Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 AWS
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 Neil Hirst Washington, 23-24 June 2008
© OECD/IEA - 2008
International Energy Agency Created in 1973; currently 27 Member Countries Goals: • • •
energy security environmental protection economic growth
Activities: • • • • •
co-ordinates efforts to ensure energy security compiles energy statistics conducts policy analysis reviews energy policies & programs convenes, mobilizes science & technology experts
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
2
G8 - Gleneagles Communiqué July 2005 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
“We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our shared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving the global environment, enhancing energy security and cutting air pollution in onjunction with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty.“ “IEA will advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future. In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
3
Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 z In support of the G8 Plan of Action
¾ Launch June 6th, Japan (G8 energy ministers meeting)
z This is a study about the role of technology z It will result in key technology roadmaps that specify development needs z It can be a basis for an international technology cooperation framework z It is not meant for country target setting in a post-Kyoto framework z It is not a study about climate policy instruments
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY
In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Energy Technology Perspectives Publication 2008 z Scenario analysis 2005-2050 ¾ Baseline WEO2007 Reference Scenario ¾ Global stabilization by 2050 (ACT) ¾ Global 50% reduction by 2050 (BLUE) –
consistent with WEO2007 450 ppm case z How to get there
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
¾ Short and medium term technology policy needs ¾ Special attention for technology roadmaps
z Technology chapters: ¾ Power sector ¾ End-use sectors In support of the G8 Plan of Action
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY © OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
A New Energy Revolution: Cutting Energy Related CO2 Emissions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Baseline Emissions 62 Gt
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
BLUE Map Emissions 14 Gt
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Sector Contributions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Average Annual Power Generation Capacity Additions, 2010 – 2050
An Energy Revolution
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Cost of Emissions Reductions Technology Pessimism
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Technology Optimism
To bring emissions back to current levels by 2050 options with a cost up to USD 50/t are needed. Reducing emissions by 50% would require options with a cost up to USD 200/t, possibly even up to USD 500/t CO2
In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Primary Energy Demand
Important supply security benefits ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY
Transport sector accounts for 78% of oil savings In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Key Technology Options (Roadmaps) z Supply side ¾ CCS power generation ¾ Nuclear III + IV ¾ Wind ¾ Biomass – IGCC & co-combustion ¾ Solar – PV ¾ Solar – CSP ¾ Coal – IGCC ¾ Coal – USCSC ¾ 2nd generation biofuels In support of the G8 Plan of Action
z Demand side ¾ Energy efficiency in buildings ¾ Heat pumps ¾ Solar space and water heating ¾ Energy efficiency in transport ¾ Electric and plug-in vehicles ¾ Fuel cell vehicles ¾ CCS in industry ¾ Industrial motor systems © OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Roadmaps – Example CCS
10% of CO2 reduction potential in BLUE Map ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Financing Needs on top of
Baseline
z BLUE USD 45 trillion (1.1% of GDP); ACT USD 17 trillion z Demand side investments dominate (80%) z Undiscounted fuel savings BLUE USD 51 trillion (2010-2050) ¾ However valuation at market prices is debatable
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
z The problem for BLUE is not the cost but the burden sharing z Financing needs
¾ USD +10 to +100 bln/yr RD&D (short to mid-term) ¾ USD +100 to +200 bln/yr learning investments (short to mid-term) ¾ USD +1000 to +2000 bln/yr commercial investments (mid-long term)
In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Public Sector Energy R&D in IEA Countries – USD 10 bln/yr ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Emission Reductions by Industry Sector Reference
Iron and Steel Cement Chemicals and petrochemicals
ACT Map BLUE Map ACT Map BLUE Map Baseline Baseline 2005 2005 2050 2050 [%] [%] [%] [%] -20 -65 71 -26 -22 -68 38 -44 -2 -53 101 -5
Pulp and paper Nonferrous Metals
-36 -9
-97 -24
83 258
-91 200
Other Total
-11 -16
-48 -61
54 66
-10 -22
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Power Generation Mix ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
46% Renewables Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL
¼ nuclear and fossil + CCS, nearly half renewables In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY AGENCY
Power sector CO2 reductions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Vehicle Market Share in 2050, by Scenario and Variant ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Transport Sector Emissions Reductions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Oil Supply Projections ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Biofuels Use in BLUE Map
26% of Transport Fuel Use in 2050 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
LDV Technology Costs Cost per tonne CO2 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Key Messages z We are facing an urgent challenge in the energy sector and we need a global solution z Emissions stabilization – mainly energy efficiency and power sector measures (ACT scenarios) z Halving emissions by 2050 implies deep cuts for transport and industry (BLUE scenarios) z Marginal cost ACT USD 50/t; BLUE USD 200/t (optimistic technology estimates)
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
¾ The cost uncertainty increases with ambition level
z USD 45 trillion additional investment cost for BLUE (1% of GDP) z Important supply security benefits z We need a steep change in government policies, with closer international collaboration z The roadmaps can provide a focus for this In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Thank You ! ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL
www.iea.org In support of the G8 Plan of Action
ENERGY © OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Extra slides
© OECD/IEA - 2008
CO2 Capture and Storage Use in BLUE Map ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Buildings Sector CO2 Emissions by Scenario ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Buildings Sector Savings by Sector and End-use in BLUE Map ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Industrial CO2 Emissions by Scenario ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Industrial Emissions Reduction ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
CCS can play a key role
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY
In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Power Sector
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Growth of Renewables in BLUE Map ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Scenario Variants
Some room for choice BLUE
ACT
Emissions Additional Marginal Emissions Additional Marginal 2050 Investment cost 2050 Investment cost 2050 2050 needs 2050 needs 2050 [Gt CO2/yr] [trln USD/yr] [USD/t CO2]
Map NoCCS HiNUC LoREN LoEFF
27
[Gt CO2]
50
14
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
[trln USD/yr] [USD/t CO2]
200
31.3
0.215
76
20.4
1.28
394
25.6
-0.07
41
13.4
-0.12
182
27.6
0.03
54
14.2
0.04
206
29.3
0.12
64
15
0.2
230
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Nuclear Power Generation Projections ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Baseline Electricity Sector Investment (cumulative, 2005-2050) ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Investment Patterns Over Time: Electricity Plant Additions (GW/yr) ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Cumulative Additional Investment in the Electricity Sector (2005-2050) ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Transport
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Energy Use per Passenger-Km ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Transport ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Alternative Fuel Use ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Biofuels Land Use in Blue
Perhaps about 150 million hectares worldwide ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
Based on yields for different feedstocks reported in literature; assumes 100% from agricultural/forest crops; other sources like residues would reduce land requirement. In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Industry
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Industrial CO2 Emissions by sector and scenario ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
5.8 Gt CO2
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
20% world emissions
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Steel Energy Efficiency Potentials, 2005 (revised) ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL
Includes only BAT options In support of the G8 Plan of Action
ENERGY © OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Cement CO2 Reduction Potentials (revised) ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL
Includes only BAT options In support of the G8 Plan of Action
ENERGY © OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 Neil Hirst Washington, 23-24 June 2008
© OECD/IEA - 2008
International Energy Agency Created in 1973; currently 27 Member Countries Goals: • • •
energy security environmental protection economic growth
Activities: • • • • •
co-ordinates efforts to ensure energy security compiles energy statistics conducts policy analysis reviews energy policies & programs convenes, mobilizes science & technology experts
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
2
G8 - Gleneagles Communiqué July 2005 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
“We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our shared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving the global environment, enhancing energy security and cutting air pollution in onjunction with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty.“ “IEA will advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future. In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
3
Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 z In support of the G8 Plan of Action
¾ Launch June 6th, Japan (G8 energy ministers meeting)
z This is a study about the role of technology z It will result in key technology roadmaps that specify development needs z It can be a basis for an international technology cooperation framework z It is not meant for country target setting in a post-Kyoto framework z It is not a study about climate policy instruments
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY
In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Energy Technology Perspectives Publication 2008 z Scenario analysis 2005-2050 ¾ Baseline WEO2007 Reference Scenario ¾ Global stabilization by 2050 (ACT) ¾ Global 50% reduction by 2050 (BLUE) –
consistent with WEO2007 450 ppm case z How to get there
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
¾ Short and medium term technology policy needs ¾ Special attention for technology roadmaps
z Technology chapters: ¾ Power sector ¾ End-use sectors In support of the G8 Plan of Action
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY © OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
A New Energy Revolution: Cutting Energy Related CO2 Emissions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Baseline Emissions 62 Gt
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
BLUE Map Emissions 14 Gt
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Sector Contributions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Average Annual Power Generation Capacity Additions, 2010 – 2050
An Energy Revolution
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Cost of Emissions Reductions Technology Pessimism
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Technology Optimism
To bring emissions back to current levels by 2050 options with a cost up to USD 50/t are needed. Reducing emissions by 50% would require options with a cost up to USD 200/t, possibly even up to USD 500/t CO2
In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Primary Energy Demand
Important supply security benefits ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY
Transport sector accounts for 78% of oil savings In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Key Technology Options (Roadmaps) z Supply side ¾ CCS power generation ¾ Nuclear III + IV ¾ Wind ¾ Biomass – IGCC & co-combustion ¾ Solar – PV ¾ Solar – CSP ¾ Coal – IGCC ¾ Coal – USCSC ¾ 2nd generation biofuels In support of the G8 Plan of Action
z Demand side ¾ Energy efficiency in buildings ¾ Heat pumps ¾ Solar space and water heating ¾ Energy efficiency in transport ¾ Electric and plug-in vehicles ¾ Fuel cell vehicles ¾ CCS in industry ¾ Industrial motor systems © OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Roadmaps – Example CCS
10% of CO2 reduction potential in BLUE Map ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Financing Needs on top of
Baseline
z BLUE USD 45 trillion (1.1% of GDP); ACT USD 17 trillion z Demand side investments dominate (80%) z Undiscounted fuel savings BLUE USD 51 trillion (2010-2050) ¾ However valuation at market prices is debatable
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
z The problem for BLUE is not the cost but the burden sharing z Financing needs
¾ USD +10 to +100 bln/yr RD&D (short to mid-term) ¾ USD +100 to +200 bln/yr learning investments (short to mid-term) ¾ USD +1000 to +2000 bln/yr commercial investments (mid-long term)
In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Public Sector Energy R&D in IEA Countries – USD 10 bln/yr ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Emission Reductions by Industry Sector Reference
Iron and Steel Cement Chemicals and petrochemicals
ACT Map BLUE Map ACT Map BLUE Map Baseline Baseline 2005 2005 2050 2050 [%] [%] [%] [%] -20 -65 71 -26 -22 -68 38 -44 -2 -53 101 -5
Pulp and paper Nonferrous Metals
-36 -9
-97 -24
83 258
-91 200
Other Total
-11 -16
-48 -61
54 66
-10 -22
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Power Generation Mix ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
46% Renewables Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL
¼ nuclear and fossil + CCS, nearly half renewables In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
ENERGY AGENCY
Power sector CO2 reductions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Vehicle Market Share in 2050, by Scenario and Variant ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Transport Sector Emissions Reductions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Oil Supply Projections ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Biofuels Use in BLUE Map
26% of Transport Fuel Use in 2050 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
LDV Technology Costs Cost per tonne CO2 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Key Messages z We are facing an urgent challenge in the energy sector and we need a global solution z Emissions stabilization – mainly energy efficiency and power sector measures (ACT scenarios) z Halving emissions by 2050 implies deep cuts for transport and industry (BLUE scenarios) z Marginal cost ACT USD 50/t; BLUE USD 200/t (optimistic technology estimates)
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
¾ The cost uncertainty increases with ambition level
z USD 45 trillion additional investment cost for BLUE (1% of GDP) z Important supply security benefits z We need a steep change in government policies, with closer international collaboration z The roadmaps can provide a focus for this In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Thank You ! ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL
www.iea.org In support of the G8 Plan of Action
ENERGY © OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Extra slides
© OECD/IEA - 2008
CO2 Capture and Storage Use in BLUE Map ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Buildings Sector CO2 Emissions by Scenario ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Buildings Sector Savings by Sector and End-use in BLUE Map ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Industrial CO2 Emissions by Scenario ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Industrial Emissions Reduction ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
CCS can play a key role
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY
In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Power Sector
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Growth of Renewables in BLUE Map ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Scenario Variants
Some room for choice BLUE
ACT
Emissions Additional Marginal Emissions Additional Marginal 2050 Investment cost 2050 Investment cost 2050 2050 needs 2050 needs 2050 [Gt CO2/yr] [trln USD/yr] [USD/t CO2]
Map NoCCS HiNUC LoREN LoEFF
27
[Gt CO2]
50
14
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
[trln USD/yr] [USD/t CO2]
200
31.3
0.215
76
20.4
1.28
394
25.6
-0.07
41
13.4
-0.12
182
27.6
0.03
54
14.2
0.04
206
29.3
0.12
64
15
0.2
230
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Nuclear Power Generation Projections ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Baseline Electricity Sector Investment (cumulative, 2005-2050) ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Investment Patterns Over Time: Electricity Plant Additions (GW/yr) ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Cumulative Additional Investment in the Electricity Sector (2005-2050) ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Transport
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Energy Use per Passenger-Km ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Transport ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Alternative Fuel Use ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Biofuels Land Use in Blue
Perhaps about 150 million hectares worldwide ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
Based on yields for different feedstocks reported in literature; assumes 100% from agricultural/forest crops; other sources like residues would reduce land requirement. In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Industry
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Industrial CO2 Emissions by sector and scenario ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
5.8 Gt CO2
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
20% world emissions
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY In support of the G8 Plan of Action
© OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Steel Energy Efficiency Potentials, 2005 (revised) ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL
Includes only BAT options In support of the G8 Plan of Action
ENERGY © OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
Cement CO2 Reduction Potentials (revised) ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES
2008
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
INTERNATIONAL
Includes only BAT options In support of the G8 Plan of Action
ENERGY © OECD/IEA - 2008
AGENCY
