Google Consumer Surveys Presidential Poll Fielded 8/18-8/19
Google Consumer Surveys Presidential Poll Fielded 8/18-8/19 Results, Crosstabs, and Technical Appendix 1
This document contains the full crosstab results for Red Oak Strategic's Google Consumer Surveys Presidential Poll, elded August 18th through 19th, 2016. Question 1 is a screening question, so we report the simple unweighted distribution of answers. For the following questions, all crosstabs are subsetted to respondents who are "somewhat" or "very" likely to vote, with weighting based on age, gender, and region so the sample better re ects the demographic distributions of the United States population of Internet users. Following the crosstabs, a technical appendix contains information on weighting, margin of error and other aspects of the survey. Q1 [Screening Question]: "How likely are you to vote in the November US Presidential Election?"
Very likely 67.5% Somewhat Likely 7.5% Not Likely 9.4% Not Registered 6.7% Other / Don't Know 8.8% Results for questions 2-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or "Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender Q2: "If the US Presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?"
Results from previous survey ( elded 8/4-8/9) displayed in middle column, with dierence from current poll results in right column. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Other / Don't Know
Margin of error ± 3.3% 1 Max
(8/18-8/19 Poll) (8/4-8/9 Poll) Dierence 37.4% 36.6% +0.8% 30.4% 29.6% +0.8% 10.4% 9.8% +0.6% 21.8% 23.9% -2.1%
N=900
Samels, Data Analyst
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
2016 preferences among voters who prefer a candidate Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson
Margin of error ± 3.9%
(8/18-8/19 Poll) (8/4-8/9 Poll) Dierence 47.9% 48.2% - 0.3% 38.9% 38.9% +0% 13.3% 12.9% +0.4%
N=701
2016 preferences among voters who prefer a major party candidate Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Margin of error ± 4.1%
(8/18-8/19 Poll) (8/4-8/9 Poll) Dierence 55.2% 55.4% -0.2% 44.8% 44.7% +0.1%
N=620
Results for questions 3-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or "Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender. Q3: "Who did you vote for in the 2012 US Presidential election?"
Barack Obama Mitt Romney Don't recall / Other / Didn't vote
Margin of error ± 3.4%
44.0% 34.3% 21.7%
N=900
2016 preferences by 2012 vote 2012 Vote Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don't know Barack Obama 70.9% 5.4% 8.7% 15.0% Mitt Romney 6.2% 66.0% 9.3% 18.5% Other / Don't Know 19.1% 24.9% 15.4% 40.6% Q4: "Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?"
Conservative Liberal Moderate Don't recall / Other
28.5% 22.9% 31.5% 17.2%
Margin of error ± 3.2% N=900
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
2016 preferences by ideological identi cation Ideology Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don't know Liberal 78.1% 3.3% 6.7% 12.0% Conservative 5.9% 69.2% 7.4% 17.5% Moderate 46.5% 21.3% 13.2% 19.0% Other / Don't Know 19.3% 18.8% 15.0% 46.9% Q5: "Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as...?"
Democrat Republican Independent Don't recall / Other
26.8% 26.3% 33.1% 13.8%
Margin of error ± 3.2 % N=900 2016 preferences by party a liation Party Identi cation Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don't know Democrat 80.7% 6.0% 4.1% 9.3% Republican 5.7% 68.3% 8.1% 17.9% Independent 35.6% 24.2% 18.3% 21.9% Other / Don't Know 18.5% 20.4% 8.1% 53.1% Q6: "What is the highest level of education that you have completed?"
Did not graduate High School High School Graduate Some college or 2-year college degree 4 years college degree / postgraduate degree
Margin of error ± 3.9%
1.8% 11.2% 29.8% 57.2%
N=900
2016 preferences by education Level of Education Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don't know Did not graduate 29.5% 39.8% 6.1% 14.6% High School High School Graduate 29.5% 44.9% 10.1% 15.5% Some college or 2-year 29.1% 33.3% 9.1% 28.5% college degree 4 years college degree 43.6% 25.8% 11.2% 19.4% / postgraduate degree
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
Q7: "What is your race or ethnic group?"
Black White Hispanic Other / Don't wish to answer
Margin of error ± 3.0%
4.2% 73.5% 6.2% 16.2%
N=900
2016 preferences by race / ethnicity Race Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other Don't know Black 77.4% 2.4% 8.6% 11.5% White 35.1% 35.7% 11.1% 18.1% Hispanic 48.9% 16.7% 12.1% 22.3% Other 33.4% 18.8% 6.9% 40.9% / Don't wish to answer
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
Technical Appendix Weighting and Coverage Error
The survey is weighted over age, gender, and region in order to approximate the typical Internet using population of the United States. Google provided these demographic characteristics for respondents based on their IP address and online behavior, and Google also constructed the weightings based on these characteristics. Any respondents for whom gender, age or region could not be imputed were not included in our nal sample. This population without demographic data amounted to 224 out of 1500 respondents to our survey. This survey's main source of coverage error is that it excludes members of the population without access to the Internet or a smartphone. Statistical Error and Sample Size
The margin of error is reported on a question-by-question basis, in line with suggestions from both the American Association for Public Opinion Researchers and the practices of established polling rms.2 To determine the margin of error for each table, we take the maximum size of one half of the 95% con dence interval for each cell in the table with a substantive response (i.e. not Don't know / Other). We then multiply this number by the design bias, which in this case is 1.02.3 In other words, we believe that there is 95% chance that the true value of these estimates for the general population is within the margin of error of our reported number. Total surveyed population of likely voters with demographic data N = 900. However, since all of these tables subset the population in various ways to produce the estimates for each cell, we report sample sizes on a per table basis as well. For tables which break down 2016 preference by demographic characteristic and therefore use smaller samples to estimate cells, the error for those cells grows accordingly. Response Rate
The response rate for this survey was approximately 8.1%. After running our survey, we were able to compute the percent of people presented with the survey who answer the rst question, and then the number of people who continued on to each subsequent question for the survey. We could then multiply these values to determine the overall response rate.
2 "AAPOR
Guidance on Reporting Precision for Nonprobability Samples", American Association for Public Opinion Researchers,qaccessed 8/9/16 eights) 2 3 Design bias de ned as 1 + ( MSD(W ean(W eights) )
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
This document contains the full crosstab results for Red Oak Strategic's Google Consumer Surveys Presidential Poll, elded August 18th through 19th, 2016. Question 1 is a screening question, so we report the simple unweighted distribution of answers. For the following questions, all crosstabs are subsetted to respondents who are "somewhat" or "very" likely to vote, with weighting based on age, gender, and region so the sample better re ects the demographic distributions of the United States population of Internet users. Following the crosstabs, a technical appendix contains information on weighting, margin of error and other aspects of the survey. Q1 [Screening Question]: "How likely are you to vote in the November US Presidential Election?"
Very likely 67.5% Somewhat Likely 7.5% Not Likely 9.4% Not Registered 6.7% Other / Don't Know 8.8% Results for questions 2-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or "Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender Q2: "If the US Presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?"
Results from previous survey ( elded 8/4-8/9) displayed in middle column, with dierence from current poll results in right column. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Other / Don't Know
Margin of error ± 3.3% 1 Max
(8/18-8/19 Poll) (8/4-8/9 Poll) Dierence 37.4% 36.6% +0.8% 30.4% 29.6% +0.8% 10.4% 9.8% +0.6% 21.8% 23.9% -2.1%
N=900
Samels, Data Analyst
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
2016 preferences among voters who prefer a candidate Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson
Margin of error ± 3.9%
(8/18-8/19 Poll) (8/4-8/9 Poll) Dierence 47.9% 48.2% - 0.3% 38.9% 38.9% +0% 13.3% 12.9% +0.4%
N=701
2016 preferences among voters who prefer a major party candidate Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Margin of error ± 4.1%
(8/18-8/19 Poll) (8/4-8/9 Poll) Dierence 55.2% 55.4% -0.2% 44.8% 44.7% +0.1%
N=620
Results for questions 3-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or "Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender. Q3: "Who did you vote for in the 2012 US Presidential election?"
Barack Obama Mitt Romney Don't recall / Other / Didn't vote
Margin of error ± 3.4%
44.0% 34.3% 21.7%
N=900
2016 preferences by 2012 vote 2012 Vote Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don't know Barack Obama 70.9% 5.4% 8.7% 15.0% Mitt Romney 6.2% 66.0% 9.3% 18.5% Other / Don't Know 19.1% 24.9% 15.4% 40.6% Q4: "Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?"
Conservative Liberal Moderate Don't recall / Other
28.5% 22.9% 31.5% 17.2%
Margin of error ± 3.2% N=900
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
2016 preferences by ideological identi cation Ideology Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don't know Liberal 78.1% 3.3% 6.7% 12.0% Conservative 5.9% 69.2% 7.4% 17.5% Moderate 46.5% 21.3% 13.2% 19.0% Other / Don't Know 19.3% 18.8% 15.0% 46.9% Q5: "Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as...?"
Democrat Republican Independent Don't recall / Other
26.8% 26.3% 33.1% 13.8%
Margin of error ± 3.2 % N=900 2016 preferences by party a liation Party Identi cation Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don't know Democrat 80.7% 6.0% 4.1% 9.3% Republican 5.7% 68.3% 8.1% 17.9% Independent 35.6% 24.2% 18.3% 21.9% Other / Don't Know 18.5% 20.4% 8.1% 53.1% Q6: "What is the highest level of education that you have completed?"
Did not graduate High School High School Graduate Some college or 2-year college degree 4 years college degree / postgraduate degree
Margin of error ± 3.9%
1.8% 11.2% 29.8% 57.2%
N=900
2016 preferences by education Level of Education Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don't know Did not graduate 29.5% 39.8% 6.1% 14.6% High School High School Graduate 29.5% 44.9% 10.1% 15.5% Some college or 2-year 29.1% 33.3% 9.1% 28.5% college degree 4 years college degree 43.6% 25.8% 11.2% 19.4% / postgraduate degree
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
Q7: "What is your race or ethnic group?"
Black White Hispanic Other / Don't wish to answer
Margin of error ± 3.0%
4.2% 73.5% 6.2% 16.2%
N=900
2016 preferences by race / ethnicity Race Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other Don't know Black 77.4% 2.4% 8.6% 11.5% White 35.1% 35.7% 11.1% 18.1% Hispanic 48.9% 16.7% 12.1% 22.3% Other 33.4% 18.8% 6.9% 40.9% / Don't wish to answer
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
Technical Appendix Weighting and Coverage Error
The survey is weighted over age, gender, and region in order to approximate the typical Internet using population of the United States. Google provided these demographic characteristics for respondents based on their IP address and online behavior, and Google also constructed the weightings based on these characteristics. Any respondents for whom gender, age or region could not be imputed were not included in our nal sample. This population without demographic data amounted to 224 out of 1500 respondents to our survey. This survey's main source of coverage error is that it excludes members of the population without access to the Internet or a smartphone. Statistical Error and Sample Size
The margin of error is reported on a question-by-question basis, in line with suggestions from both the American Association for Public Opinion Researchers and the practices of established polling rms.2 To determine the margin of error for each table, we take the maximum size of one half of the 95% con dence interval for each cell in the table with a substantive response (i.e. not Don't know / Other). We then multiply this number by the design bias, which in this case is 1.02.3 In other words, we believe that there is 95% chance that the true value of these estimates for the general population is within the margin of error of our reported number. Total surveyed population of likely voters with demographic data N = 900. However, since all of these tables subset the population in various ways to produce the estimates for each cell, we report sample sizes on a per table basis as well. For tables which break down 2016 preference by demographic characteristic and therefore use smaller samples to estimate cells, the error for those cells grows accordingly. Response Rate
The response rate for this survey was approximately 8.1%. After running our survey, we were able to compute the percent of people presented with the survey who answer the rst question, and then the number of people who continued on to each subsequent question for the survey. We could then multiply these values to determine the overall response rate.
2 "AAPOR
Guidance on Reporting Precision for Nonprobability Samples", American Association for Public Opinion Researchers,qaccessed 8/9/16 eights) 2 3 Design bias de ned as 1 + ( MSD(W ean(W eights) )
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at
redoakstrategic.com
