STP&I Underperform (17E TP Bt10.60)
Company Update
Close Bt10.60
Construction Services January 20, 2017
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged Weak 4Q16E earnings; 2016‐17E earnings revised down Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.497
0.903
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐41.2%
‐15.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
STPI.BK/STPI TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,625.18
Par (Bt)
0.25
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
17.00/487.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
30.00/6.25
52 week High / Low (Bt)
13.40/7.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
13,517.00 3.55
Estimated free float (%)
75.71
Beta
1.65
URL
www.stpi.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
n.a.
Delay in new orders to put 2017E earnings under pressure The earnings outlook for 4Q16 is gloomy and no big new projects have been added to boost STPI’s earnings prospects. Meanwhile, the firm’s expansion to the renewable energy business will have to wait until 2018E. Therefore, we have revised down our 2016‐17E earnings forecasts, with a new target price of Bt10.60/share (14x PER). Our “Underperform” rating is maintained. Delay in big new projects to put 2017E earnings under pressure The project, i.e., Ichthys, has already been completed and STPI has been in talks with the project owner regarding additional project value and expenses, with a conclusion unlikely to have been reached in 4Q16. Therefore, STPI had work on hand valued at merely Bt600mn (Algerian Qatari Steel in Algeria during October 2016 to June 2017). Meanwhile, for the new project bidding on Pacific Northwest LNG in Canada, the construction design will have to be readjusted even though the project has already passed the environmental assessment while the project owner has yet to select the main contractor (EPC). Therefore, STPI has not received any new projects yet. Although STPI will be subcontracted by the EPC in 2017E, we do not expect the firm to realize revenue in 2017E and this will put 2017E earnings under pressure. 4Q16 earnings to have weakened Due to small projects on hand and the expected failure to have reached an agreement on a cost adjustment for the Ichthys project in 4Q16, we expect SPTI to have realized small revenue while it had to book fixed costs in the quarter. Therefore, the firm is expected to post a core profit of merely Bt16mn (Bt0.01/share), which should have come from other revenue (which helped to offset the operating loss). Cut 2016‐17E earnings forecasts to reflect delays in new projects We have revised down our 2016E core profit projection by 47% to Bt1.43bn to reflect the delay in the conclusion on the additional value of the Ichthys project as well as the delay in future projects. Accordingly, we have revised down our 2017E earnings forecast by 13% to Bt1.2bn. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
Revenues (Btmn)
5,669
11,737
13,362
9,550
5,500
Net profit (Btmn)
1,909
2,627
2,595
1,426
1,234
EPS (Bt)
1.29
1.78
1.60
0.88
0.76
Norm. EPS (Bt)
1.29
1.78
1.60
0.88
0.76
82%
38%
‐10%
‐45%
‐13%
Dividend (Bt)
0.34
0.53
0.37
0.26
0.23
BV (Bt)
4.00
5.45
6.09
6.96
7.72
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
PER (x)
8.13
5.90
6.58
11.97
13.83
PBV (x)
2.62
1.93
1.72
1.51
1.36
Dividend yield (%)
3.2%
5.0%
3.5%
2.5%
2.2%
ROE (%)
37%
38%
29%
13%
10%
Norm. EPS growth (%)
Phornsri Laysanitsaerekul Analyst , no 17621
FY Ended 31 Dec
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6258
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1 : 4Q16E earnings preview Consolidated Profit and Loss FY Dec (Btm)
YTD 4Q15
Contract Revenue
3Q16
4Q16E
%YoY %QoQ
2015
2016E
%YoY
(% of 2016E)
3,958
1,659
154
‐10%
‐58%
13,362
9,550
‐29%
98%
Cost of contract work
(2,693)
(1,508)
(134)
84%
‐54%
(9,431)
(7,942)
‐16%
98%
Gross profit
1,265
151
20
‐85%
‐75%
3,931
1,609
‐59%
99%
(42)
(41)
‐41%
2%
‐89%
‐81%
SG&A
(32)
(204)
76%
‐61%
101% 68%
1,233
108
(21)
Interest income
20
19
26
3%
7%
88
80
‐9%
Other income
24
45
20
112%
13%
113
160
42%
88%
Interest Expense
(2)
(1)
(2)
‐32%
‐11%
0%
55%
172
23
‐83%
‐72%
‐57%
99%
(33)
(7)
‐60%
‐69%
‐47%
97%
139
16
‐85%
‐73%
1,426
‐59%
99%
0
nm
nm
1,275
Tax expense
(196)
Recurring profit
1,079
(4) 3,924 (478) 3,447
1,441
‐18%
Operating profit
EBT
3,727
(167)
(4) 1,678 (252)
Extra items
(307)
(17)
0
nm
nm
Net profit
773
121
16
‐79%
‐79%
2,595
1,426
‐45%
89%
EPS (Bt)
0.48
0.07
0.01
‐79%
‐79%
1.60
0.88
‐45%
89%
32.0%
9.1%
12.9%
29.4%
16.8%
Gross margin
(852)
Operating margin
31.2%
6.5%
‐13.7%
27.9%
15.1%
Norm. profit margin
27.3%
8.4%
10.1%
25.8%
14.9%
Net profit margin
19.5%
7.3%
10.1%
19.4%
14.9%
Effective tax rate
15.3%
19.2%
32.3%
12.2%
15.0%
Source: SET and KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: 2016‐17E earnings revision
Btm Revenue Gross margin Norm. profit
Previous Current 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E 11,050 6,250 9,550 5,500 29.0% 25.0% 16.8% 25.0% 2,666 1,416 1,426 1,234
% Change 2016E 2017E ‐14% ‐12% ‐42% 0% ‐47% ‐13%
Source: KT Z Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, CRANE. KT ZMICO is a co underwriter of RPH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068