Alabama New Construction Report – May 2015 - Home Builders ...

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Alabama New Construction Report – May 2015 Monthly Indicators Permits May permits have decreased 2.4 percent from last month. Figures also show an increase of 4.7 percent from May '14.

Starts May starts have increased 0.4 percent from April '15. May '15 figures show an increase of 4.0 percent from May ’14.

Recent Figures

Trends

Current Month vs. Prior Month vs. Last Year (YoY) vs. 3-Yr Avg

May April May May

2015 2015 2014 '12-'14

779 798 744 755

-2.4% 4.7% 3.1%

Year-to-Date vs. Last Year (YoY)

May May

2015 2014

3,669 3,516

4.4%

Current Month vs. Prior Month vs. Last Year (YoY) vs. 3-Yr Avg

May April May May

2015 2015 2014 '12-'14

777 773 746 715

0.4% 4.0% 8.7%

Year to Date vs.Prior Year

May May

2015 2014

3,591 3,374

6.4%

* Alabama permits increased 4.7% compared to May 2014. In comparison, south region permits rose 6.9% & US permits were up 4.9%. * 2014 Recap: Permits in Alabama slipped .8% YOY from 2013. In comparison, south region permits were up 3.4% & US permits were up 1.3%. * Alabama housing starts improved 4.0% compared to May 2014. In concert, south region starts increased 5.6% while US starts improved 8.9%. * 2014 Recap: Starts in Alabama slipped 2% YOY from 2013. In comparison, South Region Starts were up 6% & US Starts up 2.9%.

Commentary State Demand: New home sales totaling 333 units in May increased 7.4 percent from the same period last year. May new homes sales were also up 9.5 percent from the prior month. Average days on market in May of 108 represent a 35.9% decrease from last May which is encouraging news. Supply: Months of new home supply in May was 5.1 months; compared to 5.9 months in April 2015 (favorably down 13.6%) and 5.2 months in May 2014 (down 1.9%). Statewide new construction inventory is approximately 5.7% above last May but down 5.8% from last month. According to the Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations, statewide related residential construction employment in May increased 1.2% (800 jobs) to 65,500 from the same period last year but is down .9% or 600 jobs from last month. This represents the eleventh consecutive month of positive YOY comparisons associated with construction employment. National Perspective from National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) From David Crowe, NAHB chief economist: “The Housing Market Index (HMI) indices measuring current and future sales expectations are at their highest levels since the last quarter of 2005, indicating a growing optimism among builders that housing will continue to strengthen in the months ahead. At the same time, builders remain sensitive to consumers' ability to buy a new home."

Local 9 out of the 27 associations (33% - down from 44% in April'15) reported building permit gains from the prior month while 15 associations (56% - down from 59% in April'15) experienced gains in housing starts. Sixteen associations (67% - up from 59% last month) experienced an increase from their May 2014 monthly housing starts. The top five YTD markets (with minimum of fifty starts) for housing starts through May by positive percentage change from the same period a year ago: Marshall County (21%), Lee County (27%), Greater Montgomery (21%), Dothan/Wiregrass Area (20%) and Baldwin County (18%),. Here's a look at YTD housing start growth rates from select markets from across the state: Birmingham (-7%), Huntsville (4%), Shoals Area (-4%), Tuscaloosa (-8%), Cullman (-1%) and Mobile (1%). © 2015 ACRE All Rights Reserved

NOTE: This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the reporting municipalities/boards/associations. ACRE does not guarantee and is in no way responsible for its accuracy.

©ACRE 2015

ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu

New Construction Report - May 2015 NEW SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMIT STATISTIC TOTALS Current Month

Last Month

May-15

April-15

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

May-14

% Difference

YTD

YTD

May-15

May-14

Alabama State Total South Total*

779

798

-2.4%

744

4.7%

3,669

3,516

4.4%

32,500

34,500

-5.8%

30,400

6.9%

152,600

139,100

9.7%

United States Total*

62,400

64,000

-2.5%

59,500

4.9%

269,800

250,800

7.6%

*Source Data: U.S. Census Bureau

NEW SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS BY AREA Association

Current Month

Last Month

May-15

April-15

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

May-14

YTD

YTD

May-15

May-14

% Difference

Athens/Limestone **

15

23

-34.8%

13

15.4%

72

64

12.5%

Baldwin County **

106

114

-7.0%

93

14.0%

553

471

17.4%

Blount County

0

0

N/A

0

N/A

0

0

N/A

Chilton County

4

1

300.0%

1

N/A

9

3

200.0%

Cullman County

3

8

-62.5%

1

200.0%

20

21

-4.8%

Dekalb County **

4

1

300.0%

2

100.0%

13

7

85.7%

Enterprise

2

5

-60.0%

4

-50.0%

25

29

-13.8%

122

131

-6.9%

178

-31.5%

639

748

-14.6%

Greater Calhoun County **

1

2

-50.0%

2

-50.0%

14

12

16.7%

Greater Gadsden **

9

6

50.0%

5

80.0%

29

26

11.5%

Greater Montgomery

35

37

-5.4%

34

2.9%

211

177

19.2%

Greater Morgan County **

22

29

-24.1%

21

4.8%

110

115

-4.3%

Dothan & Wiregrass Area

23

14

64.3%

19

21.1%

112

91

23.1%

Greater Birmingham **

Metropolitan Mobile**

44

42

4.8%

48

-8.3%

189

196

-3.6%

Tuscaloosa**

49

78

-37.2%

59

-16.9%

280

297

-5.7%

Huntsville/Madison **

158

171

-7.6%

139

13.7%

687

667

3.0%

1

2

-50.0%

1

0.0%

11

9

22.2% 27.2%

Jackson County ** Lee County

104

73

42.5%

65

60.0%

398

313

Macon County

0

0

N/A

0

N/A

1

0

N/A

Marshall County **

43

22

95.5%

5

760.0%

109

44

147.7%

Muscle Shoals **

14

16

-12.5%

17

-17.6%

64

67

-4.5%

Northwest Alabama

2

0

N/A

0

N/A

2

2

N/A

Phenix City

9

11

-18.2%

12

-25.0%

51

76

-32.9%

South Alabama

3

3

0.0%

2

50.0%

10

4

150.0%

St. Clair County **

4

5

-20.0%

21

-81.0%

50

66

-24.2%

Tallapoosa County

1

1

N/A

1

0.0%

4

9

-55.6%

Walker County

1

3

N/A

1

N/A

6

2

200.0%

**Source Partner: www.marketgraphicsalabama.com Process: Every month data is collected from municipalities all around the state, in particular the municipalities’ building/inspections department. We also limited our data collection to municipalities with a population of 2500 or greater. By gathering the number of single family new construction permits that are issued each month it allows observation of growth or decline in the new housing market. *NOTE: Permit counts may be subject to slight change month over month due to updated permit reports from certain municpalities in previous months

©ACRE 2015

ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu

PROJECTED HOUSING STARTS TOTALS Current Month

Last Month

May-15

April-15

Alabama State Total South Total United States Total

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

May-14

% Difference

YTD

YTD

May-15

May-14

777

773

0.4%

746

4.0%

3,591

3,374

6.4%

33,700

33,900

-0.6%

31,900

5.6%

149,800

141,600

5.8%

65,000

69,200

-6.1%

59,700

8.9%

271,700

241,353

12.6%

PROJECTED HOUSING STARTS BY LOCAL MARKETS Association

Current Month

Last Month

May-15

April-15

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

May-14

YTD

YTD

May-15

May-14

% Difference

Athens/Limestone

18

17

4.0%

15

16.2%

72

65

10.5%

Baldwin County

111

114

-3.2%

100

10.7%

563

476

18.4%

Blount County

0

0

N/A

0

N/A

0

0

N/A

Chilton County

2

1

115.6%

1

319.6%

7

3

134.5%

Cullman County

5

6

-14.8%

4

35.8%

20

20

-1.0%

Dekalb County

3

3

9.6%

2

37.5%

11

7

57.0% -14.2%

Enterprise Greater Birmingham Greater Calhoun County

4

6

-30.5%

4

-6.6%

26

31

128

136

-5.9%

162

-21.1%

637

688

-7.3%

2

2

4.1%

3

-21.8%

14

9

53.9%

Greater Gadsden

7

7

10.9%

5

41.8%

25

23

8.6%

Greater Montgomery

39

46

-16.5%

37

5.2%

211

174

21.2%

Greater Morgan County

24

23

7.7%

24

0.0%

109

104

4.3%

Dothan & Wiregrass Area

20

19

5.3%

19

6.1%

106

88

20.7%

Metropolitan Mobile

41

39

4.9%

48

-14.2%

196

193

1.2%

Tuscaloosa

60

68

-10.6%

59

2.0%

270

293

-7.6%

Huntsville/Madison

157

147

7.0%

136

15.8%

651

627

3.9%

Jackson County

2

2

-23.4%

2

12.5%

13

12

8.8%

Lee County

87

76

13.8%

65

34.4%

367

289

26.9%

Macon County

0

0

N/A

0

N/A

1

0

N/A

Marshall County

30

19

54.8%

12

154.2%

92

58

60.5%

Muscle Shoals

14

15

-6.6%

14

6.5%

62

64

-3.8%

Northwest Alabama

1

0

N/A

0

633.3%

3

2

10.8%

Phenix City

10

11

-7.2%

16

-36.4%

50

69

-26.3%

South Alabama

3

2

17.8%

1

97.8%

12

4

181.4%

St. Clair County

6

12

-48.7%

16

-61.6%

62

65

-4.7%

Tallapoosa County

1

1

14.5%

3

-66.0%

5

8

-38.9%

Walker County

2

1

22.5%

1

218.9%

5

2

126.9%

*Starts data not available due to that is it a calculated statistic from previous months data that is not available.

Some variance in totals due to decimal extension.

© 2015 ACRE All Rights Reserved NOTE : This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the local municipality's building department. Alabama Center for Real Estate - University of Alabama does not guarantee and is in no way responsible for its accuracy. Defintion: Housing starts are a derived value using a percentage distribution based on the particular region in the United States multiplied times the number of building permits issued in that particular month. Calculation: The distribution for the South Region is as follows: Same Month as Authorization = 44%; 1 Month Prior = 37%; 2 Months Prior = 9%; 3 Months Prior = 3%; 4 Months or more = 7%

©ACRE 2015

ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu

Metro Market New Construction Report* (The 5 Metro Alabama Markets Represent

+/- 70%

of the State's New Construction Transactions)

Metro Markets Combined

Total New Construction Sold Number of Units on Market Median Selling Price Average Selling Price Average Days on Market

Current Month

Last Month

May-15

April-15

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

May-14

YTD May-14

333

304

9.5%

310

7.4%

1,688

1,791

-5.8%

1,597

5.7%

2.2%

$

228,927

6.9%

$

242,519

$

241,840

10.6%

$

260,438

168

-35.9%

$

244,742

$

239,426

$

267,362

$

244,992

9.1%

116

-7.3%

108

% Difference

YTD May-15

1,423

1,460

-2.5%

$

230,265

5.3%

$

247,004

N/A

N/A

136

N/A

163

5.4% -16.2%

Total New Construction Sold

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

Last Month

May-15

April-15

132

125

5.6%

124

6.5%

571

554

3.1%

101

100

1.0%

89

13.5%

440

485

-9.3%

29

27

7.4%

32

-9.4%

126

134

-6.0%

54

39

38.5%

46

17.4%

199

206

-3.4%

17

13

30.8%

19

-10.5%

87

81

7.4%

Current Month

Last Month

May-15

April-15

790

803

-1.6%

667

18.4%

6.0

393

457

-14.0%

402

-2.2%

3.9

136

145

-6.2%

150

-9.3%

4.7

218

221

-1.4%

233

-6.4%

4.0

151

165

-8.5%

145

4.1%

8.9

Current Month

Last Month

May-15

April-15

May-14

YTD

YTD

May-15

May-14

% Difference

Current Month

Number of Units on Market

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

I/S

May-14

Ratio

Median Selling Price

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

May-14

YTD

YTD

May-15

May-14

% Difference

$

260,650

$

280,900

-7.2%

$

266,750

-2.3%

$

267,923

$

257,403

4.1%

$

241,000

$

242,383

-0.6%

$

240,000

0.4%

$

241,826

$

242,528

-0.3%

$

216,060

$

176,061

22.7%

$

192,250

12.4%

$

216,135

$

184,980

16.8%

$

268,000

$

256,385

4.5%

$

251,736

6.5%

$

253,360

$

244,087

3.8%

$

238,000

$

241,400

-1.4%

$

193,900

22.7%

$

233,350

$

222,324

5.0%

Average Selling Price

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

Current Month

Last Month

May-15

April-15

% Difference

Last Year

% Difference

May-14

YTD

YTD

May-15

May-14

% Difference

$

293,016

$

322,565

-9.2%

$

299,675

-2.2%

$

305,502

$

285,976

6.8%

$

273,658

$

255,403

7.1%

$

260,861

4.9%

$

262,101

$

256,617

2.1%

$

214,114

$

188,378

13.7%

$

193,825

10.5%

$

220,303

$

202,208

8.9%

$

264,323

$

239,104

10.5%

$

246,592

7.2%

$

257,800

$

245,062

5.2%

$

291,701

$

219,512

32.9%

$

208,245

40.1%

$

256,481

$

245,155

4.6%

Average Days on Market

Birmingham Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

% Difference

Current Month

Last Month

May-15

April-15

Last Year

Unavailable

Unavailable

N/A

Unavailable

52

81

-35.8%

179

121

166

-27.1%

200

141

122

15.6%

131

116

95

22.1%

161

* Source: MLS

©ACRE 2015

% Difference

ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu

% Difference

YTD

YTD

May-15

May-14

N/A

Unavailable

Unavailable

N/A

-70.9%

81

137

-40.7%

-39.5%

164

218

-25.0%

7.6%

146

143

2.1%

-28.0%

154

153

1.0%

May-14

3,000

450

2,800

400

2,600

350

2,400

300

2,200

250

2,000

200

1,800

150

1,600

100

1,400

50

1,200

0

1,000

Total Sold

Inventory

Sales

Alabama New Construction Statistics 500

Inventory

Alabama New Single Family Building Permits Issued 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300

Year-Over-Year Change for Building Permits May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% Alabama

©ACRE 2015

U.S.

ACRE Corporate Cabinet acre.culverhouse.ua.edu

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