Yanbu Cement Co. - Aljazira Capital

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Yanbu Cement Co. Investment Update

July 2015

Please read Disclaimer on the back

Yanbu Cement: We remain ‘Overweight’, Q2-2015 results were in line with our expectation; Higher production efficiency reduces the cost of sales in the current quarter. Q2-2015 results were in line with our expectation: Q2-15 earnings came in line with our expectation and showed a deviation of 4.1% from

Recommendation

Overweight

Current Price* (SAR)

67.25

New Target Price (SAR)

79.40

Upside / (Downside)

18.1% *prices as of 06th of July 2015

our estimates and 4.7% from the market Consensus that was mainly due to higher production efficiency. Yanbu Cement Company posted net income of

Key Financials

SAR 246.0mn; indicating an increase of 2.1%YoY and 18.8%QoQ. YoY growth

SARmn (unless specified)

were mainly associated with i) lower cost of sales ii) lower zakat provision iii) higher volumetric sales growth, as sales is expected to be around 1.95 MT vs 1.78 MT in Q2-2014; however, the sales price per tone is expected to be around SAR235 vs the average price of SAR249 in FY2014. The gross profit stood at SAR 262.0mn depicting an increase of 10.1% YoY, and 16.96% QoQ, which we believe was attributed to the decline in cost per tonne. The higher production efficiency has been reflected on the margin and resulting lower

Revenues Growth % Net Income Growth % EPS

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

1,559.4 -3.8% 801.9 -2.4% 5.09

1,606.4 3.0% 799.3 -0.3% 5.08

1,646.9 2.5% 836.7 4.7% 5.31

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Key Ratios

cost per tonne at around SAR101 vs SAR111 in Q1-2015 and SAR117 in the

SARmn (unless specified)

FY14

FY15E

FY16E

same comparison period. Operating Profit for Q2-2015 stood at SAR 250.0mn

Gross Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin P/E P/B EV/EBITDA (x) ROE ROA Dividend Yield

54.7% 65.6% 51.4% 12.7x 2.86x 9.92

53.7% 63.7% 49.8% 13.2x 2.77x 10.03

54.7% 64.7% 50.8% 12.6x 2.63x 9.46

22.5%

21.0%

20.8%

18.9%

18.1%

18.6%

6.2%

6.0%

6.0%

depicting an increase of 9.2% YoY, and 17.9% QoQ; which we believe was due to stability in the operating expenses S & GA and improvement in revenue. We expect the company’s sales in 2015 to continue its growth trajectory, due to expected higher utilization rate of 98%, we expect cement dispatches to stand at 6.9MT, as compared to 6.3MT in 2014. Cement sales and price realization to improve in 2015: During January–

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

May 2015, Yanbu Cement’s sales rose 9.3% YoY to 3.26MT from 2.98MT in the prior-year period. During the same period, industry-wide cement inventory

Shareholders Pattern

increased just 1% to 934MT from 928MT in 2014, indicating improved

Shareholders Pattern

demand due to momentum in infrastructure development in KSA. In 1Q2015, Yanbu Cement experienced pricing pressure, with cement price realization declining to SAR 229 compared with SAR 250 in 1Q2014 (average of SAR 249 in 2014). Acute labor shortage in 2014 disrupted cement production, resulting in lower sales. To offset the impact, cement manufacturers

Type

General Organization for Social Insurance – GOSI Govermental Institution AlRajhi Ekhwan Group Institution Awqaf Suliman AlRajhi Individual Abdullah A. AlRajhi Govermental Public Investment Fund

Public

budget for development expenditure by KSA’s government for 2015, along with the housing ministry plans in the coming 3 years would provide the required impetus for infrastructure development, with overall increase in demand and better realizations. Waste heat recovery system to result in substantial savings from 2017: In March 2015, Yanbu Cement announced an agreement to construct a

12.37% 5.17% 7.35% 6.01% 10.0% 59.1%

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

responded with price-fixing, leading to stability in the average cement price realization in 2014 vs H1-2015. However, we believe an increase in allocated

Holding

Company Overview: Yanbu Cement was founded in 1976 and become the third largest cement producer in Saudi Arabia and the largest cement producer in the Western Province. The company further expanded its capacity by another 3 mtpa (10,000tpd) by commissioning the fifth line on April 2012 bringing its total capacity to 7 mtpa. Yanbu Cement Company is located in the Western region, where heavy demand is excerpted from the Makkah region, Madina region and the city of Jeddah. Along with the heavy investment in industrial cities of Yanbu and Rabigh that will keep cement demand strong.

34MW thermal power station that utilizes wasted thermal energy produced by the manufacturing process at a cost of SAR 232mn. The waste heat

Clinker Inventory - MT

recovery (WHR) system would become operational by January 2017 and

3.5 3

lead to substantial savings in fuel cost; moreover, this system would lower

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]

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Million Tone

the dependence on power generated from diesel power stations. Yanbu

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Clinker Inventory - MT Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Yanbu Cement Co. Investment Update

July 2015

Please read Disclaimer on the back

Cement’s management estimates that the WHR system will raise the efficiency of cement grinding by one million tonne of cement a year. The company would be able to realize the financial benefit from the implementation of WHR system from 1Q2017. Strong balance sheet to maintain attractive dividend payout: At the end of 1Q2015, Yanbu Cement’s debt-to-equity ratio stood at 0.9, with gross debt at around SAR 0.35bn. Nearly 50% of the total debt is from commercial banks, with repayment by the end of October 2015; the remaining 50% has been taken from SIDF, with repayment over a period of three years. In 2014, the management announced a total dividend of SAR 4 per share, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 6.0%. Going ahead, we believe strong balance sheet and sustainable cash flows would be sufficient to repay the existing debt, maintain a healthy dividend payout ratio, and manage future expansion plans. Strategic location and upcoming projects offer attractive opportunity: KSA’s western region is anticipated to be one of the largest and fastest growing markets for cement production and consumption. The region has emerged as a key destination for cement producers in the Kingdom due to rapid economic development. This has encouraged manufacturers, such as Yanbu Cement, to expand their capacity in the region. Several important cities, such as Makkah and Medina, are located in the western region of Saudi Arabia. The construction of commercial hotels and malls in Makkah, large government projects (including the Riyadh and Jeddah Metro), and expansion of the Grand Mosque in the town of Makkah are expected to propel the demand for cement in this region. Furthermore, we expect Yanbu Cement, with a large clinker inventory of 2.72MT, one of the largest in the sector, is well positioned to meet any increase in demand.

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RESEARCH DIVISION

AGM - Head of Research

Abdullah Alawi +966 11 2256250 [email protected]

Analyst

Sultan Al Kadi

+966 11 2256115 [email protected]

+966 11 2256374 [email protected]

General manager - brokerage services and sales

AGM-Head of international and institutional

AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC

Ala’a Al-Yousef

brokerage

Brokerage

+966 11 2256000 [email protected]

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa

Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani

+966 11 2256277 [email protected]

+966 12 6618400 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers

AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province

AGM - Head of Institutional Brokerage

Central Region

Abdullah Al-Rahit

Samer Al- Joauni

Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa

+966 16 3617547 [email protected]

+966 1 225 6352 [email protected]

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]

BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION RESEARCH DIVISION

Talha Nazar

Analyst

+966 11 2256364 [email protected]

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RATING TERMINOLOGY

Senior Analyst

2. 3. 4.

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