US Tight Oil: Long Term Outlook AWS
US Tight Oil: Long Term Outlook
Robert Kleinberg Schlumberger Cambridge, Massachusetts
CSIS 27 February 2018
Schlumberger Schlumberger is the actual provider of exploration, drilling, and production services to the oil and gas industry. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Schlumberger.
Dimmit County, Texas Greene County, Pennsylvania 2
US Crude Oil Production for Tight Oil Fields (millions barrels per year)
Supply Shock US Energy Information Administration 3500
3000 Actual 2500
2000 AEO 2011 Forecast 1500 2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
2014
2015
171210-01
EIA Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/
3
Where is Production Enhancement Going to Come From? Look at History Spindletop, Beaumont, Texas 10 January 1901 Initial Production 100,000 bbl/day Well Depth 1139 feet 1902
Primary Recovery Leaves 90% 95% of the Oil in the Ground
Conventional Oil Recovery Methods Secondary Recovery
Primary Recovery
Lithostatic Pressure
Pressure Maintenance
Solution Gas Drive Artificial Lift
Water Drive
Water Flood Gas Drive
Tertiary Recovery
Steam
Carbon Dioxide
Miscible Solvent
Surfactant
Tight Oil Recovery Methods Primary Recovery
Lithostatic Pressure
Solution Gas Drive Artificial Lift
Where is Production Enhancement Going to Come From? More Efficient Fracking Permeability Enhancement Tertiary Recovery
7
Ready-to-Use Measurement Technology
Rock Properties are Not Uniform Along Laterals
High Organic Matter
Low Organic Matter
Akkurt, 2014
Geometric Completions: 30-40% of Perforations are Unproductive Engineered Completions: 11-25% of Perforations are Unproductive Slocombe, SPE 166242
Lab-Tested Reservoir Treatments
Reeder, Craddock, Rylander, Pirie, Lewis, Kausik, Kleinberg, Yang, Pomerantz, Petrophysics, April 2016
9
Tertiary Recovery by Cyclic Gas Injection Many academic/theoretical publications & lab tests EOG field gas injection in Eagle Ford JPT Oct 2017 https://www.spe.org/en/jpt/jpt‐article‐detail/?art=3391
NGLs are Very Soluble in Crude Oil methane
carbon dioxide
ethane
propane
Martin, US 2,843,256 (1958); Marufuzzaman, Thesis, University of Regina (2010)
10
No Shortage of Natural Gas Liquids Co-Produced with Tight Oil Available for Reinjection
US Natural Gas Plant Liquids million barrels per day
7 6 natural gasoline isobutane normal butane
5 4
propane
3 2
ethane
1 0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2018 – Reference Case 11
Summary & Outlook We are producing from sweet spots using primary production, similar to the oil industry of 100 years ago Tight oil recovery factors are 5-10% There is a large technology upside, which might include o State of the art well construction o New reservoir contact paradigms o Some form of enhanced oil recovery
Robert L. Kleinberg, Ph.D. Schlumberger One Hampshire Street Cambridge, MA 02139 617-768-2277 [email protected] http://www.linkedin.com/pub/robert-kleinberg/19/177/131 Member of the National Academy of Engineering
Robert Kleinberg Schlumberger Cambridge, Massachusetts
CSIS 27 February 2018
Schlumberger Schlumberger is the actual provider of exploration, drilling, and production services to the oil and gas industry. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Schlumberger.
Dimmit County, Texas Greene County, Pennsylvania 2
US Crude Oil Production for Tight Oil Fields (millions barrels per year)
Supply Shock US Energy Information Administration 3500
3000 Actual 2500
2000 AEO 2011 Forecast 1500 2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
2014
2015
171210-01
EIA Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/
3
Where is Production Enhancement Going to Come From? Look at History Spindletop, Beaumont, Texas 10 January 1901 Initial Production 100,000 bbl/day Well Depth 1139 feet 1902
Primary Recovery Leaves 90% 95% of the Oil in the Ground
Conventional Oil Recovery Methods Secondary Recovery
Primary Recovery
Lithostatic Pressure
Pressure Maintenance
Solution Gas Drive Artificial Lift
Water Drive
Water Flood Gas Drive
Tertiary Recovery
Steam
Carbon Dioxide
Miscible Solvent
Surfactant
Tight Oil Recovery Methods Primary Recovery
Lithostatic Pressure
Solution Gas Drive Artificial Lift
Where is Production Enhancement Going to Come From? More Efficient Fracking Permeability Enhancement Tertiary Recovery
7
Ready-to-Use Measurement Technology
Rock Properties are Not Uniform Along Laterals
High Organic Matter
Low Organic Matter
Akkurt, 2014
Geometric Completions: 30-40% of Perforations are Unproductive Engineered Completions: 11-25% of Perforations are Unproductive Slocombe, SPE 166242
Lab-Tested Reservoir Treatments
Reeder, Craddock, Rylander, Pirie, Lewis, Kausik, Kleinberg, Yang, Pomerantz, Petrophysics, April 2016
9
Tertiary Recovery by Cyclic Gas Injection Many academic/theoretical publications & lab tests EOG field gas injection in Eagle Ford JPT Oct 2017 https://www.spe.org/en/jpt/jpt‐article‐detail/?art=3391
NGLs are Very Soluble in Crude Oil methane
carbon dioxide
ethane
propane
Martin, US 2,843,256 (1958); Marufuzzaman, Thesis, University of Regina (2010)
10
No Shortage of Natural Gas Liquids Co-Produced with Tight Oil Available for Reinjection
US Natural Gas Plant Liquids million barrels per day
7 6 natural gasoline isobutane normal butane
5 4
propane
3 2
ethane
1 0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2018 – Reference Case 11
Summary & Outlook We are producing from sweet spots using primary production, similar to the oil industry of 100 years ago Tight oil recovery factors are 5-10% There is a large technology upside, which might include o State of the art well construction o New reservoir contact paradigms o Some form of enhanced oil recovery
Robert L. Kleinberg, Ph.D. Schlumberger One Hampshire Street Cambridge, MA 02139 617-768-2277 [email protected] http://www.linkedin.com/pub/robert-kleinberg/19/177/131 Member of the National Academy of Engineering
