monthly technical report - Aljazira Capital
MONTHLY TECHNICAL REPORT July 06, 2015
The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the market, equities and commodities subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, no information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial and legal advice.
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 TADAWUL: DAILY CHART
TADAWUL: WEEKLY CHART
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
General Trend: On the weekly chart, the index failed to maintain the uptrend
General Trend: Looking at the daily movement, even with the recent bounce
after six months of gains. It ended trading for the third consecutive week below
back, the index is trending negatively after breaking the up-trend started in
the 20-weeks simple moving average, which raises the alert level for the
December 2014. The Index ended trading below the 100-days SMA at 9340
current period. Moreover, The RSI exhibits clear weakness marks to go below the 50 mark, which sheds more negativity for the coming period.
points, which marks the resistance level for the market to break from the uncertainty back to stability. The daily crosses for the simple moving averages are trending down which raises alertness and negative expectations on the short term.
Estimation: We expect the index to retest 8877 points during the upcoming period, in case of the breakage it is likely to decline toward the next supports of 8561 – 8246 respectively. The index stability requires a weekly closing above the 20-weeks SMA at 9430 point. All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
Estimation: We expect the index to retest the level of 9217, and then attempts slip, reaching 9035 – 8831 points in the coming period. Maintaining the positive trend requires stability on the short term above 9340 to be stable again. 2
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 TADAWUL: MONTHLY CHART
TECHNICAL SUMMARY •
The index closed at 9136 points.
•
Trend Overview: On monthly basis, the index failed to exceed the bullish trend started during the first quarter 2009.
•
Moreover, the index ended the monthly movement (June) retracting below its important moving averages after several months holding up, indicating a negative movement outlook for the upcoming period. The monthly RSI to move horizontally bounced back from the “50” levels, It shows the presence of a state of alert and caution.
•
The index also failed to hold above 50% Fibonacci levels at 9192 point, indicating possible resumption of declines in the coming period.
•
Expectations: it is likely the index will decline to the support levels of 8728 – 8154 respectively, while the levels at 7800 represent the most important support levels (uptrend) on the long run in a bluesky scenario, and we do not expect it to penetrate. The resistance levels are, in the event of rebound, at 9430 – 9655.
Source: Bloomberg
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
3
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 Banks & Financial Services index :Weekly chart
TECHNICAL SUMMARY •
The index closed at 20204 points.
•
Trend Overview: On weekly basis, the Banks & Financial Services index failed to maintain the bullish trend started December 2014.
•
Moreover, the index is moving under its important weekly SMA for the third consecutive week, indicating a negative movement outlook for the upcoming period. The monthly RSI remains below the “50” levels, indicating a weakness on the medium term.
•
The sector index closing with bullish candlestick formation, which indicates the possibility of rebounding toward maximum the 20739 points before resuming down trend again.
•
Expectations: The outlook on the medium run remains negative, as support levels will be at 19910– 19240 points’ levels, while the levels at 20485 – 20739 represent the most important resistance levels on the medium run.
Source: Bloomberg
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
4
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 TECHNICAL SUMMARY
Petrochemical Industries index : Weekly chart •
The index closed at 6288 points.
•
Trend Overview: On weekly basis, the index of petrochemicals maintained the bullish trend started during December 2014.
•
Moreover, the index continued to move below the weekly average for the second week in a raw; thus, indicating a negative movement outlook for the upcoming period. The weekly RSI declined below the “ 50 ” levels, indicating the potential downtrend on the medium term.
•
The sector index closed holding above 38.2% Fibonacci levels at 6270 point, which indicates possibility of short-term increase toward maximum 6450-point before resuming the down trend.
•
Expectations: The outlook on medium term remains negative, as support levels in case of breaking 6270 point will be at 6023 – 5777 point, where the first point represent the support of the uptrend of the sector. The levels at 6450 – 6575 represent the resistance levels on medium term.
Source: Bloomberg
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
5
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 Cement index :Weekly chart
TECHNICAL SUMMARY •
The index closed at 6695 points.
•
Trend Overview: On weekly basis, the index failed to maintain the bullish trend started since December 2014.
•
Moreover, the index is moving under its important weekly averages for the fourth consecutive week, indicating a negative movement outlook for the upcoming period. The monthly RSI went below the “50” levels, indicating a weakness on the medium term.
•
The sector index closing with a negative candlestick formation closing at its lowest levels, which indicates the possibility of a continued down trend.
•
Expectations: The outlook on the long run remains negative, as support levels will be at 6646 - 6460 points, while the levels at 6797 - 6948 represent the resistance levels on the medium run.
Source: Bloomberg
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
6
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 TECHNICAL SUMMARY
7010: SAUDI TELECOM CO.: BUY
The stock ended at SAR 69.30
On the Weekly charts, we saw a rebound for the stock from important weekly SMA support and forming a positive closing candle pattern, which indicates the possibility of resuming the bullish trend to achieve new levels. The RSI still moving positively above the (50) level, supporting positive expectations.
Traders could consider buying above SAR 68.60 with a stop loss of weekly close below 66.50 and the technical target price at SAR 76.0
The stock ended at SAR 52.65.
On the weekly charts, the stock is holding above the 10-weeks simple moving average. The stock ended the trading forming an inverse candle above the 161.8 % Fibonacci levels for the last bullish wave started December 2014, which supports the continuation of the positive movement for the coming period. The MACD indicator remained positive, Which gives wider opportunities to positive movement
Traders could consider buying above SAR 51.70 levels, with stop-loss of weekly close below SAR 49.80 and technical target price at SAR 56.70.
4030: NATIONAL SHIPPING COMPANY OF SAUDI ARABIA: BUY
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
7
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 TECHNICAL SUMMARY
BRENT OIL: SIGNS OF WEAKNESS AND EXPECTATIONS DECLINE TO US$56.50 •
The index ended at 60.32
•
On the Weekly charts, the Brent Crude Index failure to maintain uptrend started since January 2015 falling below the 20 weeks moving average for the first time since April 2015 which increases the probability of a complete negative movement in the medium term.
•
The Brent Crude Index failed to maintain “Triangle” pattern which represents an inverse trend if broken.
•
RSI continued its negative performance below the 50 level also failed in cohesion over 38.2% Fibonacci levels (US$ 63.03) after several weeks of coherence then, giving more negative expectations and downside movement.
•
Expectations: Is likely to retest the US$ 61.83 levels Including downside movement again to US$ 59.0 - 56.5 as initial targets respectively. We believe that the ability to close above $ 63.03 weekly again may be the first signs of a return to stability and the failure of the above scenario.
Source: Bloomberg
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
8
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 TECHNICAL SUMMARY
GOLD INDEX: STILL EXECRATED TO DECLINE TOWARD USD 1142 •
The index ended at US$ 1168.89
•
On the Weekly charts, the price continued its negative trend started in September 2011 at US$ 1921. Our outlook for Gold remains negative on the medium term, as it is expected to fall toward US$ 978.22 levels in 2015.
•
Moreover, the index is moving in a narrow range of a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern, indicating a continued pattern of movement. We believe that falling below 1142.90 will add accelerating pressure to the index towards the levels indicated in the chart.
•
Estimations: With the index peaking lower than the previous peaks, along with the RSI trending low, our estimations point to the negative side reaching around US$ 1142.9 an ounce on the short term, then towards the consecutive expected targets (on the chart) , while we estimate that a reverse trend above US$ 1240 will cancel the above scenario.
Source: Bloomberg
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
9
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 TECHNICAL SUMMARY
DOLLAR INDEX: CLEAR COHESION FOR DXY INDEX AND MOVE AROUND 97.68 POINT
The index ended at 95.95
The index is currently trending in the second corrective wave (B) of the monthly charts started in march 2008 at 70.96.
The index received good support at the
levels above around 93.61, which indicates the first end signs for wave (4) from wave (C), and is expected to test the previous peak at 100.08.
The RSI continued to hold firm around the (70) level pointing up in an indication for a positive performance in the coming period. The 10-Months simple moving average is trending above the 20 months moving average, marking a positive interaction that support uptrend movement on the medium term.
Estimations: It is likely that the index will test the levels of 97.68 in the coming period, and continue rising towards 100.08 levels. The level of 93.61 is the most important levels to keep positive in the mid-term.
Source: Bloomberg
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
10
SAUDI TECHNICAL WEEKLY 23 November 2014
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
11
SAUDI TECHNICAL WEEKLY 23 November 2014
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
12
The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the market, equities and commodities subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, no information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial and legal advice.
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 TADAWUL: DAILY CHART
TADAWUL: WEEKLY CHART
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
General Trend: On the weekly chart, the index failed to maintain the uptrend
General Trend: Looking at the daily movement, even with the recent bounce
after six months of gains. It ended trading for the third consecutive week below
back, the index is trending negatively after breaking the up-trend started in
the 20-weeks simple moving average, which raises the alert level for the
December 2014. The Index ended trading below the 100-days SMA at 9340
current period. Moreover, The RSI exhibits clear weakness marks to go below the 50 mark, which sheds more negativity for the coming period.
points, which marks the resistance level for the market to break from the uncertainty back to stability. The daily crosses for the simple moving averages are trending down which raises alertness and negative expectations on the short term.
Estimation: We expect the index to retest 8877 points during the upcoming period, in case of the breakage it is likely to decline toward the next supports of 8561 – 8246 respectively. The index stability requires a weekly closing above the 20-weeks SMA at 9430 point. All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
Estimation: We expect the index to retest the level of 9217, and then attempts slip, reaching 9035 – 8831 points in the coming period. Maintaining the positive trend requires stability on the short term above 9340 to be stable again. 2
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 TADAWUL: MONTHLY CHART
TECHNICAL SUMMARY •
The index closed at 9136 points.
•
Trend Overview: On monthly basis, the index failed to exceed the bullish trend started during the first quarter 2009.
•
Moreover, the index ended the monthly movement (June) retracting below its important moving averages after several months holding up, indicating a negative movement outlook for the upcoming period. The monthly RSI to move horizontally bounced back from the “50” levels, It shows the presence of a state of alert and caution.
•
The index also failed to hold above 50% Fibonacci levels at 9192 point, indicating possible resumption of declines in the coming period.
•
Expectations: it is likely the index will decline to the support levels of 8728 – 8154 respectively, while the levels at 7800 represent the most important support levels (uptrend) on the long run in a bluesky scenario, and we do not expect it to penetrate. The resistance levels are, in the event of rebound, at 9430 – 9655.
Source: Bloomberg
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
3
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 Banks & Financial Services index :Weekly chart
TECHNICAL SUMMARY •
The index closed at 20204 points.
•
Trend Overview: On weekly basis, the Banks & Financial Services index failed to maintain the bullish trend started December 2014.
•
Moreover, the index is moving under its important weekly SMA for the third consecutive week, indicating a negative movement outlook for the upcoming period. The monthly RSI remains below the “50” levels, indicating a weakness on the medium term.
•
The sector index closing with bullish candlestick formation, which indicates the possibility of rebounding toward maximum the 20739 points before resuming down trend again.
•
Expectations: The outlook on the medium run remains negative, as support levels will be at 19910– 19240 points’ levels, while the levels at 20485 – 20739 represent the most important resistance levels on the medium run.
Source: Bloomberg
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
4
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 TECHNICAL SUMMARY
Petrochemical Industries index : Weekly chart •
The index closed at 6288 points.
•
Trend Overview: On weekly basis, the index of petrochemicals maintained the bullish trend started during December 2014.
•
Moreover, the index continued to move below the weekly average for the second week in a raw; thus, indicating a negative movement outlook for the upcoming period. The weekly RSI declined below the “ 50 ” levels, indicating the potential downtrend on the medium term.
•
The sector index closed holding above 38.2% Fibonacci levels at 6270 point, which indicates possibility of short-term increase toward maximum 6450-point before resuming the down trend.
•
Expectations: The outlook on medium term remains negative, as support levels in case of breaking 6270 point will be at 6023 – 5777 point, where the first point represent the support of the uptrend of the sector. The levels at 6450 – 6575 represent the resistance levels on medium term.
Source: Bloomberg
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
5
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 Cement index :Weekly chart
TECHNICAL SUMMARY •
The index closed at 6695 points.
•
Trend Overview: On weekly basis, the index failed to maintain the bullish trend started since December 2014.
•
Moreover, the index is moving under its important weekly averages for the fourth consecutive week, indicating a negative movement outlook for the upcoming period. The monthly RSI went below the “50” levels, indicating a weakness on the medium term.
•
The sector index closing with a negative candlestick formation closing at its lowest levels, which indicates the possibility of a continued down trend.
•
Expectations: The outlook on the long run remains negative, as support levels will be at 6646 - 6460 points, while the levels at 6797 - 6948 represent the resistance levels on the medium run.
Source: Bloomberg
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
6
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 TECHNICAL SUMMARY
7010: SAUDI TELECOM CO.: BUY
The stock ended at SAR 69.30
On the Weekly charts, we saw a rebound for the stock from important weekly SMA support and forming a positive closing candle pattern, which indicates the possibility of resuming the bullish trend to achieve new levels. The RSI still moving positively above the (50) level, supporting positive expectations.
Traders could consider buying above SAR 68.60 with a stop loss of weekly close below 66.50 and the technical target price at SAR 76.0
The stock ended at SAR 52.65.
On the weekly charts, the stock is holding above the 10-weeks simple moving average. The stock ended the trading forming an inverse candle above the 161.8 % Fibonacci levels for the last bullish wave started December 2014, which supports the continuation of the positive movement for the coming period. The MACD indicator remained positive, Which gives wider opportunities to positive movement
Traders could consider buying above SAR 51.70 levels, with stop-loss of weekly close below SAR 49.80 and technical target price at SAR 56.70.
4030: NATIONAL SHIPPING COMPANY OF SAUDI ARABIA: BUY
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
7
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 TECHNICAL SUMMARY
BRENT OIL: SIGNS OF WEAKNESS AND EXPECTATIONS DECLINE TO US$56.50 •
The index ended at 60.32
•
On the Weekly charts, the Brent Crude Index failure to maintain uptrend started since January 2015 falling below the 20 weeks moving average for the first time since April 2015 which increases the probability of a complete negative movement in the medium term.
•
The Brent Crude Index failed to maintain “Triangle” pattern which represents an inverse trend if broken.
•
RSI continued its negative performance below the 50 level also failed in cohesion over 38.2% Fibonacci levels (US$ 63.03) after several weeks of coherence then, giving more negative expectations and downside movement.
•
Expectations: Is likely to retest the US$ 61.83 levels Including downside movement again to US$ 59.0 - 56.5 as initial targets respectively. We believe that the ability to close above $ 63.03 weekly again may be the first signs of a return to stability and the failure of the above scenario.
Source: Bloomberg
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
8
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 TECHNICAL SUMMARY
GOLD INDEX: STILL EXECRATED TO DECLINE TOWARD USD 1142 •
The index ended at US$ 1168.89
•
On the Weekly charts, the price continued its negative trend started in September 2011 at US$ 1921. Our outlook for Gold remains negative on the medium term, as it is expected to fall toward US$ 978.22 levels in 2015.
•
Moreover, the index is moving in a narrow range of a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern, indicating a continued pattern of movement. We believe that falling below 1142.90 will add accelerating pressure to the index towards the levels indicated in the chart.
•
Estimations: With the index peaking lower than the previous peaks, along with the RSI trending low, our estimations point to the negative side reaching around US$ 1142.9 an ounce on the short term, then towards the consecutive expected targets (on the chart) , while we estimate that a reverse trend above US$ 1240 will cancel the above scenario.
Source: Bloomberg
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
9
MONTHLY REPORT SAUDI TECHNICAL TECHNICAL WEEKLY July 05, 2015 23 November 2014 TECHNICAL SUMMARY
DOLLAR INDEX: CLEAR COHESION FOR DXY INDEX AND MOVE AROUND 97.68 POINT
The index ended at 95.95
The index is currently trending in the second corrective wave (B) of the monthly charts started in march 2008 at 70.96.
The index received good support at the
levels above around 93.61, which indicates the first end signs for wave (4) from wave (C), and is expected to test the previous peak at 100.08.
The RSI continued to hold firm around the (70) level pointing up in an indication for a positive performance in the coming period. The 10-Months simple moving average is trending above the 20 months moving average, marking a positive interaction that support uptrend movement on the medium term.
Estimations: It is likely that the index will test the levels of 97.68 in the coming period, and continue rising towards 100.08 levels. The level of 93.61 is the most important levels to keep positive in the mid-term.
Source: Bloomberg
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
10
SAUDI TECHNICAL WEEKLY 23 November 2014
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
11
SAUDI TECHNICAL WEEKLY 23 November 2014
All rights reserved | Disclaimer: Please refer to the Disclaimer on the last page
12
