy-to-Let Housing Affordability Housebuilding
Household Projections Land Values Brownfield Land
Source Halifax Hometrack Land Registry Nationwide ODPM
Link www.hbosplc.com/economy/housingresearch.asp www.hometrack.co.uk/index.cfm?fuseaction=news.news www.landreg.gov.uk/ www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/ www.odpm.gov.uk/housingstatistics then select ‘Live Tables’ then ‘Housing Market’ RICS www.rics.org/Property/Residentialproperty/Residentialprop ertymarket/ Rightmove www.rightmove.co.uk Bank of England www.bankofengland.co.uk British Bankers www.bba.org.uk Association Council of www.cml.org.uk Mortgage Lenders Bank of England www.bankofengland.co.uk Council of www.cml.org.uk Mortgage Lenders ODPM www.odpm.gov.uk/housingstatistics then select ‘Live Tables’ then ‘Housing Market’ (Table 539) Council of www.cml.org.uk Mortgage Lenders Joseph Rowntree www.jrf.org.uk/pressroom/releases/061004.asp Foundation NHBC www.nhbc.co.uk (New House-Building Statistics Reports are by subscription) ODPM www.odpm.gov.uk/housingstatistics then select ‘Live Tables’ then ‘Housebuilding’ ODPM www.odpm.gov.uk/pns/DisplayPN.cgi?pn_id=2004_0206 Valuation Office NLUD ODPM/Ordnance Survey
www.voa.gov.uk/publications/property_market_report/inde x.htm www.odpm.gov.uk/planning then select ‘planning statistics’ www.odpm.gov.uk/planning then select ‘planning statistics’ then ‘Land Use Change Statistics’
Justine Lovatt Economist – Corporate Strategy Division English Partnerships 110 Buckingham Palace Road London SW1W 9SA Tel: 020 7881 1637 E-mail: [email protected] Other Publications from the Policy & Economics Teams include: • • •
Housing & Planning in the Regions – April 2005 The Housebuilding Market – March 2005 Policy & Projects Update 13
