January WeatherCall NA
January 2015 Issued: February 2, 2015
The Great Divide! Beginning vs. End, East vs. West: January Brought Roller Coaster Conditions to NA. Snow Threats Drove Need-Based Purchases Throughout the East. The West got a Sneak Peek of Spring. January temperatures in the U.S. were the warmest since 2012, driven by mild conditions across the West. Rainfall was the most since 2013, while snowfall was below normal and the least since 2012, limiting clearance sales on Winter products in some areas. Canada had its coldest January since 2009 with the most rainfall since 2008 and most snowfall since 2011, boosting need-based purchases. Temperature
• A Cold Start to the Month. o Week 1 was the coldest start to January in 5 years for the U.S. and coldest since 2004 for Canada, driven by bitter cold in the East. • NYC, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh were all coldest since 1988. o Cold temperatures continued into week 2 as all U.S. regions trended colder then last year. • Late Month Warm-Up. o Nationally, weeks 3 and 4 saw a shift to warmer temperatures. All U.S. regions and Canada trended warmer than last year during week 3, with week 4 trending warmest since 2013. • Consistent Warmth Through the West. o Despite week 2 trending colder across all regions, western locations experienced warm comparisons for a majority of the month. • San Diego had its warmest week 1 since 1986. Week 2 was Sacramento’s warmest since 2003, and San Francisco ended the month with its warmest week 4 in over 50 years. • Snow for Some, Especially in the East. o While nationally snowfall trended below both last year and normal, eastern markets saw Winter precipitation during all four weeks of January. • Snow, sleet, and ice blanketed the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the weekend of week 3. • A storm during week 4 brought up to 3 feet of snow accompanied by high wind gusts of 50-78 mph to New England, making it their snowiest end to the month in over 50 years. Boston and Pittsburgh also had their most snowfall to end January in over 50 years. • If it Wasn’t White, it was Wet. o It was a wetter January than last year, especially in the West and South during weeks 2 and 3.
Hotter
Colder
Precipitation
Significant Weather Events
January 2015 vs. January 2014
Wetter
Drier
Weather’s Impact “Compared to last year’s extreme cold, many markets saw a more mild January. However, the threat of wintry weather still triggered emergency purchasing, especially at the end of the month. With storms helping businesses to clear Winter merchandise, many are entering into February thinking ‘Spring’.” said Scott Bernhardt, President of Planalytics.
Temperature Callouts • Western regions brought the “heat” as Pacific and Mountain regions were each warmest since 2003. o San Diego had its warmest January in over 50 years. Las Vegas, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) Sacramento were each warmest since 2003. WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product / • The New England and Mid-Atlantic regions were the only regions to trend colder than LY. Both had category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather. their coldest January since 2009. Boston, Buffalo, NYC, and Baltimore were all coldest since 2009. Snow Removal +29% • In Canada, most eastern markets trended colder than LY. Ottawa was coldest since 2004; Montreal, Firewood +6% Toronto, Halifax, & Quebec City since 2009. Western markets saw milder conditions to LY. Calgary Hats, Gloves, Scarves +4% had its warmest January since 2006, Vancouver since 2010, and Winnipeg since 2012. Boots +2% Soup -1%
Precipitation and Snowfall Callouts
• The U.S. had the most rainfall in January since 2013, totaling 8% above last year. o The South Atlantic region had its wettest January since 2010. • Raleigh was wettest since 2010 and Orlando since 2011. o Some markets in the Mid-Atlantic also trended wet: NYC wettest since 1999, Philly since 2006. • Snowfall in the U.S. was the least since 2012, 24% below last year, and 83% below normal. o Despite most regions trending below LY, New England and the Mid-Atlantic had their most January snowfall since 2011, and the West South Central since 2010. • Boston, Baltimore, NYC, and Pittsburgh all had their most January snowfall since 2011. • Conversely, St. Louis had its least snow since 1989; Indianapolis since 2006. • Rainfall in Canada was above both last year and normal. o Calgary was wettest in 50 years, Halifax since 1998. Conversely, Toronto was driest since 2010. • Snowfall in Canada was the most since 2011, although still below normal. o Halifax had its most January snowfall since 2005, Montreal and Calgary since 2013. o Conversely, Edmonton was driest since 2006, Ottawa since 2010, and Toronto since 2012. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Retail Traffic WDD by Segment
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic by retail segment.
Retail Outlet Centers General Merchandise Home Centers Restaurants Softlines
+2.7% +0.2% -0.1% -0.3% -0.5%
Weather favorably impacted foot traffic at Big 5 Sporting Goods (+8%), Panera Bread (+5%), Dollar Tree (+3%), and Bed Bath and Beyond (+1%). www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
The Great Divide! Beginning vs. End, East vs. West: January Brought Roller Coaster Conditions to NA. Snow Threats Drove Need-Based Purchases Throughout the East. The West got a Sneak Peek of Spring. January temperatures in the U.S. were the warmest since 2012, driven by mild conditions across the West. Rainfall was the most since 2013, while snowfall was below normal and the least since 2012, limiting clearance sales on Winter products in some areas. Canada had its coldest January since 2009 with the most rainfall since 2008 and most snowfall since 2011, boosting need-based purchases. Temperature
• A Cold Start to the Month. o Week 1 was the coldest start to January in 5 years for the U.S. and coldest since 2004 for Canada, driven by bitter cold in the East. • NYC, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh were all coldest since 1988. o Cold temperatures continued into week 2 as all U.S. regions trended colder then last year. • Late Month Warm-Up. o Nationally, weeks 3 and 4 saw a shift to warmer temperatures. All U.S. regions and Canada trended warmer than last year during week 3, with week 4 trending warmest since 2013. • Consistent Warmth Through the West. o Despite week 2 trending colder across all regions, western locations experienced warm comparisons for a majority of the month. • San Diego had its warmest week 1 since 1986. Week 2 was Sacramento’s warmest since 2003, and San Francisco ended the month with its warmest week 4 in over 50 years. • Snow for Some, Especially in the East. o While nationally snowfall trended below both last year and normal, eastern markets saw Winter precipitation during all four weeks of January. • Snow, sleet, and ice blanketed the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the weekend of week 3. • A storm during week 4 brought up to 3 feet of snow accompanied by high wind gusts of 50-78 mph to New England, making it their snowiest end to the month in over 50 years. Boston and Pittsburgh also had their most snowfall to end January in over 50 years. • If it Wasn’t White, it was Wet. o It was a wetter January than last year, especially in the West and South during weeks 2 and 3.
Hotter
Colder
Precipitation
Significant Weather Events
January 2015 vs. January 2014
Wetter
Drier
Weather’s Impact “Compared to last year’s extreme cold, many markets saw a more mild January. However, the threat of wintry weather still triggered emergency purchasing, especially at the end of the month. With storms helping businesses to clear Winter merchandise, many are entering into February thinking ‘Spring’.” said Scott Bernhardt, President of Planalytics.
Temperature Callouts • Western regions brought the “heat” as Pacific and Mountain regions were each warmest since 2003. o San Diego had its warmest January in over 50 years. Las Vegas, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) Sacramento were each warmest since 2003. WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product / • The New England and Mid-Atlantic regions were the only regions to trend colder than LY. Both had category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather. their coldest January since 2009. Boston, Buffalo, NYC, and Baltimore were all coldest since 2009. Snow Removal +29% • In Canada, most eastern markets trended colder than LY. Ottawa was coldest since 2004; Montreal, Firewood +6% Toronto, Halifax, & Quebec City since 2009. Western markets saw milder conditions to LY. Calgary Hats, Gloves, Scarves +4% had its warmest January since 2006, Vancouver since 2010, and Winnipeg since 2012. Boots +2% Soup -1%
Precipitation and Snowfall Callouts
• The U.S. had the most rainfall in January since 2013, totaling 8% above last year. o The South Atlantic region had its wettest January since 2010. • Raleigh was wettest since 2010 and Orlando since 2011. o Some markets in the Mid-Atlantic also trended wet: NYC wettest since 1999, Philly since 2006. • Snowfall in the U.S. was the least since 2012, 24% below last year, and 83% below normal. o Despite most regions trending below LY, New England and the Mid-Atlantic had their most January snowfall since 2011, and the West South Central since 2010. • Boston, Baltimore, NYC, and Pittsburgh all had their most January snowfall since 2011. • Conversely, St. Louis had its least snow since 1989; Indianapolis since 2006. • Rainfall in Canada was above both last year and normal. o Calgary was wettest in 50 years, Halifax since 1998. Conversely, Toronto was driest since 2010. • Snowfall in Canada was the most since 2011, although still below normal. o Halifax had its most January snowfall since 2005, Montreal and Calgary since 2013. o Conversely, Edmonton was driest since 2006, Ottawa since 2010, and Toronto since 2012. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Retail Traffic WDD by Segment
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic by retail segment.
Retail Outlet Centers General Merchandise Home Centers Restaurants Softlines
+2.7% +0.2% -0.1% -0.3% -0.5%
Weather favorably impacted foot traffic at Big 5 Sporting Goods (+8%), Panera Bread (+5%), Dollar Tree (+3%), and Bed Bath and Beyond (+1%). www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
