SC Asset Corporation Underperform (17E TP Bt3.50)
Earnings Review
Close Bt3.78
Property Development February 23, 2017
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
2016 net profit increased 3.8% YoY Results date: February 22, 2017 Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.432
0.550
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
1.9%
0%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SC.BK/SC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
4,179.33
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
16.00/451.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/4.36
52 week High / Low (Bt)
3.96/2.98
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
4,698.00 1.75
Estimated free float (%)
34.02
Beta
0.85
URL
www.scasset.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Worarat Powpaka Analyst, no. 17992
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6248
Maintain Underperform with the 17E TP at Bt3.5 A short‐term positive point for SC is the interesting 2016 dividend yield of 5%. However, we expect 2017E earnings to decline YoY due to a lower condo backlog to be realized in 2017E. Hence, we maintain Underperform with the 17E TP at Bt3.5. 4Q16 net profit decreased 68.2% YoY and 23.9% QoQ SC reported net profit at Bt263mn (‐68.2% YoY, ‐23.9% QoQ) and core profit at Bt224bn (‐69.5% YoY,‐35.3% QoQ), 23% below our estimate, mainly due to lower‐than‐expected transfers and average GPM. 4Q16 transfers were Bt2.8bn (‐42.3% YoY, ‐0.9% QoQ), 13% below our forecast. The average GPM was 31.9% (our estimate was 34%) and the SG&A expenses‐to‐revenue ratio was 24.3% (our estimate was 24.4%). SC also booked extra gain from fair value adjustment on investment property of Bt39.4mn in the period. 2016 net profit increased 3.8% YoY 2016 net profit was Bt1.97bn (+3.8% YoY). However, if we exclude 2016 extra gain from a fair value adjustment on investment property amounting to Bt39mn, 2016 core profit would be Bt1.93bn, increasing 7% YoY, but 3% below our estimate. Transfers were Bt13.7bn (+3.3% YoY) due to an increase from both low‐rise and condo projects but 3% below our assumption. The average GPM was 36.1% (our estimate was 36.6%) and the SG&A expenses‐to‐revenue ratio was 18.9% (our estimate was 19.1%). Maintain 2017E net profit We maintain our 2017E forecast at Bt1.8bn, decreasing 5.7% YoY, as SC has backlog of only Bt1bn to be realized in 2017E, securing 7% of our residential forecast. However, we anticipate 2018E net profit to improve by 16.9% YoY from prebuilt low‐rise projects, as we expect SC to have more available low‐rise projects (estimated at around Bt26bn at end‐ 17E) that will be ready for sales and transfers after huge project launches of Bt18bn in 2017E along with the 2017E condo backlog of Bt3.2bn to be realized in the period. Announced 2016 DPS at Bt0.19, implying dividend yield of 5.0% SC announced a 2016 DPS of Bt0.19, implying a dividend yield of 5.0%. The stock will go XD on April 28 and the dividend will be paid on May 19, 2017. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Core EPS (Bt) Core EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) Normalized PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 12,601 1,558 0.42 44.8 0.40 44.4 0.21 3.14
2015 14,050 1,895 0.45 8.0 0.43 7.1 0.18 3.16
2016 14,434 1,968 0.47 3.3 0.46 6.5 0.19 3.44
2017E 15,122 1,855 0.44 (5.7) 0.44 (3.8) 0.18 3.69
2018E 18,656 2,315 0.55 24.8 0.55 24.8 0.22 4.06
2014 9.0 9.4 12.3 1.2 5.4 13.4 53.9
2015 8.3 8.8 11.2 1.2 4.8 14.3 51.7
2016 8.1 8.2 11.5 1.1 5.0 13.6 52.0
2017E 8.6 8.6 11.9 1.0 4.7 12.0 49.4
2018E 6.9 6.9 9.7 0.9 5.8 13.6 45.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn)
FY Ended 31 Dec
4Q15
3Q16
4Q16
% YoY
% QoQ
2015
2016E
% YoY
Revenue from project sales Total revenue Gross profit
4,824 5,020 1,815
2,809 2,999 1,072
2,785 2,970 1,009
(42.3) (40.8) (44.4)
(0.9) (0.9) (5.9)
13,236 14,050 5,145
13,678 14,434 5,216
3.3 2.7 1.4
EBITDA
1,007
482
344
(65.8)
(28.6)
2,571
2,650
3.1
(41)
(17)
(7)
(81.7)
(55.1)
(187)
(91)
(51.2)
Interest expense Other income
12
10
11
(14.0)
10.5
41
31
(23.9)
(202)
(87)
(67)
(66.8)
(23.1)
(485)
(497)
2.6
Net profit (loss)
827
346
263
(68.2)
(23.9)
1,895
1,968
3.8
Core net profit (loss)
734
346
224
(69.5)
(35.3)
1,802
1,929
7.0
Reported EPS (THB)
0.20
0.08
0.06
(68.2)
(23.9)
0.45
0.47
3.3
Core EPS (THB)
0.18
0.08
0.05
(69.5)
(35.3)
0.43
0.46
6.5
Income tax
Gross margin – project sales (%)
35.0
33.8
31.9
34.9
34.6
Gross margin ‐ overall (%)
36.1
35.7
34.0
36.6
36.1
EBITDA margin (%)
20.1
16.1
11.6
18.3
18.4
Net margin (%)
16.5
11.5
8.9
13.5
13.6
Current ratio (x)
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.4
Interest coverage (x)
23.9
27.0
39.9
13.2
27.6
Debt / equity (x)
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
BVPS (Bt)
3.16
3.39
3.46
3.16
3.46
ROE (%)
14.8
18.1
13.8
14.3
13.8
Source: SC, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: Presales
Figure 3: Distribution of backlog as of 30 Dec 16
Btmn 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 ‐
2017 1,000
2020 1,300
Low rise
Source: SC, KT ZMICO Research
Condo
Backlog Bt6,000mn
2016
2015
4Q16
3Q16
2Q16
1Q16
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
2019 500
2018 3,200
Source: SC, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, TFD. KT ZMICO is a co underwriter of RPH. Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068