Energy Perspectives
Energy Perspectives 2016 Long-term macro and market outlook USA, June 2016 Eirik Wærness, Senior vice president and Chief economist
Energy Perspectives 2016 Macro and market outlook to 2040 – www.statoil.com/energyperspectives
2
Significant uncertainty and large changes … this calls for using scenarios Supply and demand factors (indexed 2002=100)
1600
12000
US shale oil prod.
1400
10000 Chinese int. tourists
1200
New Chinese cars
8000
800
Chinese air passengers
6000
600
Solar capacity (rhs)
1000
4000 400 2000 200 0
0 2000
Source: The Economist
3
2003
Source: DOE, CEIC, IEA, IRENA
2006
2009
2012
2015
Reform 2013
Several futures are possible...
Renewal Rivalry
But the world is twice as rich, needs more energy, and is more efficient
4
World GDP growth rates
World GDP and energy demand
%
Index, 1990=100
Reform H
Reform
Renewal
Rivalry
Renewal
Rivalry
500
400
3
300 2 200 1 100
0 '90-'00'00-'10
4
Classification: Internal
'10-'20
2015-04-28
'20-'30
'30-'40
0 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
A strong trend affecting economics and energy All growth in energy demand in emerging economies, in particular in Asia The global population centre is in Asia
World energy demand per region
Each small square represents 1 million people
Bn toe Rest of world
India
China
OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
OECD Americas
2013
2020
2040
Ref Ren Riv
Ref Ren Riv
20 16 12 8 4 0
Source: BigThink, IEA, Statoil (projections)
5
Speeding up the change in global energy mix … with Renewal displaying a paradigm shift Bn toe 100%
New RES
80%
Biofuels and waste
20
15
Hydro
60%
Nuclear
40%
Gas 20%
10
5
Oil
Historical
6
2040 Rivalry
2040 Renewal
2040 Reform
2013
2003
1993
0
1983
Solid fuels
1973
2040 Rivalry
2040 Renewal
2040 Reform
2013
2003
1993
1983
1973
0%
OECD Americas energy mix changes gradually … but Renewal displays a paradigm shift 100%
New RES Biofuels and waste Hydro
80%
Bn toe
3
2
60% Nuclear 40%
Gas
1
Oil
20%
Solid fuels 0%
7
Classification: Internal
2011-12-06
2040 Rivalry
2040 Renewal
2040 Reform
2013
2003
1993
1983
1973
2040 Rivalry
2040 Renewal
2040 Reform
2013
2003
1993
1983
1973
0
CO2 emissions determined by demand and mix Climate policies: Driving Renewal, contributing to Reform World CO2 emissions
World CO2 emissions
Billion tons
Billion tons Rest of world OECD Pacific
2013
2040
40
40 Rivalry
30
450
Renewal
8
2040
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
2013
China OECD Americas
NP
Reform
Statoil
India OECD Europe
IEA
Ref
Ren
Riv
Technology shift for light duty vehicles … in all scenarios, and a revolution in Renewal Sales Light Duty Vehicles Millions
Light Duty Vehicle fleet composition Billions
Other
Plug-in hybrids
Other
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles
Diesel
Electric vehicles
Diesel
Gasoline
Thousands
Electricity
Biomass
Gas
Oil
Gasoline
2013
2040
2013
140
2013
2040
3
2040
100
120
80
100
2
60
80 60
40
1
40
20
20
0
0
0 Ref
Ren
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
9
Fuel mix in Final Energy Demand for LDVs %
Riv
Ref
Ren
Riv
Ref
Ren
Riv
LDV changes in OECD Americas … and revolution in Renewal Sales Light Duty Vehicles Millions
Light Duty Vehicle fleet composition Millions
Other
Plug-in hybrids
Other
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles
Diesel
Electric vehicles
Diesel
Gasoline
Thousands
2040
2013
20
Biomass
2013
2040
350
Gas
Oil
15
2040
100
300
80
250 60
200
10
150
40
100
5
20
50
0
0
0 Ref
Ren
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
Classification: Internal
Electricity
Gasoline
2013
10
Fuel mix in Final Energy Demand for LDVs %
2015-04-28
Riv
Ref
Ren
Riv
Ref
Ren
Riv
Fuel mix change in electricity Large investments in new renewables required, especially in Renewal Electricity generation mix
Solar and wind generation capacity
%
GW
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
2013
Solar
2040
Wind
2013
100
2040
7,000 6,000
80
5,000 60
4,000
40
3,000 2,000
20
1,000
0
0 Ref
11
Ren
Riv
Ref
Ren
Riv
De-carbonization of power in OECD Americas …will require large investments in new renewables Electricity generation mix
Solar and wind generation capacity
%
GW
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
2013
2040 2,000
80
1,600
60
1,200
40
800
20
400
0
0
Classification: Internal
2015-04-28
Ren
Wind
2013
100
Ref
12
Solar
Riv
2040
Ref
Ren
Riv
Oil and gas dominate in other sectors … contributing to maintaining demand for fossil fuels Fuel mix in Final Energy Demand for Transport excluding LDVs Electricity
Biomass
%
Gas
Oil
Coal
% Heat
2040
2013
Electricity
New RES
Biomass
2013
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
Gas
Oil
2040
0
0 Ref
13
Fuel mix in Final Energy Demand for Residential, Commercial & Industrial sectors
Ren
Riv
Ref
Ren
Riv
Coal
Oil and gas are here to stay… … for decades Oil demand*, and supply from existing fields
Gas demand, and supply from existing fields
Million barrels per day
Billion cubic meters
140
5000
120
Demand range
4000 Demand range
100
3000
80 60
2000 Production
40
Decline range
20 0 2015
2020
2030
Assumming production from existing fields declining at 3-6% p.a. Source: IEA (WEO 2015), Statoil (projections)
14
2040
Production 1000
Decline range
0 2015
2020
2030
Assumming production from existing fields declining at 3-6% p.a.
2040
Wide span in forecasts Oil demand
Gas demand
Million barrels per day
Billion cubic meters
Reform IEA NP BP
130
Rivalry IEA 450 XOM
Renewal EIA History
5500
110
5000
100
4500
90
4000
80
3500
Rivalry IEA 450 XOM
Renewal EIA History
3000 2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Statoil, IEA (WEO 2015), EIA, BP, ExxonMobil
15
6000
120
70
Reform IEA NP BP
2035
2040
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Statoil, IEA (WEO 2015), EIA, BP, ExxonMobil
2035
2040
16
Energy Perspectives 2016 Macro and market outlook to 2040 – www.statoil.com/energyperspectives
2
Significant uncertainty and large changes … this calls for using scenarios Supply and demand factors (indexed 2002=100)
1600
12000
US shale oil prod.
1400
10000 Chinese int. tourists
1200
New Chinese cars
8000
800
Chinese air passengers
6000
600
Solar capacity (rhs)
1000
4000 400 2000 200 0
0 2000
Source: The Economist
3
2003
Source: DOE, CEIC, IEA, IRENA
2006
2009
2012
2015
Reform 2013
Several futures are possible...
Renewal Rivalry
But the world is twice as rich, needs more energy, and is more efficient
4
World GDP growth rates
World GDP and energy demand
%
Index, 1990=100
Reform H
Reform
Renewal
Rivalry
Renewal
Rivalry
500
400
3
300 2 200 1 100
0 '90-'00'00-'10
4
Classification: Internal
'10-'20
2015-04-28
'20-'30
'30-'40
0 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
A strong trend affecting economics and energy All growth in energy demand in emerging economies, in particular in Asia The global population centre is in Asia
World energy demand per region
Each small square represents 1 million people
Bn toe Rest of world
India
China
OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
OECD Americas
2013
2020
2040
Ref Ren Riv
Ref Ren Riv
20 16 12 8 4 0
Source: BigThink, IEA, Statoil (projections)
5
Speeding up the change in global energy mix … with Renewal displaying a paradigm shift Bn toe 100%
New RES
80%
Biofuels and waste
20
15
Hydro
60%
Nuclear
40%
Gas 20%
10
5
Oil
Historical
6
2040 Rivalry
2040 Renewal
2040 Reform
2013
2003
1993
0
1983
Solid fuels
1973
2040 Rivalry
2040 Renewal
2040 Reform
2013
2003
1993
1983
1973
0%
OECD Americas energy mix changes gradually … but Renewal displays a paradigm shift 100%
New RES Biofuels and waste Hydro
80%
Bn toe
3
2
60% Nuclear 40%
Gas
1
Oil
20%
Solid fuels 0%
7
Classification: Internal
2011-12-06
2040 Rivalry
2040 Renewal
2040 Reform
2013
2003
1993
1983
1973
2040 Rivalry
2040 Renewal
2040 Reform
2013
2003
1993
1983
1973
0
CO2 emissions determined by demand and mix Climate policies: Driving Renewal, contributing to Reform World CO2 emissions
World CO2 emissions
Billion tons
Billion tons Rest of world OECD Pacific
2013
2040
40
40 Rivalry
30
450
Renewal
8
2040
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
2013
China OECD Americas
NP
Reform
Statoil
India OECD Europe
IEA
Ref
Ren
Riv
Technology shift for light duty vehicles … in all scenarios, and a revolution in Renewal Sales Light Duty Vehicles Millions
Light Duty Vehicle fleet composition Billions
Other
Plug-in hybrids
Other
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles
Diesel
Electric vehicles
Diesel
Gasoline
Thousands
Electricity
Biomass
Gas
Oil
Gasoline
2013
2040
2013
140
2013
2040
3
2040
100
120
80
100
2
60
80 60
40
1
40
20
20
0
0
0 Ref
Ren
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
9
Fuel mix in Final Energy Demand for LDVs %
Riv
Ref
Ren
Riv
Ref
Ren
Riv
LDV changes in OECD Americas … and revolution in Renewal Sales Light Duty Vehicles Millions
Light Duty Vehicle fleet composition Millions
Other
Plug-in hybrids
Other
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles
Diesel
Electric vehicles
Diesel
Gasoline
Thousands
2040
2013
20
Biomass
2013
2040
350
Gas
Oil
15
2040
100
300
80
250 60
200
10
150
40
100
5
20
50
0
0
0 Ref
Ren
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
Classification: Internal
Electricity
Gasoline
2013
10
Fuel mix in Final Energy Demand for LDVs %
2015-04-28
Riv
Ref
Ren
Riv
Ref
Ren
Riv
Fuel mix change in electricity Large investments in new renewables required, especially in Renewal Electricity generation mix
Solar and wind generation capacity
%
GW
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
2013
Solar
2040
Wind
2013
100
2040
7,000 6,000
80
5,000 60
4,000
40
3,000 2,000
20
1,000
0
0 Ref
11
Ren
Riv
Ref
Ren
Riv
De-carbonization of power in OECD Americas …will require large investments in new renewables Electricity generation mix
Solar and wind generation capacity
%
GW
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
2013
2040 2,000
80
1,600
60
1,200
40
800
20
400
0
0
Classification: Internal
2015-04-28
Ren
Wind
2013
100
Ref
12
Solar
Riv
2040
Ref
Ren
Riv
Oil and gas dominate in other sectors … contributing to maintaining demand for fossil fuels Fuel mix in Final Energy Demand for Transport excluding LDVs Electricity
Biomass
%
Gas
Oil
Coal
% Heat
2040
2013
Electricity
New RES
Biomass
2013
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
Gas
Oil
2040
0
0 Ref
13
Fuel mix in Final Energy Demand for Residential, Commercial & Industrial sectors
Ren
Riv
Ref
Ren
Riv
Coal
Oil and gas are here to stay… … for decades Oil demand*, and supply from existing fields
Gas demand, and supply from existing fields
Million barrels per day
Billion cubic meters
140
5000
120
Demand range
4000 Demand range
100
3000
80 60
2000 Production
40
Decline range
20 0 2015
2020
2030
Assumming production from existing fields declining at 3-6% p.a. Source: IEA (WEO 2015), Statoil (projections)
14
2040
Production 1000
Decline range
0 2015
2020
2030
Assumming production from existing fields declining at 3-6% p.a.
2040
Wide span in forecasts Oil demand
Gas demand
Million barrels per day
Billion cubic meters
Reform IEA NP BP
130
Rivalry IEA 450 XOM
Renewal EIA History
5500
110
5000
100
4500
90
4000
80
3500
Rivalry IEA 450 XOM
Renewal EIA History
3000 2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Statoil, IEA (WEO 2015), EIA, BP, ExxonMobil
15
6000
120
70
Reform IEA NP BP
2035
2040
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Statoil, IEA (WEO 2015), EIA, BP, ExxonMobil
2035
2040
16
