National Industrialization Co. (TASNEE) - Aljazira Capital

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National Industrialization Co. (TASNEE) Result Flash Note 2Q-2016

July 2016

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TASNEE: 2Q2016 earnings were better than our estimates, higher than expected gross margin and income of associated companies supported the company’s performance. “Overweight” recommendation on the stock with higher PT. Actual 2Q-16 3,809.9 103.9 0.16

Deviation (%) -0.8% -

Product spreads in petrochemical and SAR 94.9mn other income to lower the impact of higher finance expenses and OPEX in 2Q2016: National Industrialization Company (TASNEE) continued to surprise us after five consecutive quarters of losses, missing AJC loss estimates of SAR 61.7mn and the market consensus of SAR 6.0mn profit. TASNEE posted net profit of SAR 103.9mn; (EPS; SAR 0.16); compared with losses of SAR 107.7mn in 2Q2015, and a net loss of SAR 94.8mn in the previous quarter. We believe that the company’s performance during 2Q2016 was largely improved by i) higher than expected margin expansion for some products in petrochemical segments. ii) higher income from associated company, which improved to SAR 94.9mn compared to SAR 10mn in 1Q2016 as a result of the restructuring of the company’s business in 2015. iii) improved product prices and despite the increase in finance expenses to SAR 191mn vs. SAR 154.6mn in 2Q2015 and SAR 175.8mn in 1Q2016. Tasnee’s sales in 2Q2016 stood at SAR 3,809.9mn, slightly in-line with our estimates of SAR 3,839.7mn. The plant was running at the same level of operating rate in 1Q2016, and we expect that the commencement of commercial operation of Butanol plant had positively impacted the overall performance of Acrylic plant and reduced production cost. Therefore, we expect a more improved performance in 2016 and we remain optimistic in the next two quarters due to continued improvement after the completion of business restructuring. Gross profit stood at SAR 845.4mn, recording gross margin of 22.2% in 1Q2016, as compared to 19.7% in 2Q2015, and 17.7% in 1Q2016. This gross margin is well above AJC estimates of 18.1%, which can be attributed to higher than expected product spreads, and the expected lower production cost of Acrylic plant. Operating profit stood at SAR 363.6mn depicting an increase of 97.6%YoY, and 71.7%QoQ. The company recorded higher OPEX expenses by SAR 41.5mn in 2Q2016 to stand at SAR 500.5mn from SAR 459mn in 1Q2016, but 11%YoY decline due to the implementation of cost improvement programs in 2015. During the quarter, average selling prices of TiO2-Asia increased by 4.0%QoQ, but declined by 17.1%YoY. Polypropylene increased by 12.1%QoQ and fell 23.2%YoY. HDPE prices fell by 16.3%YoY and increased 2.4%QoQ. However, Acetic Acid (AA) recorded a decline by 4.3%QoQ and 33.9%YoY. The margin of industrial segment has improved in 2Q2016 due to an increase in selling prices; and expected to be back with more normalized performance at the end of 2016 and after the commercial start-up of ilmenite plant, which could reduce the production cost of industrial segment. Petrochemical segment witnessed expanded margin in 2Q2016 due to decline in some feedstock cost: The company benefitted from the high spreads across products based propane (almost 60% of feedstock). In 2Q2016, Saudi propane prices rose only by 7.4%QoQ to an average price of USD 325 per MT. However, polypropylene prices increased by more than 13.5%QoQ. Consequently, lower increase in propane price than Polypropylene prices led to expansion in PP-Propane spreads in 2Q2016. PP-Propane spread expanded 13.9%QoQ. We update our recommendation to “Overweight” on Tasnee with a higher PT of SAR 15.20/share indicating a potential upside of 12.2%: TASNEE Co. is expected to post SAR 368.3mn in net income (0.55 EPS) for 2016, recording shift to profitability due to number of one-offs and higher restructuring cost in 2015. Therefore, we update our recommendation to “Overweight” for the stock with higher target price at SAR 15.20/ share; indicating a potential upside of 12.2% over current market price of SAR 13.55/ share (as of 27th July 2016). The company is trading at a forward PE and PB of 12.4x and 0.56x respectively based on our 2017 earnings forecast. We expect the company to stop its dividend payment in 2016/2017 due to low level of satisfactory performance in the industrial segment. At the end of 1Q2016, TASNEE’s debt-to-equity ratio stood at 1.55x, with debt of around SAR 21.3bn, and cash and equivalents of SAR 2.5bn.

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13.55 15.20

Target Price (SAR)

12.2%

Upside / (Downside)

*prices as of 27th of July 2016

Key Financials FY14

SARmn (unless specified) Revenues Growth % Net Income Growth % EPS

18,693 2.7% 1,071 -9.1% 1.60

FY15

FY16E FY17E

15,090 16,075 -19.3% 6.1% (1,426) 368.3 (1.52) 0.55

17,798 10.7% 730.8 98.4% 1.09

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Key Ratios SARmn (unless specified) FY14

FY15

Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin P/E P/B EV/EBITDA (x) ROE ROA Dividend Yield

13.8% 21.1% 12.0% 20.3% -9.5% 2.3% (6.99) 24.61x 0.40x 0.59x 13.77x 8.89x -5.5% 2.5% -2.2% 0.8% -

24.7% 23.2% 5.7% 16.50 0.93x 8.45x 5.6% 2.2% 3.8%

FY16E FY17E 22.2% 20.0% 4.1% 12.40x 0.56x 7.61x 4.6% 1.6% -

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Key Market Data Market Cap (bn) YTD % 52 Week (High ) 52 Week (Low) Shares Outstanding (mn)

9.09 28.2% 18.60 7.50 668.91 Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Shareholders Pattern Shareholders Pattern General Organization for Social Insurance Kingdom Holding Co. Saudi Pharmaceutical Industries Gulf Investment Corporation Al Shaer for Trading Icarus Industrial Holding Company Public

Holding 8.69% 6.23% 5.24% 6.52% 7.21% 5.19% 60.92%

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Price Performance 11000

37.5

10000

32.5

9000

27.5

8000

22.5

7000

17.5

6000

12.5

5000

7.5

29 /1 4 8/ 29 / 10 14 /2 9/ 12 14 /2 9/ 14 2/ 28 /1 5 4/ 30 /1 5 6/ 30 /1 5 8/ 31 / 10 15 /3 1/ 12 15 /3 1/ 15 2/ 29 /1 6 4/ 30 /1 6 6/ 30 /1 6

Forecasts 2Q-16 3,839.7 (61.7) (0.09)

‘Overweight’

Current Price* (SAR)

6/

Amount in SAR mn; unless specified Sales revenues Net profit EPS (SAR)

Recommendation

Tadawul

TASNEE

Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]

RESEARCH DIVISION

Acting Head of Research

Talha Nazar +966 11 2256115 [email protected]

+966 11 2256374 [email protected]

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]

Waleed Al-jubayr +966 11 2256146 [email protected]

BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION

Sultan Al Kadi

Analyst

General Manager – Brokerage Services &

AGM-Head of international and institutional

AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC

sales

brokerage

Brokerage

Alaa Al-Yousef

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa

Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani

+966 11 2256060 [email protected]

+966 11 2256277 [email protected]

+966 12 6618400 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers

AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province

Central Region

Abdullah Al-Rahit

Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa

+966 16 3617547 [email protected]

+966 11 2256364 [email protected]

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RATING TERMINOLOGY

Analyst

2. 3. 4.

Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.

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