Seafco Buy (17E TP Bt13.70)
Earnings Review
Close Bt11.60
Construction Services August 17, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
2Q16 net profit fell by 28%YoY and 33%QoQ Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.672
0.796
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐0.3%
‐4.5%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SEAF.BK/SEAFCO TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
305.67
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
4.00/103.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/8.88
52 week High / Low (Bt)
12.50/7.35
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
2,070.00 3.30
Estimated free float (%)
63.07
New project momentum from state and private sectors to drive the share price to outperform The bright outlook for new projects from both the state and private sectors is helping to boost SEAFCO’s backlog, which will drive its 2H16 earnings. We expect the firm’s earnings to achieve a 3‐year CAGR of 22% (2015‐18). We maintain our current forecast but roll over the target price to the 2017E target price at Bt13.70/share (18x PER). As the current market price implies 18% upside to our new target price, we have upgraded our rating to “BUY” (from Outperform) for SEAFCO. 2Q16 net profit fell by 28%YoY and 33%QoQ, 24% below forecast SEAFCO posted a net profit of Bt36mn (‐28%YoY, ‐33%QoQ), which fell short of our estimate (Bt47mn) by 24% because the SG&A to sales of 9% exceeded our estimate of 6.5% (or around Bt12mn). The downbeat earnings were due to the booking of FX loss and costs linked to the repair of piling and diaphragm wall works for projects closed last year. Meanwhile, revenue amounted to Bt467mn (+8%YoY, ‐8%QoQ) and the gross profit margin narrowed to 18.2% vs. 20% in 2Q15 and 1Q16 given the realization of higher labor and material fees vs. last year. Financial status remains firm, with DPS of Bt0.11 As of the end of 2Q16, the D/E ratio was 0.28x and cash and short‐term investments stood at Bt131mn (EPS: Bt0.43). The interest bearing debt amounted to Bt282mn. The firm announced an interim DPS of Bt0.11 for its 1H16 performance; it will go XD on 25 Aug and the dividend payment will be on 9 Sep. The announced DPS implies a dividend yield of 1.9%. Maintain 2016E earnings forecast calling for 44%YoY growth The firm’s 1H16 net profit was Bt89mn, up 15%YoY as revenue increased by 7% and the gross profit margin improved to 19.1% (vs. 16.7% in 2015). The 1H16 earnings account for 43% of our full‐year projection of Bt205mn (+44%YoY), which remains unchanged. Financial and Valuation
Beta
0.83
URL
www.seafco.co.th
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
CGR
Revenues (Btmn)
1,307
1,887
1,856
2,042
2,246
Net profit (Btmn)
138
209
151
205
232
EPS (Bt)
0.55
0.72
0.49
0.67
0.76
Norm. EPS (Bt)
0.49
0.70
0.47
0.67
0.76
‐24%
44%
‐34%
44%
13%
0.28
0.34
0.25
0.33
0.38
2.83
3.10
3.21
3.59
3.99
Anti‐corruption
n.a.
Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
Phornsri Laysanitsaerekul
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x)
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
21.09
16.18
23.49
17.34
15.28
Analyst , no 17621
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.93
6.62
9.00
7.01
6.08
[email protected] PBV (x)
4.10
3.74
3.61
3.23
2.91
66 (0) 2624‐6258
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2.44% 19.7% 20.6
2.93% 25.1% 0.1
2.16% 16.0% 4.7
2.88% 19.7% 2.7
3.27% 20.0% ‐3.9
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1 : 2Q16 earnings review
(Bt m) Sales COGS Gross profit SG&A expense EBIT Interest expense EBT Tax expense Equity income MI Norm. profit Extra. Items Net profit
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16 % YoY %QoQ 1H15 1H16 433 510 467 8.0% ‐8.3% 913 977 ‐346 ‐408 ‐382 10.4% ‐6.2% ‐760 ‐790 86 102 85 ‐1.6% ‐16.8% 153 187 ‐31 ‐33 ‐42 37.4% 27.1% ‐62 ‐75 60 71 46 ‐22.2% ‐34.8% 98 117 ‐4 ‐4 ‐4 17.4% 17.6% ‐7 ‐8 56 67 42 ‐24.8% ‐37.5% 92 110 ‐10 ‐14 ‐7 ‐35.9% ‐52.9% ‐19 ‐21 0 0 0 nm nm 0 0 0 0 ‐0 nm nm ‐0 0 46 53 36 ‐22.1% ‐33.0% 73 89 4 0 0 nm nm 4 0 49 53 36 ‐27.6% ‐33.0% 77 89
EPS (Bt)
0.16
0.17
0.12 ‐27.3% ‐33.0%
Gross margin EBIT margin Norm. profit margin Net profit margin
20.0% 13.8% 10.6% 11.4%
20.0% 18.2% 13.9% 9.9% 10.4% 7.6% 10.4% 7.6%
0.25
% YoY 2015 2016E % YoY YTD (% of 2016E) 7.0% 1,856 2,042 10.0% 47.8% 3.9% ‐1,547 ‐1,654 6.9% 47.8% 22.3% 309 388 25.4% 48.2% 20.8% ‐126 ‐133 5.2% 56.6% 19.3% 200 270 35.2% 43.5% 18.1% ‐15 ‐13 ‐15.2% 60.4% 19.3% 185 257 39.3% 42.6% 11.7% ‐41 ‐51 25.3% 40.3% nm 0 0 nm nm nm 1 1 nm 16.9% 20.8% 142 205 43.8% 43.4% nm 9 0 nm nm 15.0% 151 205 35.5% 43.4%
0.29 16.0%
16.7% 19.1% 10.8% 12.0% 8.0% 9.1% 8.4% 9.1%
0.49
0.67 35.5%
16.7% 10.8% 7.7% 8.1%
19.0% 13.2% 10.0% 10.0%
43.4%
Source: SET and KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, CI, EARTH. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH, RJH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.