Industrial activity keeps falling
CNI Indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 5 • May 2016
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industrial activity keeps falling The Industrial Indicators for May show a persistent downturn in manufacturing. Hours worked in production and real sales are up in May, but they grew at a much slower pace than usual for the month in 2016. As a result, the two indices fell by more than 3% as compared to April on a seasonally adjusted basis. In seasonally adjusted terms, industrial sales posted the third consecutive decline and hours worked reached their lowest level since the series started
in 2003. In the first five months of 2016, sales and hours worked edged down by 12.2% and 10.1%, respectively, as compared to the corresponding period the year before. The decline in hours worked and sales was accompanied by a fall in employment, average earnings, and total payroll. With May’s results, employment fell back to 2006 levels, while capacity utilization held steady at its lowest point in the series.
Industrial Indicators – May 2016 Seasonally adjusted change from April 2016
Ç Indústrias Diversas
EMPLOYMENT Down by 0.8%
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Down by 3.6%
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Down by 1.7%
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Down by 0.1 percentage points
Ç
Ç Indústria de Energia
Ç Ç
Ç da Construção
REAL SALES Down by 3.8%
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Down by 1.0%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 5 • May 2016
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
New decline in sales
140
Industrial sales dropped by 3.8% in May from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The index has dropped for three months in a row. In the first five months of 2016, the indicator is down by 12.2% from the same period in 2015.
130
120
110
May/13
Nov/13
May/14
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Industrial jobs fall to 2006 levels
117
Employment has been trending downward for a long time. The 0.8% decline from April to May marked the 16th consecutive monthly fall in the indicator in seasonally adjusted terms. In May 2016, the index hit its lowest level since February 2006.
113 109
105
Comparing the first five months of 2016 with the corresponding period for 2015, industrial employment is down by 9.3%.
101
May/13
Nov/13
May/14
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 115
Hours worked down again
110
Hours worked in production experienced a 3.6% decline between April and May 2016 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This was the sharpest decline in the index since July 2014. As a result of this drop, the index fell to an all-time low in the series started in January 2003.
105 100 95
In the first five months of 2016, hours worked dropped by 10.1% from the same period in 2015.
90
May/13
Nov/13
May/14
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
2
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 5 • May 2016
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 135
Total payroll down again
130
After growing by 0.3% in April, total payroll in industry decreased by 1.7% (seasonally adjusted series) between April and May. This is the tenth monthly decline in the indicator in the last 12 months. Comparing the first five months of 2016 with the same period in 2015, total payroll is down by 10.2%.
125
120
115
May/13
Nov/13
May/14
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Decline in May offsets last month’s growth
120
118
Real average earnings fell by 1.0% between April and May 2016, reversing last month’s 0.9% growth. As a result, the index is once again down when one compares the first five months of 2016 with the corresponding period last year: -1.0%.
116
114
112
May/13
Nov/13
May/14
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Indústria de Energia
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
85
Capacity utilization hits all-time low
83
Capacity utilization stood at 77% in May, holding virtually steady from April (down by 0.1 percentage points) in the seasonally adjusted series. This is the lowest level recorded since the beginning of the historical series. The average capacity utilization rate for the first five months of 2016 is down by 2.6 percentage points on a year-on-year basis.
81
77.0%
Grande
79 77
May/13
Nov/13
May/14
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
3
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 5 • May 2016
Resume of results - Industrial Indicators PERCENTAGE CHANGE
MAY 2016 / APR 2016 SEASONALLY A.DJUSTED
MAY 16 / MAY 15
JAN-MAY 16/ JAN-MAY 15
Real sales1
-3.8
-11.8
-12.2
Worked hours in production
-3.6
-9.5
-10.1
Employment
-0.8
-8.8
-9.3
Real total payroll2
-1.7
-9.6
-10.2
Real average earnings2
-1.0
-0.9
-1.0
MAY16
APR16
MAY15
Capacity utilization
77.7
77.8
79.7
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
77.0
77.1
79.1
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
* Explanatory note on the seasonal adjustment procedure The unusual behavior of the ‘real sales’ and ‘hours worked in production’ variables in May 2016 has not been properly adjusted for the seasonal adjustment model used. These indicators grew at a much lower rate than usual for the month of May. This required a change in the seasonal adjustment procedure applied in May 2016: the base taken was the average rate of change observed between April and May from 2003 to 2015.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores Industriais - May 2016” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited. Document prepared on July 5th, 2016.
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industrial activity keeps falling The Industrial Indicators for May show a persistent downturn in manufacturing. Hours worked in production and real sales are up in May, but they grew at a much slower pace than usual for the month in 2016. As a result, the two indices fell by more than 3% as compared to April on a seasonally adjusted basis. In seasonally adjusted terms, industrial sales posted the third consecutive decline and hours worked reached their lowest level since the series started
in 2003. In the first five months of 2016, sales and hours worked edged down by 12.2% and 10.1%, respectively, as compared to the corresponding period the year before. The decline in hours worked and sales was accompanied by a fall in employment, average earnings, and total payroll. With May’s results, employment fell back to 2006 levels, while capacity utilization held steady at its lowest point in the series.
Industrial Indicators – May 2016 Seasonally adjusted change from April 2016
Ç Indústrias Diversas
EMPLOYMENT Down by 0.8%
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Down by 3.6%
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Down by 1.7%
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Down by 0.1 percentage points
Ç
Ç Indústria de Energia
Ç Ç
Ç da Construção
REAL SALES Down by 3.8%
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Down by 1.0%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 5 • May 2016
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
New decline in sales
140
Industrial sales dropped by 3.8% in May from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The index has dropped for three months in a row. In the first five months of 2016, the indicator is down by 12.2% from the same period in 2015.
130
120
110
May/13
Nov/13
May/14
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Industrial jobs fall to 2006 levels
117
Employment has been trending downward for a long time. The 0.8% decline from April to May marked the 16th consecutive monthly fall in the indicator in seasonally adjusted terms. In May 2016, the index hit its lowest level since February 2006.
113 109
105
Comparing the first five months of 2016 with the corresponding period for 2015, industrial employment is down by 9.3%.
101
May/13
Nov/13
May/14
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 115
Hours worked down again
110
Hours worked in production experienced a 3.6% decline between April and May 2016 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This was the sharpest decline in the index since July 2014. As a result of this drop, the index fell to an all-time low in the series started in January 2003.
105 100 95
In the first five months of 2016, hours worked dropped by 10.1% from the same period in 2015.
90
May/13
Nov/13
May/14
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
2
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 5 • May 2016
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 135
Total payroll down again
130
After growing by 0.3% in April, total payroll in industry decreased by 1.7% (seasonally adjusted series) between April and May. This is the tenth monthly decline in the indicator in the last 12 months. Comparing the first five months of 2016 with the same period in 2015, total payroll is down by 10.2%.
125
120
115
May/13
Nov/13
May/14
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Decline in May offsets last month’s growth
120
118
Real average earnings fell by 1.0% between April and May 2016, reversing last month’s 0.9% growth. As a result, the index is once again down when one compares the first five months of 2016 with the corresponding period last year: -1.0%.
116
114
112
May/13
Nov/13
May/14
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Indústria de Energia
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
85
Capacity utilization hits all-time low
83
Capacity utilization stood at 77% in May, holding virtually steady from April (down by 0.1 percentage points) in the seasonally adjusted series. This is the lowest level recorded since the beginning of the historical series. The average capacity utilization rate for the first five months of 2016 is down by 2.6 percentage points on a year-on-year basis.
81
77.0%
Grande
79 77
May/13
Nov/13
May/14
Nov/14
May/15
Nov/15
May/16
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
3
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 18 • Number 5 • May 2016
Resume of results - Industrial Indicators PERCENTAGE CHANGE
MAY 2016 / APR 2016 SEASONALLY A.DJUSTED
MAY 16 / MAY 15
JAN-MAY 16/ JAN-MAY 15
Real sales1
-3.8
-11.8
-12.2
Worked hours in production
-3.6
-9.5
-10.1
Employment
-0.8
-8.8
-9.3
Real total payroll2
-1.7
-9.6
-10.2
Real average earnings2
-1.0
-0.9
-1.0
MAY16
APR16
MAY15
Capacity utilization
77.7
77.8
79.7
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
77.0
77.1
79.1
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
* Explanatory note on the seasonal adjustment procedure The unusual behavior of the ‘real sales’ and ‘hours worked in production’ variables in May 2016 has not been properly adjusted for the seasonal adjustment model used. These indicators grew at a much lower rate than usual for the month of May. This required a change in the seasonal adjustment procedure applied in May 2016: the base taken was the average rate of change observed between April and May from 2003 to 2015.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores Industriais - May 2016” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited. Document prepared on July 5th, 2016.
