National Industrialization Co. (TASNEE)

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National Industrialization Co. (TASNEE) April 2018

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TASNEE: The company reported the highest net profit in three years at SAR 361.4mn; exceeding AJC and the market consensus estimates of SAR 285.5mn and SAR 280.5mn, respectively. Higher than expected gross margin and lower than expected minority interest led to the positive variance in earnings; however revenues were below our estimates by 7.5%. Furthermore, additional expenses of SAR 56mn higher than expected in OPEX squeezed the operating income in 1Q2018. Gross margin stood at 29.0% in 1Q18, higher than our estimate of 25% and 17.2% in 1Q2017. We maintain our “Neutral” recommendation on the stock with a higher TP at SAR 20.50/share and an optimistic mid/ long-term outlook based on deal closing with Tronox Ltd Co.

Recommendation

Neutral

Current Price* (SAR)

21.53

Target Price (SAR)

20.50

Upside / (Downside)

-4.7%

• National Industrialization Company (TASNEE) 1Q2018 net profit came above estimates, exceeding AJC

Revenue Gross Profit Gross Margin EBIT Net Profit EPS

1

Q4-2017

Q1-2018

Change YoY

Change QoQ

Deviation from AJC Estimates

2,480 426.9 17.2% 340.4 103.3 0.15

2,889 715.6 24.7% 399 327.7 0.49

2,820 818 29.0% 692.3 361.4 0.54

13.7% 91.6% 103.4% 249.9% -

-2.3% 14.3% 73.5% 10.3% -

-7.5% 7.4% 0.1% 26.5% -

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

© All rights reserved

-43.1%

25.3%

12.7%

Net Income

91.50

716.2

1,436

-

682%

100.6

0.15

1.07

2.15

Growth % EPS

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Key Ratios FY16

FY17

FY18E

Gross Margin

10.5%

19.5%

28.4%

Net Margin

2.3%

10.5%

27.9%

Net Margin

1.1%

6.6%

11.8%

P/E

115.8x

15.3x

10.02x

P/B

1.1x

1.24x

1.58x

128.3x

21.3x

6.0x

-

-

-

SARmn (unless specified)

EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend Yield

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Key Market Data Market Cap (bn)

14.35

YTD %

31.0%

52 Week (High )

21.68

52 Week (Low)

12.44

Shares Outstanding (mn)

668.91

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Price Performance 8300

22

8000

20

7700

18

7400

16

7100 6800

14

6500

12

TASI

3/25/18

1Q-2017

Growth %

2/25/18

SARmn (unless specified)

12,166

1/25/18

Results Summary

10,796

12/25/17

AJC View: The company benefitted from the high spreads across Tio2 product and products based propane (almost 60% of feedstock). The margin of industrial segment has improved in 1Q2018 due to increase in selling prices; and expected to show extra improvement at the end of 2018 after the commercial startup of ilmenite plant, which could reduce the production cost of industrial segment. However, financial charges tends to slightly increase going forward due to shift in the interest rate environment. Furthermore, we remain optimistic on the company’s mid/long-term outlook performance based on deal closing with Tronox Ltd Co. As we expect earnings to improve on Cristal sales, lower financial charges, lower OPEX and cancellation of tax on income, which could improve margins and enhance the company’s performance. TASNEE Co. is expected to post SAR 1,418mn in net income (2.12 EPS) for FY2018, due to higher average sales prices and improved income from associates & margins. We reiterate our “Neutral” recommendation on Tasnee with a higher TP of SAR 20.50/share indicating a potential downside of 4.5%: The company is trading at a forward PE and PB of 10.02x and 1.6x respectively based on our FY2018 earnings forecast.

8,620

11/25/17

and 17.2% in 1Q2017. This gross margin is well above AJC estimates of 25.0%, which can be attributed to lower than expected production cost. In 1Q2018, Saudi propane average prices declined by 8.3%QoQ to an average price of USD 532/MT from USD 580/MT in the previous quarter. However, polypropylene-Asia prices increased by 6.8%QoQ. Consequently, an increase in Polypropylene price compared to a decline in the feedstock expanded PP-Propane spreads to USD 687/MT from USD 561/MT in 4Q2017. Operating profit stood at SAR 692.3mn depicting an increase of 103.4%QoQ. The company recorded higher than expected OPEX for 1Q2018 to stand at SAR 466mn (SAR 56.0mn above our estimate) from SAR 400.3mn in 1Q2017.

Revenue

9/25/17

• Gross profit stood at SAR 818mn, recording gross margin of 29.0%, as compared to 24.7% in 4Q2017,

FY18E

10/25/17

4Q2017 due to lower than expected operating rates. The industrial segment was running at 84% in 1Q2018, lower than our estimate of 88% and 89% in 1Q2017. However, we expect higher improvement in performance for the next quarters due to continued improvement in average sales prices and improved global demand for Tio2 product. During the quarter, average selling prices of TiO2 increased by 5.4%QoQ and 32.9%YoY. Polypropylene increased by 6.8%QoQ and 15.8%YoY. HDPE prices inched by 6.8%QoQ and 14.2%YoY.

FY17

7/25/17

• Tasnee’s sales in 1Q2018 stood at SAR 2,820mn, below our estimates of SAR 3,049mn and SAR 2,889mn in

FY16

6/25/17

our estimate and above SAR 316.4mn in 4Q2017 as a result of improved operating rate and production efficiency. For 1Q2018, we expect finance expenses to stand at SAR 159.7mn, below SAR 185.6mn in 1Q2017. Zakat and income taxes is expected to stand at SAR 43.5mn, lower than AJC estimate of SAR 49.0mn but higher than SAR 15.9mn in 1Q2017. We believe that the decline in finance expense is due to the new debt restructuring with the local banks and is expected to slightly increase going forward due to shift in the interest rate environment.

SARmn (unless specified)

5/25/17

• The company’s income from associated company is expected to improve to SAR 340mn, in-line with

Key Financials

4/25/17

and market consensus profits estimates of SAR 285.5mn and SAR 280.5mn, respectively. TASNEE posted net profit of SAR 361.4mn (EPS; SAR 0.54); indicating an increase of 249.9%YoY and 10.3%QoQ. The YoY strong performance is primarily attributed to i) an increase in average sales prices of Titanium Dioxide products; despite lower than expected operating rate. ii) decline in financial charges. iii) an increase in the company’s share from associates and joint ventures, despite the increase in OPEX and zakat provision. On the other hand, the deviation of 1Q2018 earnings from our estimates is attributed mainly to i) lower than expected production cost due to higher spreads in Tio2 product ii) lower than expected minority interest. As the minority interest is expected to stand at SAR 173mn compared to our estimate of SAR 242.6mn (29.9% from profit before Zakat and minority interest vs. 40.0% in 1Q2017).

Source: Tadawul *prices as of 24th of April 2018

8/25/17

Result Flash Note 1Q-2018

TASNEE

Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]

RESEARCH DIVISION

Head of Research

RESEARCH DIVISION

BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION

Talha Nazar

Sultan Al Kadi, CAIA

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran

+966 11 2256250 [email protected]

+966 11 2256374 [email protected]

Analyst

Analyst

Waleed Al-jubayr

Muhanad Al-Odan

+966 11 2256146 [email protected]

+966 11 2256115 [email protected]

General Manager – Brokerage Services &

AGM-Head of international and institutional

AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment

sales

brokerage

Centers

Alaa Al-Yousef

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa

Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi

+966 11 2256060 [email protected]

+966 11 2256277 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers

AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province

+966 11 2256248 [email protected]

+966 12 6618443 [email protected]

Central Region

Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa

Abdullah Al-Rahit

+966 11 2256364 [email protected]

+966 16 3617547 [email protected]

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RATING TERMINOLOGY

Analyst

2. 3. 4.

Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.

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