Halwani Bros. Co. - Aljazira Capital
Halwani Bros. Co. Result Flash Note 2Q-2015
July 2015
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Halwani Bros: Q2-2015 earnings came below our expectation, sales fall despite of Ramadan season; “Neutral” recommendation reiterated. Amount in SAR mn; unless specified Sales revenues Net profit EPS (SAR)
Forecasts 2Q-15
Actual 2Q-15
Deviation (%)
294.2 27.2 0.95
268 23.1 0.81
-8.9% -15.0%
Sales volume, higher operating expenses and lowers other income lead to weak performance in Q2-2015: Q2-15 net profit came below our expectation and showed a deviation of 15.0% from our estimates and 13.8% from Bloomberg market consensus of SAR26.8mn. Halwani Bros posted net income of SAR 23.1mn; indicating a 0.0%YoY and a fall of 10.8%QoQ. The company attributed the QoQ weaker performance to a drop in sales from SR 287mn in Q1-2015 to SR 268mn in Q2-2015 equivalent to -6.7%, along with reduction in other income partially offset by improvement in foreign currency losses. We believe that the company’s sales were below expectations, which were not affected by the advantage of a coincidence Ramadan. As the sales were impacted by the geopolitical turmoil in export markets, which is likely to affect the expectation on sales growth for the quarters ahead. Gross profit stood at SAR 81.7mn depicting a decline of 0.49%YoY and 4.33%QoQ, well below our forecast of SAR87.6mn. Gross margin in Q2-2015 has improved slightly to 30.5% from 29.7% in Q1-2015 on the back of decrease in raw material cost, as we expect the prices of raw materials and packaging cost in Egypt was declined due to currency appreciation. Operating Profit for Q2-2015 stood at SAR 34.3mn depicting a decline of 6.03%YoY, and 12.28%QoQ; as the company is expected to record higher managerial expenses (SG & A) at SAR47.4mn, as compared to SAR 45.4mn in Q1-2015 and SAR46.3mn in Q2-2014. Key developments and implications: Strong presence in Egypt; Halwani is a market share leader in meat products in Egypt. In order to cater high increase in demand, the company completed its first 50% capacity expansion at its meat in 2012, while the remaining 50% expansion is assumed to be completed at the end of 2016. In addition, we believe high demand in Egyptian market will lead the company to run its post expansion meat facilities on higher capacity utilization rate. Consequently, we believe revenues from meat segment will increase at 2014-18CAGR of 10.7%. Capacity Expansions at core business to drive growth; Halwani Bros had already completed the phase two of relocating its factories in the Industrial City in Jeddah, where the company will be able to expand its capacity of the main products (Halawa, Tahina, meat and dairy). Hence, we believe this will lead the revenues from local operation to increase at 2014-18CAGR of 8.6%. According to the company, the beginning of Q3-2015 is the expected time to run all the production lines.
Current Price* (SAR)
88.30
The Target Price (SAR)
84.60
*prices as of 13th of July 2015
Key Financials SARmn (unless specified)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Revenues Growth % Net Income Growth % EPS
1,065 11.1% 90.8 -1.8% 3.18
1,135 6.6% 104.1 14.6% 3.64
1,246 9.75% 131.5 26.3% 4.60
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Key Ratios SARmn (unless specified)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin P/E P/B EV/EBITDA (x) ROE ROA Dividend Yield
29.0% 15.0% 8.5% 25.04 5.01x 14.88
29.3% 16.0% 9.2% 24.23 5.39x 12.45
28.9% 16.7% 10.6% 20.10 4.80x 10.55
15.2%
16.5%
19.1%
10.0%
10.1%
11.9%
2.5%
2.3%
2.3%
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital, * Adjusted price
Shareholders Pattern Holding
Shareholders Pattern Aseer Arabian for Industrial Investment co. Mohamed Abdelhamid Mahmoud Halwani Halwani International Company Fawaz Mohammed Halwani Mohammed Fawaz Halwani Public
SARmn (unless specified)
Price performance
© All rights reserved
2.55 16.21% 95.75 58.75 28.57
100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55
11000 10000 9000 8000 7000
8/
15
/1 3 15 10 /13 /1 5 12 /13 /1 5/ 2/ 13 15 / 4/ 14 15 / 6/ 14 15 / 8/ 14 15 10 /14 /1 5 12 /14 /1 5/ 2/ 14 15 / 4/ 15 15 / 6/ 15 15 /1 5
6000 6/
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
1.75% 0.49% 31.77%
Key Market Data
Key concerns: the absence of currency hedges could result adversely to impact the company’s sales revenue, where almost 47.7% of the total revenue comes from Egypt.
Jassim Al-Jubran
55.50% 6.99% 3.50%
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Market Cap(bn) YTD% 52 week (High) 52 week (Low) Share Outstanding (mn)
Analyst
-4.1%
Upside / (Downside)
Focusing strategic locations: An industrial land in King Abdullah Economic City worth SAR44.7mn is owned by the company for its long term investment which goes beyond the scope of 5 years; where the location advantages being close to the King Abdullah seaport along with the potential future expansions.
Financial growth - Based on our expectations, the company’s revenue will increase at a CAGR of 6.25%, during 2014-18; where the growth in revenues is mainly based on increase in sales due to robust demand in the local market and improved capacity utilization in meat operations (as discussed earlier). Moreover, Halwani Bros shows lower than usual net margin of 8.5% during 2014 (an average of 9.8% 11-2013) due to high operating expenses and we expect the company to post on average net margins of 9.8% over the period of our forecast due to lower operating expenses and lower cost of sales. We expect that the improvement in sales and operating profit margin will lead the company’s net profitability to increase by CAGR of 12.1% at 2014-18
1
‘Neutral ’
Recommendation
TADAWUL
Halwani Bro.
RESEARCH DIVISION
AGM - Head of Research
Abdullah Alawi +966 11 2256250 [email protected]
Analyst
Sultan Al Kadi
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
General manager - brokerage services and sales
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
Ala’a Al-Yousef
brokerage
Brokerage
+966 11 2256000 [email protected]
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
+966 12 6618400 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
AGM - Head of Institutional Brokerage
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Samer Al- Joauni
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
+966 1 225 6352 [email protected]
Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Analyst
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Senior Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
July 2015
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Halwani Bros: Q2-2015 earnings came below our expectation, sales fall despite of Ramadan season; “Neutral” recommendation reiterated. Amount in SAR mn; unless specified Sales revenues Net profit EPS (SAR)
Forecasts 2Q-15
Actual 2Q-15
Deviation (%)
294.2 27.2 0.95
268 23.1 0.81
-8.9% -15.0%
Sales volume, higher operating expenses and lowers other income lead to weak performance in Q2-2015: Q2-15 net profit came below our expectation and showed a deviation of 15.0% from our estimates and 13.8% from Bloomberg market consensus of SAR26.8mn. Halwani Bros posted net income of SAR 23.1mn; indicating a 0.0%YoY and a fall of 10.8%QoQ. The company attributed the QoQ weaker performance to a drop in sales from SR 287mn in Q1-2015 to SR 268mn in Q2-2015 equivalent to -6.7%, along with reduction in other income partially offset by improvement in foreign currency losses. We believe that the company’s sales were below expectations, which were not affected by the advantage of a coincidence Ramadan. As the sales were impacted by the geopolitical turmoil in export markets, which is likely to affect the expectation on sales growth for the quarters ahead. Gross profit stood at SAR 81.7mn depicting a decline of 0.49%YoY and 4.33%QoQ, well below our forecast of SAR87.6mn. Gross margin in Q2-2015 has improved slightly to 30.5% from 29.7% in Q1-2015 on the back of decrease in raw material cost, as we expect the prices of raw materials and packaging cost in Egypt was declined due to currency appreciation. Operating Profit for Q2-2015 stood at SAR 34.3mn depicting a decline of 6.03%YoY, and 12.28%QoQ; as the company is expected to record higher managerial expenses (SG & A) at SAR47.4mn, as compared to SAR 45.4mn in Q1-2015 and SAR46.3mn in Q2-2014. Key developments and implications: Strong presence in Egypt; Halwani is a market share leader in meat products in Egypt. In order to cater high increase in demand, the company completed its first 50% capacity expansion at its meat in 2012, while the remaining 50% expansion is assumed to be completed at the end of 2016. In addition, we believe high demand in Egyptian market will lead the company to run its post expansion meat facilities on higher capacity utilization rate. Consequently, we believe revenues from meat segment will increase at 2014-18CAGR of 10.7%. Capacity Expansions at core business to drive growth; Halwani Bros had already completed the phase two of relocating its factories in the Industrial City in Jeddah, where the company will be able to expand its capacity of the main products (Halawa, Tahina, meat and dairy). Hence, we believe this will lead the revenues from local operation to increase at 2014-18CAGR of 8.6%. According to the company, the beginning of Q3-2015 is the expected time to run all the production lines.
Current Price* (SAR)
88.30
The Target Price (SAR)
84.60
*prices as of 13th of July 2015
Key Financials SARmn (unless specified)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Revenues Growth % Net Income Growth % EPS
1,065 11.1% 90.8 -1.8% 3.18
1,135 6.6% 104.1 14.6% 3.64
1,246 9.75% 131.5 26.3% 4.60
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Key Ratios SARmn (unless specified)
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin P/E P/B EV/EBITDA (x) ROE ROA Dividend Yield
29.0% 15.0% 8.5% 25.04 5.01x 14.88
29.3% 16.0% 9.2% 24.23 5.39x 12.45
28.9% 16.7% 10.6% 20.10 4.80x 10.55
15.2%
16.5%
19.1%
10.0%
10.1%
11.9%
2.5%
2.3%
2.3%
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital, * Adjusted price
Shareholders Pattern Holding
Shareholders Pattern Aseer Arabian for Industrial Investment co. Mohamed Abdelhamid Mahmoud Halwani Halwani International Company Fawaz Mohammed Halwani Mohammed Fawaz Halwani Public
SARmn (unless specified)
Price performance
© All rights reserved
2.55 16.21% 95.75 58.75 28.57
100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55
11000 10000 9000 8000 7000
8/
15
/1 3 15 10 /13 /1 5 12 /13 /1 5/ 2/ 13 15 / 4/ 14 15 / 6/ 14 15 / 8/ 14 15 10 /14 /1 5 12 /14 /1 5/ 2/ 14 15 / 4/ 15 15 / 6/ 15 15 /1 5
6000 6/
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
1.75% 0.49% 31.77%
Key Market Data
Key concerns: the absence of currency hedges could result adversely to impact the company’s sales revenue, where almost 47.7% of the total revenue comes from Egypt.
Jassim Al-Jubran
55.50% 6.99% 3.50%
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Market Cap(bn) YTD% 52 week (High) 52 week (Low) Share Outstanding (mn)
Analyst
-4.1%
Upside / (Downside)
Focusing strategic locations: An industrial land in King Abdullah Economic City worth SAR44.7mn is owned by the company for its long term investment which goes beyond the scope of 5 years; where the location advantages being close to the King Abdullah seaport along with the potential future expansions.
Financial growth - Based on our expectations, the company’s revenue will increase at a CAGR of 6.25%, during 2014-18; where the growth in revenues is mainly based on increase in sales due to robust demand in the local market and improved capacity utilization in meat operations (as discussed earlier). Moreover, Halwani Bros shows lower than usual net margin of 8.5% during 2014 (an average of 9.8% 11-2013) due to high operating expenses and we expect the company to post on average net margins of 9.8% over the period of our forecast due to lower operating expenses and lower cost of sales. We expect that the improvement in sales and operating profit margin will lead the company’s net profitability to increase by CAGR of 12.1% at 2014-18
1
‘Neutral ’
Recommendation
TADAWUL
Halwani Bro.
RESEARCH DIVISION
AGM - Head of Research
Abdullah Alawi +966 11 2256250 [email protected]
Analyst
Sultan Al Kadi
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
General manager - brokerage services and sales
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
Ala’a Al-Yousef
brokerage
Brokerage
+966 11 2256000 [email protected]
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
+966 12 6618400 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
AGM - Head of Institutional Brokerage
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Samer Al- Joauni
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
+966 1 225 6352 [email protected]
Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Analyst
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Senior Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
