Singer Thailand Outperform (15E TP Bt15.20)
Company Update
Close Bt14.40
Commerce June 15, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Synergy to be seen soon
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.030
1.157
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐7.8%
‐5.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SINGER.BK/SINGER TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
270.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
4.00/116.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/1.83
52 week High / Low (Bt)
21.20/11.70
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
1,590.00
NVDR (%)
5.83
Estimated free float (%)
59.97
Beta
0.63
URL
www.singerthai.co.th
CGR
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak Analyst, no. 2482
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6273
OUTPERFORM rating maintained on limited upside SINGER and JMART are in talks on creating synergy that should enable further growth with no business overlap. We view that JMART will help SINGER in terms of expanding its product range and sales channels to untapped areas. Our 2016E earnings forecast will have upside risk once the details of their cooperation are finalized. With insignificant changes to be seen this year and limited upside to the target price, our OUTPERFORM rating is kept unchanged. No change in SINGER’s business model JMART and SINGER jointly held a press conference last Friday to provide information on their initial strategic direction, which has the aim of creating synergy to foster growth with no business overlap. JMART, SINGER’s new major shareholder with nearly a 25% stake, also confirmed that there will not be any changes to SINGER’s business model or management team given their strong business experience. Utilizing each other’s strengths to foster growth JMART and SINGER have preliminarily concluded to combine their strengths in terms of product ranges and distribution channels to foster growth. They will sell their products in each other’s shops in a bid to expand into untapped areas. JMART will also help SINGER widen its product offerings, including mobile handsets and new financing services. With JMT’s strong expertise in debt collection, SINGER will be able to better manage its NPLs and enhance growth. 2015E earnings forecast unchanged with upside risk in 2016E Although we have a positive view on the deal, the impact of the cooperation on SINGER’s performance is expected to be minimal this year. Our 2016E earnings forecast has upside risk but the quantified benefit will be more definite when a concrete strategic plan has been finalized. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2012 2,951 226 0.84 59% 0.30 4.42 2012 19.93 14.15 3.78 1.8% 20.8% 47.9%
2013 3,627 321 1.19 42% 0.45 5.30 2013 15.50 12.71 3.47 2.4% 24.4% 65.9%
2014 3,427 241 0.89 ‐25% 0.53 5.84 2014 14.20 11.12 2.17 4.2% 16.0% 48.6%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2015E 3,634 257 0.95 6% 0.57 6.26 2015E 15.16 10.84 2.30 4.0% 15.7% 27.6%
2016E 3,959 293 1.09 14% 0.65 6.78 2016E 13.25 9.40 2.12 4.5% 16.7% 15.0%
No change in SINGER’s business model During a joint press conference last Friday, JMART and SINGER said they are discussing the strategic direction in order to create synergy, which should lead to further growth with no business overlap. JMART also confirmed that there will be no changes to SINGER’s business model or management team given their strong business experience. JMART became SINGER’s major shareholder after acquiring nearly a 25% stake in SINGER worth around Bt945mn. The remaining 15% stake was acquired by the Sahapat Group and a group of investors. Combining outlets to strengthen distribution network While the business cooperation is underway, both companies have preliminarily agreed to combine their outlets to strengthen their distribution network and reduce costs. SINGER expects to expand their shops in JMART’s 255 retail shops nationwide in a bid to access urban areas. Note that 60% of JMART’s existing shops are in the Bangkok metropolitan area. At the same time, SINGER will utilize its showroom space by allowing JMART to set up a corner in their 200 shops nationwide, with the company having a strong presence upcountry. JMART plans to open booths in 50 selected SINGER shops this year, doubling this to 100 next year. New products from JMART will be added to SINGER’s portfolio SINGER will also capitalize on JMART’s leading position in mobile handset distribution by expanding its product variety. In the initial stage, a total of 500 out of SINGER’s experienced sales force of 3,000 will be assigned to sell handsets for JMART. JMART has strong relationships with mobile phone producers and negotiations will take place aimed at making exclusive handset models available for sales through SINGER’s direct sales channel. First‐time smartphone users in rural areas are the priority target. It is expected that transactions will initially take place through a consignment agreement. This will help SINGER better understand user demand and lessen inventory management risk. Furthermore, greater mobile penetration in local communities will lead to higher service revenue from top‐ups on its airtime vending machines. JMART targets handset sales at these new channels of around Bt100mn this year and they are expected to reach Bt1bn next year. While the details on the business models and sharing have not yet been finalized, our net profit forecast for SINGER will increase by 1% this year and 10% next year on the assumption of all these sales being on a cash basis. More efficient NPL management SINGER will also capitalize on the debt business expertise of JMART’s subsidiary, JMT, in order to reduce credit risk. SINGER currently outsources JMT to collect aging receivables. This will free up SINGER’s sales force from bad debt collection and allow them to focus on sales and installments. SINGER may also consider selling its NPLs to reduce them from 6.5% currently, thus improving capital management. While SINGER has confirmed that they are not interested in the high‐risk nano‐finance business, JMT may offer this service to SINGER’s 0.18mn grassroots installment receivable accounts. Cost savings on using the SINGER brand SINGER told us that it will continue to have a royalty bearing license, with the Retail Holdings N.V. (RHDGF) group using the Singer brand locally and in neighboring markets. The details are under negotiation. At present, SINGER has an agreement to pay a total of 1.1% to Singer Asia, including 0.1% of the net sales of SINGER brand products for the trademark license fees and 1% of net sales for offshore service fees for marketing, product planning, design development and other services. For every 0.1% reduction in royalty fees, SINGER’s profit estimates and fair value will increase by 1.1%. REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 1: PER and PBV band
PER (x)
30.00 25.00
+2.0SD
5.0
20.00 15.00
PBV (x)
6.0
+1.0SD
4.0
+3 S.D. +2 S.D.
10.00 5.00
3.0
+1 S.D.
2.0
Average
‐0.5SD
‐ (5.00)
1.0
(10.00)
‐
0.0
Jan‐02 Aug‐02 Apr‐03 Nov‐03 Jul‐04 Feb‐05 Oct‐05 Jun‐06 Feb‐07 Sep‐07 May‐08 Mar‐09 Oct‐09 Jun‐10 Jan‐11 Sep‐11 Apr‐12 Nov‐12 Jul‐13 Feb‐14 Oct‐14 Jun‐15
Jan‐02 Aug‐02 Apr‐03 Nov‐03 Jul‐04 Feb‐05 Oct‐05 Jun‐06 Feb‐07 Sep‐07 May‐08 Mar‐09 Oct‐09 Jun‐10 Jan‐11 Sep‐11 Apr‐12 Nov‐12 Jul‐13 Feb‐14 Oct‐14 Jun‐15
(15.00)
Source: Bloomberg and KT Zmico Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
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Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
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Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
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Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
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Phuket Branch
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422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
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Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
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Bangkok 10330
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Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
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Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
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624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.