Eastern Province Cement Co. Investment Update
September 2015
Eastern Cement; Fuel allocation of the proposed new production line is the most prominent growth; and data indicates the stock is undervalued. We remain ‘Overweight’ with a lower PT Despite local demand slowdown; precast concrete sales led to better performance in 2Q2015: EPCC’s net profit rebounded in 2Q2015 after a dismal performance in 1Q2015. Eastern Cement Company posted net income of SAR 92.7mn; indicating an increase of 13.4%YoY and 9.4%QoQ. We believe the improvement of the top line revenues was mainly associated to higher sales of precast concrete, where the revenue of precast concrete sales was at SAR 57.5mn, as compared to SAR 30.3mn in the comparison period and SAR 48.5mn in Q1-2015. Moreover, the company registered slight volumetric sales growth in cement dispatches, as sales in Q2-2015 stood at 816 thousand tonne vs 813 thousand tonne in Q2-2014 on the back of construction slowdown in Ramadan. In the other hand, EPCC’s sales selling price shows stability as compared to the sales prices decline in the most sector companies. As the average price per tonne is at around SAR240, as compared to SAR241.0 in the comparison period and SAR241.7 in FY2014. Gross profit stood at SAR 107.5mn depicting an increase of 13.8%YoY, and a fall of 0.9%QoQ. Where QoQ margin was mainly impacted due to lower profit margin from precast concrete sales. Operating Profit for Q2-2015 stood at SAR 92.0mn depicting an increase of 13.6% YoY, and 2.2% QoQ; where the company has noticeably reduced its managerial expenses (SG & A) to SAR 15.28mn, as compared to SAR 18.3mn in Q1-2015. Modest sales growth, however signs of improvement on top line revenues to compensate the slight growth in cement sales: During January–July 2015, Eastern Cement’s sales rose by 3.4%YoY to 1.67MT from 1.61MT in 2014. Eastern Cement Company accounts for ~5.7% of the market in the Saudi cement industry. We expect sales growth to be moderate in the future, given the current situation of domestic demand. During the same period, industry-wide clinker inventory increased by 15.1% to 21.89MT from 19.10MT in July-2014, as compared to 82.6% unhealthy increase in Eastern clinker inventory, which indicates to higher clinker production-to-sales ratio. We expect the company’s sales in 2015 to continue its growth trajectory due to expected higher operating utilization rate and improvement in precast concrete sales; however, the growth story is estimated to be muted in the short-term due to lower than expected cement sales. Security challenges threaten production in Yemen: Security concerns in Yemen have hit manufacturing activity in the country. Arabian Yemen Cement company. had previously reported disruptions in fuel and raw material supplies for clinker production. EPCC has a 31.58% stake in Arabian Yemen Cement company, which has a cement production capacity of 1.5Mt/ year. EPCC confirmed that supply challenges had been addressed and that production had returned to the normal level. However, persisting political uncertainty in Yemen would have a negative impact on the company’s valuation due to added risks. The company reported net losses of SAR 8.8mn in 1H2015 at its share of its associates in Yemen due to current political scenario.
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‘Overweight ’
Recommendation Previous Target Price (SAR)
66.50
Current Price* (SAR)
38.20
New Target Price (SAR)
51.80
Upside / (Downside)
34.1% *prices as of 6th of September 2015
Key Financials FY14
FY15E
FY16E
845.1 2.0% 373.5* 20.3% 4.34
925.3 9.5% 297.9 -20.3% 3.46
967.5 4.6% 322.3 8.2% 3.75
SARmn (unless specified) Revenues Growth % Net Income Growth % EPS
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital *2014 Non-recurring income of SAR 80mn
Key Ratios SARmn (unless specified)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin P/E P/B ROE ROA Dividend Yield
41.7% 47.4% 44.2% 12.93x 2.14x
39.6% 44.0% 32.2% 11.0x 1.40x
40.2% 44.5% 33.3% 10.2x 1.36x
16.5%
12.7%
13.4%
14.7%
11.3%
11.9%
4.5%
6.6%
6.6%
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Shareholders Pattern Holding
Shareholders Pattern Public Pension Agency Public Investment Fund Public
10.65% 10.0% 79.35% Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Key Sector Data SARmn (unless specified) Market Cap(bn) YTD% 52 week (High) 52 week (Low) Share Outstanding (mn)
3.27 - 31.5% 65.50 36.60 86.0 Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Our estimates and valuation: Based on the lower than expected sales growth and the added risk of the company’s subsidiary in Yemen, we adjust our valuation and reduce our 12-month price to SAR51.80/share; indicating a potential upside of 34.1% over current market price of SAR38.20/share (as of 6th SEP 2015). We therefore remain ‘Overweight’ for the stock. The company is trading at an attractive PE multiple of 11.1x for FY15E and 10.2x for FY16E, with an expected dividend yield of about 6.6%. Valuation Metrics: we adjusted some valuation methodology to reduce the sensitivity of our valuation to terminal value with the
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
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+966 11 2256248
[email protected] © All rights reserved
following key assumptions; 1. Terminal growth rate is taken at 2.8% from 3.0%. 2. Risk free rate is taken at 3.3% from 2.84%. 3. KSA total market risk premium is taken at 13.8% from Bloomberg from 12.09%.
Eastern Province Cement Co. Investment Update
September 2015
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Expansions projects improve growth prospects, but uncertainties persist EPCC has announced plans to build a fourth production line with a capacity of 3.2mn tonnes per annum (mtpa) or 10,000 tonnes per day (tpd) to capitalize on the rising demand for cement in the region. As the company’s existing plants are operating at over 90% utilization (~91% in 2014), the company would be required to expand its production capacity to support future growth. However, fuel allocation challenges have dented the company’s expansion plan. The government earlier rejected fuel allocation for the new production line, and the company is yet to receive approval. The success of the expansion plan hinges on fuel allocation by the government. Plant location to boost sales growth Eastern Province Cement company (EPCC) operates a cement plant in the Eastern Province (165 km north of Dammam), which has improved the company’s connectivity with demand centres such as Dammam, Al-Khobar, Al-Jubail, and Riyadh City. Owing to the plant’s proximity to Bahrain, EPCC is one of the two companies currently exporting cement to the country. EPCC exported about 4% of its production in 2014. As the plant is located about 70 km from the Jubail Industrial Port, EPCC can easily export cement to other countries. Huge investment plans by the government, upcoming infrastructure projects, introduction of mortgage laws, and Ministry of Housing initiatives are expected to boost cement demand in the region. Strong balance sheet to help EPCC sustain growth; data indicates the stock is undervalued In 2014, EPCC’s cement sales increased 2.0% YoY on increased sales of precast concrete. However, higher marketing and general and administrative expenses led to a 1.3% decline in operating profit to SAR 294.4mn, with the net profit margin at 34.8%. A debt-free balance sheet provides the company flexibility to expand in this capital-intensive industry. The management announced a dividend of SAR 2.5 per share for FY14, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.6%. Based on our forecast estimates, EPCC is trading at a PE multiple of 11.1x for FY15E and 10.2x for FY16E. The one-year mean P/E multiple for the cement sector stands at about 14–15x, which indicates that EPCC is undervalued. The projected dividend yield for FY15E is 6.6%, which makes it a strong investment case.
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RESEARCH DIVISION
AGM - Head of Research
Abdullah Alawi +966 11 2256250
[email protected] Analyst
Sultan Al Kadi
+966 11 2256115
[email protected] +966 11 2256374
[email protected] General manager - brokerage services and sales
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
Ala’a Al-Yousef
brokerage
Brokerage
+966 11 2256000
[email protected] Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani
+966 11 2256277
[email protected] +966 12 6618400
[email protected] AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
AGM - Head of Institutional Brokerage
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Samer Al- Joauni
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547
[email protected] +966 1 225 6352
[email protected] Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248
[email protected] BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Analyst
+966 11 2256364
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RATING TERMINOLOGY
Senior Analyst
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Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
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