LPN Development
L.P.N. Development Buy (16E TP Bt20.50)
Earnings Review
Close Bt17.60
Property Development November 6, 2015
Beat forecast /Below forecast/In line
3Q15 earnings better than expected Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.773
1.953
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
8.3%
5%
Reuters / Bloomberg
LPN.BK/LPN TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,475.70
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
26.00/730.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
39.00/25.43
52 week High / Low (Bt)
25.75/14.20
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
5,649.00
NVDR (%)
12.37
Estimated free float (%)
79.91
Beta
1.05
URL
www.lpn.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
Upgrade to Buy with 16E TP of Bt20.50 (10x PER) We maintain the 16E TP of Bt20.50 but upgrade our rating to Buy from Outperform as the upside is now more than 15%. LPN still has short‐term catalysts from a reduction in transfer fee expenses on the transfer fee cut from 1% to 0.01% for six months, which will improve its earnings during 4Q15‐2Q16. 3Q15 earnings increase both YoY and QoQ LPN reported 3Q15 net profit of Bt1bn (+80.2% YoY, +22.9% QoQ), 5% better than our forecast, mainly due to its SG&A being lower than our estimate by 7%. The transfer revenue was in line at Bt5.9bn (+72.9% YoY, +17.0% QoQ) on the back of high transfers from condos completed in 2Q15, i.e., Lumpini Park Ratanathibet‐Ngamwongwan (Bt4bn, 45% transferred in 3Q15) and Lumpini Place Srinakarin‐Huamark Station (Bt3bn, 14% transferred in 3Q15), and a newly completed condo in 3Q15, i.e., Lumpini Park Rama 9‐Ratchada, which had an impressive transfer rate at 91% of its total value of Bt2.6bn. The GPM was also in line at 30.9%. Maintain 2015E net earnings LPN's 9M15 net profit of Bt2.1bn secures 75% of our full‐year estimate of Bt2.8bn (+39.9% YoY), which we maintain as we expect net earnings to ease again in 4Q15. This is because its transfer revenue will be derived from the rest of the 2015 backlog of Bt2.7bn that includes one completed condo project, i.e., Lumpini Township Rangsit‐Klong 1 Phase 1 (Bt3.4bn, 84% sold), which started transferring in this quarter. 10M15 presales secure 74% of full‐year target LPN's 10M15 presales are equal to Bt12.6bn (‐11% YoY), securing 74% of the company's full‐year target of Bt17bn. LPN plans to launch three new projects with a total value of Bt5bn in 4Q15 and also has units available for sales of around Bt10bn. Hence, we assume that LPN will be able to achieve its 2015 target at Bt17bn on the back of the government’s property stimulus package.
Financials and Valuation Level 2 (Declared)
FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btm) Net profit (Btm) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2012 13,325 2,229 1.51 16.3 1.49 14.8 0.76 5.75 2012 11.7 11.9 9.7 3.1 4.3 28.6 19.8
2013 14,347 2,329 1.58 4.5 1.58 6.2 0.84 6.52 2013 11.2 11.2 10.1 2.7 4.8 25.7 42.6
2014 12,867 2,021 1.37 (13.2) 1.37 (13.2) 0.80 7.05 2014 12.8 12.8 12.1 2.5 4.5 20.2 52.4
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
2015E 18,037 2,829 1.92 39.9 1.92 39.9 1.00 8.13 2015E 9.2 9.2 7.8 2.2 5.7 25.3 20.4
2016E 18,059 3,027 2.05 7.0 2.05 7.0 1.10 9.23 2016E 8.6 8.6 7.2 1.9 6.3 23.6 15.3
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn)
FY Ended 31 Dec
3Q14
2Q15
3Q15
% YoY
% QoQ
9M15
% YoY
2015E
% YoY
Revenue from project sales Total revenue Gross profit
3,399 3,539 1,119
5,025 5,181 1,587
5,877 6,041 1,849
72.9 70.7 65.2
17.0 16.6 16.5
12,939 13,404 4,130
59.0 56.9 50.9
17,418 18,037 5,563
41.4 40.2 33.6
YTD (% 2015E) 74.3 74.3 74.3
EBITDA
714
1,054
1,286
80.2
22.1
2,716
65.4
3,626
39.5
74.9
Interest expense
(4)
(6)
(3)
(21.4)
(50.5)
(10)
(31.8)
(18)
(13.2)
55.2
Other income
8
8
4
(45.0)
(46.3)
25
(14.0)
45
(41.7)
56.3
(141)
(219)
(264)
87.3
20.3
(558)
69.0
(752)
40.9
74.2
561
822
1,011
80.2
22.9
2,125
66.2
2,829
39.9
75.1
Income tax Net profit (loss)
Core net profit (loss)
561
822
1,011
80.2
22.9
2,125
66.2
2,829
39.9
75.1
Reported EPS (THB)
0.38
0.56
0.69
80.2
22.9
1.44
66.2
1.92
39.9
75.1
Core EPS (THB)
0.38
0.56
0.69
80.2
22.9
1.44
66.2
1.92
39.9
75.1
Gross margin – project sales (%)
31.7
30.8
30.9
31.0
31.0
Gross margin ‐ overall (%)
31.6
30.6
30.6
30.8
30.8
EBITDA margin (%)
20.2
20.3
21.3
20.3
20.1
Net margin (%)
15.9
15.9
16.7
15.9
15.7
Current ratio (x)
2.2
2.1
2.9
2.9
3.5
177.6
165.8
409.3
270.2
199.2
Debt / equity (x)
1.0
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.6
BVPS (Bt)
6.55
7.27
7.65
7.65
8.13
ROE (%)
20.3
18.6
22.6
22.6
25.3
Interest coverage (x)
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research Figure 2: Project launches in 2015
1 2 3 4‐5 6
Lumpini Park Beach Chaam Lumpini Ville Nakorn in‐Riverview Lumpini Mixx Theparak‐Srinakharin +Additional projects Lumpini Township Rangsit Klong1 (ph 2) Total
Value (Btmn) 1,000 2,000 1,600 3,000 2,000 9,600
Unit 413 1,544 1,900 ‐ ‐ ‐
Launch 1Q15 2Q15 2Q15 4Q15 4Q15
Finish 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research Figure 3: Quarterly presales
Figure 4: Condo completion schedule
16,000
Btmn 8,000
14,000
7,000
12,000
6,000
10,000
5,000
Btmn
4,000
8,000
3,000
6,000
2,000
4,000
1,000
2,000
‐
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
10M1410M15
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
3Q16
4Q16
Figure 5: Inventory and value of projects under construction
Source: LPN Figure 6: Backlogs
Source: LPN
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2012 13,325 (9,008) 4,317 (1,547) 2,837 35 2,802 (10) 32 2,917 (688) 0 49 68 2,229 1.51 1.51 2,192 1.49 0.76
2013 14,347 (9,657) 4,690 (1,779) 2,990 37 2,953 (12) 42 2,954 (625) 0 0 0 2,329 1.58 1.58 2,329 1.58 0.84
2014 12,867 (8,704) 4,163 (1,679) 2,600 39 2,561 (21) 78 2,555 (534) 0 0 0 2,021 1.37 1.37 2,021 1.37 0.80
2015E 18,037 (12,475) 5,563 (2,023) 3,626 41 3,585 (18) 45 3,581 (752) 0 0 0 2,829 1.92 1.92 2,829 1.92 1.00
2016E 18,059 (12,318) 5,741 (1,937) 3,885 43 3,842 (20) 38 3,832 (805) 0 0 0 3,027 2.05 2.05 3,027 2.05 1.10
2012 1,168 222 2,750 1,541 8,149 14,021 1,837 1,008 5,539 1,476 8,482 14,021
2013 1,192 130 3,500 1,189 11,203 17,420 5,148 140 7,794 1,476 9,626 17,420
2014 1,113 232 4,957 1,702 11,522 19,784 4,986 1,583 9,375 1,476 10,408 19,784
2015E 1,630 253 4,443 1,697 11,060 19,376 1,885 2,187 7,379 1,476 11,998 19,376
2016E 2,303 253 4,050 1,742 12,672 21,304 2,614 1,780 7,681 1,476 13,623 21,304
2012 2,229 (141) 35 (2,812) (689) 320 0 320 2,223 0 (981) 0 1,242 873 (687) (0.47)
2013 2,329 (392) 37 (3,212) (1,238) (12) 0 (12) 2,439 0 (1,165) 0 1,274 24 (904) (0.61)
2014 2,021 (279) 39 (1,847) (66) (52) (66) (118) 1,279 0 (1,239) 0 40 (144) 12 0.01
2015E 2,829 12 41 1,512 4,394 (99) 66 (33) (3,351) 0 (1,240) 812 (3,778) 583 4,281 2.90
2016E 3,027 15 43 (1,269) 1,816 (49) 0 (49) 318 0 (1,402) (11) (1,095) 673 1,753 1.19
2012 8.0 5.5 16.3 32.4 21.3 21.0 16.7 16.4 23.6
2013 7.7 5.4 4.5 32.7 20.8 20.6 16.2 16.2 21.2
2014 (10.3) (13.0) (13.2) 32.4 20.2 19.9 15.7 15.7 20.9
2015E 40.2 39.5 39.9 30.8 20.1 19.9 15.7 15.7 21.0
2016E 0.1 7.1 7.0 31.8 21.5 21.3 16.8 16.8 21.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, TFG, BRR. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of KOOL, ORI, SCI, SR.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
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th
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Earnings Review
Close Bt17.60
Property Development November 6, 2015
Beat forecast /Below forecast/In line
3Q15 earnings better than expected Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.773
1.953
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
8.3%
5%
Reuters / Bloomberg
LPN.BK/LPN TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,475.70
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
26.00/730.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
39.00/25.43
52 week High / Low (Bt)
25.75/14.20
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
5,649.00
NVDR (%)
12.37
Estimated free float (%)
79.91
Beta
1.05
URL
www.lpn.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
Upgrade to Buy with 16E TP of Bt20.50 (10x PER) We maintain the 16E TP of Bt20.50 but upgrade our rating to Buy from Outperform as the upside is now more than 15%. LPN still has short‐term catalysts from a reduction in transfer fee expenses on the transfer fee cut from 1% to 0.01% for six months, which will improve its earnings during 4Q15‐2Q16. 3Q15 earnings increase both YoY and QoQ LPN reported 3Q15 net profit of Bt1bn (+80.2% YoY, +22.9% QoQ), 5% better than our forecast, mainly due to its SG&A being lower than our estimate by 7%. The transfer revenue was in line at Bt5.9bn (+72.9% YoY, +17.0% QoQ) on the back of high transfers from condos completed in 2Q15, i.e., Lumpini Park Ratanathibet‐Ngamwongwan (Bt4bn, 45% transferred in 3Q15) and Lumpini Place Srinakarin‐Huamark Station (Bt3bn, 14% transferred in 3Q15), and a newly completed condo in 3Q15, i.e., Lumpini Park Rama 9‐Ratchada, which had an impressive transfer rate at 91% of its total value of Bt2.6bn. The GPM was also in line at 30.9%. Maintain 2015E net earnings LPN's 9M15 net profit of Bt2.1bn secures 75% of our full‐year estimate of Bt2.8bn (+39.9% YoY), which we maintain as we expect net earnings to ease again in 4Q15. This is because its transfer revenue will be derived from the rest of the 2015 backlog of Bt2.7bn that includes one completed condo project, i.e., Lumpini Township Rangsit‐Klong 1 Phase 1 (Bt3.4bn, 84% sold), which started transferring in this quarter. 10M15 presales secure 74% of full‐year target LPN's 10M15 presales are equal to Bt12.6bn (‐11% YoY), securing 74% of the company's full‐year target of Bt17bn. LPN plans to launch three new projects with a total value of Bt5bn in 4Q15 and also has units available for sales of around Bt10bn. Hence, we assume that LPN will be able to achieve its 2015 target at Bt17bn on the back of the government’s property stimulus package.
Financials and Valuation Level 2 (Declared)
FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btm) Net profit (Btm) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2012 13,325 2,229 1.51 16.3 1.49 14.8 0.76 5.75 2012 11.7 11.9 9.7 3.1 4.3 28.6 19.8
2013 14,347 2,329 1.58 4.5 1.58 6.2 0.84 6.52 2013 11.2 11.2 10.1 2.7 4.8 25.7 42.6
2014 12,867 2,021 1.37 (13.2) 1.37 (13.2) 0.80 7.05 2014 12.8 12.8 12.1 2.5 4.5 20.2 52.4
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
2015E 18,037 2,829 1.92 39.9 1.92 39.9 1.00 8.13 2015E 9.2 9.2 7.8 2.2 5.7 25.3 20.4
2016E 18,059 3,027 2.05 7.0 2.05 7.0 1.10 9.23 2016E 8.6 8.6 7.2 1.9 6.3 23.6 15.3
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn)
FY Ended 31 Dec
3Q14
2Q15
3Q15
% YoY
% QoQ
9M15
% YoY
2015E
% YoY
Revenue from project sales Total revenue Gross profit
3,399 3,539 1,119
5,025 5,181 1,587
5,877 6,041 1,849
72.9 70.7 65.2
17.0 16.6 16.5
12,939 13,404 4,130
59.0 56.9 50.9
17,418 18,037 5,563
41.4 40.2 33.6
YTD (% 2015E) 74.3 74.3 74.3
EBITDA
714
1,054
1,286
80.2
22.1
2,716
65.4
3,626
39.5
74.9
Interest expense
(4)
(6)
(3)
(21.4)
(50.5)
(10)
(31.8)
(18)
(13.2)
55.2
Other income
8
8
4
(45.0)
(46.3)
25
(14.0)
45
(41.7)
56.3
(141)
(219)
(264)
87.3
20.3
(558)
69.0
(752)
40.9
74.2
561
822
1,011
80.2
22.9
2,125
66.2
2,829
39.9
75.1
Income tax Net profit (loss)
Core net profit (loss)
561
822
1,011
80.2
22.9
2,125
66.2
2,829
39.9
75.1
Reported EPS (THB)
0.38
0.56
0.69
80.2
22.9
1.44
66.2
1.92
39.9
75.1
Core EPS (THB)
0.38
0.56
0.69
80.2
22.9
1.44
66.2
1.92
39.9
75.1
Gross margin – project sales (%)
31.7
30.8
30.9
31.0
31.0
Gross margin ‐ overall (%)
31.6
30.6
30.6
30.8
30.8
EBITDA margin (%)
20.2
20.3
21.3
20.3
20.1
Net margin (%)
15.9
15.9
16.7
15.9
15.7
Current ratio (x)
2.2
2.1
2.9
2.9
3.5
177.6
165.8
409.3
270.2
199.2
Debt / equity (x)
1.0
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.6
BVPS (Bt)
6.55
7.27
7.65
7.65
8.13
ROE (%)
20.3
18.6
22.6
22.6
25.3
Interest coverage (x)
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research Figure 2: Project launches in 2015
1 2 3 4‐5 6
Lumpini Park Beach Chaam Lumpini Ville Nakorn in‐Riverview Lumpini Mixx Theparak‐Srinakharin +Additional projects Lumpini Township Rangsit Klong1 (ph 2) Total
Value (Btmn) 1,000 2,000 1,600 3,000 2,000 9,600
Unit 413 1,544 1,900 ‐ ‐ ‐
Launch 1Q15 2Q15 2Q15 4Q15 4Q15
Finish 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research Figure 3: Quarterly presales
Figure 4: Condo completion schedule
16,000
Btmn 8,000
14,000
7,000
12,000
6,000
10,000
5,000
Btmn
4,000
8,000
3,000
6,000
2,000
4,000
1,000
2,000
‐
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
10M1410M15
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
Source: LPN, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
3Q16
4Q16
Figure 5: Inventory and value of projects under construction
Source: LPN Figure 6: Backlogs
Source: LPN
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2012 13,325 (9,008) 4,317 (1,547) 2,837 35 2,802 (10) 32 2,917 (688) 0 49 68 2,229 1.51 1.51 2,192 1.49 0.76
2013 14,347 (9,657) 4,690 (1,779) 2,990 37 2,953 (12) 42 2,954 (625) 0 0 0 2,329 1.58 1.58 2,329 1.58 0.84
2014 12,867 (8,704) 4,163 (1,679) 2,600 39 2,561 (21) 78 2,555 (534) 0 0 0 2,021 1.37 1.37 2,021 1.37 0.80
2015E 18,037 (12,475) 5,563 (2,023) 3,626 41 3,585 (18) 45 3,581 (752) 0 0 0 2,829 1.92 1.92 2,829 1.92 1.00
2016E 18,059 (12,318) 5,741 (1,937) 3,885 43 3,842 (20) 38 3,832 (805) 0 0 0 3,027 2.05 2.05 3,027 2.05 1.10
2012 1,168 222 2,750 1,541 8,149 14,021 1,837 1,008 5,539 1,476 8,482 14,021
2013 1,192 130 3,500 1,189 11,203 17,420 5,148 140 7,794 1,476 9,626 17,420
2014 1,113 232 4,957 1,702 11,522 19,784 4,986 1,583 9,375 1,476 10,408 19,784
2015E 1,630 253 4,443 1,697 11,060 19,376 1,885 2,187 7,379 1,476 11,998 19,376
2016E 2,303 253 4,050 1,742 12,672 21,304 2,614 1,780 7,681 1,476 13,623 21,304
2012 2,229 (141) 35 (2,812) (689) 320 0 320 2,223 0 (981) 0 1,242 873 (687) (0.47)
2013 2,329 (392) 37 (3,212) (1,238) (12) 0 (12) 2,439 0 (1,165) 0 1,274 24 (904) (0.61)
2014 2,021 (279) 39 (1,847) (66) (52) (66) (118) 1,279 0 (1,239) 0 40 (144) 12 0.01
2015E 2,829 12 41 1,512 4,394 (99) 66 (33) (3,351) 0 (1,240) 812 (3,778) 583 4,281 2.90
2016E 3,027 15 43 (1,269) 1,816 (49) 0 (49) 318 0 (1,402) (11) (1,095) 673 1,753 1.19
2012 8.0 5.5 16.3 32.4 21.3 21.0 16.7 16.4 23.6
2013 7.7 5.4 4.5 32.7 20.8 20.6 16.2 16.2 21.2
2014 (10.3) (13.0) (13.2) 32.4 20.2 19.9 15.7 15.7 20.9
2015E 40.2 39.5 39.9 30.8 20.1 19.9 15.7 15.7 21.0
2016E 0.1 7.1 7.0 31.8 21.5 21.3 16.8 16.8 21.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, TFG, BRR. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of KOOL, ORI, SCI, SR.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
