Somboon Advance Technology Company Update
Underperform (17E TP Bt15.00) Close Bt14.40
Automotive
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
September 7, 2016
Patience for recovery Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.458
1.578
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐2.6%
0.1%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SAT.BK/SAT TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
425.19
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
6.00/160.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/22.00
52 week High / Low (Bt)
18.40/12.40
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
485.00 3.89
Estimated free float (%)
53.83
Beta
0.50
URL
www.satpcl.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
UNDERPERFORM rating maintained SAT’s unimpressive earnings this year have kept its share price underperforming the SET YTD. We expect to see SAT’s earnings recover in 2H16 and continue the momentum in 2017E. Nevertheless, we see no near‐term catalyst and its earnings growth next year will continue to lag behind peers. Thus, our UNDERPERFORM rating is unchanged and we roll over to the 2017E target price of Bt15 based on its historical average PER. Near‐term outlook remains muted SAT guided that 3Q16E auto output will be unusually weak QoQ due to the ongoing slowdown in the export market, particularly for pickup cars, as well as the temporary factor of the plant relocation of one automaker. Based on customers’ rolling orders on hand, SAT confirms its estimate of overall auto output this year at 1.9mn units, flat YoY, despite the 4%YoY growth recorded in 7M16. For 2017, SAT forecasts auto output to gain 5%YoY to 2.0mn units thanks to domestic car sales recovery. The domestic car market will resume positive growth for the first time in five years owing to the effects from the government’s first‐time car buyer scheme having faded out as well as the domestic spending recovery. Solid improvement for Kubota in 2H16E Kubota, which normally contributes 16% of total revenue, was another drag on SAT’s 1H16 results as its sales dropped 14%YoY. SAT expects its production for Kubota to recover by 38%HoH in 2H16E thanks to the regained momentum of farm income on the easing of the drought and rising farm prices. Kubota will also launch a new model with higher horsepower, which is expected to be well matched with market demand. The worst is likely behind it We expect SAT to report flat QoQ earnings in 3Q16E but decline YoY given the high base last year when Toyota ramped up the production of its new pickup model. We maintain our 2016E earnings forecast of a 6% drop this year, with an estimated 11% increase in 2017E. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
Revenues (Btmn)
8,084
8,644
8,472
8,968
9,665
Net profit (Btmn)
650
642
605
674
755
EPS (Bt)
1.53
1.51
1.42
1.58
1.77
Norm. EPS (Bt)
1.53
1.51
1.42
1.58
1.77
EPS growth (%)
(19.88)
(1.47)
(5.51)
11.33
11.98
0.60
0.60
0.57
0.63
0.71
Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
12.27
13.01
13.83
14.84
15.98
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
PER (x)
10.60
11.40
12.08
10.85
9.69
5.28
4.91
3.80
3.37
3.18
EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x)
1.32
1.32
1.24
1.16
1.08
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak
Dividend yield (%)
3.70
3.51
3.31
3.69
4.13
Analyst, no. 2482
ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
12.88 34.47
11.94 17.61
10.61 7.65
11.05 0.91
11.51 1.69
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6273
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: Peer comparison Stock
Price (Bt) AH u 13.30 PCSGH 5.10 n 13.00 SAT STANLY n 173.00 SIMPLE AVERAGE
Mkt Cap (Btmn) 4,219 7,778 5,528 13,256
EPS Growth 2016E 2017E 16.7% 21.3% ‐12.3% 19.9% ‐5.5% 11.3% ‐19.4% 9.7%
PER (x) 2016E 2017E 11.74 9.69 16.61 13.86 9.13 8.20 12.62 11.50 12.53 10.81
Yield 2016E 2017E 3.2% 3.4% 5.7% 5.7% 4.4% 4.9% 3.0% 3.5% 4.1% 4.4%
ROE PEG 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E 6.5% 8.0% 0.70 0.46 9.4% 11.1% nm 0.70 10.6% 11.1% nm 0.72 9.2% 9.6% nm 1.18 8.9% 9.9%
Source: Bloomberg and KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: PER and PBV band 30.0
PER (x) 25.0
3.5
20.0
+2 SD
3.0
15.0
+1 SD
2.5
+1 S.D.
2.0
Average
10.0 5.0
PBV (x)
4.0
1.5 1.0
‐1 SD
Average ‐1 S.D.
0.5 0.0 Jan‐05 Jul‐05 Jan‐06 Jul‐06 Jan‐07 Jul‐07 Jan‐08 Jul‐08 Jan‐09 Jul‐09 Jan‐10 Jul‐10 Jan‐11 Jul‐11 Jan‐12 Jul‐12 Jan‐13 Jul‐13 Jan‐14 Jul‐14 Jan‐15 Jul‐15 Jan‐16 Jul‐16
Jan ‐0 5 Ju l‐0 5 Jan ‐0 6 Ju l‐0 6 Jan ‐0 7 Ju l‐0 7 Jan ‐0 8 Ju l‐0 8 Jan ‐0 9 Ju l‐0 9 Jan ‐1 0 Ju l‐1 0 Jan ‐1 1 Ju l‐1 1 Jan ‐1 2 Ju l‐1 2 Jan ‐1 3 Ju l‐1 3 Jan ‐1 4 Ju l‐1 4 Jan ‐1 5 Ju l‐1 5 Jan ‐1 6 Ju l‐1 6
0.0
Source: Bloomberg and KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, EARTH. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH, RJH, BCPG.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.