PTT Global Chemical - Global Alliance Partners
PTT Global Chemical Outperform (16E TP Bt72.00)
Company Update
Close Bt64.75
Petrochemicals April 27, 2016
Earnings upgrade/ Earnings downgrade /Overview unchanged
Accelerating earnings expected in 2H16E Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
5.882
6.290
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐3.8%
1.6%
Reuters / Bloomberg
PTTGC.BK/PTTGC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
4,508.85
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
292.00/8,302.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
37.00/19.54
52 week High / Low (Bt)
71.25/44.25
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
13,504.00
NVDR (%)
9.26
Estimated free float (%)
51.07
Beta
1.93
URL
www.pttgcgroup.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 5 (Extended)
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
Accelerating earnings in 2H16E; growth story to continue Despite weak 1Q16E earnings followed by continued low 2Q16E earnings, acceleration of earnings should be seen in 2H16E driven by the olefins business (given higher petrochemical prices in line with the oil price and solid spreads). Meanwhile, its growth potential through new projects (i.e., Map Ta Phut retrofit, US petrochemical complex) will enlarge the long‐term earnings base. Thus, our Outperform rating is maintained. Expected to deliver Bt4.65bn NP in 1Q16E We expect PTTGC to deliver Bt4.65bn NP in 1Q16E (‐18% YoY, flat QoQ), given the double impact of a one‐month planned cracker shutdown and the weak refinery operation. Although its polymer sales volume should be insignificantly impacted due to proactive stock management, the loss of ethylene sales from this shutdown will squeeze the EBITDA margin of its olefins business to 20% in 1Q16E. While, its refinery will be weighed down by the weak market GRM to US$4.8/bbl in 1Q16E (sharp drop both YoY and QoQ in line with the weak spreads of middle distillates). However, the aromatics business will show a better performance thanks to the widening PX and BZ spreads in 1Q16E to US$415/ton (given no new supply) and US$272/ton (in line with higher styrene monomer demand), respectively. The small stock loss of Bt360mn will not be a burden in the quarter, and mostly square with the forex gain. Earnings revision made in 2016‐18E We make an earnings revision in 2016‐18E by ‐20%/+3%/+5% to reflect 1) the fine‐tuning of operating rates in 2016E, with lower assumed rates on the refinery and aromatics businesses; 2) the revision made on spread assumptions with an upward revision done on olefins‐chain spreads and a downward revision on aromatics spreads; and 3) the higher percentage of SG&A expenses to sales and a higher effective tax rate. Meanwhile, the 2016E DCF‐based TP is negligibly revised to Bt72/share (vs. Bt70 earlier) given the higher base of the olefins‐chain spread assumption in the long term. Olefins spreads to stay solid in 2H16E against aromatics spreads Given the supply loss from the peak turnaround season at olefins and aromatics plants in 2Q16E, we expect their spreads to stay strong in the quarter. Meanwhile, the olefins spread should remain solid in 2H16E given the firm demand driven by the low polyethylene price and sustained high end‐product prices. In contrast, aromatics spreads are likely to weaken in 2H16E following new supply additions, particularly in the case of PX with the 2mta from Reliance India to hit the market in Jun‐2016. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 554,695 15,372 3.41 (53.62) 2.37 49.85 2014 19.00 10.97 1.30 3.7% 6.6% 30.0%
2015 403,440 20,502 4.55 33.38 2.80 51.35 2015 14.25 8.29 1.26 4.3% 9.0% 25.1%
2016E 379,836 25,529 5.66 24.52 2.55 54.58 2016E 11.44 6.68 1.19 3.9% 10.7% 9.3%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 6
2017E 440,685 28,824 6.39 12.91 2.88 58.43 2017E 10.13 5.70 1.11 4.4% 11.3% 0.8%
2018E 466,906 29,118 6.46 1.02 2.90 62.01 2018E 10.03 5.35 1.04 4.5% 10.7% ‐4.7%
Figure 1: PTTGC’s 1Q16E earnings preview Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
1Q15 100,087 9,027 10,411 (1,393) 673 (499) 243 ‐ 237 (51) 5,631 5,388 1.25 9.0 10.4 5.6 2.3 4.6 0.5 50.9 9.9
4Q15 96,909 7,966 8,911 (1,173) 5,169 (769) 65 (2,963) (114) (178) 4,690 7,589 1.04 8.2 9.2 4.8 2.9 4.0 0.5 51.4 8.1
1Q16E 74,456 8,563 10,231 (1,103) 146 (551) 347 ‐ (40) (117) 4,646 4,299 1.03 11.5 13.7 6.2 2.8 5.4 0.4 50.3 8.1
% YoY (25.6) (5.1) (1.7) (20.8) (78.3) 10.3 43.0 nm nm 129.4 (17.5) (20.2) (17.5)
% QoQ (23.2) 7.5 14.8 (6.0) (97.2) (28.4) 437.6 (100.0) (65.1) (34.4) (1.0) (43.4) (0.6)
2015 403,440 37,272 42,234 (5,178) 6,203 (1,984) (2,289) (2,531) 711 (278) 20,502 25,322 4.55 9.2 10.5 5.1 2.9 5.0 0.5 51.4 9.0
2016E 379,836 38,636 47,137 (3,527) 1,950 (3,121) 337 ‐ 1,167 (300) 25,529 25,191 5.66 10.2 12.4 6.7 3.2 8.2 0.3 54.6 10.7
% YoY (5.9) 3.7 11.6 (31.9) (68.6) 57.3 nm (100.0) 64.2 7.8 24.5 (0.5) 24.5
YTD (% of 16E) 20% 22% 22% 31% 7% 18% 103% nm nm 39% 18% 17% 18%
Source: KT ZMICO Research Figure 2: Price and spread movement ‐ olefins and polymer chain Unit: US$/ton PTTGC – related products and spread Derivatives
Spread Ethylene - MOPJ
Propylene - MOPJ
HDPE - MOPJ
LLDPE - MOPJ
LDPE - MOPJ
MEG (0.65 Ethylene)
1,250 1,300 1,343 1,362 1,237 1,149 1,065 1,247 1,282 1,173 1,143 1,208 1,182 1,093 1,143 1,035 903 1,027 1,025 837 732
335 298 204 172 230 253 285 342 434 407 402 481 507 496 565 567 532 823 509 588 668
476 494 438 394 261 364 342 303 345 439 416 420 434 328 388 385 339 377 275 142 305
469 397 443 441 374 482 428 449 521 585 569 590 620 618 691 802 694 812 774 708 759
520 387 382 328 297 449 426 455 515 575 570 603 625 627 688 785 687 811 763 713 770
828 691 630 520 370 455 412 425 498 586 649 718 705 653 688 793 698 837 783 713 773
445 461 589 672 424 404 285 411 375 351 284 281 245 152 182 246 236 126 394 166 74
(18.9) (12.5)
25.6 13.6
(10.0) 114.8
9.4 7.2
12.1 8.0
10.7 8.4
(68.6) (55.0)
Naphtha MOPJ
Ethylene SEA
Propylene SEA
HDPE SEA
LLDPE SEA
LDPE SEA
MEG SEA
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
903 993 956 888 1,021 894 915 944 961 858 920 946 935 951 913 647 494 563 461 445 344
1,238 1,291 1,160 1,061 1,251 1,146 1,200 1,286 1,395 1,265 1,322 1,427 1,441 1,447 1,478 1,214 1,026 1,386 970 1,033 1,012
1,379 1,487 1,394 1,283 1,281 1,257 1,257 1,247 1,306 1,297 1,336 1,366 1,369 1,279 1,301 1,032 833 940 736 587 649
1,372 1,389 1,399 1,329 1,395 1,376 1,343 1,393 1,482 1,443 1,489 1,536 1,554 1,569 1,604 1,448 1,188 1,375 1,234 1,153 1,103
1,423 1,380 1,338 1,217 1,318 1,342 1,341 1,399 1,477 1,433 1,490 1,549 1,560 1,578 1,601 1,431 1,181 1,375 1,224 1,158 1,114
1,731 1,683 1,586 1,408 1,391 1,349 1,327 1,369 1,459 1,444 1,569 1,664 1,639 1,605 1,601 1,440 1,192 1,401 1,244 1,158 1,117
% YoY % QoQ
(30.4) (22.7)
(1.4) (2.0)
(22.1) 10.6
(7.2) (4.3)
(5.7) (3.8)
(6.3) (3.5)
Source: PTTGC, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 6
Figure 3: Price and spread movement – aromatics chain Unit : US$/ton
PTTGC – related products and spreads
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 % YoY % QoQ
PX Spot Taiwan 1,635 1,443 1,485 1,432 1,284 1,259 1,346 999 827 935 820 793 750 (9.3) (5.4)
PX FECP 1,552 1,598 1,532 1,483 1,562 1,497 1,344 1,535 1,618 1,409 1,440 1,440 1,303 1,256 1,350 1,035 785 924 823 786 718 (8.5) (8.7)
BZ Spot Korea 1,146 1,148 1,126 997 1,181 1,107 1,177 1,362 1,379 1,286 1,258 1,283 1,297 1,293 1,301 954 670 804 661 606 574 (14.3) (5.3)
Condensate Erawan 859 980 942 914 1,006 927 918 931 948 870 929 937 917 922 872 634 453 533 427 375 303 (33.1) (19.2)
PX Spot Taiwan ‐ Condensate
687 572 556 494 367 337 474 365 374 403 394 417 448 19.8 7.4
PX FECP ‐ Condensate 693 618 590 569 556 570 426 604 670 539 511 502 386 334 479 401 333 391 397 410 415 24.6 1.2
BZ Spot‐ Condensate 286 168 184 84 175 180 259 431 431 416 329 346 380 370 430 320 217 271 235 230 272 25.3 18.3
Source: PTTGC, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 4: Earnings revision in 2016‐18E Key assumptions and earnings projection Utilization rate (%) Olefins HDPE LLDPE LDPE Aromatics Refinery Product Prices / Spreads HDPE ‐ Naphtha MOPJ (US$/ton) LLDPE ‐ Naphtha MOPJ (US$/ton) LDPE ‐ Naphtha MOPJ (US$/ton) PX ‐ Condensate Erawan (US$/ton) BZ ‐ Condensate Erawan (US$/ton) Market GRM (US$/bbl) Unit: Btmn EBITDA Core profit Net profit 16E DCF‐based TP (Bt)
New 2016E
2017E
2018E
Old 2016E
2017E
2018E
% chg. from old 2016E 2017E
95% 100% 100% 100% 86% 84%
98% 100% 100% 100% 88% 100%
98% 100% 100% 100% 88% 100%
97% 100% 100% 100% 88% 88%
98% 100% 100% 100% 89% 100%
98% 100% 100% 100% 89% 100%
700 700 730 350 230 5.0
750 750 780 350 230 4.5
700 700 730 350 230 4.5
650 650 680 330 280 5.0
550 550 580 350 300 4.5
550 550 580 350 300 4.5
8% 8% 7% 6% ‐18% 0%
36% 36% 34% 0% ‐23% 0%
47,137 25,192 25,529 72
51,607 28,824 28,824
52,151 29,118 29,118
52,935 31,060 31,798 70
49,511 27,861 28,074
49,579 27,772 27,772
‐11% ‐19% ‐20% 3%
4% 3% 3%
Source: KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 6
2018E
27% 27% 26% 0% ‐23% 0%
5% 5% 5%
Figure 5: PTTGC’s PBV band
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 6: PTTGC’s valuation comparison with regional peers NAME
Mkt Cap (US$Mn)
PER (x) 16E 17E
PBV (x) 16E 17E
EV/EBITDA (x) 16E 17E
YLD (%) 16E 17E
ROE (%) 16E 17E
PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD FORMOSA PETROCHEMICAL CORP FORMOSA PLASTICS CORP NAN YA PLASTICS CORP TAIWAN IRPC PCL PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PCL SIAM CEMENT PCL/THE INDORAMA VENTURES PCL THAI OIL PCL THAILAND HANWHA CHEMICAL CORP SAMSUNG SDI CO LTD LG CHEM LTD LOTTE CHEMICAL CORP S. KOREA AVERAGE
13,621.8 26,947.8 15,902.1 15,766.0 2,993.9 8,300.5 16,660.0 3,903.5 3,888.5 3,636.9 6,870.4 17,532.0 9,097.3
18.6 19.0 16.7 14.7 17.3 12.0 11.4 13.0 20.1 9.2 12.5 11.2 9.9 14.2 8.2 10.9 13.5
2.0 3.1 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.3 1.2 2.5 1.7 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.7 1.5 3.0 1.5 1.7
9.3 12.2 24.9 15.1 15.4 7.9 6.7 10.2 9.3 6.1 7.9 8.9 11.4 6.1 4.1 7.6 10.3
2.8 4.4 3.9 4.4 3.9 4.2 3.9 3.4 1.7 4.9 3.7 0.8 1.0 1.5 0.8 1.0 2.9
11.5 16.6 10.2 9.7 12.0 11.3 10.7 19.8 8.7 15.3 14.0 7.6 6.2 11.0 15.8 10.2 12.1
17.2 18.4 15.4 14.6 16.4 11.2 10.1 12.6 16.9 9.3 11.5 10.2 26.2 12.7 8.2 14.3 14.1
1.9 3.0 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.2 1.1 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.7 1.4 2.7 1.4 1.6
8.5 12.2 22.5 14.3 14.4 6.9 5.7 9.8 8.5 5.8 7.1 8.7 8.5 5.6 4.1 6.7 9.4
2.9 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.0 4.5 4.4 3.5 1.9 4.8 4.0 0.8 0.9 1.5 0.8 1.0 3.0
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 6
11.5 16.2 10.7 9.8 12.0 11.3 11.3 18.4 9.0 14.0 13.7 7.8 2.6 11.3 13.7 8.8 11.5
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Minority interests Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2014 554,695 (526,068) 28,627 (11,802) 32,767 15,942 16,825 (5,448) 5,240 16,617 (581) 117 (2,239) 177 1,280 15,372 3.41 3.41 16,396 3.64 2.37
2015 403,440 (366,168) 37,272 (11,424) 42,234 16,385 25,849 (5,178) 6,203 26,873 (1,984) (2,289) (2,531) 711 (278) 20,502 4.55 4.55 25,322 5.62 2.80
2016E 379,836 (341,200) 38,636 (9,615) 47,137 18,116 29,022 (3,527) 1,950 27,445 (3,121) 337 0 1,167 (300) 25,529 5.66 5.66 25,191 5.59 2.55
2017E 440,685 (396,458) 44,227 (11,199) 51,607 18,579 33,028 (3,228) 1,945 31,745 (3,913) 0 0 1,292 (300) 28,824 6.39 6.39 28,824 6.39 2.88
2018E 466,906 (422,452) 44,454 (11,350) 52,151 19,047 33,103 (2,772) 1,945 32,276 (4,196) 0 0 1,338 (300) 29,118 6.46 6.46 29,118 6.46 2.90
2014 45,788 43,441 31,577 219,346 41,292 381,443 23,467 89,675 152,993 45,088 224,763 3,687 381,443
2015 47,741 38,274 29,930 220,213 41,387 377,545 9,871 95,976 143,280 45,088 231,552 2,713 377,545
2016E 55,917 32,260 28,044 204,039 42,434 362,693 7,745 70,994 113,572 45,088 246,108 3,013 362,694
2017E 68,626 37,428 32,586 193,185 43,535 375,360 13,377 57,417 108,602 45,088 263,445 3,313 375,360
2018E 70,512 44,772 34,722 181,862 44,650 376,519 5,577 51,841 93,314 45,088 279,592 3,613 376,519
2014 15,372 (117) 15,942 11,198 42,394 (14,760)
2015 20,502 2,289 16,385 5,450 44,626 (17,632)
2016E 25,529 (337) 18,116 4,519 47,826 (2,659)
2017E 28,824 0 18,579 (7,682) 39,721 (8,443)
2018E 29,118 0 19,047 (12,387) 35,778 (8,443)
(14,760) (7,080) (12,317) (15,337) 8,504 (26,230) 1,404 27,634 6.13
(17,632) (7,296) (2,591) (10,691) (4,463) (25,040) 1,953 26,993 5.98
(2,659) (27,108) 2,526 (12,630) 220 (36,992) 8,176 45,168 10.01
(8,443) (7,945) 992 (11,488) (128) (18,569) 12,710 31,279 6.93
(8,443) (13,377) 1,038 (12,971) (139) (25,449) 1,886 27,335 6.06
2014 0.3 (41.5) (53.6) 5.2 5.9 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.5
2015 (27.3) 28.9 33.4 9.2 10.5 6.4 5.1 6.3 7.4
2016E (5.9) 11.6 24.5 10.2 12.4 7.6 6.7 6.6 11.4
2017E 16.0 9.5 12.9 10.0 11.7 7.5 6.5 6.5 12.3
2018E 6.0 1.1 1.0 9.5 11.2 7.1 6.2 6.2 13.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 6
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investment in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investor should consider risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, BIGC, BJC. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI.
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Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 6 of 6
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
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Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
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Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt64.75
Petrochemicals April 27, 2016
Earnings upgrade/ Earnings downgrade /Overview unchanged
Accelerating earnings expected in 2H16E Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
5.882
6.290
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐3.8%
1.6%
Reuters / Bloomberg
PTTGC.BK/PTTGC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
4,508.85
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
292.00/8,302.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
37.00/19.54
52 week High / Low (Bt)
71.25/44.25
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
13,504.00
NVDR (%)
9.26
Estimated free float (%)
51.07
Beta
1.93
URL
www.pttgcgroup.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 5 (Extended)
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
Accelerating earnings in 2H16E; growth story to continue Despite weak 1Q16E earnings followed by continued low 2Q16E earnings, acceleration of earnings should be seen in 2H16E driven by the olefins business (given higher petrochemical prices in line with the oil price and solid spreads). Meanwhile, its growth potential through new projects (i.e., Map Ta Phut retrofit, US petrochemical complex) will enlarge the long‐term earnings base. Thus, our Outperform rating is maintained. Expected to deliver Bt4.65bn NP in 1Q16E We expect PTTGC to deliver Bt4.65bn NP in 1Q16E (‐18% YoY, flat QoQ), given the double impact of a one‐month planned cracker shutdown and the weak refinery operation. Although its polymer sales volume should be insignificantly impacted due to proactive stock management, the loss of ethylene sales from this shutdown will squeeze the EBITDA margin of its olefins business to 20% in 1Q16E. While, its refinery will be weighed down by the weak market GRM to US$4.8/bbl in 1Q16E (sharp drop both YoY and QoQ in line with the weak spreads of middle distillates). However, the aromatics business will show a better performance thanks to the widening PX and BZ spreads in 1Q16E to US$415/ton (given no new supply) and US$272/ton (in line with higher styrene monomer demand), respectively. The small stock loss of Bt360mn will not be a burden in the quarter, and mostly square with the forex gain. Earnings revision made in 2016‐18E We make an earnings revision in 2016‐18E by ‐20%/+3%/+5% to reflect 1) the fine‐tuning of operating rates in 2016E, with lower assumed rates on the refinery and aromatics businesses; 2) the revision made on spread assumptions with an upward revision done on olefins‐chain spreads and a downward revision on aromatics spreads; and 3) the higher percentage of SG&A expenses to sales and a higher effective tax rate. Meanwhile, the 2016E DCF‐based TP is negligibly revised to Bt72/share (vs. Bt70 earlier) given the higher base of the olefins‐chain spread assumption in the long term. Olefins spreads to stay solid in 2H16E against aromatics spreads Given the supply loss from the peak turnaround season at olefins and aromatics plants in 2Q16E, we expect their spreads to stay strong in the quarter. Meanwhile, the olefins spread should remain solid in 2H16E given the firm demand driven by the low polyethylene price and sustained high end‐product prices. In contrast, aromatics spreads are likely to weaken in 2H16E following new supply additions, particularly in the case of PX with the 2mta from Reliance India to hit the market in Jun‐2016. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 554,695 15,372 3.41 (53.62) 2.37 49.85 2014 19.00 10.97 1.30 3.7% 6.6% 30.0%
2015 403,440 20,502 4.55 33.38 2.80 51.35 2015 14.25 8.29 1.26 4.3% 9.0% 25.1%
2016E 379,836 25,529 5.66 24.52 2.55 54.58 2016E 11.44 6.68 1.19 3.9% 10.7% 9.3%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 6
2017E 440,685 28,824 6.39 12.91 2.88 58.43 2017E 10.13 5.70 1.11 4.4% 11.3% 0.8%
2018E 466,906 29,118 6.46 1.02 2.90 62.01 2018E 10.03 5.35 1.04 4.5% 10.7% ‐4.7%
Figure 1: PTTGC’s 1Q16E earnings preview Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
1Q15 100,087 9,027 10,411 (1,393) 673 (499) 243 ‐ 237 (51) 5,631 5,388 1.25 9.0 10.4 5.6 2.3 4.6 0.5 50.9 9.9
4Q15 96,909 7,966 8,911 (1,173) 5,169 (769) 65 (2,963) (114) (178) 4,690 7,589 1.04 8.2 9.2 4.8 2.9 4.0 0.5 51.4 8.1
1Q16E 74,456 8,563 10,231 (1,103) 146 (551) 347 ‐ (40) (117) 4,646 4,299 1.03 11.5 13.7 6.2 2.8 5.4 0.4 50.3 8.1
% YoY (25.6) (5.1) (1.7) (20.8) (78.3) 10.3 43.0 nm nm 129.4 (17.5) (20.2) (17.5)
% QoQ (23.2) 7.5 14.8 (6.0) (97.2) (28.4) 437.6 (100.0) (65.1) (34.4) (1.0) (43.4) (0.6)
2015 403,440 37,272 42,234 (5,178) 6,203 (1,984) (2,289) (2,531) 711 (278) 20,502 25,322 4.55 9.2 10.5 5.1 2.9 5.0 0.5 51.4 9.0
2016E 379,836 38,636 47,137 (3,527) 1,950 (3,121) 337 ‐ 1,167 (300) 25,529 25,191 5.66 10.2 12.4 6.7 3.2 8.2 0.3 54.6 10.7
% YoY (5.9) 3.7 11.6 (31.9) (68.6) 57.3 nm (100.0) 64.2 7.8 24.5 (0.5) 24.5
YTD (% of 16E) 20% 22% 22% 31% 7% 18% 103% nm nm 39% 18% 17% 18%
Source: KT ZMICO Research Figure 2: Price and spread movement ‐ olefins and polymer chain Unit: US$/ton PTTGC – related products and spread Derivatives
Spread Ethylene - MOPJ
Propylene - MOPJ
HDPE - MOPJ
LLDPE - MOPJ
LDPE - MOPJ
MEG (0.65 Ethylene)
1,250 1,300 1,343 1,362 1,237 1,149 1,065 1,247 1,282 1,173 1,143 1,208 1,182 1,093 1,143 1,035 903 1,027 1,025 837 732
335 298 204 172 230 253 285 342 434 407 402 481 507 496 565 567 532 823 509 588 668
476 494 438 394 261 364 342 303 345 439 416 420 434 328 388 385 339 377 275 142 305
469 397 443 441 374 482 428 449 521 585 569 590 620 618 691 802 694 812 774 708 759
520 387 382 328 297 449 426 455 515 575 570 603 625 627 688 785 687 811 763 713 770
828 691 630 520 370 455 412 425 498 586 649 718 705 653 688 793 698 837 783 713 773
445 461 589 672 424 404 285 411 375 351 284 281 245 152 182 246 236 126 394 166 74
(18.9) (12.5)
25.6 13.6
(10.0) 114.8
9.4 7.2
12.1 8.0
10.7 8.4
(68.6) (55.0)
Naphtha MOPJ
Ethylene SEA
Propylene SEA
HDPE SEA
LLDPE SEA
LDPE SEA
MEG SEA
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
903 993 956 888 1,021 894 915 944 961 858 920 946 935 951 913 647 494 563 461 445 344
1,238 1,291 1,160 1,061 1,251 1,146 1,200 1,286 1,395 1,265 1,322 1,427 1,441 1,447 1,478 1,214 1,026 1,386 970 1,033 1,012
1,379 1,487 1,394 1,283 1,281 1,257 1,257 1,247 1,306 1,297 1,336 1,366 1,369 1,279 1,301 1,032 833 940 736 587 649
1,372 1,389 1,399 1,329 1,395 1,376 1,343 1,393 1,482 1,443 1,489 1,536 1,554 1,569 1,604 1,448 1,188 1,375 1,234 1,153 1,103
1,423 1,380 1,338 1,217 1,318 1,342 1,341 1,399 1,477 1,433 1,490 1,549 1,560 1,578 1,601 1,431 1,181 1,375 1,224 1,158 1,114
1,731 1,683 1,586 1,408 1,391 1,349 1,327 1,369 1,459 1,444 1,569 1,664 1,639 1,605 1,601 1,440 1,192 1,401 1,244 1,158 1,117
% YoY % QoQ
(30.4) (22.7)
(1.4) (2.0)
(22.1) 10.6
(7.2) (4.3)
(5.7) (3.8)
(6.3) (3.5)
Source: PTTGC, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 6
Figure 3: Price and spread movement – aromatics chain Unit : US$/ton
PTTGC – related products and spreads
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 % YoY % QoQ
PX Spot Taiwan 1,635 1,443 1,485 1,432 1,284 1,259 1,346 999 827 935 820 793 750 (9.3) (5.4)
PX FECP 1,552 1,598 1,532 1,483 1,562 1,497 1,344 1,535 1,618 1,409 1,440 1,440 1,303 1,256 1,350 1,035 785 924 823 786 718 (8.5) (8.7)
BZ Spot Korea 1,146 1,148 1,126 997 1,181 1,107 1,177 1,362 1,379 1,286 1,258 1,283 1,297 1,293 1,301 954 670 804 661 606 574 (14.3) (5.3)
Condensate Erawan 859 980 942 914 1,006 927 918 931 948 870 929 937 917 922 872 634 453 533 427 375 303 (33.1) (19.2)
PX Spot Taiwan ‐ Condensate
687 572 556 494 367 337 474 365 374 403 394 417 448 19.8 7.4
PX FECP ‐ Condensate 693 618 590 569 556 570 426 604 670 539 511 502 386 334 479 401 333 391 397 410 415 24.6 1.2
BZ Spot‐ Condensate 286 168 184 84 175 180 259 431 431 416 329 346 380 370 430 320 217 271 235 230 272 25.3 18.3
Source: PTTGC, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 4: Earnings revision in 2016‐18E Key assumptions and earnings projection Utilization rate (%) Olefins HDPE LLDPE LDPE Aromatics Refinery Product Prices / Spreads HDPE ‐ Naphtha MOPJ (US$/ton) LLDPE ‐ Naphtha MOPJ (US$/ton) LDPE ‐ Naphtha MOPJ (US$/ton) PX ‐ Condensate Erawan (US$/ton) BZ ‐ Condensate Erawan (US$/ton) Market GRM (US$/bbl) Unit: Btmn EBITDA Core profit Net profit 16E DCF‐based TP (Bt)
New 2016E
2017E
2018E
Old 2016E
2017E
2018E
% chg. from old 2016E 2017E
95% 100% 100% 100% 86% 84%
98% 100% 100% 100% 88% 100%
98% 100% 100% 100% 88% 100%
97% 100% 100% 100% 88% 88%
98% 100% 100% 100% 89% 100%
98% 100% 100% 100% 89% 100%
700 700 730 350 230 5.0
750 750 780 350 230 4.5
700 700 730 350 230 4.5
650 650 680 330 280 5.0
550 550 580 350 300 4.5
550 550 580 350 300 4.5
8% 8% 7% 6% ‐18% 0%
36% 36% 34% 0% ‐23% 0%
47,137 25,192 25,529 72
51,607 28,824 28,824
52,151 29,118 29,118
52,935 31,060 31,798 70
49,511 27,861 28,074
49,579 27,772 27,772
‐11% ‐19% ‐20% 3%
4% 3% 3%
Source: KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 6
2018E
27% 27% 26% 0% ‐23% 0%
5% 5% 5%
Figure 5: PTTGC’s PBV band
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 6: PTTGC’s valuation comparison with regional peers NAME
Mkt Cap (US$Mn)
PER (x) 16E 17E
PBV (x) 16E 17E
EV/EBITDA (x) 16E 17E
YLD (%) 16E 17E
ROE (%) 16E 17E
PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD FORMOSA PETROCHEMICAL CORP FORMOSA PLASTICS CORP NAN YA PLASTICS CORP TAIWAN IRPC PCL PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PCL SIAM CEMENT PCL/THE INDORAMA VENTURES PCL THAI OIL PCL THAILAND HANWHA CHEMICAL CORP SAMSUNG SDI CO LTD LG CHEM LTD LOTTE CHEMICAL CORP S. KOREA AVERAGE
13,621.8 26,947.8 15,902.1 15,766.0 2,993.9 8,300.5 16,660.0 3,903.5 3,888.5 3,636.9 6,870.4 17,532.0 9,097.3
18.6 19.0 16.7 14.7 17.3 12.0 11.4 13.0 20.1 9.2 12.5 11.2 9.9 14.2 8.2 10.9 13.5
2.0 3.1 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.3 1.2 2.5 1.7 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.7 1.5 3.0 1.5 1.7
9.3 12.2 24.9 15.1 15.4 7.9 6.7 10.2 9.3 6.1 7.9 8.9 11.4 6.1 4.1 7.6 10.3
2.8 4.4 3.9 4.4 3.9 4.2 3.9 3.4 1.7 4.9 3.7 0.8 1.0 1.5 0.8 1.0 2.9
11.5 16.6 10.2 9.7 12.0 11.3 10.7 19.8 8.7 15.3 14.0 7.6 6.2 11.0 15.8 10.2 12.1
17.2 18.4 15.4 14.6 16.4 11.2 10.1 12.6 16.9 9.3 11.5 10.2 26.2 12.7 8.2 14.3 14.1
1.9 3.0 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.2 1.1 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.7 1.4 2.7 1.4 1.6
8.5 12.2 22.5 14.3 14.4 6.9 5.7 9.8 8.5 5.8 7.1 8.7 8.5 5.6 4.1 6.7 9.4
2.9 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.0 4.5 4.4 3.5 1.9 4.8 4.0 0.8 0.9 1.5 0.8 1.0 3.0
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 6
11.5 16.2 10.7 9.8 12.0 11.3 11.3 18.4 9.0 14.0 13.7 7.8 2.6 11.3 13.7 8.8 11.5
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Minority interests Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2014 554,695 (526,068) 28,627 (11,802) 32,767 15,942 16,825 (5,448) 5,240 16,617 (581) 117 (2,239) 177 1,280 15,372 3.41 3.41 16,396 3.64 2.37
2015 403,440 (366,168) 37,272 (11,424) 42,234 16,385 25,849 (5,178) 6,203 26,873 (1,984) (2,289) (2,531) 711 (278) 20,502 4.55 4.55 25,322 5.62 2.80
2016E 379,836 (341,200) 38,636 (9,615) 47,137 18,116 29,022 (3,527) 1,950 27,445 (3,121) 337 0 1,167 (300) 25,529 5.66 5.66 25,191 5.59 2.55
2017E 440,685 (396,458) 44,227 (11,199) 51,607 18,579 33,028 (3,228) 1,945 31,745 (3,913) 0 0 1,292 (300) 28,824 6.39 6.39 28,824 6.39 2.88
2018E 466,906 (422,452) 44,454 (11,350) 52,151 19,047 33,103 (2,772) 1,945 32,276 (4,196) 0 0 1,338 (300) 29,118 6.46 6.46 29,118 6.46 2.90
2014 45,788 43,441 31,577 219,346 41,292 381,443 23,467 89,675 152,993 45,088 224,763 3,687 381,443
2015 47,741 38,274 29,930 220,213 41,387 377,545 9,871 95,976 143,280 45,088 231,552 2,713 377,545
2016E 55,917 32,260 28,044 204,039 42,434 362,693 7,745 70,994 113,572 45,088 246,108 3,013 362,694
2017E 68,626 37,428 32,586 193,185 43,535 375,360 13,377 57,417 108,602 45,088 263,445 3,313 375,360
2018E 70,512 44,772 34,722 181,862 44,650 376,519 5,577 51,841 93,314 45,088 279,592 3,613 376,519
2014 15,372 (117) 15,942 11,198 42,394 (14,760)
2015 20,502 2,289 16,385 5,450 44,626 (17,632)
2016E 25,529 (337) 18,116 4,519 47,826 (2,659)
2017E 28,824 0 18,579 (7,682) 39,721 (8,443)
2018E 29,118 0 19,047 (12,387) 35,778 (8,443)
(14,760) (7,080) (12,317) (15,337) 8,504 (26,230) 1,404 27,634 6.13
(17,632) (7,296) (2,591) (10,691) (4,463) (25,040) 1,953 26,993 5.98
(2,659) (27,108) 2,526 (12,630) 220 (36,992) 8,176 45,168 10.01
(8,443) (7,945) 992 (11,488) (128) (18,569) 12,710 31,279 6.93
(8,443) (13,377) 1,038 (12,971) (139) (25,449) 1,886 27,335 6.06
2014 0.3 (41.5) (53.6) 5.2 5.9 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.5
2015 (27.3) 28.9 33.4 9.2 10.5 6.4 5.1 6.3 7.4
2016E (5.9) 11.6 24.5 10.2 12.4 7.6 6.7 6.6 11.4
2017E 16.0 9.5 12.9 10.0 11.7 7.5 6.5 6.5 12.3
2018E 6.0 1.1 1.0 9.5 11.2 7.1 6.2 6.2 13.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 6
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investment in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investor should consider risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, BIGC, BJC. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 6 of 6
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
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Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
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Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
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Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
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Telephone: 083-490-2873
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Chonburi Branch
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Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
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Bangkok 10330
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Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
