February WeatherCall NA
February 2015 Issued: March 2, 2015
Record Breaking! The Coldest February Since 1989 in the U.S., and Coldest Since 1994 in Canada. Winter Storms Continued to Drive Need-Based Purchases While Record Warmth in the West Provided a Fast Pass to Spring. February temperatures in the U.S. were the coldest since 1989, driven by cold in the East. Rainfall was the least since 2012 and below normal. Snowfall was less than last year although above normal driving Winter clearance for some areas. Canada had its coldest February since 1994. Snowfall was the most in over 55 years and rainfall was above last year and normal, resulting in need-based purchasing.
February 2015 vs. February 2014
Weather’s Impact “Old Man Winter was relentless during February across the East. While the cold temperatures helped to clear remaining Winter goods, weekend storms limited consumers ability to get out to the stores. Early Spring opportunities were focused in the West,” said Scott Bernhardt, President of Planalytics.
Temperature Callouts • Record cold in the East resulted in the New England and Mid-Atlantic regions having their coldest February in over 55 years. The East North Central had its 2nd coldest; East South Central 3rd coldest. o NYC, Boston, Baltimore, Detroit, and Pittsburgh all were coldest in 55+ years. o Chicago, Cleveland, and Buffalo had their coldest February on record. • Out West, the Pacific region had its warmest February in over 55 years; Mountain region since 1995. o San Francisco, Salt Lake City, and Portland, OR each had their warmest February in 55+ years. • In Canada, record cold was felt in Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, and Quebec City. Each city had their coldest February in over 55 years. Vancouver experienced its warmest February in 55 years.
Precipitation and Snowfall Callouts • Snowfall in the U.S. trended 15% below LY, although significantly above normal. o Boston and Denver had their snowiest February on record; Chicago and Buffalo 3rd snowiest. • Rainfall in the U.S. was 21% below last year and less than normal. • Canada had its most February snowfall in over 55 years driven by eastern locations. o Halifax and Windsor had their most February snowfall in over 55 years, Ottawa since 2008. • Rainfall in Canada was above last year but below normal. o Edmonton was wettest since 1989, Halifax 2008. Conversely, Quebec City was driest since 2010. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Hotter
Colder
Mean Temperature Trends for February 2015 Temp vs Temp vs LY Normal Notable
City Cleveland
-7.8F
-13.4F
Raleigh
-8.6F
-9.2F
Coldest February on record Coldest since 1978
New York City
-7.0F
-8.2F
Coldest in over 55 years Coldest in over 55 years
Ottawa
-5.7C
-8.2C
Los Angeles
+1.4F
+3.7F
Warmest since 1995
Portland, OR
+8.8F
+6.1F
Warmest February on record
Precipitation
• Weekend Woes. o All four weekends of February were impacted by traffic limiting Winter events. • Moderate snow fell throughout the Great Lakes and Northeast during the 1st weekend of the month (Feb 7-8), accompanied by disruptive ice in New York City and surrounding suburbs. • A Nor'easter during the 2nd weekend brought heavy snow to New England. • The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions were again hit with snow, ice, and rain during the 3rd weekend. New York City and Washington, DC set daily snowfall records with many cold temperature records set throughout the regions. • The final weekend of the month brought a wintry mix to parts of the Southwest, Texas, and along the I-95 Corridor. The Central Plains and Great Lakes received measurable snowfall. • In Like a Lion, Out Like a Polar Bear. o The coldest February in 26 years wreaked havoc on anyone with Spring fever in the East. o Eastern locations bore the brunt of the cold, but the West got in the game by month’s end with the U.S. experiencing its coldest final week of February in over 55 years. • Valentine’s Day (Feb. 14) was coldest since 2010 in the U.S.; coldest since 2003 in Canada. • President’s Day (Feb. 16) was the coldest since 1979. The New England, Mid-Atlantic, and East North Central regions were coldest in over 55 years. • The West was Best for Early Spring Demand. o Warm conditions were felt during three out of four weeks across western areas. • The Pacific and Mountain regions had their warmest 2nd week of February in over 55 years. • Salt Lake City had its warmest 1st week of the month in 55 years. Las Vegas was warmest in over 55 years during both the 2nd and 3rd weeks of the month. • Wicked Snowfall. o Snowfall in the U.S. was focused in New England. Canada had its most snowfall in 55+ years. • Boston had 65 inches of snow in February alone, making it the snowiest month ever recorded. • Buffalo, Cleveland, and Detroit started the month with their most week 1 snowfall in over 55 years and Canada had its snowiest week 1 since 1982. • Denver had its snowiest week 3 of February in over 55 years. Week 4 brought the most snow to Raleigh since 1969, Oklahoma City since 1971, and Richmond since 1993. • Rain Out West, Oh Yes! o While nationally, rainfall was the least since 2012, western areas received some much needed rainfall during weeks 1 & 4 helping to aid drought conditions.
Temperature
Significant Weather Events
Wetter
Drier
Snowfall Trends for February 2015 Snowfall Total Snowfall vs LY
City
Notable
Boston
64.8 in
+41.9 in
Snowiest February on record
Buffalo
45.8 in
+22.3 in
Snowiest in over 55 years
Denver
22.4 in
+18.2 in
Snowiest February on record Snowiest since 2011
Chicago
26.8 in
+7.3 in
Montreal
487 mm
+154 mm
Snowiest since 2011
Minneapolis
4.9 in
-13.5 in
Least snow since 2012
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product / category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
Ice Melt Heaters Birdseed Soup Short Sleeve Shirts
+38% +19% +6% +2% -2%
Retail Traffic WDD by Segment
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic by retail segment.
Home Centers Restaurants Indoor Entertainment General Merchandise Softlines
+3.6% +0.7% +0.2% -0.1% -0.4%
Weather impacted foot traffic at The Cheesecake Factory (+12%), Cabelas (+8%), American Eagle Outfitters (+3%), and Stage Stores (-1%). www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Record Breaking! The Coldest February Since 1989 in the U.S., and Coldest Since 1994 in Canada. Winter Storms Continued to Drive Need-Based Purchases While Record Warmth in the West Provided a Fast Pass to Spring. February temperatures in the U.S. were the coldest since 1989, driven by cold in the East. Rainfall was the least since 2012 and below normal. Snowfall was less than last year although above normal driving Winter clearance for some areas. Canada had its coldest February since 1994. Snowfall was the most in over 55 years and rainfall was above last year and normal, resulting in need-based purchasing.
February 2015 vs. February 2014
Weather’s Impact “Old Man Winter was relentless during February across the East. While the cold temperatures helped to clear remaining Winter goods, weekend storms limited consumers ability to get out to the stores. Early Spring opportunities were focused in the West,” said Scott Bernhardt, President of Planalytics.
Temperature Callouts • Record cold in the East resulted in the New England and Mid-Atlantic regions having their coldest February in over 55 years. The East North Central had its 2nd coldest; East South Central 3rd coldest. o NYC, Boston, Baltimore, Detroit, and Pittsburgh all were coldest in 55+ years. o Chicago, Cleveland, and Buffalo had their coldest February on record. • Out West, the Pacific region had its warmest February in over 55 years; Mountain region since 1995. o San Francisco, Salt Lake City, and Portland, OR each had their warmest February in 55+ years. • In Canada, record cold was felt in Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, and Quebec City. Each city had their coldest February in over 55 years. Vancouver experienced its warmest February in 55 years.
Precipitation and Snowfall Callouts • Snowfall in the U.S. trended 15% below LY, although significantly above normal. o Boston and Denver had their snowiest February on record; Chicago and Buffalo 3rd snowiest. • Rainfall in the U.S. was 21% below last year and less than normal. • Canada had its most February snowfall in over 55 years driven by eastern locations. o Halifax and Windsor had their most February snowfall in over 55 years, Ottawa since 2008. • Rainfall in Canada was above last year but below normal. o Edmonton was wettest since 1989, Halifax 2008. Conversely, Quebec City was driest since 2010. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Hotter
Colder
Mean Temperature Trends for February 2015 Temp vs Temp vs LY Normal Notable
City Cleveland
-7.8F
-13.4F
Raleigh
-8.6F
-9.2F
Coldest February on record Coldest since 1978
New York City
-7.0F
-8.2F
Coldest in over 55 years Coldest in over 55 years
Ottawa
-5.7C
-8.2C
Los Angeles
+1.4F
+3.7F
Warmest since 1995
Portland, OR
+8.8F
+6.1F
Warmest February on record
Precipitation
• Weekend Woes. o All four weekends of February were impacted by traffic limiting Winter events. • Moderate snow fell throughout the Great Lakes and Northeast during the 1st weekend of the month (Feb 7-8), accompanied by disruptive ice in New York City and surrounding suburbs. • A Nor'easter during the 2nd weekend brought heavy snow to New England. • The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions were again hit with snow, ice, and rain during the 3rd weekend. New York City and Washington, DC set daily snowfall records with many cold temperature records set throughout the regions. • The final weekend of the month brought a wintry mix to parts of the Southwest, Texas, and along the I-95 Corridor. The Central Plains and Great Lakes received measurable snowfall. • In Like a Lion, Out Like a Polar Bear. o The coldest February in 26 years wreaked havoc on anyone with Spring fever in the East. o Eastern locations bore the brunt of the cold, but the West got in the game by month’s end with the U.S. experiencing its coldest final week of February in over 55 years. • Valentine’s Day (Feb. 14) was coldest since 2010 in the U.S.; coldest since 2003 in Canada. • President’s Day (Feb. 16) was the coldest since 1979. The New England, Mid-Atlantic, and East North Central regions were coldest in over 55 years. • The West was Best for Early Spring Demand. o Warm conditions were felt during three out of four weeks across western areas. • The Pacific and Mountain regions had their warmest 2nd week of February in over 55 years. • Salt Lake City had its warmest 1st week of the month in 55 years. Las Vegas was warmest in over 55 years during both the 2nd and 3rd weeks of the month. • Wicked Snowfall. o Snowfall in the U.S. was focused in New England. Canada had its most snowfall in 55+ years. • Boston had 65 inches of snow in February alone, making it the snowiest month ever recorded. • Buffalo, Cleveland, and Detroit started the month with their most week 1 snowfall in over 55 years and Canada had its snowiest week 1 since 1982. • Denver had its snowiest week 3 of February in over 55 years. Week 4 brought the most snow to Raleigh since 1969, Oklahoma City since 1971, and Richmond since 1993. • Rain Out West, Oh Yes! o While nationally, rainfall was the least since 2012, western areas received some much needed rainfall during weeks 1 & 4 helping to aid drought conditions.
Temperature
Significant Weather Events
Wetter
Drier
Snowfall Trends for February 2015 Snowfall Total Snowfall vs LY
City
Notable
Boston
64.8 in
+41.9 in
Snowiest February on record
Buffalo
45.8 in
+22.3 in
Snowiest in over 55 years
Denver
22.4 in
+18.2 in
Snowiest February on record Snowiest since 2011
Chicago
26.8 in
+7.3 in
Montreal
487 mm
+154 mm
Snowiest since 2011
Minneapolis
4.9 in
-13.5 in
Least snow since 2012
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product / category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
Ice Melt Heaters Birdseed Soup Short Sleeve Shirts
+38% +19% +6% +2% -2%
Retail Traffic WDD by Segment
Estimated impact of weather on foot traffic by retail segment.
Home Centers Restaurants Indoor Entertainment General Merchandise Softlines
+3.6% +0.7% +0.2% -0.1% -0.4%
Weather impacted foot traffic at The Cheesecake Factory (+12%), Cabelas (+8%), American Eagle Outfitters (+3%), and Stage Stores (-1%). www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
