Monthly Report - Aljazira Capital
Monthly Report
October 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | September 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
TASI ended the month on 7,283.01 points, a 0.3% increase MoM compared to August 2017 .Total value traded stood at SAR 50.16bn. Banks and Basic Materials sectors accounted for 58.6% of the total value traded. Media and Materials were the best performing sectors, showing an increase of 7.3%MoM and 3.4%MoM respectively. While Food & Beverages and Telecom sectors were the worst performers showing a decline of 6.7% and 4.0% MoM respectively.
TASI Movement During September
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
7,500
8.50 7.50 6.50
7,400
5.50
TASI started the month at 7258.64 points and closed at 7,283.01 with an average daily value traded of SAR 3.14bn compared to 2.87bn in August.
4.50 7,300
3.50 2.50
7,200
6-Sep-17
13-Sep-17
20-Sep-17
Value Traded - RHS (billion)
28-Sep-17
1.50
Closing Price -LHS
Sectors Performance
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
95.0% 75.0% 55.0% 35.0%
1
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Real Estate
REITs
Utilities
Telecom
Insurance
Pharma & Bio Tech
Consumer Durables
Food & Staples
Utilities
Diversified Financials
Healthcare
Retailing
Telecom
Transportation
Commercial Service
Capital Goods
Energy
Consumer Services
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
REITs
Media
Real Estate
Food & Beverages
Insurance
Materials
40.0% 36.0% 32.0% 28.0% 24.0% 20.0% 16.0% 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Banks
Value Traded per Sector (%)
Diversified Financials
Banks
Healthcare
YTD
Pharma & Bio Tech
MoM Performance
Food & Beverages
Food & Staples
Retailing
Media
Consumer Services
Consumer Durables
Transportation
Commercial Service
Capital Goods
Materials
-25.0%
TASI
-5.0%
Energy
15.0%
On a YTD basis, TASI gained 72.58 points by end of September (up1.0%). Media and Retailing sectors showed the highest YTD increase of 76.0% and 26.7% respectively. On other hand Transportation and Pharma & Bio Tech were the worst performing sectors recording a decline of 21.5% and 19.3% respectively.
Banks and Basic Materials were the highest traded sectors, accounting for 35.7% and 22.9%, respectively, of total value traded in September. On the other hand, Pharma and Consumer Durables were the lowest, accounting for 0.1% and 0.5% respectively.
Monthly Report
October 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | September 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
GCC Market Performance
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
20.0%
On a Monthly basis, Oman was the best performing index, rising 1.7%MoM. Qatar was the worst performer recording a decline of 5.5%MoM.
15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0%
TASI
Dubai (DFMGI)
Abu dahbi (ADSMI)
Qatar
Kuwait
Monthly
Bahrain
Oman
YTD
Top/Worst Performing Companies (September 2017)
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
20.0% 15.0% 10.0%
Companies with lowest PE
Almarai
MALATH INSURANCE
SCC
City Cement
Herfy Foods
Amana Insurance
Alkhaleej Trng
-15.0%
Al-Ahlia
-10.0%
Nama Chemicals
0.0% -5.0%
Enaya
5.0%
On a monthly basis, Enaya was the best performing stock recording an increase of 16.6%MoM followed by Nama Chemicals which showed increase of 15.6%MoM. On the other hand, Almarai was the worst performing stock recording a 12.5% decline, followed by Malath Insurance which showed a decline of 10.1%MoM.
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
11.00
8.17
8.36
ARNB
Trade Union
9.13
Solidarity
8.05
9.08
saib
7.96
WALAA
7.19
7.87
Al-BABTAIN
7.00
7.81
Buruj
8.00
Arabian Shield
9.00
8.96
Zamil Indust
10.00
9.49
9.50
9.61
9.69
9.87
United Cooperative Assurance had the lowest P/E of 7.19x by the end of September, followed by Arabian Shield at 7.81x and Buruj at 7.87x.
6.00
2
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SCC
SAICO
samba
Gulf Union
BJAZ
4.00
UCA
5.00
Monthly Report
October 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | September 2017
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Economic Data SAIBOR
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
2.500
SAIBOR 3M
2.350
SAIBOR 6M
2.200 2.050
3-month and 6-month SAIBOR ended the month at 1.791% and 2.046% respectively. The 3-month and 6-month SAIBOR showed a decline of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
1.900 1.750 1.600 Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-16
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Inflation Rate
Sep-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
4.20%
Inflation rate stood at -0.1% in August compared to -0.3% in July 2017.
3.20% 2.20% 1.20% 0.20% -0.80%
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Deposits & loans
Aug-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
5.5%
90%
4.0%
88%
2.5%
86%
Change in Loans by Maturity (%)
Aug-17
May-17
Feb-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital 16.0%
45.0%
13.0% 10.0%
30.0%
7.0%
15.0%
4.0% 1.0%
0.0%
Less than 1 Year (%) -LHS
3
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1 to 3 year (%) -LHS
Above 3 year (%) -LHS
Aug-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
-2.0%
Aug-14
-15.0%
17
17
17
16
16
ADR(RHS)
16
16
15
Nov-16
Aug-16
May-16
Feb-16
Nov-15
Aug-15 15
15
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
15
Changes in Loans(LHS)
Changes In Deposits(LHS)
12
May-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Aug-14
May-14
Feb-14
78%
Nov-13
-3.5%
Aug-13
80%
May-13
-2.0%
Feb-13
82%
Nov-12
84%
-0.5%
Aug-12
1.0%
Deposits showed a decline of SAR 10.3bn (-0.6%MoM), while loans showed an increase of SAR 4.4 (0.3%MoM) by end of August.
-5.0%
Tota loan YoY Growth (%) -RHS
Total loans showed a decline of 1.0%YoY, the highest decline was for loans with maturity of 1-3 years which showed a decline of 7.8%YoY, while loans of maturity above 3 year showed an increase of 6.3%YoY.
Monthly Report
October 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | September 2017
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Change in Demand - Time and Saving Deposits
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
40,000
1,500,000
15,000
1,300,000
-10,000
1,100,000
-35,000
900,000
-60,000
700,000
Time & Savings Deposits (LHS)
Other Deposits (LHS)
Aug-17
Apr-17
Dec-16
Aug-16
Apr-16
Dec-15
Aug-15
Apr-15
Dec-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Dec-13
Aug-13
Apr-13
Dec-12
Aug-12
Demand Deposit (LHS)
SAR ('000)
1,700,000
SAR (Million)
65,000
Government Deposits ( includes all types of deposits)(RHS)
POS (Point of Sale)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital 64.0
20.0 18.0
54.0
34.0
Sales(bn) (LHS)
4
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No. of Transactions (mn) (RHS)
Aug-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-14
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
12.0
24.0
SAR ('000)
44.0 14.0
Aug-14
SAR (Million)
16.0
10.0
Demand deposits showed a decline in August of SAR 8.0bn (0.8%MoM), while Time & Saving deposits showed an increase of SAR 4.8 (1.0%MoM). On the other hand government deposits showed a decline of 1.0%MoM.
Point of Sales showed an increase in August of 10.5%MoM and stood at SAR 16.9bn, with total number of transactions standing at 62.7mn (up 15.2%).
Monthly Report
October 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | September 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Commodities Prices Oil Prices (USD) *
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
58
6
53 4 48 2
43
38 Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Spread(RHS)
Apr-17
Brent(LHS)
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
0
WTI(LHS)
Gold & Silver (% Monthly change)
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
20.0%
85
15.0%
80
10.0%
75
5.0%
70
0.0%
65
Changes in Gold Price(LHS)
Changes in Silver Price(LHS)
Copper
Sep-17
Jun-17
Mar-17
Dec-16
Sep-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
50
Mar-13
55
-15.0%
Dec-12
60
Sep-12
-5.0% -10.0%
Jun-16
Aug-16
Brent and WTI showed an increase of 9.9%MoM and 9.4%MoM respectively, and closed at $57.54 and $51.67 respectively.
Gold and Silver showed a decline of 3.2%MoM and 5.3%MoM respectively, and closed the month at $1279.8 and $16.7.
G/S(RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
3.200 3.000
Copper showed a decline of 4.0%MoM and ended the month at 2.955 USD/lb.
USD/Ib
2.800 2.600 2.400 2.200 2.000 Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Steel **
Jul-17
Sep-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
650.0
Steel showed a decline of 5.5%MoM and ended the month at 599.0 USD/ton.
USD/Ton
600.0
550.0
500.0
450.0
Sep-16
5
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
* November 2017 contract for Brent, October 2017 contract for WTI ** HRC1 Index
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Monthly Report
October 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | September 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Exchange Rate Dollar Index
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
104
Dollar Index showed an increase of 0.4%MoM by the end of September and stood at 93.08 points.
102 100 98 96 94 92 90
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
EUR/USD
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
1.23
Euro depreciated against the Dollar by 0.8%MoM and stood at 1.181 EUR/USD.
1.19
1.15
1.11
1.07
1.03 Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
USD/YUAN
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
6.95 6.85
YUAN depreciated by 1.0%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 6.653 YUAN/USD.
6.75 6.65 6.55 6.45 Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
USD/YEN
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
119
YEN depreciated by 2.3%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 112.51 YEN/USD.
116 113 110 107 104 101 98 Sep-16
6
Oct-16
Nov-16
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Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
RESEARCH DIVISION
Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi, CAIA
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256250 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr
Muhanad Al-Odan
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment
sales
brokerage
Centers
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 12 6618443 [email protected]
Central Region
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
Abdullah Al-Rahit
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
October 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | September 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
TASI ended the month on 7,283.01 points, a 0.3% increase MoM compared to August 2017 .Total value traded stood at SAR 50.16bn. Banks and Basic Materials sectors accounted for 58.6% of the total value traded. Media and Materials were the best performing sectors, showing an increase of 7.3%MoM and 3.4%MoM respectively. While Food & Beverages and Telecom sectors were the worst performers showing a decline of 6.7% and 4.0% MoM respectively.
TASI Movement During September
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
7,500
8.50 7.50 6.50
7,400
5.50
TASI started the month at 7258.64 points and closed at 7,283.01 with an average daily value traded of SAR 3.14bn compared to 2.87bn in August.
4.50 7,300
3.50 2.50
7,200
6-Sep-17
13-Sep-17
20-Sep-17
Value Traded - RHS (billion)
28-Sep-17
1.50
Closing Price -LHS
Sectors Performance
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
95.0% 75.0% 55.0% 35.0%
1
© All rights reserved
Real Estate
REITs
Utilities
Telecom
Insurance
Pharma & Bio Tech
Consumer Durables
Food & Staples
Utilities
Diversified Financials
Healthcare
Retailing
Telecom
Transportation
Commercial Service
Capital Goods
Energy
Consumer Services
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
REITs
Media
Real Estate
Food & Beverages
Insurance
Materials
40.0% 36.0% 32.0% 28.0% 24.0% 20.0% 16.0% 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Banks
Value Traded per Sector (%)
Diversified Financials
Banks
Healthcare
YTD
Pharma & Bio Tech
MoM Performance
Food & Beverages
Food & Staples
Retailing
Media
Consumer Services
Consumer Durables
Transportation
Commercial Service
Capital Goods
Materials
-25.0%
TASI
-5.0%
Energy
15.0%
On a YTD basis, TASI gained 72.58 points by end of September (up1.0%). Media and Retailing sectors showed the highest YTD increase of 76.0% and 26.7% respectively. On other hand Transportation and Pharma & Bio Tech were the worst performing sectors recording a decline of 21.5% and 19.3% respectively.
Banks and Basic Materials were the highest traded sectors, accounting for 35.7% and 22.9%, respectively, of total value traded in September. On the other hand, Pharma and Consumer Durables were the lowest, accounting for 0.1% and 0.5% respectively.
Monthly Report
October 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | September 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
GCC Market Performance
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
20.0%
On a Monthly basis, Oman was the best performing index, rising 1.7%MoM. Qatar was the worst performer recording a decline of 5.5%MoM.
15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0%
TASI
Dubai (DFMGI)
Abu dahbi (ADSMI)
Qatar
Kuwait
Monthly
Bahrain
Oman
YTD
Top/Worst Performing Companies (September 2017)
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
20.0% 15.0% 10.0%
Companies with lowest PE
Almarai
MALATH INSURANCE
SCC
City Cement
Herfy Foods
Amana Insurance
Alkhaleej Trng
-15.0%
Al-Ahlia
-10.0%
Nama Chemicals
0.0% -5.0%
Enaya
5.0%
On a monthly basis, Enaya was the best performing stock recording an increase of 16.6%MoM followed by Nama Chemicals which showed increase of 15.6%MoM. On the other hand, Almarai was the worst performing stock recording a 12.5% decline, followed by Malath Insurance which showed a decline of 10.1%MoM.
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
11.00
8.17
8.36
ARNB
Trade Union
9.13
Solidarity
8.05
9.08
saib
7.96
WALAA
7.19
7.87
Al-BABTAIN
7.00
7.81
Buruj
8.00
Arabian Shield
9.00
8.96
Zamil Indust
10.00
9.49
9.50
9.61
9.69
9.87
United Cooperative Assurance had the lowest P/E of 7.19x by the end of September, followed by Arabian Shield at 7.81x and Buruj at 7.87x.
6.00
2
© All rights reserved
SCC
SAICO
samba
Gulf Union
BJAZ
4.00
UCA
5.00
Monthly Report
October 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | September 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Economic Data SAIBOR
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
2.500
SAIBOR 3M
2.350
SAIBOR 6M
2.200 2.050
3-month and 6-month SAIBOR ended the month at 1.791% and 2.046% respectively. The 3-month and 6-month SAIBOR showed a decline of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
1.900 1.750 1.600 Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-16
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Inflation Rate
Sep-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
4.20%
Inflation rate stood at -0.1% in August compared to -0.3% in July 2017.
3.20% 2.20% 1.20% 0.20% -0.80%
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Deposits & loans
Aug-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
5.5%
90%
4.0%
88%
2.5%
86%
Change in Loans by Maturity (%)
Aug-17
May-17
Feb-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital 16.0%
45.0%
13.0% 10.0%
30.0%
7.0%
15.0%
4.0% 1.0%
0.0%
Less than 1 Year (%) -LHS
3
© All rights reserved
1 to 3 year (%) -LHS
Above 3 year (%) -LHS
Aug-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
-2.0%
Aug-14
-15.0%
17
17
17
16
16
ADR(RHS)
16
16
15
Nov-16
Aug-16
May-16
Feb-16
Nov-15
Aug-15 15
15
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
15
Changes in Loans(LHS)
Changes In Deposits(LHS)
12
May-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Aug-14
May-14
Feb-14
78%
Nov-13
-3.5%
Aug-13
80%
May-13
-2.0%
Feb-13
82%
Nov-12
84%
-0.5%
Aug-12
1.0%
Deposits showed a decline of SAR 10.3bn (-0.6%MoM), while loans showed an increase of SAR 4.4 (0.3%MoM) by end of August.
-5.0%
Tota loan YoY Growth (%) -RHS
Total loans showed a decline of 1.0%YoY, the highest decline was for loans with maturity of 1-3 years which showed a decline of 7.8%YoY, while loans of maturity above 3 year showed an increase of 6.3%YoY.
Monthly Report
October 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | September 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Change in Demand - Time and Saving Deposits
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
40,000
1,500,000
15,000
1,300,000
-10,000
1,100,000
-35,000
900,000
-60,000
700,000
Time & Savings Deposits (LHS)
Other Deposits (LHS)
Aug-17
Apr-17
Dec-16
Aug-16
Apr-16
Dec-15
Aug-15
Apr-15
Dec-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Dec-13
Aug-13
Apr-13
Dec-12
Aug-12
Demand Deposit (LHS)
SAR ('000)
1,700,000
SAR (Million)
65,000
Government Deposits ( includes all types of deposits)(RHS)
POS (Point of Sale)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital 64.0
20.0 18.0
54.0
34.0
Sales(bn) (LHS)
4
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No. of Transactions (mn) (RHS)
Aug-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-14
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
12.0
24.0
SAR ('000)
44.0 14.0
Aug-14
SAR (Million)
16.0
10.0
Demand deposits showed a decline in August of SAR 8.0bn (0.8%MoM), while Time & Saving deposits showed an increase of SAR 4.8 (1.0%MoM). On the other hand government deposits showed a decline of 1.0%MoM.
Point of Sales showed an increase in August of 10.5%MoM and stood at SAR 16.9bn, with total number of transactions standing at 62.7mn (up 15.2%).
Monthly Report
October 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | September 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Commodities Prices Oil Prices (USD) *
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
58
6
53 4 48 2
43
38 Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Spread(RHS)
Apr-17
Brent(LHS)
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
0
WTI(LHS)
Gold & Silver (% Monthly change)
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
20.0%
85
15.0%
80
10.0%
75
5.0%
70
0.0%
65
Changes in Gold Price(LHS)
Changes in Silver Price(LHS)
Copper
Sep-17
Jun-17
Mar-17
Dec-16
Sep-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
50
Mar-13
55
-15.0%
Dec-12
60
Sep-12
-5.0% -10.0%
Jun-16
Aug-16
Brent and WTI showed an increase of 9.9%MoM and 9.4%MoM respectively, and closed at $57.54 and $51.67 respectively.
Gold and Silver showed a decline of 3.2%MoM and 5.3%MoM respectively, and closed the month at $1279.8 and $16.7.
G/S(RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
3.200 3.000
Copper showed a decline of 4.0%MoM and ended the month at 2.955 USD/lb.
USD/Ib
2.800 2.600 2.400 2.200 2.000 Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Steel **
Jul-17
Sep-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
650.0
Steel showed a decline of 5.5%MoM and ended the month at 599.0 USD/ton.
USD/Ton
600.0
550.0
500.0
450.0
Sep-16
5
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
* November 2017 contract for Brent, October 2017 contract for WTI ** HRC1 Index
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Monthly Report
October 2017
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | September 2017
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Exchange Rate Dollar Index
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
104
Dollar Index showed an increase of 0.4%MoM by the end of September and stood at 93.08 points.
102 100 98 96 94 92 90
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
EUR/USD
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
1.23
Euro depreciated against the Dollar by 0.8%MoM and stood at 1.181 EUR/USD.
1.19
1.15
1.11
1.07
1.03 Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
USD/YUAN
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
6.95 6.85
YUAN depreciated by 1.0%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 6.653 YUAN/USD.
6.75 6.65 6.55 6.45 Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
USD/YEN
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
119
YEN depreciated by 2.3%MoM against the Dollar and stood at 112.51 YEN/USD.
116 113 110 107 104 101 98 Sep-16
6
Oct-16
Nov-16
© All rights reserved
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug -17
Sep-17
RESEARCH DIVISION
Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi, CAIA
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256250 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr
Muhanad Al-Odan
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment
sales
brokerage
Centers
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 12 6618443 [email protected]
Central Region
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
Abdullah Al-Rahit
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
