LPN Development
L.P.N. Development Sell (17E TP Bt9.00) Company Update
Close Bt11.70
Earnings upgrade /Earnings downgrade /Overview unchanged
Property Development July 4, 2017
Hard times not yet over Price Performance (%) Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.470
1.053
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐25.2%
25.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
LPN.BK/ LPN TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,475.70
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
17.00/508.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
39.00/32.84
52 week High / Low (Bt)
13.70/9.80
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
8,374.00 4.69
Estimated free float (%)
81.17
Beta
0.97
URL
www.lpn.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
Level 2 (Declared)
Maintain Sell with the 17E TP at Bt9 We maintain our 2017‐18E net profit, which already has backlog secured by 59% and 37% of the 2017‐18E transfer forecasts, respectively. LPN’s current price reflects the market’s anticipation of 2018E earnings recovery on the good presales of newly‐launched projects in 2017E; However, the hard times are not yet over as LPN’s inventory and condos to be finished at end 2Q17 worth Bt12.6bn will remain a burden for the company to destock; hence, we maintain our Sell rating at the 17E TP of Bt9. 2Q17 presales rose 97.0% YoY but declined 15.2% QoQ, mainly from new projects sold LPN’s 2Q17 presales were Bt4.35bn (+97.0% YoY, ‐15.2% QoQ). They comprised i) new project presales amounting to Bt2.57bn, including 2Q17 project launches, namely, Lumpini Suite Dindaeng‐Ratchprarop (Bt1.75bn, 54% sold) and The Selected Kaset‐Ngamwongwan (Bt1bn, 100% sold) and ii) inventory sold of Bt1.78bn. The 6M17 presales were Bt9.48bn, increasing 111.5% YoY, mainly driven by seven new projects worth Bt8.35bn with average sales of 67% and the rest from inventory sold. Plans to launch three projects worth Bt8.65bn in 2H17E LPN plans to launch three projects worth Bt8.65bn in 3Q17E and 4Q17E, with all projects expected to realize revenue by 2018E. The projects are in the mid‐to‐high end segment and located in urban areas, namely, Lumpini Suite Phaholyothin 32 (Bt2bn), Lumpini Place Sathu Pradit‐ Ratchadaphisek (Bt1.65bn), and mixed‐used condos and housing at the Industrial Ring Road worth Bt5bn. 2Q17E earnings to decline YoY and QoQ We preliminarily estimate that the 2Q17E earnings will be Bt225mn, decreasing 74.4% YoY and 28.6% QoQ, as its 2Q17E transfers were Bt1.6bn (‐67.9% YoY, ‐29.4% QoQ). 3Q17E earnings will be the lowest point of the year LPN’s backlog at the end of 2Q17 was Bt7.2bn, comprising Bt2.5bn that will mostly be realized in 4Q17E and additional backlog of Bt4.7bn to be realized in 2018E. This implies that the 3Q17E revenue depends on LPN’s new sales and transfers from its inventory in the same quarter. To cope with this situation, LPN plans to sell its stock, which was still high at Bt8.2bn in 2Q17, with the help of the company’s sales promotions and via Thai and foreign agencies. With minimal backlog to be transferred and higher selling expenses to drive sales, we expect the 3Q17E earnings to be the lowest of the year and the 4Q17E earnings will subsequently improve QoQ. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 12,867 2,021 1.37 (13.2) 1.37 (13.2) 0.80 7.05 2014 8.5 8.5 8.7 1.7 6.8 20.2 52.4
2015 16,627 2,413 1.64 19.4 1.64 19.4 0.90 7.85 2015 7.2 7.2 6.8 1.5 7.7 22.0 37.9
2016 14,602 2,176 1.47 (9.8) 1.46 (10.4) 0.90 8.41 2016 7.9 8.0 7.6 1.4 7.7 18.1 29.7
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2017E 11,605 1,625 1.10 (25.3) 1.10 (24.8) 0.55 8.66 2017E 10.6 10.6 10.5 1.4 4.7 12.9 39.2
2018E 13,673 1,948 1.32 19.9 1.32 19.9 0.66 9.38 2018E 8.9 8.9 9.3 1.2 5.6 14.6 44.8
Figure 1: Quarterly presales
Figure 2: Condo completion schedule
Btmn
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
6M17
6M16
2Q17
1Q17
4Q16
3Q16
2Q16
1Q16
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 ‐
Btmn 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 ‐ 1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
4Q17
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2014 12,867 (8,704) 4,163 (1,679) 2,600 39 2,561 (21) 78 2,555 (534) 0 0 0 2,021 1.37 1.37 2,021 1.37 0.80
2015 16,627 (11,476) 5,151 (2,066) 3,167 47 3,120 (11) 35 3,121 (707) 0 0 0 2,413 1.64 1.64 2,413 1.64 0.90
2016 14,602 (10,041) 4,560 (1,867) 2,772 51 2,721 (6) 27 2,737 (561) 0 15 0 2,176 1.47 1.47 2,161 1.46 0.90
2017E 11,605 (8,169) 3,436 (1,395) 2,116 53 2,062 (15) 21 2,057 (432) 0 0 0 1,625 1.10 1.10 1,625 1.10 0.55
2018E 13,673 (9,562) 4,111 (1,660) 2,532 55 2,477 (20) 26 2,467 (518) 0 0 0 1,948 1.32 1.32 1,948 1.32 0.66
2014 1,113 232 4,957 1,702 11,522 19,784 4,986 1,583 9,375 1,476 10,408 19,784
2015 758 140 5,589 2,003 10,703 19,625 2,934 2,209 8,044 1,476 11,581 19,625
2016 621 226 8,511 1,980 6,645 18,558 3,183 1,126 6,147 1,476 12,411 18,558
2017E 500 174 5,595 2,016 11,433 20,051 3,294 2,222 7,272 1,476 12,779 20,051
2018E 500 205 6,549 2,051 12,907 22,587 5,136 1,572 8,746 1,476 13,841 22,587
2014 2,021 (279) 39 (1,847) (66) (52) (66) (118) 1,279 0 (1,239) 0 40 (144) 12 0.01
2015 2,413 (191) 47 379 2,647 (322) 66 (256) (1,444) 0 (1,240) 0 (2,684) (292) 2,556 1.73
2016 2,176 (330) 51 313 2,210 (181) (30) (212) (837) 0 (1,328) 0 (2,165) (167) 2,521 1.71
2017E 1,625 25 53 (1,901) (197) (49) 30 (19) 802 0 (1,254) 577 125 (91) (270) (0.18)
2018E 1,948 25 55 (2,241) (212) (49) 0 (49) 1,577 0 (886) (430) 261 0 (285) (0.19)
2014 (10.3) (13.0) (13.2) 32.4 20.2 19.9 15.7 15.7 20.9
2015 29.2 21.8 19.4 31.0 19.0 18.8 14.5 14.5 22.7
2016 (12.2) (12.5) (9.8) 31.2 19.0 18.6 14.9 14.8 20.5
2017E (20.5) (23.7) (25.3) 29.6 18.2 17.8 14.0 14.0 21.0
2018E 17.8 19.7 19.9 30.1 18.5 18.1 14.3 14.3 21.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TTL, NMG, SAWAD, TFD. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of the IPO of BGRIM.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
Close Bt11.70
Earnings upgrade /Earnings downgrade /Overview unchanged
Property Development July 4, 2017
Hard times not yet over Price Performance (%) Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.470
1.053
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐25.2%
25.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
LPN.BK/ LPN TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,475.70
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
17.00/508.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
39.00/32.84
52 week High / Low (Bt)
13.70/9.80
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
8,374.00 4.69
Estimated free float (%)
81.17
Beta
0.97
URL
www.lpn.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
Level 2 (Declared)
Maintain Sell with the 17E TP at Bt9 We maintain our 2017‐18E net profit, which already has backlog secured by 59% and 37% of the 2017‐18E transfer forecasts, respectively. LPN’s current price reflects the market’s anticipation of 2018E earnings recovery on the good presales of newly‐launched projects in 2017E; However, the hard times are not yet over as LPN’s inventory and condos to be finished at end 2Q17 worth Bt12.6bn will remain a burden for the company to destock; hence, we maintain our Sell rating at the 17E TP of Bt9. 2Q17 presales rose 97.0% YoY but declined 15.2% QoQ, mainly from new projects sold LPN’s 2Q17 presales were Bt4.35bn (+97.0% YoY, ‐15.2% QoQ). They comprised i) new project presales amounting to Bt2.57bn, including 2Q17 project launches, namely, Lumpini Suite Dindaeng‐Ratchprarop (Bt1.75bn, 54% sold) and The Selected Kaset‐Ngamwongwan (Bt1bn, 100% sold) and ii) inventory sold of Bt1.78bn. The 6M17 presales were Bt9.48bn, increasing 111.5% YoY, mainly driven by seven new projects worth Bt8.35bn with average sales of 67% and the rest from inventory sold. Plans to launch three projects worth Bt8.65bn in 2H17E LPN plans to launch three projects worth Bt8.65bn in 3Q17E and 4Q17E, with all projects expected to realize revenue by 2018E. The projects are in the mid‐to‐high end segment and located in urban areas, namely, Lumpini Suite Phaholyothin 32 (Bt2bn), Lumpini Place Sathu Pradit‐ Ratchadaphisek (Bt1.65bn), and mixed‐used condos and housing at the Industrial Ring Road worth Bt5bn. 2Q17E earnings to decline YoY and QoQ We preliminarily estimate that the 2Q17E earnings will be Bt225mn, decreasing 74.4% YoY and 28.6% QoQ, as its 2Q17E transfers were Bt1.6bn (‐67.9% YoY, ‐29.4% QoQ). 3Q17E earnings will be the lowest point of the year LPN’s backlog at the end of 2Q17 was Bt7.2bn, comprising Bt2.5bn that will mostly be realized in 4Q17E and additional backlog of Bt4.7bn to be realized in 2018E. This implies that the 3Q17E revenue depends on LPN’s new sales and transfers from its inventory in the same quarter. To cope with this situation, LPN plans to sell its stock, which was still high at Bt8.2bn in 2Q17, with the help of the company’s sales promotions and via Thai and foreign agencies. With minimal backlog to be transferred and higher selling expenses to drive sales, we expect the 3Q17E earnings to be the lowest of the year and the 4Q17E earnings will subsequently improve QoQ. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 12,867 2,021 1.37 (13.2) 1.37 (13.2) 0.80 7.05 2014 8.5 8.5 8.7 1.7 6.8 20.2 52.4
2015 16,627 2,413 1.64 19.4 1.64 19.4 0.90 7.85 2015 7.2 7.2 6.8 1.5 7.7 22.0 37.9
2016 14,602 2,176 1.47 (9.8) 1.46 (10.4) 0.90 8.41 2016 7.9 8.0 7.6 1.4 7.7 18.1 29.7
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2017E 11,605 1,625 1.10 (25.3) 1.10 (24.8) 0.55 8.66 2017E 10.6 10.6 10.5 1.4 4.7 12.9 39.2
2018E 13,673 1,948 1.32 19.9 1.32 19.9 0.66 9.38 2018E 8.9 8.9 9.3 1.2 5.6 14.6 44.8
Figure 1: Quarterly presales
Figure 2: Condo completion schedule
Btmn
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
6M17
6M16
2Q17
1Q17
4Q16
3Q16
2Q16
1Q16
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 ‐
Btmn 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 ‐ 1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
4Q17
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2014 12,867 (8,704) 4,163 (1,679) 2,600 39 2,561 (21) 78 2,555 (534) 0 0 0 2,021 1.37 1.37 2,021 1.37 0.80
2015 16,627 (11,476) 5,151 (2,066) 3,167 47 3,120 (11) 35 3,121 (707) 0 0 0 2,413 1.64 1.64 2,413 1.64 0.90
2016 14,602 (10,041) 4,560 (1,867) 2,772 51 2,721 (6) 27 2,737 (561) 0 15 0 2,176 1.47 1.47 2,161 1.46 0.90
2017E 11,605 (8,169) 3,436 (1,395) 2,116 53 2,062 (15) 21 2,057 (432) 0 0 0 1,625 1.10 1.10 1,625 1.10 0.55
2018E 13,673 (9,562) 4,111 (1,660) 2,532 55 2,477 (20) 26 2,467 (518) 0 0 0 1,948 1.32 1.32 1,948 1.32 0.66
2014 1,113 232 4,957 1,702 11,522 19,784 4,986 1,583 9,375 1,476 10,408 19,784
2015 758 140 5,589 2,003 10,703 19,625 2,934 2,209 8,044 1,476 11,581 19,625
2016 621 226 8,511 1,980 6,645 18,558 3,183 1,126 6,147 1,476 12,411 18,558
2017E 500 174 5,595 2,016 11,433 20,051 3,294 2,222 7,272 1,476 12,779 20,051
2018E 500 205 6,549 2,051 12,907 22,587 5,136 1,572 8,746 1,476 13,841 22,587
2014 2,021 (279) 39 (1,847) (66) (52) (66) (118) 1,279 0 (1,239) 0 40 (144) 12 0.01
2015 2,413 (191) 47 379 2,647 (322) 66 (256) (1,444) 0 (1,240) 0 (2,684) (292) 2,556 1.73
2016 2,176 (330) 51 313 2,210 (181) (30) (212) (837) 0 (1,328) 0 (2,165) (167) 2,521 1.71
2017E 1,625 25 53 (1,901) (197) (49) 30 (19) 802 0 (1,254) 577 125 (91) (270) (0.18)
2018E 1,948 25 55 (2,241) (212) (49) 0 (49) 1,577 0 (886) (430) 261 0 (285) (0.19)
2014 (10.3) (13.0) (13.2) 32.4 20.2 19.9 15.7 15.7 20.9
2015 29.2 21.8 19.4 31.0 19.0 18.8 14.5 14.5 22.7
2016 (12.2) (12.5) (9.8) 31.2 19.0 18.6 14.9 14.8 20.5
2017E (20.5) (23.7) (25.3) 29.6 18.2 17.8 14.0 14.0 21.0
2018E 17.8 19.7 19.9 30.1 18.5 18.1 14.3 14.3 21.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TTL, NMG, SAWAD, TFD. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of the IPO of BGRIM.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. over the next 12 months
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KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
