LPN Development AWS
L.P.N. Development Buy (16E TP Bt20)
Company Update
Close Bt17.50
Property Development September 25, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Revise down 2015 presales 15% but doesn’t affect net profit Price Performance (%)
Source: Setsmart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.777
1.957
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
3.5%
3.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
LPN.BK/ LPN TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,475.70
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
26.00/712.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
39.00/25.35
52 week High / Low (Bt)
25.75/14.20
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
5,548.00
NVDR (%)
12.53
Estimated free float (%)
79.91
Beta
1.13
URL
www.lpn.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
Level 2 (Declared)
Maintain Buy with 16E TP of Bt20 (10x PER) LPN has lowered its 2015 presales target by 15% from its previous target. However, we maintain our 2015‐16E core profit because the postponed projects will be realized as revenue from 2017 onward. We expect LPN’s net profit to peak in 3Q15. Moreover, LPN will be the prime beneficiary if the government implements a property stimulus package, i.e., tax incentives for buyers. Hence, we maintain Buy. Revised down 2015 presales target to Bt17bn LPN has revised down the 2015 presales target to Bt17bn from its previous target of Bt20bn because the company reduced 2015 new project launches from 11 projects (Bt21bn) to eight projects (Bt12bn). This resulted from the unfavorable economic climate, which does not justify opening some projects this year. 8M15 presales secure 65% of full‐year target LPN's 8M15 presales were equal to Bt11bn (‐9.1% YoY), which is sufficient to secure 65% of the company's new target of Bt17bn. In 4Q15, LPN plans to launch four projects with a combined value of Bt7bn. Furthermore, the company had units available for sales amounting to Bt13bn at end 2Q15. Therefore, we assume that LPN will be able to achieve its new 2015 target at Bt17bn, which is 9.5% below our previous assumption at Bt18.8bn. Maintain 2015‐16E core profit We maintain the 2015‐2016E core profit at Bt2.7bn (+34.4% YoY) and Bt3.0bn (+10.1% YoY), respectively, due to the fact that new project launches delayed to next year will be realized as revenue from 2017 onward. LPN’s 2Q15 backlog is sufficient to secure 97% of our 2015E transfer revenue. Furthermore, it is enough to secure 58% of our 2016E transfer revenue. The remaining 42% of our transfer revenue estimate for next year will come from inventory and units available for sales of Bt13bn that could be realized as revenue in 2016. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btm) Net profit (Btm) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2012 13,325 2,229 1.51 16.3 1.49 14.8 0.76 5.75 2012 11.6 11.8 9.7 3.0 4.3 28.6 19.8
2013 14,347 2,329 1.58 4.5 1.58 6.2 0.84 6.52 2013 11.1 11.1 10.0 2.7 4.8 25.7 42.6
2014 12,867 2,021 1.37 ‐13.2 1.37 ‐13.2 0.80 7.05 2014 12.8 12.8 12.0 2.5 4.6 20.2 52.4
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2015E 16,879 2,716 1.84 34.4 1.84 34.4 1.00 8.05 2015E 9.5 9.5 8.5 2.2 5.7 24.4 29.4
2016E 17,667 2,990 2.03 10.1 2.03 10.1 1.10 9.13 2016E 8.6 8.6 7.8 1.9 6.3 23.6 26.7
Figure 1: Project launches 2015
1 2 3 4‐6 7
Lumpini Park Beach Chaam Lumpini Ville Nakorn in‐Riverview Lumpini Mixx Theparak‐Srinakharin +Additional projects Lumpini Township Rangsit Klong1 (ph 2) Total
Value (Btmn) 1,000 2,000 1,600 5,000 2,000 11,600
Unit 413 1,544 1,900 ‐ ‐ ‐
Launch 1Q15 2Q15 2Q15 4Q15 4Q15
Finish 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Inventory and value of projects under construction
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research Figure 3: Major assumptions Revenue Residential sales
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
12,950
13,871
12,321
16,301
17,061
Rent
40
43
51
55
57
Property management
335
432
495
522
548
13,325
14,347
12,867
16,879
17,667
Residential sales
7.6
7.1
‐11.2
32.3
4.7
Rent
‐2.0
7.3
18.9
5.8
3.6
Property management
29.0
29.1
14.4
5.0
5.0
Total
8.0
7.7
‐10.3
31.2
4.7
Gross margin (%)
Residential sales
32.5
32.9
32.5
31.0
32.0
Rent
43.3
49.2
50.1
48.0
48.0
Property management
27.2
25.6
26.6
28.0
28.0
Total
32.4
32.7
32.4
31.0
31.9
16.6
16.2
15.7
16.1
16.9
Total Growth YoY (%)
NPM Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2012 13,325 (9,008) 4,317 (1,547) 2,837 35 2,802 (10) 32 2,917 (688) 0 49 68 2,229 1.51 1.51 2,192 1.49 0.76
2013 14,347 (9,657) 4,690 (1,779) 2,990 37 2,953 (12) 42 2,954 (625) 0 0 0 2,329 1.58 1.58 2,329 1.58 0.84
2014 12,867 (8,704) 4,163 (1,679) 2,600 39 2,561 (21) 78 2,555 (534) 0 0 0 2,021 1.37 1.37 2,021 1.37 0.80
2015E 16,879 (11,653) 5,226 (1,857) 3,446 41 3,405 (20) 36 3,395 (679) 0 0 0 2,716 1.84 1.84 2,716 1.84 1.00
2016E 17,667 (12,026) 5,641 (1,930) 3,791 43 3,748 (20) 38 3,738 (748) 0 0 0 2,990 2.03 2.03 2,990 2.03 1.10
2012 1,168 222 2,750 1,541 8,149 14,021 1,837 1,008 5,539 1,476 8,482 14,021
2013 1,192 130 3,500 1,189 11,203 17,420 5,148 140 7,794 1,476 9,626 17,420
2014 1,113 232 4,957 1,702 11,522 19,784 4,986 1,583 9,375 1,476 10,408 19,784
2015E 1,000 236 4,150 1,697 12,124 19,484 3,033 1,465 7,599 1,476 11,885 19,484
2016E 1,000 247 3,954 1,742 14,068 21,290 2,905 1,697 7,817 1,476 13,473 21,290
2012 2,229 (141) 35 (2,812) (689) 320 0 320 2,223 0 (981) 0 1,242 873 (687) (0.47)
2013 2,329 (392) 37 (3,212) (1,238) (12) 0 (12) 2,439 0 (1,165) 0 1,274 24 (904) (0.61)
2014 2,021 (279) 39 (1,847) (66) (52) (66) (118) 1,279 0 (1,239) 0 40 (144) 12 0.01
2015E 2,716 12 41 559 3,328 (99) 66 (33) (2,075) 0 (1,240) (29) (3,343) (47) 3,215 2.18
2016E 2,990 15 43 (1,681) 1,367 (49) 0 (49) 101 0 (1,402) (17) (1,318) 0 1,304 0.88
2012 8.0 5.5 16.3 32.4 21.3 21.0 16.7 16.4 23.6
2013 7.7 5.4 4.5 32.7 20.8 20.6 16.2 16.2 21.2
2014 (10.3) (13.0) (13.2) 32.4 20.2 19.9 15.7 15.7 20.9
2015E 31.2 32.5 34.4 31.0 20.4 20.2 16.1 16.1 20.0
2016E 4.7 10.0 10.1 31.9 21.5 21.2 16.9 16.9 20.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of KOOL.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt17.50
Property Development September 25, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Revise down 2015 presales 15% but doesn’t affect net profit Price Performance (%)
Source: Setsmart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.777
1.957
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
3.5%
3.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
LPN.BK/ LPN TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,475.70
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
26.00/712.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
39.00/25.35
52 week High / Low (Bt)
25.75/14.20
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
5,548.00
NVDR (%)
12.53
Estimated free float (%)
79.91
Beta
1.13
URL
www.lpn.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
Level 2 (Declared)
Maintain Buy with 16E TP of Bt20 (10x PER) LPN has lowered its 2015 presales target by 15% from its previous target. However, we maintain our 2015‐16E core profit because the postponed projects will be realized as revenue from 2017 onward. We expect LPN’s net profit to peak in 3Q15. Moreover, LPN will be the prime beneficiary if the government implements a property stimulus package, i.e., tax incentives for buyers. Hence, we maintain Buy. Revised down 2015 presales target to Bt17bn LPN has revised down the 2015 presales target to Bt17bn from its previous target of Bt20bn because the company reduced 2015 new project launches from 11 projects (Bt21bn) to eight projects (Bt12bn). This resulted from the unfavorable economic climate, which does not justify opening some projects this year. 8M15 presales secure 65% of full‐year target LPN's 8M15 presales were equal to Bt11bn (‐9.1% YoY), which is sufficient to secure 65% of the company's new target of Bt17bn. In 4Q15, LPN plans to launch four projects with a combined value of Bt7bn. Furthermore, the company had units available for sales amounting to Bt13bn at end 2Q15. Therefore, we assume that LPN will be able to achieve its new 2015 target at Bt17bn, which is 9.5% below our previous assumption at Bt18.8bn. Maintain 2015‐16E core profit We maintain the 2015‐2016E core profit at Bt2.7bn (+34.4% YoY) and Bt3.0bn (+10.1% YoY), respectively, due to the fact that new project launches delayed to next year will be realized as revenue from 2017 onward. LPN’s 2Q15 backlog is sufficient to secure 97% of our 2015E transfer revenue. Furthermore, it is enough to secure 58% of our 2016E transfer revenue. The remaining 42% of our transfer revenue estimate for next year will come from inventory and units available for sales of Bt13bn that could be realized as revenue in 2016. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btm) Net profit (Btm) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2012 13,325 2,229 1.51 16.3 1.49 14.8 0.76 5.75 2012 11.6 11.8 9.7 3.0 4.3 28.6 19.8
2013 14,347 2,329 1.58 4.5 1.58 6.2 0.84 6.52 2013 11.1 11.1 10.0 2.7 4.8 25.7 42.6
2014 12,867 2,021 1.37 ‐13.2 1.37 ‐13.2 0.80 7.05 2014 12.8 12.8 12.0 2.5 4.6 20.2 52.4
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2015E 16,879 2,716 1.84 34.4 1.84 34.4 1.00 8.05 2015E 9.5 9.5 8.5 2.2 5.7 24.4 29.4
2016E 17,667 2,990 2.03 10.1 2.03 10.1 1.10 9.13 2016E 8.6 8.6 7.8 1.9 6.3 23.6 26.7
Figure 1: Project launches 2015
1 2 3 4‐6 7
Lumpini Park Beach Chaam Lumpini Ville Nakorn in‐Riverview Lumpini Mixx Theparak‐Srinakharin +Additional projects Lumpini Township Rangsit Klong1 (ph 2) Total
Value (Btmn) 1,000 2,000 1,600 5,000 2,000 11,600
Unit 413 1,544 1,900 ‐ ‐ ‐
Launch 1Q15 2Q15 2Q15 4Q15 4Q15
Finish 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Inventory and value of projects under construction
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research Figure 3: Major assumptions Revenue Residential sales
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
12,950
13,871
12,321
16,301
17,061
Rent
40
43
51
55
57
Property management
335
432
495
522
548
13,325
14,347
12,867
16,879
17,667
Residential sales
7.6
7.1
‐11.2
32.3
4.7
Rent
‐2.0
7.3
18.9
5.8
3.6
Property management
29.0
29.1
14.4
5.0
5.0
Total
8.0
7.7
‐10.3
31.2
4.7
Gross margin (%)
Residential sales
32.5
32.9
32.5
31.0
32.0
Rent
43.3
49.2
50.1
48.0
48.0
Property management
27.2
25.6
26.6
28.0
28.0
Total
32.4
32.7
32.4
31.0
31.9
16.6
16.2
15.7
16.1
16.9
Total Growth YoY (%)
NPM Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2012 13,325 (9,008) 4,317 (1,547) 2,837 35 2,802 (10) 32 2,917 (688) 0 49 68 2,229 1.51 1.51 2,192 1.49 0.76
2013 14,347 (9,657) 4,690 (1,779) 2,990 37 2,953 (12) 42 2,954 (625) 0 0 0 2,329 1.58 1.58 2,329 1.58 0.84
2014 12,867 (8,704) 4,163 (1,679) 2,600 39 2,561 (21) 78 2,555 (534) 0 0 0 2,021 1.37 1.37 2,021 1.37 0.80
2015E 16,879 (11,653) 5,226 (1,857) 3,446 41 3,405 (20) 36 3,395 (679) 0 0 0 2,716 1.84 1.84 2,716 1.84 1.00
2016E 17,667 (12,026) 5,641 (1,930) 3,791 43 3,748 (20) 38 3,738 (748) 0 0 0 2,990 2.03 2.03 2,990 2.03 1.10
2012 1,168 222 2,750 1,541 8,149 14,021 1,837 1,008 5,539 1,476 8,482 14,021
2013 1,192 130 3,500 1,189 11,203 17,420 5,148 140 7,794 1,476 9,626 17,420
2014 1,113 232 4,957 1,702 11,522 19,784 4,986 1,583 9,375 1,476 10,408 19,784
2015E 1,000 236 4,150 1,697 12,124 19,484 3,033 1,465 7,599 1,476 11,885 19,484
2016E 1,000 247 3,954 1,742 14,068 21,290 2,905 1,697 7,817 1,476 13,473 21,290
2012 2,229 (141) 35 (2,812) (689) 320 0 320 2,223 0 (981) 0 1,242 873 (687) (0.47)
2013 2,329 (392) 37 (3,212) (1,238) (12) 0 (12) 2,439 0 (1,165) 0 1,274 24 (904) (0.61)
2014 2,021 (279) 39 (1,847) (66) (52) (66) (118) 1,279 0 (1,239) 0 40 (144) 12 0.01
2015E 2,716 12 41 559 3,328 (99) 66 (33) (2,075) 0 (1,240) (29) (3,343) (47) 3,215 2.18
2016E 2,990 15 43 (1,681) 1,367 (49) 0 (49) 101 0 (1,402) (17) (1,318) 0 1,304 0.88
2012 8.0 5.5 16.3 32.4 21.3 21.0 16.7 16.4 23.6
2013 7.7 5.4 4.5 32.7 20.8 20.6 16.2 16.2 21.2
2014 (10.3) (13.0) (13.2) 32.4 20.2 19.9 15.7 15.7 20.9
2015E 31.2 32.5 34.4 31.0 20.4 20.2 16.1 16.1 20.0
2016E 4.7 10.0 10.1 31.9 21.5 21.2 16.9 16.9 20.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of KOOL.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
