National Industrialization Co. (TASNEE) Result Flash Note 1Q-2016
April 2016
TASNEE: 1Q2016 earnings were better than our estimates, higher than expected operating rate and improved margins minimized the impact on the company’s performance. Cautious outlook is reiterated on the short-term. Amount in SAR mn; unless specified Sales revenues Net profit EPS (SAR)*
Forecasts 1Q-16 3,207 (359.5) (0.54)
Actual 1Q-16 NA (94.8) (0.14)
Deviation (%) 73.6% *Not Available
Production efficiency and disappearing of the company’s restructuring program to lower the impact on 1Q2016: National Industrialization Company (TASNEE) continued to surprise the market, missing AJC and market estimated loss of SAR 359.5mn and SAR 327.5mn, respectively. TASNEE posted lower than expected net losses of SAR 94.8mn; (EPS; SAR -0.14); compared with loss of SAR 332.5mn in 1Q2015, and a net loss of SAR 686.5mn in the previous quarter. We believe that the company’s performance during 1Q2016 was largely improved by higher operating rate, lower operational expenses and expanded margin for some products, despite the weak product prices. The management ascribed the decrease in net loss to i) Increase in quantities produced. ii) Lower OPEX as a result of the restructuring of the company’s business in 4Q2015. III) Lower other expenses due to the negative impact of hedging contracts in 1Q2015.
1
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Recommendation
‘Neutral ’
Current Price* (SAR)
11.20
Target Price (SAR)
12.30 9.8%
Upside / (Downside)
*prices as of 18th of April 2016
Key Financials FY14
SARmn (unless specified) Revenues Growth % Net Income Growth % EPS
18,693 2.7% 1,071 -9.1% 1.60
FY15
FY16E FY17E
15,090 17,265 18,413 -19.3% 14.0% 6.7% (1,426) 213.3 632.4 196.6% (1.52) 0.32 0.95
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Our estimates and valuation: TASNEE Co. is expected to post SAR 213.3mn in net income (0.32 EPS) for 2016, recording shift to profitability due to multiple of one-offs impacts and higher restructuring cost in 2015, and despite the impact of higher feedstock cost and low level in product price. However,
According to the CEO, TASNEE continued operating at high utilization rate and generated revenues of SAR 3.72bn in 1Q2016, higher than our expectation of SAR 3.21bn and SAR 3.3bn in 4Q2015. The higher production and sales volume resulted from improved operating rate and the commencement of commercial operation of Butanol plant, which is expected to reduce the production cost of Acrylic plant by SAR 40mn in 2016.
we adjusted our recommendation to ‘Neutral’ for the stock
During the quarter, average selling prices of TiO2 dropped by 5.4%QoQ and 17.4%YoY. Polypropylene declined by 19.6%YoY and 5.3%QoQ. HDPE prices fell by 7.7%YoY and 1.8%QoQ. Acetic Acid (AA) decreased by 28.7%YoY and 17.2%QoQ. The company’s industrial segment is estimated to maintain the weak margin performance in 2Q2016; however the segment is expected to be back with more normalized performance toward the end of 2016 and after the commercial start-up at ilmenite plant, which could reduce the production cost of industrial segment.
our 2017 earnings forecast. We anticipate the company to
with our previous target price of SAR 12.30/share; indicating a potential upside of 9.8% over current market price of SAR 11.20/share (as of 18th April 2016). The company is trading at a forward PE and PB of 11.9x and 0.47x respectively based on stop its dividend payment in 2016/2017 due to facing a tough time in the industrial segment. At the end of 2015, TASNEE’s debt-to-equity ratio stood at 2.26x, with debt of around SAR 26.35bn, and cash and equivalents of SAR 7.03bn.
Key Ratios
Gross profit stood at SAR 659.9mn to stand at 17.7% gross margin in 1Q2016, as compared to 10.7% in 4Q2015, and 17.9% in 1Q2015. This gross margin is well above AJC estimates of 9.1, which can be attributed to more positive effects from higher operating rate, product spreads and the expected lower production cost of Acrylic plant due to the commencement of Butanol plant. Operating profit stood at SAR 211.8mn vs. net operating losses of SAR 663.1mn in 4Q2015. This indicates that the company reduced OPEX expenses by 56.2% in 1Q2016 to stand at SAR 448.1mn from SAR 1.02bn in 4Q2015. We believe that the significant decline in OPEX attributed to higher impact on 4Q2015 due to the implementation of cost improvement programs and one-off impact of SAR 330mn impairment charge for non-current assets of Cristal company.
SARmn (unless specified) FY14
FY15
Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin P/E P/B EV/EBITDA (x) ROE ROA Dividend Yield
13.8% 18.9% 12.0% 18.4% -9.5% 1.2% (6.99) 35.13x 0.40x 0.49x 13.77x 8.69x -5.5% 1.5% -2.2% 0.5% -
Petrochemical segment witnessed expanded margin in 1Q2016 due to decline in some feedstock cost: In 1Q2016, Saudi propane prices (almost 60% of feedstock) declined by 25.3%QoQ and 35.1%YoY to USD 303/ton, in line with the decline in crude oil prices. However, polymer and other Petchem product prices remained resilient, dropping less than the feedstock prices. During the same period, HDPE, LDPE, and PP prices fell by 1.8%, 0.7%, and 5.3%, respectively. We believe all Petchem players using liquid gas would benefit from strong product prices and report margin expansion in 1Q2016 and would outperform players using ethane as feedstock.
Key Market Data
Despite short-term weak margin of titanium dioxide (TiO2), it’s estimated to witness signs of recovery by end of 2016: The National Titanium Dioxide Co. Ltd (Cristal), where TASNEE has 79% stake, is the world’s second-largest titanium dioxide TiO2 producer. Industrial segment gross margin plummeted from 17.9% in 2014 to 0.7% in 2015, impacted by increase in price of Rutile, and simultaneous decrease in sales price of TiO2, wedged by hefty inventories amid weak demand. In our view, China’s demand which makes up a large part of global TiO2 demand has been declining in 2015. However, we expect some improvement in the company’s Industrial segment by 2H2016 due to an expected end of the company’s restructuring and a decrease in raw material (Rutile) cost due to alternate source expansion of raw material such as ilmenite. The trail start-up at ilmenite plant is expected to start in 2H2016.
Shareholders Pattern General Organization for Social Insurance Kingdom Holding Co. Saudi Pharmaceutical Industries Gulf Investment Corporation Al Shaer for Trading Icarus Industrial Holding Company Public
© All rights reserved
24.7% 23.2% 5.7% 16.50 0.93x 8.45x 5.6% 2.2% 3.8%
FY16E FY17E 21.5% 20.1% 3.4% 11.85x 0.47x 6.97x 4.1% 1.4% -
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Market Cap (bn) YTD % 52 Week (High ) 52 Week (Low) Shares Outstanding (mn)
7.49 -3.86% 26.70 7.50 668.91 Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Shareholders Pattern Holding 8.69% 6.23% 5.24% 6.52% 7.21% 5.19% 60.92%
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248
[email protected] RESEARCH DIVISION
Acting Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256115
[email protected] +966 11 2256374
[email protected] General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
sales
brokerage
Brokerage
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani
+966 11 2256060
[email protected] +966 11 2256277
[email protected] +966 12 6618400
[email protected] AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547
[email protected] +966 11 2256364
[email protected] +966 11 2256248
[email protected] AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37