PTT Global Chemical Outperform (17E TP Bt71.00)
Company Update
Close Bt60.00
Petrochemicals October 26, 2016
Earnings upgrade/ Earnings downgrade / Overview unchanged
Olefins business behind the accelerating performance in 2H16E Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
5.212
6.139
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐5.8%
4.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
PTTGC.BK/PTTGC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
4,508.85
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
271.00/7,741.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
37.00/19.97
52 week High / Low (Bt)
65.50/44.25
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
12,725.00
NVDR (%)
8.59
Estimated free float (%)
50
Beta
1.68
URL
www.pttgcgroup.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
LT outlook intact Given the earnings acceleration in 2H16E towards 2017E on a smooth operation, along with growth potential from new project expansion (i.e., the Map Ta Phut Retrofit and PO & Polyols Project are on track, while the US petrochemical complex’s final investment cost is the challenging issue before the project’s FID is concluded in 1Q17E) and its strengthening position with a fully‐broadened product chain from the possible asset injection by PTT (particularly in the case of the 40%‐ owned HMC with 800kta polypropylene production) as the price catalysts, we maintain an Outperform rating on PTTGC. Expect stronger NP of Bt6.2bn in 3Q16E We expect PTTGC to deliver Bt6.2bn NP in 3Q16E (+417% YoY, +27% QoQ) due to the improving performance at its olefins business, along with projected stock gain of Bt500mn (given the lower crude cost in 2Q16 following its refinery’s planned shutdown in May‐June 2016) and an insurance claim amounting to US$33mn from the unplanned shutdown of its 1mta Olefins Unit#3 in 2Q16. Its core profit is projected at Bt4.85bn in 3Q16E (+86% YoY, flat QoQ), with a higher contribution from the refinery and aromatics as the main driver YoY given projected stock gain of Bt500mn (vs. stock loss of Bt2.7bn in 3Q15) alongside aromatics’ minor unit shutdown with a projected operating rate of 75% in the quarter (vs. 57% in 3Q15 on the 65‐day shutdown at its aromatics unit#2); meanwhile, the improving performance at its olefins business should be the main support both YoY and QoQ. Olefins chain likely to deliver a solid EBITDA margin of 25% in 3Q16E Given the projected higher utilization rate of 93% at its olefins fleet and 113% at its polymer plants, along with a higher olefins yield following the higher ethane flow and solid polyethylene prices, we expect the adjusted EBITDA margin of the olefins business to stay high at 25% in 3Q16E (vs. 24% in 3Q15 and 2Q16). Given the accelerating ethane flow from PTT to 270 tons/hour in Aug‐2016 and the record high at 292 tons/hour in 3Q16, the company’s olefins yield is likely to remain on an increasing trend to 93% in 3Q16E (vs. 81% in 1Q16, 85% in 2Q16). The yield is subsequently likely to peak at 98% in 4Q16E, signaling another good quarter for the olefins performance. Earnings forecasts maintained Given the expectation of core profit acceleration in 4Q16E mainly driven by the solid performance at its olefins business and possible stock gain in the quarter should the current Dubai price be maintained toward this yearend, we currently keep our 2016E NP at Bt22.2bn, with the projected 9M16E NP representing 72% of our full‐year forecast. We also keep our 2017E NP at Bt29bn, with a higher operating rate as the growth catalyst, particularly in the case of olefins and the refinery. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 554,695 15,372 3.41 (53.62) 2.37 49.85 2014 17.61 10.31 1.20 4.0% 6.6% 30.0%
2015 403,440 20,502 4.55 33.38 2.80 51.35 2015 13.20 7.78 1.17 4.7% 9.0% 25.1%
2016E 371,211 22,164 4.91 8.11 2.46 53.84 2016E 12.21 6.99 1.11 4.1% 9.3% 13.4%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 6
2017E 440,685 28,922 6.41 30.49 2.89 57.79 2017E 9.36 5.51 1.04 4.8% 11.5% 5.4%
2018E 466,906 29,220 6.48 1.03 2.92 61.39 2018E 9.26 4.99 0.98 4.9% 10.9% ‐3.7%
Figure 1: PTTGC’s 3Q16E earnings preview Profit and Loss (Btmn)
3Q15
2Q16
3Q16E
% YoY
% QoQ
9M16E
% YoY
2015
2016E
% YoY
% YTD
94,466 6,311 7,614 (1,257) (195) 216 (1,393) ‐ 485 (86) 1,207 2,600 0.27 6.7 8.1 1.3 2.5 2.7 0.5 51.0 2.1
66,385 8,323 9,823 (1,068) 669 (380) (50) ‐ 53 21 4,924 4,974 1.10 12.5 14.8 7.4 2.9 5.3 0.4 52.0 8.4
90,212 9,558 10,835 (1,068) 100 (786) 239 1,149 65 (117) 6,238 4,849 1.38 10.6 12.0 6.9 2.9 6.2 0.4 52.4 10.6
(4.5) 51.5 42.3 (15.1) nm nm nm nm (86.6) 36.0 416.7 86.5 412.4
35.9 14.8 10.3 0.0 (85.1) 107.2 nm nm 22.6 nm 26.7 (2.5) 25.8
238,070 25,499 29,847 (3,226) 1,291 (1,789) 880 1,149 296 (127) 15,870 13,840 3.54 10.7 12.5 6.7 2.9 5.4 0.4 52.4 9.0
(22.3) (13.0) (10.4) (19.4) 24.9 47.2 nm 165.8 (67.8) (34.6) 0.4 (22.0) 1.0
403,440 37,272 42,234 (5,178) 6,203 (1,984) (2,289) (2,531) 711 (278) 20,502 25,322 4.55 9.2 10.5 5.1 2.9 5.0 0.5 51.4 9.0
371,211 34,710 43,345 (3,527) 1,950 (2,693) 243 ‐ 1,262 (300) 22,164 21,922 4.91 9.4 11.7 6.0 3.1 7.2 0.3 53.8 9.3
(8.0) (6.9) 2.6 (31.9) (68.6) 35.7 nm (100.0) 77.5 7.8 8.1 (13.4) 8.1
64% 73% 69% 91% 66% 66% 363% nm 23% 42% 72% 63% 72%
Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Gn (Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
Source: KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Price and spread movement ‐ olefins and polymer chain Unit: US$/ton PTTGC – related products and spread Derivatives
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 % YoY % QoQ
Spread
Naphtha MOPJ
Ethylene SEA
Propylene SEA
HDPE SEA
LLDPE SEA
LDPE SEA
MEG SEA
1,021 894 915 944 961 858 920 946 935 951 913 647 494 563 461 445 344 411 389 (15.7) (5.5)
1,251 1,146 1,200 1,286 1,395 1,265 1,322 1,427 1,441 1,447 1,478 1,214 1,026 1,386 970 1,033 1,012 1,099 1,057 9.0 (3.8)
1,281 1,257 1,257 1,247 1,306 1,297 1,336 1,366 1,369 1,279 1,301 1,032 833 940 736 587 649 719 728 (1.1) 1.3
1,395 1,376 1,343 1,393 1,482 1,443 1,489 1,536 1,554 1,569 1,604 1,448 1,188 1,375 1,234 1,153 1,103 1,153 1,139 (7.7) (1.2)
1,318 1,342 1,341 1,399 1,477 1,433 1,490 1,549 1,560 1,578 1,601 1,431 1,181 1,375 1,224 1,158 1,114 1,181 1,193 (2.5) 1.0
1,391 1,349 1,327 1,369 1,459 1,444 1,569 1,664 1,639 1,605 1,601 1,440 1,192 1,401 1,244 1,158 1,117 1,183 1,195 (3.9) 1.0
1,237 1,149 1,065 1,247 1,282 1,173 1,143 1,208 1,182 1,093 1,143 1,035 903 1,027 1,025 837 732 820 762 (25.7) (7.1)
Ethylene - MOPJ
Propylene - MOPJ
HDPE - MOPJ
LLDPE - MOPJ
LDPE - MOPJ
MEG (0.65 Ethylene)
230 253 285 342 434 407 402 481 507 496 565 567 532 823 509 588 668 742 749 (3.2) 0.9
261 364 342 303 345 439 416 420 434 328 388 385 339 377 275 142 305 770 804 5.4 4.5
374 482 428 449 521 585 569 590 620 618 691 802 694 812 774 708 759 773 806 3.0 4.3
297 449 426 455 515 575 570 603 625 627 688 785 687 811 763 713 770 105 75 (81.0) (28.6)
370 455 412 425 498 586 649 718 705 653 688 793 698 837 783 713 773 411 389 (15.7) (5.5)
424 404 285 411 375 351 284 281 245 152 182 246 236 126 394 166 74 1,099 1,057 9.0 (3.8)
Source: PTTGC, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 6
Figure 3: Price and spread movement – aromatics chain Unit : US$/ton
PTTGC – related products and spreads
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 % YoY % QoQ
PX Spot Taiwan 1,635 1,443 1,485 1,432 1,284 1,259 1,346 999 827 935 820 793 750 805 806 (1.7) 0.1
PX FECP 1,562 1,497 1,344 1,535 1,618 1,409 1,440 1,440 1,303 1,256 1,350 1,035 785 924 823 786 718 799 789 (4.1) (1.3)
BZ Spot Korea 1,181 1,107 1,177 1,362 1,379 1,286 1,258 1,283 1,297 1,293 1,301 954 670 804 661 606 574 628 640 (3.2) 1.9
Condensate Erawan 1,006 927 918 931 948 870 929 937 917 922 872 634 453 533 427 375 303 394 386 (9.6) (2.0)
PX Spot Taiwan ‐ Condensate
687 572 556 494 367 337 474 365 374 403 394 417 448 411 420 6.6 2.2
PX FECP ‐ Condensate 556 570 426 604 670 539 511 502 386 334 479 401 333 391 397 410 415 405 402 1.3 (0.7)
BZ Spot‐ Condensate 175 180 259 431 431 416 329 346 380 370 430 320 217 271 235 230 272 234 253 7.7 8.1
Source: PTTGC, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 4: PTTGC’s PBV band
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 6
Figure 5: PTTGC’s valuation comparison with regional peers NAME PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP FORMOSA PETROCHEMICAL CORP FORMOSA PLASTICS CORP NAN YA PLASTICS CORP TAIWAN IRPC PCL PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PCL SIAM CEMENT PCL INDORAMA VENTURES PCL THAI OIL PCL THAILAND HANWHA CHEMICAL CORP SAMSUNG SDI CO LTD LG CHEM LTD LOTTE CHEMICAL CORP S. KOREA AVERAGE
Mkt Cap (US$Mn) 13,450.4 32,099.8 17,120.3 16,285.7 2,842.3 7,737.6 17,515.2 4,064.6 4,189.1 4,180.8 5,600.2 14,530.7 9,390.3
PER (x) 16E 17E 20.9 19.0 17.9 19.8 16.5 16.0 15.7 16.7 17.8 17.9 10.7 10.6 12.2 9.4 12.2 12.0 14.2 14.8 7.8 9.9 11.1 10.9 6.6 7.4 25.2 19.6 12.8 11.4 7.2 6.7 12.8 11.4 13.9 13.4
PBV (x) 16E 17E 2.1 2.0 3.6 3.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 2.3 2.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.2 3.0 2.8 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 16E 17E 10.2 9.3 11.8 12.9 25.7 20.2 15.3 14.5 15.7 14.2 7.6 6.6 7.0 5.5 9.7 9.5 9.8 8.9 5.8 6.3 7.9 7.1 6.8 7.1 n.a. 4.4 5.3 5.0 4.4 4.5 5.5 5.3 9.7 8.9
YLD (%) 16E 17E 2.4 2.6 4.2 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.7 4.7 4.1 4.8 3.5 3.7 2.5 2.2 5.8 4.5 4.1 4.1 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 3.1 3.0
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 6
ROE (%) 16E 17E 10.5 10.7 19.4 16.9 10.9 11.1 9.4 8.9 12.6 11.9 11.9 11.3 9.3 11.5 21.9 19.6 13.0 10.8 19.1 13.7 15.6 14.1 14.7 11.8 1.3 2.8 10.1 10.3 19.1 15.5 11.3 10.1 13.2 12.1
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Minority interests Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 552,881 (500,673) 52,208 (12,966) 55,979 16,737 39,242 (6,084) 3,757 36,915 (1,976) (1,322) (833) (77) 433 33,140 7.35 7.35 35,294 7.83 3.40
2014 554,695 (526,068) 28,627 (11,802) 32,767 15,942 16,825 (5,448) 5,240 16,617 (581) 117 (2,239) 177 1,280 15,372 3.41 3.41 16,396 3.64 2.37
2015 403,440 (366,168) 37,272 (11,424) 42,234 16,385 25,849 (5,178) 6,203 26,873 (1,984) (2,289) (2,531) 711 (278) 20,502 4.55 4.55 25,322 5.62 2.80
2016E 371,211 (336,501) 34,710 (9,481) 43,345 18,116 25,229 (3,527) 1,950 23,652 (2,693) 243 0 1,262 (300) 22,164 4.91 4.91 21,922 4.86 2.46
2017E 440,685 (396,458) 44,227 (11,199) 51,607 18,579 33,028 (3,228) 1,945 31,745 (3,913) 0 0 1,390 (300) 28,922 6.41 6.41 28,922 6.41 2.89
2018E 466,906 (422,452) 44,454 (11,350) 52,151 19,047 33,103 (2,772) 1,945 32,276 (4,196) 0 0 1,440 (300) 29,220 6.48 6.48 29,220 6.48 2.92
2013 44,384 61,779 50,240 230,934 45,373 432,710 24,438 95,785 187,353 45,088 238,503 6,855 432,710
2014 45,788 43,441 31,577 219,346 41,292 381,443 23,467 89,675 152,993 45,088 224,763 3,687 381,443
2015 47,741 38,274 29,930 220,213 41,387 377,545 9,871 95,976 143,280 45,088 231,552 2,713 377,545
2016E 46,277 33,562 32,267 204,039 42,906 359,050 7,745 70,994 113,293 45,088 242,744 3,013 359,050
2017E 56,837 39,843 38,017 193,185 44,532 372,412 13,377 57,417 108,515 45,088 260,584 3,313 372,412
2018E 67,533 40,934 40,509 181,862 46,230 377,068 5,577 51,841 96,666 45,088 276,789 3,613 377,068
2013 33,140 1,322 16,737 (10,114) 41,085 (14,445)
2014 15,372 (117) 15,942 11,198 42,394 (14,760)
2015 20,502 2,289 16,385 5,450 44,626 (17,632)
2016E 22,164 (243) 18,116 (1,332) 38,705 (2,733)
2017E 28,922 0 18,579 (9,869) 37,632 (8,524)
2018E 29,220 0 19,047 (3,121) 45,146 (8,533)
(14,445) (16,634) (1,377) (15,337) (8,970) (42,317) (15,678) 26,640 5.91
(14,760) (7,080) (12,317) (15,337) 8,504 (26,230) 1,404 27,634 6.13
(17,632) (7,296) (2,591) (10,691) (4,463) (25,040) 1,953 26,993 5.98
(2,733) (27,108) 2,620 (12,630) (319) (37,437) (1,464) 35,973 7.97
(8,524) (7,945) 1,090 (11,082) (611) (18,549) 10,560 29,108 6.45
(8,533) (13,377) 1,140 (13,015) (666) (25,917) 10,696 36,613 8.12
2013 (2.3) 3.8 (2.5) 9.4 10.1 7.1 6.0 6.4 5.4
2014 0.3 (41.5) (53.6) 5.2 5.9 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.5
2015 (27.3) 28.9 33.4 9.2 10.5 6.4 5.1 6.3 7.4
2016E (8.0) 2.6 8.1 9.4 11.7 6.8 6.0 5.9 11.4
2017E 18.7 19.1 30.5 10.0 11.7 7.5 6.6 6.6 12.3
2018E 6.0 1.1 1.0 9.5 11.2 7.1 6.3 6.3 13.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 6
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, TFD, SUTHA. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of RJH, BCPG, ITEL, SQ, ALLA, BPP.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 6 of 6
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th
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
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8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
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Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
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Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.