Industrial activity keeps falling in November - Portal da Indústria
CNI Indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 17 • Number 11 • November 2015
IINDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industrial activity keeps falling in November In keeping with the continuous decline in Brazilian industry observed throughout 2015, major industrial activity indicators – including hours worked, employment and real sales – kept trending downward in November. As for number of hours worked in production, the indicator edged down by 1.7% in November from October on a seasonally adjusted basis. The indicator is now down for the tenth month in a row. Furthermore, the number of hours worked in November is 12.1% lower than that recorded in the same month of 2014. Considering the results for the January-November 2015 period, number of hours worked in industry declined by 10.1% from the corresponding period in 2014. As with number of hours worked, employment and real sales experienced a decline of 0.8% and 2.7%, respectively, between October and November in the seasonally adjusted series. Real average earnings and total payroll grew by 1.1% and 0.4%, respectively, on the same comparison basis, but are down as compared to November 2014. Capacity utilization hit the mark of 77.0% in November in seasonally adjusted terms, which explains the high idleness in manufacturing industry.
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Hours worked are down by 10.1% in the JanuaryNovember 2015 period from the corresponding period in 2014.
120
110 jan/15
100.0
NOVEMBER 2015 Month-over-month variation - seasonally adjusted
Real sales Down by 2.7% Hours worked in production Down by 1.7% Capacity utilization Down by 0.4 percentage points Employment Down by 0.8%
Real total payroll Up by 0.4%
100 nov/15
88.7
90
80 nov/12
may/13
nov/13
may/14
nov/14
may/15
nov/15
Real average earnings Up by 1.1%
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS ISSN 1983-621X • Year 17 • Number 11 • November 2015
Sales
Sales fall by 2.7% in November
Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 140
Real sales in industry experienced a decline of 2.7% in November 2015 on a month-onmonth seasonally adjusted basis.
130
This drop led the indicator to fall by 13.3% in November as compared to the same month of 2014.
120
110
100 nov/12 may/13 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
nov/13
may/14
nov/14
may/15
nov/15
Considering the results for the JanuaryNovember 2015 period, real sales in manufacturing shrank by 8.2% from the same period in 2014.
Employment Employment records tenth consecutive decline
Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 120
The Brazilian manufacturing jobs fell by 0.8% between October and November on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking their tenth successive drop. 110
The employment indicator is down by 8.5% from its November 2014 level. Comparing the first eleven months of 2015 with the corresponding period in 2014, one can see a 5.9% reduction in industrial jobs.
100 nov/12
may/13
nov/13
may/14
nov/14
may/15
nov/15
Real total payroll
Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Total payroll down from 2014
140
The indicator of real total payroll rose by 0.4% in November on a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis.
130
As compared to November 2014, total payroll is down by 9.1%. In the January-November 2015 period, the indicator of real total payroll experienced a 6.1% drop as compared to the same period in 2014.
120
110 nov/12
may/13
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
nov/13
may/14
nov/14
may/15
nov/15
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS ISSN 1983-621X • Year 17 • Number 11 • November 2015
Real average earnings
Average earnings slightly up
Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
The indicator of average real earnings posted growth of 1.1% in November from October in the seasonally adjusted series.
120
Real average earnings of workers in November 2015 are 0.7% lower than those recorded in the same month in the previous year.
110
100 nov/12
Considering the results for the JanuaryNovember 2015 period, the indicator of real average earnings in manufacturing recorded a 0.2% decline from the corresponding period of 2014. may/13
nov/13
may/14
nov/14
may/15
nov/15
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Capacity utilization
Increased industrial idleness
Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
Capacity utilization fell by 0.4 percentage points between October and November in seasonally adjusted terms.
85
77.0%
80
In November, capacity utilization fell by 3.7 percentage points from the same month the year before. Moreover, the average capacity utilization rate in the January-November 2015 period is 2.2 percentage points lower than that recorded during the same period a year ago.
nov/12
may/13
nov/13
may/14
nov/14
may/15
nov/15
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS - NOVEMBER 2015 Percentage change
Nov15/ Oct15 Season.
Nov15/ Nov14
Jan-Nov15/ Jan-Nov14
Real sales1
-2.7
-13.3
-8.2
Worked hours in production
-1.7
-12.1
-10.1
Employment
-0.8
-8.5
-5.9
Real total payroll2
0.4
-9.1
-6.1
Real average earnings2
1.1
-0.7
-0.2
Manufacturing industry
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Average percentage
Manufacturing industry
Nov15
Oct15
Nov14
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted
77.0
77.4
80.8
Capacity utilization
78.3
79.1
82.0
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit www.cni.org.br/indindustriais (in Portuguese only)
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Ecoomic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Technical team: Rafael Vasconcelos, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design: Alisson Costa | Customer Service Phone:+55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited. Document prepared on January 13, 2016.
IINDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industrial activity keeps falling in November In keeping with the continuous decline in Brazilian industry observed throughout 2015, major industrial activity indicators – including hours worked, employment and real sales – kept trending downward in November. As for number of hours worked in production, the indicator edged down by 1.7% in November from October on a seasonally adjusted basis. The indicator is now down for the tenth month in a row. Furthermore, the number of hours worked in November is 12.1% lower than that recorded in the same month of 2014. Considering the results for the January-November 2015 period, number of hours worked in industry declined by 10.1% from the corresponding period in 2014. As with number of hours worked, employment and real sales experienced a decline of 0.8% and 2.7%, respectively, between October and November in the seasonally adjusted series. Real average earnings and total payroll grew by 1.1% and 0.4%, respectively, on the same comparison basis, but are down as compared to November 2014. Capacity utilization hit the mark of 77.0% in November in seasonally adjusted terms, which explains the high idleness in manufacturing industry.
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Hours worked are down by 10.1% in the JanuaryNovember 2015 period from the corresponding period in 2014.
120
110 jan/15
100.0
NOVEMBER 2015 Month-over-month variation - seasonally adjusted
Real sales Down by 2.7% Hours worked in production Down by 1.7% Capacity utilization Down by 0.4 percentage points Employment Down by 0.8%
Real total payroll Up by 0.4%
100 nov/15
88.7
90
80 nov/12
may/13
nov/13
may/14
nov/14
may/15
nov/15
Real average earnings Up by 1.1%
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS ISSN 1983-621X • Year 17 • Number 11 • November 2015
Sales
Sales fall by 2.7% in November
Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 140
Real sales in industry experienced a decline of 2.7% in November 2015 on a month-onmonth seasonally adjusted basis.
130
This drop led the indicator to fall by 13.3% in November as compared to the same month of 2014.
120
110
100 nov/12 may/13 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
nov/13
may/14
nov/14
may/15
nov/15
Considering the results for the JanuaryNovember 2015 period, real sales in manufacturing shrank by 8.2% from the same period in 2014.
Employment Employment records tenth consecutive decline
Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 120
The Brazilian manufacturing jobs fell by 0.8% between October and November on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking their tenth successive drop. 110
The employment indicator is down by 8.5% from its November 2014 level. Comparing the first eleven months of 2015 with the corresponding period in 2014, one can see a 5.9% reduction in industrial jobs.
100 nov/12
may/13
nov/13
may/14
nov/14
may/15
nov/15
Real total payroll
Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Total payroll down from 2014
140
The indicator of real total payroll rose by 0.4% in November on a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis.
130
As compared to November 2014, total payroll is down by 9.1%. In the January-November 2015 period, the indicator of real total payroll experienced a 6.1% drop as compared to the same period in 2014.
120
110 nov/12
may/13
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
nov/13
may/14
nov/14
may/15
nov/15
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS ISSN 1983-621X • Year 17 • Number 11 • November 2015
Real average earnings
Average earnings slightly up
Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
The indicator of average real earnings posted growth of 1.1% in November from October in the seasonally adjusted series.
120
Real average earnings of workers in November 2015 are 0.7% lower than those recorded in the same month in the previous year.
110
100 nov/12
Considering the results for the JanuaryNovember 2015 period, the indicator of real average earnings in manufacturing recorded a 0.2% decline from the corresponding period of 2014. may/13
nov/13
may/14
nov/14
may/15
nov/15
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Capacity utilization
Increased industrial idleness
Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
Capacity utilization fell by 0.4 percentage points between October and November in seasonally adjusted terms.
85
77.0%
80
In November, capacity utilization fell by 3.7 percentage points from the same month the year before. Moreover, the average capacity utilization rate in the January-November 2015 period is 2.2 percentage points lower than that recorded during the same period a year ago.
nov/12
may/13
nov/13
may/14
nov/14
may/15
nov/15
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS - NOVEMBER 2015 Percentage change
Nov15/ Oct15 Season.
Nov15/ Nov14
Jan-Nov15/ Jan-Nov14
Real sales1
-2.7
-13.3
-8.2
Worked hours in production
-1.7
-12.1
-10.1
Employment
-0.8
-8.5
-5.9
Real total payroll2
0.4
-9.1
-6.1
Real average earnings2
1.1
-0.7
-0.2
Manufacturing industry
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Average percentage
Manufacturing industry
Nov15
Oct15
Nov14
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted
77.0
77.4
80.8
Capacity utilization
78.3
79.1
82.0
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit www.cni.org.br/indindustriais (in Portuguese only)
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Ecoomic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Technical team: Rafael Vasconcelos, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design: Alisson Costa | Customer Service Phone:+55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited. Document prepared on January 13, 2016.
