Energy Technology Perspectives 2015: Mobilising Innovation to ...
Energy Technology Perspectives 2015: Mobilising Innovation to Accelerate Climate Action
CSIS Energy and National Security Program Presentation Washington, 10 July 2015 Jean-François Gagné Energy Technology Policy Division, International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2015
National pledges build towards a global agreement
Gt CO2-eq
Global energy-related GHG emissions
40 INDC Scenario
35
30
25
20 2000
© OECD/IEA 2015
2014
2020
2025
2030
Energy Innovation is crucial to a sustainable enrgy transition Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions Gt CO2
TECHNOLOGIES
60
Nuclear 8%
50 Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 1%
40
Renewables 30%
30 End-use fuel switching 10%
20 CCS 13%
10 0 2011
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
2020
2030
2040
2050
Energy innovation has already yielded solutions, but needs support and guidance to deliver on its promises © OECD/IEA 2014
Clean energy is not ramping up fast enough - Despite some progress Renewable power Nuclear power Natural gas-fired power Coal-fired power
Carbon capture and storage Industry Fuel economy Electric and Hybrid electric vehicles
Buildings Energy Storage Smart grids Evidence shows that despite continued progress in many areas, for the first time none of the technologies are in line with 2DS goals © OECD/IEA 2014
Technology innovation is making renewable energy markets viable Cost of electricity generated and utility-scale PV capacity installations in Germany 0.6
9
0.5 6 GW
USD/kWh
0.4 0.3 0.2
3
0.1 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Levelised Cost of Electricity
2010
2011
2012
2013
0 2014
Installed capacity
Thanks to 40 years of innovation efforts, solar PV generation is an increasingly cost competitive option © OECD/IEA 2014
Innovation has also helped improve energy efficient technologies Average new Light-duty vehicle fuel economy evolution by country, 2005 to 2013
Fuel economy is improving as policy increasingly drives the deployment of more efficient vehicle technologies © OECD/IEA 2014
Focus is needed on systems integration innovations Smart meter penetration in key areas
Data availability currently precludes a complete picture of smart grid deployment. © OECD/IEA 2014
Having the right information can help stimulate support Global fleet average and new-build plants emissions intensity of power generation in IEA scenarios 600 6DS
500
gCO2/kWh
400 300 2DS new build 200 100 0 1990
2DS
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Developing a richer set of data and tracking the right metrics can focalise actions and enhance ambitions © OECD/IEA 2014
Energy RD&D funding now targets the right issues, but is not enough IEA government Energy RD&D expenditure
Energy RD&D spending should reflect the importance of energy technology in meeting climate objectives © OECD/IEA 2014
Supporting Energy Innovation: The right policy at the right time
The right support depends on the maturity of the technology and the degree of market uptake © OECD/IEA 2014
Early stage support is key to improve future technology competitiveness Projected ProjectedLevelised LevelisedCost Costof ofElectricity Electricityof ofcoal coal power generation in the USA power generation in Asia
Assumptions on Capture Cost and Performance in the 2DS
Aggressive cost reductions are needed in the near term to make these projections a reality
© OECD/IEA 2014
Deployment at scale needs support addressing market uptake barriers Projections of wind and solar PV generation
Wind and solar PV support needs to move from strictly incentives to integrated and well-designed market, policy and regulatory frameworks © OECD/IEA 2014
Innovation is essential for sustainable growth in the industrial sector Annual energy-related direct CO2 Emissions in the industrial sector in the 2DS 14 6DS
13 12
GtCO2
11 10 9 8
7 2DS
6 5 2012 Energy efficiency
2020
2030
Fuel and feedstock switching
2040 Recycling
2050 Innovative processes
Public and private entities need to work together to align innovation goals and achieve multiple benefits © OECD/IEA 2014
Innovation in a diverse world: no “one-size fits all” solution Different regions have differing technology shares today and in 2050-2DS
National circumstances and resources will drive different technology portfolios and pathways
© OECD/IEA 2014
Building innovation capacity is key to successful technology deployment
Cooperation between industrial and emerging economies could be a win-win solution
© OECD/IEA 2014
Local innovation cultures provide the frameworks to identify priorities Emerging economy patent applications
Evaluating challenges and opportunities is essential to supporting innovation where it has the most impact © OECD/IEA 2014
Innovation can provide solutions to China’s daunting energy challenge Long-term scenarios of China’s 2030 emissions peak
China can make the 2Ds possible with strong policies encouraging energy technology innovation © OECD/IEA 2014
China is taking action to reap the benefits of a strong innovation system China’s total R&D spending and OECD projections
China is poised to become the global leader in R&D spending by 2019. © OECD/IEA 2014
Better understanding innovation can increase confidence in its outcomes
In order to accelerate technological progress in lowcarbon technologies, innovation policies should be systemic © OECD/IEA 2014
Thank you
© OECD/IEA 2014
CSIS Energy and National Security Program Presentation Washington, 10 July 2015 Jean-François Gagné Energy Technology Policy Division, International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2015
National pledges build towards a global agreement
Gt CO2-eq
Global energy-related GHG emissions
40 INDC Scenario
35
30
25
20 2000
© OECD/IEA 2015
2014
2020
2025
2030
Energy Innovation is crucial to a sustainable enrgy transition Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions Gt CO2
TECHNOLOGIES
60
Nuclear 8%
50 Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 1%
40
Renewables 30%
30 End-use fuel switching 10%
20 CCS 13%
10 0 2011
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
2020
2030
2040
2050
Energy innovation has already yielded solutions, but needs support and guidance to deliver on its promises © OECD/IEA 2014
Clean energy is not ramping up fast enough - Despite some progress Renewable power Nuclear power Natural gas-fired power Coal-fired power
Carbon capture and storage Industry Fuel economy Electric and Hybrid electric vehicles
Buildings Energy Storage Smart grids Evidence shows that despite continued progress in many areas, for the first time none of the technologies are in line with 2DS goals © OECD/IEA 2014
Technology innovation is making renewable energy markets viable Cost of electricity generated and utility-scale PV capacity installations in Germany 0.6
9
0.5 6 GW
USD/kWh
0.4 0.3 0.2
3
0.1 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Levelised Cost of Electricity
2010
2011
2012
2013
0 2014
Installed capacity
Thanks to 40 years of innovation efforts, solar PV generation is an increasingly cost competitive option © OECD/IEA 2014
Innovation has also helped improve energy efficient technologies Average new Light-duty vehicle fuel economy evolution by country, 2005 to 2013
Fuel economy is improving as policy increasingly drives the deployment of more efficient vehicle technologies © OECD/IEA 2014
Focus is needed on systems integration innovations Smart meter penetration in key areas
Data availability currently precludes a complete picture of smart grid deployment. © OECD/IEA 2014
Having the right information can help stimulate support Global fleet average and new-build plants emissions intensity of power generation in IEA scenarios 600 6DS
500
gCO2/kWh
400 300 2DS new build 200 100 0 1990
2DS
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Developing a richer set of data and tracking the right metrics can focalise actions and enhance ambitions © OECD/IEA 2014
Energy RD&D funding now targets the right issues, but is not enough IEA government Energy RD&D expenditure
Energy RD&D spending should reflect the importance of energy technology in meeting climate objectives © OECD/IEA 2014
Supporting Energy Innovation: The right policy at the right time
The right support depends on the maturity of the technology and the degree of market uptake © OECD/IEA 2014
Early stage support is key to improve future technology competitiveness Projected ProjectedLevelised LevelisedCost Costof ofElectricity Electricityof ofcoal coal power generation in the USA power generation in Asia
Assumptions on Capture Cost and Performance in the 2DS
Aggressive cost reductions are needed in the near term to make these projections a reality
© OECD/IEA 2014
Deployment at scale needs support addressing market uptake barriers Projections of wind and solar PV generation
Wind and solar PV support needs to move from strictly incentives to integrated and well-designed market, policy and regulatory frameworks © OECD/IEA 2014
Innovation is essential for sustainable growth in the industrial sector Annual energy-related direct CO2 Emissions in the industrial sector in the 2DS 14 6DS
13 12
GtCO2
11 10 9 8
7 2DS
6 5 2012 Energy efficiency
2020
2030
Fuel and feedstock switching
2040 Recycling
2050 Innovative processes
Public and private entities need to work together to align innovation goals and achieve multiple benefits © OECD/IEA 2014
Innovation in a diverse world: no “one-size fits all” solution Different regions have differing technology shares today and in 2050-2DS
National circumstances and resources will drive different technology portfolios and pathways
© OECD/IEA 2014
Building innovation capacity is key to successful technology deployment
Cooperation between industrial and emerging economies could be a win-win solution
© OECD/IEA 2014
Local innovation cultures provide the frameworks to identify priorities Emerging economy patent applications
Evaluating challenges and opportunities is essential to supporting innovation where it has the most impact © OECD/IEA 2014
Innovation can provide solutions to China’s daunting energy challenge Long-term scenarios of China’s 2030 emissions peak
China can make the 2Ds possible with strong policies encouraging energy technology innovation © OECD/IEA 2014
China is taking action to reap the benefits of a strong innovation system China’s total R&D spending and OECD projections
China is poised to become the global leader in R&D spending by 2019. © OECD/IEA 2014
Better understanding innovation can increase confidence in its outcomes
In order to accelerate technological progress in lowcarbon technologies, innovation policies should be systemic © OECD/IEA 2014
Thank you
© OECD/IEA 2014
