Monthly Report - Aljazira Capital
Monthly Report
February 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | January 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
TASI ended the month at 7650.12 points, a 5.9% increase MoM compared to December 2017 .Total value traded stood at SAR 81.97bn. Basic Materials and Real Estate sectors accounted for 52.7% of the total value traded. Banks and Healthcare were the best performing sectors, showing an increase of 11.2%MoM and 10.6%MoM respectively. While Real Estate and REITs were the worst performing sectors, showing a decline of 4.6% and 3.6%MoM respectively.
TASI Movement During January
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
7,700
5.00
7,600
4.50
7,500 4.00
7,400 7,300
TASI started the month at 7226.32 points and closed at 7650.12 with an average daily value traded of SAR 3.56bn compared to 4.16bn in December.
3.50
7,200 3.00
7,100
8-Jan-18
15-Jan-18
22-Jan-18 Closing Price - LHS
Value Traded(bn)-RHS
Sectors Performance
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
12.0%
Consumer Durables
9.0%
-3.6%
MoM Performance
Value Traded per Sector (%)
-4.6% Real Estate
Utilities
-0.7%
REITs
-1.3%
Telecom
Banks
Pharma & Bio Tech
-1.4% Food & Beverages
-3.2%
-0.6%
Healthcare
3.0%
Food & Staples
Transportation
-6.0%
-1.4% Commercial Service
-0.6% Capital Goods
Materials
-3.0%
Energy
TASI
0.0%
4.0%
Retailing
2.1%
4.8%
Media
3.7%
3.0%
9.3% 6.1%
Consumer Services
5.7%
TASI increased 423.8 points (up 5.9%MoM). Banks and Healthcare sectors showed the highest MoM increase of 11.2% and 10.6% respectively. On the other hand, Real Estate and REITs were the worst performing sectors recording a decline of 4.6% and 3.6% respectively.
11.2%
10.6% 9.5%
6.0% 5.9%
2.50
29-Jan-18
Insurance
1-Jan-18
Diversified Financials
7,000
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00%
Pharma, Biotech & Life Science
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Food & Staples Retailing
Retailing
Diversified Financials
REITs
Health Care Equipment & Svc
Media
Transportation
Energy
Utilities
Consumer Services
Food & Beverages
Telecommunication Services
Capital Goods
Insurance
Banks
© All rights reserved
Commercial & Professional Svc
1
Real Estate Mgmt & Dev't
0.00%
Materials
5.00%
Basic Materials and Real Estate were the highest traded sectors, accounting for 28.7% and 24.0%, respectively, of total value traded in January. On the other hand, Pharma and Consumer Durables were the lowest, accounting for 0.36% and 0.16% respectively.
Monthly Report
February 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | January 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
GCC Market Performance
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
10.0%
On a Monthly basis, Qatar was the best performing index, rising 8.0%MoM. Oman index was the only market to show decline of 1.9%MoM.
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% TASI
Dubai (DFMGI)
Abu dahbi (ADSMI)
Qatar
Kuwait
Bahrain
Oman
Monthly
Top/Worst Performing Companies (January 2018)
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
15.0% 10.0%
SADAFCO
SIIG
Tawuniya
-15.0%
Saudi Kayan
-10.0%
MEPCO
Petro Rabigh
0.0% -5.0%
AXA Cooperative
5.0%
Dar Al Arkan
Atheeb Telecom
20.0%
METLIFE AIG ANB
25.0%
Companies with lowest PE
Petro Rabigh was the best performing stock in January recording an increase of 22.1%MoM followed by AXA co-op which showed increase of 21.6%MoM. On the other hand, Dar Al Arkan was the worst performing stock recording a 30.4%MoM decline, followed by Metlife which showed a decline of 22.5%MoM.
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
11.00
8.00
7.78
8.32
8.59
8.72
Arabian Shield
9.00
Saudi Electric.
10.00 8.91
9.13
9.15
9.21
9.30
9.44
9.79
9.90
9.97
10.03
Buruj had the lowest P/E of 7.21% , followed by Al Babtain at 7.78x and Gulf Union at 8.32x.
7.21
7.00 6.00 5.00
2
© All rights reserved
Zamil Indust
Solidarity
Trade Union
SPIMACO
ALTAYYAR
UCA
ARNB
SAICO
BJAZ
saib
Gulf Union
AL-BABTAIN
Buruj
4.00
Monthly Report
February 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | January 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Economic Data SAIBOR
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
2.35
3-month and 6-month SAIBOR ended the month at 1.886% and 2.084% respectively. The 3-month and 6-month SAIBOR showed a MoM decline of 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.
2.2
2.05
1.9
1.75
1.6 Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
SAIBOR 6M
SAIBOR 3M
Inflation Rate
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
2.10%
Saudi Arabia inflation rate stood at 0.4% at the end of January, an increase from 0.1% in December.
1.60%
1.10%
0.60%
0.10%
-0.40%
-0.90%
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Deposits & loans
Dec-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
5.5%
90%
4.0%
88%
2.5%
86%
Changes in Loans(LHS)
Changes In Deposits(LHS)
Dec-17
Sep-17
Jun-17
Mar-17
Dec-16
Sep-16
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
78%
Dec-13
80%
-3.5%
Sep-13
-2.0%
Jun-13
82%
Mar-13
84%
-0.5%
Dec-12
1.0%
ADR(RHS)
Change in Loans by Maturity (%)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital 16.0%
45.0%
13.0% 10.0%
30.0%
7.0% 15.0%
4.0% 1.0%
0.0%
Less than 1 Year (%) -LHS
3
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1 to 3 year (%) -LHS
Above 3 year (%) -LHS
Dec-17
Oct-17
Aug-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
-2.0%
Dec-14
-15.0%
Deposits showed an increase of SAR 19.43bn (1.0%MoM), while loans showed a decline of SAR 19.54bn (1.4%MoM) by end of December.
-5.0%
Total loan YoY Growth (%) -RHS
Total loans showed a decline of 1.0% YoY, the highest decline was for loans with maturity of less than 1 year which showed a decline of 1.5%YoY, while loans of maturity between 1-3 years showed an increase of 0.3%YoY.
Monthly Report
February 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | January 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Change in Demand - Time and Saving Deposits
40,000
1500
15,000
1300
-10,000
1100
-35,000
900
Apr-13
Aug-13 Dec-13
Demand Deposit (LHS)
Apr-14
Aug-14 Dec-14
Apr-15
Time & Savings Deposits (LHS)
Aug-15 Dec-15
Other Deposits (LHS)
Apr-16
Aug-16 Dec-16
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
Sales(bn) (LHS)
No. of Transactions (mn) (RHS)
Dec-17
Oct-17
Aug-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
24.0
Aug-16
11.0
Jun-16
34.0
Apr-16
13.0
Feb-16
44.0
Dec-15
15.0
Oct-15
54.0
Aug-15
17.0
Jun-15
64.0
Apr-15
19.0
Feb-15
74.0
Dec-14
SAR (Million)
700 Aug-17 Dec-17
21.0
© All rights reserved
Demand deposits showed an increase of SAR 1.77bn (0.3%MoM), while Time & Saving deposits showed an increase of SAR 18.1bn (4.2%MoM). In addition, government deposits showed an increase of (0.6% MoM).
Government Deposits ( includes all types of deposits)(RHS)
POS (Point of Sale)
4
Apr-17
SAR ('000)
-60,000 Dec-12
Jun-17
SAR (Million)
1700
SAR ('000)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
65,000
Point of Sales showed an increase of 20.1%MoM , standing at SAR 20.2bn, with total number of transactions standing at 72.2mn (up 2.7%). POS currently are at historical highs.
Monthly Report
February 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | January 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Commodities Prices Oil Prices (USD) *
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
71
8 7
66
6
61
5 4
56
Brent and WTI showed an increase of 3.3%MoM and 7 . 1 % M o M r e s p e c t i v e l y, closing at $69.05 and $64.73 respectively.
3
51
2
46
1
41 Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Spread(RHS)
Jul-17
Aug-17
Brent(LHS)
Sep-17
Oct-17
WTI(LHS)
Gold & Silver (% Monthly change)
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
0
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
20.0%
85
15.0%
80
10.0%
75
5.0%
70
0.0%
65
-5.0%
60
-10.0%
55
-15.0%
50
Gold and Silver showed an increase of 3.2%MoM and 2.4%MoM respectively, and closed the month at $1345.1 and $17.34 respectively.
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18
Changes in Gold Price(LHS)
Changes in Silver Price(LHS)
Copper
G/S Price (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
3.4
3.2
Copper showed a decline of 3.2%MoM and ended the month at 3.196USD/lb.
USD/Ib
3
2.8
2.6
2.4 Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Steel **
Nov-17
Jan-18
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
750 730
Steel showed an increase of 10.4%MoM and ended the month at 731.0 USD/ton.
710 690
USD/Ton
670 650 630 610 590 570 Jan-17
5
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
* Mars 2018 contract for Brent, February 2018 contract for WTI ** HRC1 Index
© All rights reserved
Monthly Report
February 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | January 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Exchange Rate Dollar Index
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
104 102
Dollar Index showed a decrease of 3.2% MOM by the end of January standing at 89.13 points.
100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
EUR/USD
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
Jan-18
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
1.25 1.22
Euro appreciated against the Dollar by 3.4%MoM and stood at 1.241 EUR/USD.
1.19 1.16 1.13 1.1 1.07 1.04
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
USD/YUAN
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
Jan-18
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
7 6.9
YUAN appreciated by 3.4%MoM against the Dollar standing at 6.289 YUAN/USD.
6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
USD/YEN
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
Jan-18
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
116 115
YEN appreciated 3.1% against the Dollar and stood at 109.19 YEN/ USD.
114 113 112 111 110 109 108 107
6
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
© All rights reserved
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
Jan-18
RESEARCH DIVISION
Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi, CAIA
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256250 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr
Muhanad Al-Odan
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment
sales
brokerage
Centers
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 12 6618443 [email protected]
Central Region
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
Abdullah Al-Rahit
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
February 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | January 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
TASI ended the month at 7650.12 points, a 5.9% increase MoM compared to December 2017 .Total value traded stood at SAR 81.97bn. Basic Materials and Real Estate sectors accounted for 52.7% of the total value traded. Banks and Healthcare were the best performing sectors, showing an increase of 11.2%MoM and 10.6%MoM respectively. While Real Estate and REITs were the worst performing sectors, showing a decline of 4.6% and 3.6%MoM respectively.
TASI Movement During January
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
7,700
5.00
7,600
4.50
7,500 4.00
7,400 7,300
TASI started the month at 7226.32 points and closed at 7650.12 with an average daily value traded of SAR 3.56bn compared to 4.16bn in December.
3.50
7,200 3.00
7,100
8-Jan-18
15-Jan-18
22-Jan-18 Closing Price - LHS
Value Traded(bn)-RHS
Sectors Performance
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
12.0%
Consumer Durables
9.0%
-3.6%
MoM Performance
Value Traded per Sector (%)
-4.6% Real Estate
Utilities
-0.7%
REITs
-1.3%
Telecom
Banks
Pharma & Bio Tech
-1.4% Food & Beverages
-3.2%
-0.6%
Healthcare
3.0%
Food & Staples
Transportation
-6.0%
-1.4% Commercial Service
-0.6% Capital Goods
Materials
-3.0%
Energy
TASI
0.0%
4.0%
Retailing
2.1%
4.8%
Media
3.7%
3.0%
9.3% 6.1%
Consumer Services
5.7%
TASI increased 423.8 points (up 5.9%MoM). Banks and Healthcare sectors showed the highest MoM increase of 11.2% and 10.6% respectively. On the other hand, Real Estate and REITs were the worst performing sectors recording a decline of 4.6% and 3.6% respectively.
11.2%
10.6% 9.5%
6.0% 5.9%
2.50
29-Jan-18
Insurance
1-Jan-18
Diversified Financials
7,000
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00%
Pharma, Biotech & Life Science
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Food & Staples Retailing
Retailing
Diversified Financials
REITs
Health Care Equipment & Svc
Media
Transportation
Energy
Utilities
Consumer Services
Food & Beverages
Telecommunication Services
Capital Goods
Insurance
Banks
© All rights reserved
Commercial & Professional Svc
1
Real Estate Mgmt & Dev't
0.00%
Materials
5.00%
Basic Materials and Real Estate were the highest traded sectors, accounting for 28.7% and 24.0%, respectively, of total value traded in January. On the other hand, Pharma and Consumer Durables were the lowest, accounting for 0.36% and 0.16% respectively.
Monthly Report
February 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | January 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
GCC Market Performance
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
10.0%
On a Monthly basis, Qatar was the best performing index, rising 8.0%MoM. Oman index was the only market to show decline of 1.9%MoM.
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% TASI
Dubai (DFMGI)
Abu dahbi (ADSMI)
Qatar
Kuwait
Bahrain
Oman
Monthly
Top/Worst Performing Companies (January 2018)
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
15.0% 10.0%
SADAFCO
SIIG
Tawuniya
-15.0%
Saudi Kayan
-10.0%
MEPCO
Petro Rabigh
0.0% -5.0%
AXA Cooperative
5.0%
Dar Al Arkan
Atheeb Telecom
20.0%
METLIFE AIG ANB
25.0%
Companies with lowest PE
Petro Rabigh was the best performing stock in January recording an increase of 22.1%MoM followed by AXA co-op which showed increase of 21.6%MoM. On the other hand, Dar Al Arkan was the worst performing stock recording a 30.4%MoM decline, followed by Metlife which showed a decline of 22.5%MoM.
Source: TADAWUL, Aljazira Capital
11.00
8.00
7.78
8.32
8.59
8.72
Arabian Shield
9.00
Saudi Electric.
10.00 8.91
9.13
9.15
9.21
9.30
9.44
9.79
9.90
9.97
10.03
Buruj had the lowest P/E of 7.21% , followed by Al Babtain at 7.78x and Gulf Union at 8.32x.
7.21
7.00 6.00 5.00
2
© All rights reserved
Zamil Indust
Solidarity
Trade Union
SPIMACO
ALTAYYAR
UCA
ARNB
SAICO
BJAZ
saib
Gulf Union
AL-BABTAIN
Buruj
4.00
Monthly Report
February 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | January 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Economic Data SAIBOR
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
2.35
3-month and 6-month SAIBOR ended the month at 1.886% and 2.084% respectively. The 3-month and 6-month SAIBOR showed a MoM decline of 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.
2.2
2.05
1.9
1.75
1.6 Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
SAIBOR 6M
SAIBOR 3M
Inflation Rate
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
2.10%
Saudi Arabia inflation rate stood at 0.4% at the end of January, an increase from 0.1% in December.
1.60%
1.10%
0.60%
0.10%
-0.40%
-0.90%
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Deposits & loans
Dec-17
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
5.5%
90%
4.0%
88%
2.5%
86%
Changes in Loans(LHS)
Changes In Deposits(LHS)
Dec-17
Sep-17
Jun-17
Mar-17
Dec-16
Sep-16
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
78%
Dec-13
80%
-3.5%
Sep-13
-2.0%
Jun-13
82%
Mar-13
84%
-0.5%
Dec-12
1.0%
ADR(RHS)
Change in Loans by Maturity (%)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital 16.0%
45.0%
13.0% 10.0%
30.0%
7.0% 15.0%
4.0% 1.0%
0.0%
Less than 1 Year (%) -LHS
3
© All rights reserved
1 to 3 year (%) -LHS
Above 3 year (%) -LHS
Dec-17
Oct-17
Aug-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
-2.0%
Dec-14
-15.0%
Deposits showed an increase of SAR 19.43bn (1.0%MoM), while loans showed a decline of SAR 19.54bn (1.4%MoM) by end of December.
-5.0%
Total loan YoY Growth (%) -RHS
Total loans showed a decline of 1.0% YoY, the highest decline was for loans with maturity of less than 1 year which showed a decline of 1.5%YoY, while loans of maturity between 1-3 years showed an increase of 0.3%YoY.
Monthly Report
February 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | January 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Change in Demand - Time and Saving Deposits
40,000
1500
15,000
1300
-10,000
1100
-35,000
900
Apr-13
Aug-13 Dec-13
Demand Deposit (LHS)
Apr-14
Aug-14 Dec-14
Apr-15
Time & Savings Deposits (LHS)
Aug-15 Dec-15
Other Deposits (LHS)
Apr-16
Aug-16 Dec-16
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
Sales(bn) (LHS)
No. of Transactions (mn) (RHS)
Dec-17
Oct-17
Aug-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
24.0
Aug-16
11.0
Jun-16
34.0
Apr-16
13.0
Feb-16
44.0
Dec-15
15.0
Oct-15
54.0
Aug-15
17.0
Jun-15
64.0
Apr-15
19.0
Feb-15
74.0
Dec-14
SAR (Million)
700 Aug-17 Dec-17
21.0
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Demand deposits showed an increase of SAR 1.77bn (0.3%MoM), while Time & Saving deposits showed an increase of SAR 18.1bn (4.2%MoM). In addition, government deposits showed an increase of (0.6% MoM).
Government Deposits ( includes all types of deposits)(RHS)
POS (Point of Sale)
4
Apr-17
SAR ('000)
-60,000 Dec-12
Jun-17
SAR (Million)
1700
SAR ('000)
Source: SAMA, Aljazira Capital
65,000
Point of Sales showed an increase of 20.1%MoM , standing at SAR 20.2bn, with total number of transactions standing at 72.2mn (up 2.7%). POS currently are at historical highs.
Monthly Report
February 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | January 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Commodities Prices Oil Prices (USD) *
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
71
8 7
66
6
61
5 4
56
Brent and WTI showed an increase of 3.3%MoM and 7 . 1 % M o M r e s p e c t i v e l y, closing at $69.05 and $64.73 respectively.
3
51
2
46
1
41 Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Spread(RHS)
Jul-17
Aug-17
Brent(LHS)
Sep-17
Oct-17
WTI(LHS)
Gold & Silver (% Monthly change)
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
0
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
20.0%
85
15.0%
80
10.0%
75
5.0%
70
0.0%
65
-5.0%
60
-10.0%
55
-15.0%
50
Gold and Silver showed an increase of 3.2%MoM and 2.4%MoM respectively, and closed the month at $1345.1 and $17.34 respectively.
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18
Changes in Gold Price(LHS)
Changes in Silver Price(LHS)
Copper
G/S Price (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
3.4
3.2
Copper showed a decline of 3.2%MoM and ended the month at 3.196USD/lb.
USD/Ib
3
2.8
2.6
2.4 Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Steel **
Nov-17
Jan-18
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
750 730
Steel showed an increase of 10.4%MoM and ended the month at 731.0 USD/ton.
710 690
USD/Ton
670 650 630 610 590 570 Jan-17
5
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
* Mars 2018 contract for Brent, February 2018 contract for WTI ** HRC1 Index
© All rights reserved
Monthly Report
February 2018
Saudi Arabia | Saudi Stock Market | January 2018
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Exchange Rate Dollar Index
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
104 102
Dollar Index showed a decrease of 3.2% MOM by the end of January standing at 89.13 points.
100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
EUR/USD
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
Jan-18
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
1.25 1.22
Euro appreciated against the Dollar by 3.4%MoM and stood at 1.241 EUR/USD.
1.19 1.16 1.13 1.1 1.07 1.04
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
USD/YUAN
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
Jan-18
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
7 6.9
YUAN appreciated by 3.4%MoM against the Dollar standing at 6.289 YUAN/USD.
6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
USD/YEN
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
Jan-18
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
116 115
YEN appreciated 3.1% against the Dollar and stood at 109.19 YEN/ USD.
114 113 112 111 110 109 108 107
6
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
© All rights reserved
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-16
Jan-18
RESEARCH DIVISION
Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi, CAIA
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256250 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
Analyst
Analyst
Waleed Al-jubayr
Muhanad Al-Odan
+966 11 2256146 [email protected]
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment
sales
brokerage
Centers
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
+966 12 6618443 [email protected]
Central Region
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
Abdullah Al-Rahit
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
