Weekly Update
Frazier’s Strategic Allocator Avoid the big downturns and profit from the upturns
Weekly Market Commentary & Portfolio Update Edition 66 As of May 31, 2014
Frazier's Buy-Sell Index and the Performance of the S&P 500 Index
Frazier's Buy-Sell Index is derived from the readings on his Tactical Asset & Sector Allocation Model 60%
SELL
40%
20%
1,700
10%
S
0%
1,500
S
-10%
S B
-30%
S
B
1,300 S
S
-40%
S
S
B
-20%
B B
1,100
BUY
-50% -60%
900
B
-70% -80% May-99
B Buy Signals: Triggered when Frazier's Buy-Sell Index falls to or below -40%
May-01
May-03
May-05
Buy Index
May-07
May-09
Sell Index
May-11
700 May-13
S&P 500 Index
S&P 500 Index vs. Consumer Confidence Index (Sources of Data: Standard & Poor's; The Conference Board) As of June 27, 2014
160
Consumer Confidence Index
The latest readings on numerous economic indicators suggest that stock prices, in general, will continue to trend higher during the weeks ahead. For example, The Conference Board reported last Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index, which measures the economic sentiment of U.S. households, as well as their outlook for the U.S. economy six months into the future, rose during June to its highest level since January 2008. Separately, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported last Thursday that during May U.S. households continued to increase their spending on various types of household goods and services, albeit at a slower pace during each of the prior two months.
1,900 B
30% Frazier's Buy-Sell Index
Stock market indices for most regions of the world were somewhat mixed last week, with the S&P 500 Index closing on June 27 down a mere 0.1%, while Japan’s NIKKEI 225 Index closed last Friday down 0.5% and China’s Shanghai composite Index closed the week up 0.5%, as compared to the prior week’s close. Meanwhile, India’s BSE Sensex Index ended the week essentially unchanged, while Brazil’s Bovespa Index declined 2.7%.
2,100
Sell Signals: Triggered when Frazier's Buy-Sell Index rises to or above 40%
50%
S&P 500 Index
Outlook Remains Positive; Continue to Hold All of Our Recommended Securities
June 29, 2014
2,100
140
1,900
120
1,700
100
1,500
80
1,300
60
1,100
40
900 © Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
20 Jun-99
Jun-02
Jun-05
S&P 500 Index
Volume 3
700 Jun-08
Consumer Confidence Index
Jun-11
Jun-14
S&P 500 Index
Some more good news regarding the U.S. housing market was also announced last week, with the National Association of Realtors (“NAR”) reporting on June 23 that sales of previously-owned homes rose by 4.9% during May, and the Commerce Department reporting the following day that sales of newly-constructed homes rose by 18.6% during May, as compared to the prior month. With my research indicating that the NAR will announce on June 30 that contracts signed by prospective homebuyers to purchase a home within the next two months also rose during May, I’m projecting that sales of homes continued to rise during June. That would be a very positive development for the U.S. economy and U.S. stock prices because the economy and stocks tend to move in the same direction as home sales. Separately, my research indicates that the U.S. employment situation also improved during June. We’ll know later this week whether or not that was the case, with the U.S. Department of Labor scheduled to issue employment data for the month of June this coming Wednesday. As a result of the positive factors and developments mentioned above, I advise you to continue to hold all of the securities that compose our model portfolios. Week Ended June 29, 2014
© Frazier’s Strategic Allocator. All rights reserved.
Page 1
Model Portfolios Frazier's Core Investment Portfolio As of June 29, 2014
Inception Date: September 18, 2007
Ticker Initial Security Name Symbol Entry Date Ford Motor Co. F 01/02/14 Select Sector SPDR-Technology XLK 01/16/14 iShares Trust Dow Jones U.S. IYJ 12/19/13 Industrial Sector Index Fund (IYJ) Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF VBK 12/19/13 SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT 12/19/13 SPDR S&P Bank ETF KBE 12/19/13 JPMorgan Chase JPM 01/16/14 Bank of America BAC 01/16/14 Cash or Money Market Securities *
Avg. Entry Price $15.43 $35.99
Dividends $0.13 $0.18
Current Price $17.28 $38.34
% of Port. 5% 10%
Current Advice Hold Buy
$99.60
$0.35
$103.79
15%
Buy
$123.63 $85.65 $33.40 $59.01 $17.13
$0.78 $0.62 $0.37 $0.38 $0.02
$126.85 $86.55 $33.36 $57.53 $15.33
20% 20% 20% 5% 5%
Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
2007 **
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
YTD
Since Inception
Frazier's Core Investment Portfolio
5.8%
-10.6%
18.4%
1.4%
3.7%
17.2%
3.4%
1.4%
44.5%
S&P 500 Index
0.0%
-37.0%
26.5%
15.1%
2.1%
16.0%
32.4%
7.2%
54.1%
Total Returns
Percent of Closed Recommendations that Have Generated Gains:
66%
* The percentage shown in the table above for the amount of our model portfolio that is allocated to cash or money market securities represents the percentage of the total value of our model portfolio that was allocated to cash as of the date of this portfolio table. The percentage shown for each of the securities outlined in the table above represents the percentage of the total value of the portfolio that was allocated to the security on the date that the security was recommended for purchase. ** Year 2007 performance results are for the period from the inception of Frazier’s Core Investment Portfolio on September 18, 2007 to December 31, 2007. (Note: From September 18, 2007 to January 24, 2012, Frazier’s Core Investment Portfolio was known as The ETF Strategist's Conservative Portfolio; from January 25, 2012 to December 1, 2013 that portfolio was referred to as The Frazier Core Investment Portfolio and The MarketMonk’s Core Investment Portfolio).
Frazier’s Core Investment Portfolio is structured for persons whose primary goal is to protect the value of their principal, with a secondary goal of generating returns in excess of broadly-diversified investment portfolios over complete market cycles, meaning from the beginning of one bull (bear) market to the beginning of another bull (bear) market.
- Continued Below Week Ended June 29, 2014
© Frazier’s Strategic Allocator. All rights reserved.
Page 2
Frazier’s Income Portfolio As of June 29, 2014
Inception Date: December 10, 2013 Ticker Initial Avg. Entry Current Symbol Entry Date Price Dividends Price
Security Name Nuveen Equity Premium JSN Opportunity Fund Nuveen Equity Premium Income JPZ Fund Gabelli Equity Trust Inc. 5% Cum. GAB.PH Pfd. Series H JPMorgan Alerian MLP ETN AMJ UBS E-TRACS Alerian MLP MLPI Infrastructure ETN PowerShares Senior Loan Portfolio BKLN Vanguard REIT ETF VNQ Cash or Money Market Securities *
% of Port.
Current Yield
Current Advice
01/16/14
$12.54
$0.76
$12.97
20%
7.83%
Hold
01/16/14
$12.59
$0.75
$13.03
20%
7.64%
Hold
12/10/13
$21.77
$0.94
$23.88
10%
5.23%
Hold
01/16/14
$45.45
$1.15
$52.07
10%
4.46%
Hold
01/16/14
$38.58
$0.46
$44.34
10%
4.15%
Hold
12/10/13 01/16/14
$24.87 $68.67
$0.58 $1.84
$24.83 $75.02
10% 20%
3.92% 3.71%
Hold Buy
2013 **
YTD
Since Inception
-0.1% 2.2%
10.8% 3.4%
10.7% 5.6%
Total Returns Frazier’s Income Portfolio NASDAQ U.S. Dividend Achievers Select Index (DVG)
No closed positions * The percentage shown in the table above for the amount of our model portfolio that is allocated to cash or money market securities represents the percentage of the total value of our model portfolio that was allocated to cash as of the date of this portfolio table. The percentage shown for each of the securities outlined in the table above represents the percentage of the total value of the portfolio that was allocated to the security on the date that the security was recommended for purchase. ** Year 2013 performance results are for the period from the inception of Frazier’s Income Portfolio on December 9, 2013. We recommended only two securities for our Income Portfolio during 2013. During that period, 80% of our Income Portfolio was allocated to money-market securities.
Frazier’s Income Portfolio is structured for investors who seek to generate regular income from their financial market investments. That portfolio is meant for persons who are just as concerned about preserving the value of their investments as they are in growing the value of their investments.
- Continued Below Week Ended June 29, 2014
© Frazier’s Strategic Allocator. All rights reserved.
Page 3
Frazier’s Speculative Portfolio As of June 29, 2014 Security Name Silicon Motion Technology Apple*** Ford Motor Co. PowerShares DB Gold Short ETF J.C. Penney Ambarella JPMorgan Chase Yandex Jiayuan.com International Bank of America Brightcove TASER International SolarWinds Travelzoo Entropic Communications Cash or Money Market Securities *
Total Returns Frazier’s Speculative Portfolio S&P 500 Index
Inception Date: October 29, 2010 Ticker Initial Avg. Entry Symbol Entry Date Price Dividends SIMO 01/16/14 $14.82 $0.30 AAPL 01/16/14 $79.49 $0.91 F 01/02/14 $15.43 $0.25 DGZ 05/11/11 $13.13 $0.00 JCP 04/01/14 $8.71 $0.00 AMBA 01/28/14 $31.33 $0.00 JPM 01/16/14 $59.01 $0.38 YNDX 01/28/14 $37.88 $0.00 DATE 11/16/11 $7.24 $0.50 BAC 01/16/14 $17.13 $0.02 BCOV 12/19/13 $12.58 $0.00 TASR 02/18/14 $17.29 $0.00 SWI 03/05/13 $58.34 $0.00 TZOO 08/09/11 $33.06 $0.00 ENTR 10/16/12 $5.76 $0.00
Current Price $19.84 $91.98 $17.28 $14.18 $8.95 $31.11 $57.53 $35.16 $6.11 $15.33 $10.47 $13.39 $38.54 $18.83 $3.23
% of Port. 6% 5% 5% 30% 2% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 3% 3% 4% 3% 8.5%
Current Advice Hold Buy Hold Buy Buy Buy Buy Hold Buy Buy Hold Buy Hold Hold Hold
2010 **
2011
2012
2013
YTD
Since Inception
10.9% 6.7%
15.3% 2.1%
5.4% 16.0%
17.3% 32.4%
-2.0% 7.2%
54.9% 79.3%
Percent of Closed Recommendations that Have Generated Gains:
78%
* The percentage shown in the table above for the amount of our model portfolio that is allocated to cash or money market securities represents the percentage of the total value of our model portfolio that was allocated to cash as of the date of this portfolio table. The percentage shown for each of the securities outlined in the table above represents the percentage of the total value of the portfolio that was allocated to the security on the date that the security was recommended for purchase. ** Year 2010 performance results are for the period from the inception of Frazier’s Speculative Portfolio on October 29, 2010 to December 31, 2010. (Note: From October 29, 2010 to January 31, 2012, Frazier’s Speculative Portfolio was known as The Frazier Hedge Fund Portfolio; from February 1, 2012 to December 1, 2013, that portfolio was referred to as The Frazier Speculative Portfolio and The MarketMonk’s Speculative Portfolio). *** = Split-adjusted price and dividends
Frazier’s Speculative Portfolio is structured for persons who seek to profit from short-term developments in the financial markets and/or from the substantial longer-term appreciation potential of cyclical and small-cap growth stocks. That portfolio seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Index by a wide margin over complete market cycles, meaning from the beginning of one bull (bear) market to the beginning of another bull (bear) market. We urge investors to establish some type of core investment portfolio before allocating any of their financial market assets to a speculative portfolio. Specifically, we recommend for investors to allocate at least 70% of their total financial market assets to some type of core investment portfolio, and no more than 30% of their total financial market assets to a speculative portfolio.
- Continued Below Week Ended June 29, 2014
© Frazier’s Strategic Allocator. All rights reserved.
Page 4
Frazier’s Short-term Trading Portfolio As of June 29, 2014 Security Name Silicon Motion Technology Jiayuan.com Brightcove TASER International Cash or Money Market Securities *
Inception Date: May 11, 2011 Ticker Initial Avg. Entry Current Symbol Entry Date Price Dividends Price SIMO 01/28/14 $16.52 $0.45 $19.84 04/01/14 $6.62 $0.00 DATE $6.11 BCOV 12/19/13 $12.59 $0.00 $10.47 04/01/14 $18.55 $0.00 TASR $13.39
Total Returns Frazier’s Short-term Trading Portfolio (including cash allocations) S&P 500 Total Return Index
% of Port. 10% 10% 20% 10% 56%
Current Advice Hold Hold Hold Buy
2013 **
YTD
5.4% 14.0%
-1.9% 7.2%
Percent of Closed Recommendations that Have Generated Gains Since May 11, 20111:
Since Inception1 See footnote
93%
* The percentage shown in the table above for the amount of our model portfolio that is allocated to cash or money market securities represents the percentage of the total value of our model portfolio that was allocated to cash as of the date of this portfolio table. The percentage shown for each of the securities outlined in the table above represents the percentage of the total value of the portfolio that was allocated to the security on the date that the security was recommended for purchase. ** Year 2013 performance results are for the period from the official inception of Frazier’s Short-term Trading Portfolio on September 2, 2013 to December 31, 2013. (We made only one round-trip short-term trading recommendation during that period, which generated a 19.2% gain in only four days. 1
Although we made numerous short-term trading recommendations prior to the official inception of our Short-term Trading Portfolio on September 2, 2013, all of those prior recommendations were made via our Speculative Portfolio. Therefore, the provision of any “Since Inception” performance results for our Short-term Trading Portfolio would be misleading.
Frazier’s Short-term Trading Portfolio is structured for persons who seek to profit from very short-term movements in the prices of stocks, bonds, precious metals, and commodities. Frazier seeks to identify securities that he expects to generate a 10%-20% return for holding periods ranging from 1-30 days for the securities that he recommends for our Short-term Trading Portfolio. We urge financial market participants to establish some type of core investment portfolio before allocating any of their financial market assets to Frazier’s Short-term Trading Portfolio. Specifically, we recommend for financial market participants to allocate at least 70% of their total financial market assets to some type of core investment portfolio and no more than 10% of their total financial market assets to Frazier’s Short-term Trading Portfolio.
David N. Frazier
President and Chief Market Strategist Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC dba TheMarketMonk.com
Week Ended June 29, 2014
© Frazier’s Strategic Allocator. All rights reserved.
Page 5
This report is published by Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC. This publication is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any securities herein named. The information contained in this report has been obtained and compiled from sources deemed to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee the completeness, accuracy, and/or usefulness of that information. That information should be used as references only with your own discretion. The owner, publisher, and editors of this report are not responsible for any errors and/or omissions. The content of this report should not be construed, under any circumstance, as an express or implied promise, guarantee, or implication that you will profit from or that any potential investment losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Any investment or trade recommendation made in this report is taken at your own risk for your own account. Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC does not guarantee, and readers of this report should not assume, that the future performance of our investment and/or trade recommendations will equal the past performance of those recommendations. The publisher of this report and/or its principals, officers, employees, associates, or affiliates may, at any time, invest in and trade the securities covered in this report. Your are prohibited from copying or redistributing this report without obtaining express written permission from Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC.
Published by Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC
Week Ended June 29, 2014
6489 Chasewood Drive, Suite C
© Frazier’s Strategic Allocator. All rights reserved.
Jupiter, FL 33458
Page 6
Weekly Market Commentary & Portfolio Update Edition 66 As of May 31, 2014
Frazier's Buy-Sell Index and the Performance of the S&P 500 Index
Frazier's Buy-Sell Index is derived from the readings on his Tactical Asset & Sector Allocation Model 60%
SELL
40%
20%
1,700
10%
S
0%
1,500
S
-10%
S B
-30%
S
B
1,300 S
S
-40%
S
S
B
-20%
B B
1,100
BUY
-50% -60%
900
B
-70% -80% May-99
B Buy Signals: Triggered when Frazier's Buy-Sell Index falls to or below -40%
May-01
May-03
May-05
Buy Index
May-07
May-09
Sell Index
May-11
700 May-13
S&P 500 Index
S&P 500 Index vs. Consumer Confidence Index (Sources of Data: Standard & Poor's; The Conference Board) As of June 27, 2014
160
Consumer Confidence Index
The latest readings on numerous economic indicators suggest that stock prices, in general, will continue to trend higher during the weeks ahead. For example, The Conference Board reported last Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index, which measures the economic sentiment of U.S. households, as well as their outlook for the U.S. economy six months into the future, rose during June to its highest level since January 2008. Separately, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported last Thursday that during May U.S. households continued to increase their spending on various types of household goods and services, albeit at a slower pace during each of the prior two months.
1,900 B
30% Frazier's Buy-Sell Index
Stock market indices for most regions of the world were somewhat mixed last week, with the S&P 500 Index closing on June 27 down a mere 0.1%, while Japan’s NIKKEI 225 Index closed last Friday down 0.5% and China’s Shanghai composite Index closed the week up 0.5%, as compared to the prior week’s close. Meanwhile, India’s BSE Sensex Index ended the week essentially unchanged, while Brazil’s Bovespa Index declined 2.7%.
2,100
Sell Signals: Triggered when Frazier's Buy-Sell Index rises to or above 40%
50%
S&P 500 Index
Outlook Remains Positive; Continue to Hold All of Our Recommended Securities
June 29, 2014
2,100
140
1,900
120
1,700
100
1,500
80
1,300
60
1,100
40
900 © Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
20 Jun-99
Jun-02
Jun-05
S&P 500 Index
Volume 3
700 Jun-08
Consumer Confidence Index
Jun-11
Jun-14
S&P 500 Index
Some more good news regarding the U.S. housing market was also announced last week, with the National Association of Realtors (“NAR”) reporting on June 23 that sales of previously-owned homes rose by 4.9% during May, and the Commerce Department reporting the following day that sales of newly-constructed homes rose by 18.6% during May, as compared to the prior month. With my research indicating that the NAR will announce on June 30 that contracts signed by prospective homebuyers to purchase a home within the next two months also rose during May, I’m projecting that sales of homes continued to rise during June. That would be a very positive development for the U.S. economy and U.S. stock prices because the economy and stocks tend to move in the same direction as home sales. Separately, my research indicates that the U.S. employment situation also improved during June. We’ll know later this week whether or not that was the case, with the U.S. Department of Labor scheduled to issue employment data for the month of June this coming Wednesday. As a result of the positive factors and developments mentioned above, I advise you to continue to hold all of the securities that compose our model portfolios. Week Ended June 29, 2014
© Frazier’s Strategic Allocator. All rights reserved.
Page 1
Model Portfolios Frazier's Core Investment Portfolio As of June 29, 2014
Inception Date: September 18, 2007
Ticker Initial Security Name Symbol Entry Date Ford Motor Co. F 01/02/14 Select Sector SPDR-Technology XLK 01/16/14 iShares Trust Dow Jones U.S. IYJ 12/19/13 Industrial Sector Index Fund (IYJ) Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF VBK 12/19/13 SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT 12/19/13 SPDR S&P Bank ETF KBE 12/19/13 JPMorgan Chase JPM 01/16/14 Bank of America BAC 01/16/14 Cash or Money Market Securities *
Avg. Entry Price $15.43 $35.99
Dividends $0.13 $0.18
Current Price $17.28 $38.34
% of Port. 5% 10%
Current Advice Hold Buy
$99.60
$0.35
$103.79
15%
Buy
$123.63 $85.65 $33.40 $59.01 $17.13
$0.78 $0.62 $0.37 $0.38 $0.02
$126.85 $86.55 $33.36 $57.53 $15.33
20% 20% 20% 5% 5%
Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
2007 **
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
YTD
Since Inception
Frazier's Core Investment Portfolio
5.8%
-10.6%
18.4%
1.4%
3.7%
17.2%
3.4%
1.4%
44.5%
S&P 500 Index
0.0%
-37.0%
26.5%
15.1%
2.1%
16.0%
32.4%
7.2%
54.1%
Total Returns
Percent of Closed Recommendations that Have Generated Gains:
66%
* The percentage shown in the table above for the amount of our model portfolio that is allocated to cash or money market securities represents the percentage of the total value of our model portfolio that was allocated to cash as of the date of this portfolio table. The percentage shown for each of the securities outlined in the table above represents the percentage of the total value of the portfolio that was allocated to the security on the date that the security was recommended for purchase. ** Year 2007 performance results are for the period from the inception of Frazier’s Core Investment Portfolio on September 18, 2007 to December 31, 2007. (Note: From September 18, 2007 to January 24, 2012, Frazier’s Core Investment Portfolio was known as The ETF Strategist's Conservative Portfolio; from January 25, 2012 to December 1, 2013 that portfolio was referred to as The Frazier Core Investment Portfolio and The MarketMonk’s Core Investment Portfolio).
Frazier’s Core Investment Portfolio is structured for persons whose primary goal is to protect the value of their principal, with a secondary goal of generating returns in excess of broadly-diversified investment portfolios over complete market cycles, meaning from the beginning of one bull (bear) market to the beginning of another bull (bear) market.
- Continued Below Week Ended June 29, 2014
© Frazier’s Strategic Allocator. All rights reserved.
Page 2
Frazier’s Income Portfolio As of June 29, 2014
Inception Date: December 10, 2013 Ticker Initial Avg. Entry Current Symbol Entry Date Price Dividends Price
Security Name Nuveen Equity Premium JSN Opportunity Fund Nuveen Equity Premium Income JPZ Fund Gabelli Equity Trust Inc. 5% Cum. GAB.PH Pfd. Series H JPMorgan Alerian MLP ETN AMJ UBS E-TRACS Alerian MLP MLPI Infrastructure ETN PowerShares Senior Loan Portfolio BKLN Vanguard REIT ETF VNQ Cash or Money Market Securities *
% of Port.
Current Yield
Current Advice
01/16/14
$12.54
$0.76
$12.97
20%
7.83%
Hold
01/16/14
$12.59
$0.75
$13.03
20%
7.64%
Hold
12/10/13
$21.77
$0.94
$23.88
10%
5.23%
Hold
01/16/14
$45.45
$1.15
$52.07
10%
4.46%
Hold
01/16/14
$38.58
$0.46
$44.34
10%
4.15%
Hold
12/10/13 01/16/14
$24.87 $68.67
$0.58 $1.84
$24.83 $75.02
10% 20%
3.92% 3.71%
Hold Buy
2013 **
YTD
Since Inception
-0.1% 2.2%
10.8% 3.4%
10.7% 5.6%
Total Returns Frazier’s Income Portfolio NASDAQ U.S. Dividend Achievers Select Index (DVG)
No closed positions * The percentage shown in the table above for the amount of our model portfolio that is allocated to cash or money market securities represents the percentage of the total value of our model portfolio that was allocated to cash as of the date of this portfolio table. The percentage shown for each of the securities outlined in the table above represents the percentage of the total value of the portfolio that was allocated to the security on the date that the security was recommended for purchase. ** Year 2013 performance results are for the period from the inception of Frazier’s Income Portfolio on December 9, 2013. We recommended only two securities for our Income Portfolio during 2013. During that period, 80% of our Income Portfolio was allocated to money-market securities.
Frazier’s Income Portfolio is structured for investors who seek to generate regular income from their financial market investments. That portfolio is meant for persons who are just as concerned about preserving the value of their investments as they are in growing the value of their investments.
- Continued Below Week Ended June 29, 2014
© Frazier’s Strategic Allocator. All rights reserved.
Page 3
Frazier’s Speculative Portfolio As of June 29, 2014 Security Name Silicon Motion Technology Apple*** Ford Motor Co. PowerShares DB Gold Short ETF J.C. Penney Ambarella JPMorgan Chase Yandex Jiayuan.com International Bank of America Brightcove TASER International SolarWinds Travelzoo Entropic Communications Cash or Money Market Securities *
Total Returns Frazier’s Speculative Portfolio S&P 500 Index
Inception Date: October 29, 2010 Ticker Initial Avg. Entry Symbol Entry Date Price Dividends SIMO 01/16/14 $14.82 $0.30 AAPL 01/16/14 $79.49 $0.91 F 01/02/14 $15.43 $0.25 DGZ 05/11/11 $13.13 $0.00 JCP 04/01/14 $8.71 $0.00 AMBA 01/28/14 $31.33 $0.00 JPM 01/16/14 $59.01 $0.38 YNDX 01/28/14 $37.88 $0.00 DATE 11/16/11 $7.24 $0.50 BAC 01/16/14 $17.13 $0.02 BCOV 12/19/13 $12.58 $0.00 TASR 02/18/14 $17.29 $0.00 SWI 03/05/13 $58.34 $0.00 TZOO 08/09/11 $33.06 $0.00 ENTR 10/16/12 $5.76 $0.00
Current Price $19.84 $91.98 $17.28 $14.18 $8.95 $31.11 $57.53 $35.16 $6.11 $15.33 $10.47 $13.39 $38.54 $18.83 $3.23
% of Port. 6% 5% 5% 30% 2% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 3% 3% 4% 3% 8.5%
Current Advice Hold Buy Hold Buy Buy Buy Buy Hold Buy Buy Hold Buy Hold Hold Hold
2010 **
2011
2012
2013
YTD
Since Inception
10.9% 6.7%
15.3% 2.1%
5.4% 16.0%
17.3% 32.4%
-2.0% 7.2%
54.9% 79.3%
Percent of Closed Recommendations that Have Generated Gains:
78%
* The percentage shown in the table above for the amount of our model portfolio that is allocated to cash or money market securities represents the percentage of the total value of our model portfolio that was allocated to cash as of the date of this portfolio table. The percentage shown for each of the securities outlined in the table above represents the percentage of the total value of the portfolio that was allocated to the security on the date that the security was recommended for purchase. ** Year 2010 performance results are for the period from the inception of Frazier’s Speculative Portfolio on October 29, 2010 to December 31, 2010. (Note: From October 29, 2010 to January 31, 2012, Frazier’s Speculative Portfolio was known as The Frazier Hedge Fund Portfolio; from February 1, 2012 to December 1, 2013, that portfolio was referred to as The Frazier Speculative Portfolio and The MarketMonk’s Speculative Portfolio). *** = Split-adjusted price and dividends
Frazier’s Speculative Portfolio is structured for persons who seek to profit from short-term developments in the financial markets and/or from the substantial longer-term appreciation potential of cyclical and small-cap growth stocks. That portfolio seeks to outperform the S&P 500 Index by a wide margin over complete market cycles, meaning from the beginning of one bull (bear) market to the beginning of another bull (bear) market. We urge investors to establish some type of core investment portfolio before allocating any of their financial market assets to a speculative portfolio. Specifically, we recommend for investors to allocate at least 70% of their total financial market assets to some type of core investment portfolio, and no more than 30% of their total financial market assets to a speculative portfolio.
- Continued Below Week Ended June 29, 2014
© Frazier’s Strategic Allocator. All rights reserved.
Page 4
Frazier’s Short-term Trading Portfolio As of June 29, 2014 Security Name Silicon Motion Technology Jiayuan.com Brightcove TASER International Cash or Money Market Securities *
Inception Date: May 11, 2011 Ticker Initial Avg. Entry Current Symbol Entry Date Price Dividends Price SIMO 01/28/14 $16.52 $0.45 $19.84 04/01/14 $6.62 $0.00 DATE $6.11 BCOV 12/19/13 $12.59 $0.00 $10.47 04/01/14 $18.55 $0.00 TASR $13.39
Total Returns Frazier’s Short-term Trading Portfolio (including cash allocations) S&P 500 Total Return Index
% of Port. 10% 10% 20% 10% 56%
Current Advice Hold Hold Hold Buy
2013 **
YTD
5.4% 14.0%
-1.9% 7.2%
Percent of Closed Recommendations that Have Generated Gains Since May 11, 20111:
Since Inception1 See footnote
93%
* The percentage shown in the table above for the amount of our model portfolio that is allocated to cash or money market securities represents the percentage of the total value of our model portfolio that was allocated to cash as of the date of this portfolio table. The percentage shown for each of the securities outlined in the table above represents the percentage of the total value of the portfolio that was allocated to the security on the date that the security was recommended for purchase. ** Year 2013 performance results are for the period from the official inception of Frazier’s Short-term Trading Portfolio on September 2, 2013 to December 31, 2013. (We made only one round-trip short-term trading recommendation during that period, which generated a 19.2% gain in only four days. 1
Although we made numerous short-term trading recommendations prior to the official inception of our Short-term Trading Portfolio on September 2, 2013, all of those prior recommendations were made via our Speculative Portfolio. Therefore, the provision of any “Since Inception” performance results for our Short-term Trading Portfolio would be misleading.
Frazier’s Short-term Trading Portfolio is structured for persons who seek to profit from very short-term movements in the prices of stocks, bonds, precious metals, and commodities. Frazier seeks to identify securities that he expects to generate a 10%-20% return for holding periods ranging from 1-30 days for the securities that he recommends for our Short-term Trading Portfolio. We urge financial market participants to establish some type of core investment portfolio before allocating any of their financial market assets to Frazier’s Short-term Trading Portfolio. Specifically, we recommend for financial market participants to allocate at least 70% of their total financial market assets to some type of core investment portfolio and no more than 10% of their total financial market assets to Frazier’s Short-term Trading Portfolio.
David N. Frazier
President and Chief Market Strategist Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC dba TheMarketMonk.com
Week Ended June 29, 2014
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This report is published by Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC. This publication is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any securities herein named. The information contained in this report has been obtained and compiled from sources deemed to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee the completeness, accuracy, and/or usefulness of that information. That information should be used as references only with your own discretion. The owner, publisher, and editors of this report are not responsible for any errors and/or omissions. The content of this report should not be construed, under any circumstance, as an express or implied promise, guarantee, or implication that you will profit from or that any potential investment losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Any investment or trade recommendation made in this report is taken at your own risk for your own account. Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC does not guarantee, and readers of this report should not assume, that the future performance of our investment and/or trade recommendations will equal the past performance of those recommendations. The publisher of this report and/or its principals, officers, employees, associates, or affiliates may, at any time, invest in and trade the securities covered in this report. Your are prohibited from copying or redistributing this report without obtaining express written permission from Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC.
Published by Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC
Week Ended June 29, 2014
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