TPC Power Holding - Global Alliance Partners
TPC Power Holding Underperform (16E TP Bt17.20)
Company Update
Close Bt17.20
Mai ‐ Resources March 30, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Mix of good news and bad news…but outlook remains weak Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.596
1.182
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐31.2%
‐17.1%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TPCH.BK/TPCH TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
401.20
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
7.00/195.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.00
52 week High / Low (Bt)
23.00/13.60
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
1,572.00
NVDR (%)
1.92
Estimated free float (%)
31.23
Beta
1.56
URL
www.tpcpower.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 3B (Established)
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076 [email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6289
NP revised down as projects delayed…Underperform maintained Once again, most projects will be postponed by another three months to reflect the actual schedule of construction, leading us to revise down 16E and 17E NP by 5% and 26%. Our 16E TP decreases 6% from Bt18.80 to Bt17.20/share, providing no upside. Together with the weak outlook, we maintain an Underperform rating. However, there are two catalysts that will have a positive impact: 1) the change of the selling price of the first power plant to FiT and 2) winning the FiT bidding that is soon to take place. Projects in pipeline postponed by 1‐2 quarters COD of the third power plant will be postponed from Q1 to Q2, as informed by the management. This is due to a technical problem in equipment, leading to more time to actually start the COD. Another four projects in the pipeline will also be delayed by 1‐2 quarters, as guided by the management. Accordingly, we adjust COD of these project and revise down NP in 16E and 17E to Bt165mn and Bt395mn, ‐5% and ‐26%. CRB is expected to benefit from the windfall from FiT system Biomass power plant operators who are in the Adder system have asked the regulator to also give them the selling price of FiT, which is about 30% higher than their selling price (Bt4.50/kWh vs. Bt3.30/kWh). They reason that the implementation of FiT gives new operators an advantage in buying feedstock. If such a request is granted, it will have a positive impact to the 16E and 17E bottom lines by 11% and 7% and add about Bt0.90 to our new TP. Result of the first FiT bidding to tell about the future The first round of biomass FiT bidding of 36MW will begin on the 2nd of May and the winner will be announced in Aug’16. We believe that many operators, old and new, are eyeing this stake and the result will determine the fierceness of the competition. With a small quota and high demand, we expect the IRR of these projects to come down to 15% at most, compared to 20% of no‐bidding PPA. TPCH is aiming to apply for all 36MW to increase its chance of getting the quota. Nevertheless, over the next two years, we still do not think there will be more quotas granted for bidding. New TP at Bt17.20 In light of the above along with the postponing of projects’ COD, we decrease LT electricity price escalation from 3% to 1.5% as energy prices remain low. The new TP (Bt17.20 from Bt18.80) gives no upside and we thus maintain an Underperform rating. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 258 29 0.09 80.0% 0.00 4.87 2014 191.1 69.95 3.53 0.0% 2.5% ‐24%
2015 305 47 0.12 29.2% 0.01 5.33 2015 147.9 61.19 3.23 0.1% 2.7% 11%
2016E 633 165 0.41 253.3% 0.08 5.82 2016E 41.87 21.06 2.96 0.5% 9.0% 110%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2017E 1,292 395 0.98 139.6% 0.30 6.54 2017E 17.48 9.37 2.63 1.7% 19.9% 136%
2018E 2,431 702 1.75 77.7% 0.70 7.59 2018E 9.83 5.22 2.27 4.1% 31.7% 101%
Figure 1: TPCH’s projects in the pipeline
COD of PTG phase 2 Capacity 23MW
MW 120
COD of PGP Total capacity 20MW
100 COD of MGP Capacity 9.9MW
80 60
COD of SGP Total capacity 20MW
COD of TSG Capacity 9.9MW
COD of PTG phase 1 Capacity 23MW
60
60
60
27
33
38
38
38
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
106 83
50
COD of MWE Capacity 9.9MW
40
40
40
30 20
20
20
10
10
10
0
7
7
7
16
16
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
20
27
2Q16
3Q16
Equity MW
Source: TPCH, KT ZMICO Research Figure 2: TPCH’s installed capacity plan
Consolidated
53
1Q18
68
2Q18
Source: TPCH REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Gain (loss) from affiliates Extra Items Non‐controlling Net profit Reported EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Investment PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Accounts payable Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Non‐cash adjustment Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 180 (117) 64 (41) 44 (22) 23 (23) 16 16 (0) 0 0 (6) 10 0.05 10 0.05 0.00
2014 258 (146) 112 (42) 97 (27) 69 (28) 4 45 7 (2) 0 (21) 29 0.09 29 0.09 0.00
2015 305 (181) 124 (47) 110 (34) 76 (27) 18 67 4 (2) 0 (22) 47 0.12 47 0.12 0.01
2016E 633 (330) 303 (62) 321 (80) 241 (68) 0 173 0 37 0 (45) 165 0.41 165 0.41 0.08
2013 279 14 0 0 718 172 1,183 74 20 413 525 311 658 1,183
2014 1,365 45 0 58 1,256 241 2,966 174 24 730 1,019 400 1,948 2,966
2015 754 95 0 107 1,847 491 3,294 137 43 859 1,157 401 2,137 3,294
2016E 591 104 0 144 4,634 172 5,644 162 42 2,987 3,310 401 2,334 5,644
2013 24 16 22 (26) 36 (131) (6) (136) 48 381 0 (60) 369 268 (100) (0.36)
2014 50 5 27 (0) 82 (844) (46) (891) 526 1,140 0 197 1,864 1,055 (809) (2.60)
2015 68 2 34 (91) 14 (730) (615) (1,345) 89 4 0 66 159 (1,172) (1,331) (3.32)
2016E 210 (37) 80 310 562 (2,867) 0 (2,867) 2,153 0 (33) 20 2,141 (164) (2,305) (5.74)
2013 0.0% 14137%
2014 43.3% 118.5% 80.0% 43.3% 37.4% 26.9% 11.1% 11.1% ‐14.7%
2015 18.1% 14.3% 29.2% 40.5% 36.2% 25.0% 15.3% 15.3% ‐6.0%
2016E 107.5% 190.6% 253.3% 47.9% 50.7% 38.1% 26.1% 26.1% 0.0%
2017E 1,292 (619) 674 (71) 721 (118) 603 (96) 0 507 0 65 0 (176) 395 0.98 395 0.98 0.30
2017E 285 212 0 188 5,816 172 6,674 329 84 3,519 4,050 401 2,623 6,674
2018E 396 400 0 209 5,621 172 6,797 542 174 2,919 3,753 401 3,044 6,797
2017E 571 (65) 118 (67) 558 (1,300) 20 (1,280) 699 0 (106) (176) 417 (305) (722) (1.80)
35.2% 24.5% 12.6% 5.4% 5.4% 1.7%
2018E 2,431 (1,254) 1,177 (77) 1,294 (195) 1,099 (149) 0 950 0 59 0 (307) 702 1.75 702 1.75 0.70
2018E 1,009 (59) 195 (97) 1,048 0 38 38 (387) 0 (281) (307) (976) 111 1,086 2.71
2017E 104.3% 124.8% 139.6% 52.1% 55.8% 46.7% 30.6% 30.6% 0.0%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
2018E 88.1% 79.5% 77.7% 48.4% 53.2% 45.2% 28.9% 28.9% 0.0%
Note: The major shareholders of KT ZMICO are KTB and ZMICO. Customers, please keep this in mind before investing in KTB and ZMICO securities. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt17.20
Mai ‐ Resources March 30, 2015
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Mix of good news and bad news…but outlook remains weak Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.596
1.182
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐31.2%
‐17.1%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TPCH.BK/TPCH TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
401.20
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
7.00/195.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.00
52 week High / Low (Bt)
23.00/13.60
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
1,572.00
NVDR (%)
1.92
Estimated free float (%)
31.23
Beta
1.56
URL
www.tpcpower.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 3B (Established)
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076 [email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6289
NP revised down as projects delayed…Underperform maintained Once again, most projects will be postponed by another three months to reflect the actual schedule of construction, leading us to revise down 16E and 17E NP by 5% and 26%. Our 16E TP decreases 6% from Bt18.80 to Bt17.20/share, providing no upside. Together with the weak outlook, we maintain an Underperform rating. However, there are two catalysts that will have a positive impact: 1) the change of the selling price of the first power plant to FiT and 2) winning the FiT bidding that is soon to take place. Projects in pipeline postponed by 1‐2 quarters COD of the third power plant will be postponed from Q1 to Q2, as informed by the management. This is due to a technical problem in equipment, leading to more time to actually start the COD. Another four projects in the pipeline will also be delayed by 1‐2 quarters, as guided by the management. Accordingly, we adjust COD of these project and revise down NP in 16E and 17E to Bt165mn and Bt395mn, ‐5% and ‐26%. CRB is expected to benefit from the windfall from FiT system Biomass power plant operators who are in the Adder system have asked the regulator to also give them the selling price of FiT, which is about 30% higher than their selling price (Bt4.50/kWh vs. Bt3.30/kWh). They reason that the implementation of FiT gives new operators an advantage in buying feedstock. If such a request is granted, it will have a positive impact to the 16E and 17E bottom lines by 11% and 7% and add about Bt0.90 to our new TP. Result of the first FiT bidding to tell about the future The first round of biomass FiT bidding of 36MW will begin on the 2nd of May and the winner will be announced in Aug’16. We believe that many operators, old and new, are eyeing this stake and the result will determine the fierceness of the competition. With a small quota and high demand, we expect the IRR of these projects to come down to 15% at most, compared to 20% of no‐bidding PPA. TPCH is aiming to apply for all 36MW to increase its chance of getting the quota. Nevertheless, over the next two years, we still do not think there will be more quotas granted for bidding. New TP at Bt17.20 In light of the above along with the postponing of projects’ COD, we decrease LT electricity price escalation from 3% to 1.5% as energy prices remain low. The new TP (Bt17.20 from Bt18.80) gives no upside and we thus maintain an Underperform rating. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 258 29 0.09 80.0% 0.00 4.87 2014 191.1 69.95 3.53 0.0% 2.5% ‐24%
2015 305 47 0.12 29.2% 0.01 5.33 2015 147.9 61.19 3.23 0.1% 2.7% 11%
2016E 633 165 0.41 253.3% 0.08 5.82 2016E 41.87 21.06 2.96 0.5% 9.0% 110%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2017E 1,292 395 0.98 139.6% 0.30 6.54 2017E 17.48 9.37 2.63 1.7% 19.9% 136%
2018E 2,431 702 1.75 77.7% 0.70 7.59 2018E 9.83 5.22 2.27 4.1% 31.7% 101%
Figure 1: TPCH’s projects in the pipeline
COD of PTG phase 2 Capacity 23MW
MW 120
COD of PGP Total capacity 20MW
100 COD of MGP Capacity 9.9MW
80 60
COD of SGP Total capacity 20MW
COD of TSG Capacity 9.9MW
COD of PTG phase 1 Capacity 23MW
60
60
60
27
33
38
38
38
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
106 83
50
COD of MWE Capacity 9.9MW
40
40
40
30 20
20
20
10
10
10
0
7
7
7
16
16
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
20
27
2Q16
3Q16
Equity MW
Source: TPCH, KT ZMICO Research Figure 2: TPCH’s installed capacity plan
Consolidated
53
1Q18
68
2Q18
Source: TPCH REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Gain (loss) from affiliates Extra Items Non‐controlling Net profit Reported EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Investment PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Accounts payable Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Non‐cash adjustment Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 180 (117) 64 (41) 44 (22) 23 (23) 16 16 (0) 0 0 (6) 10 0.05 10 0.05 0.00
2014 258 (146) 112 (42) 97 (27) 69 (28) 4 45 7 (2) 0 (21) 29 0.09 29 0.09 0.00
2015 305 (181) 124 (47) 110 (34) 76 (27) 18 67 4 (2) 0 (22) 47 0.12 47 0.12 0.01
2016E 633 (330) 303 (62) 321 (80) 241 (68) 0 173 0 37 0 (45) 165 0.41 165 0.41 0.08
2013 279 14 0 0 718 172 1,183 74 20 413 525 311 658 1,183
2014 1,365 45 0 58 1,256 241 2,966 174 24 730 1,019 400 1,948 2,966
2015 754 95 0 107 1,847 491 3,294 137 43 859 1,157 401 2,137 3,294
2016E 591 104 0 144 4,634 172 5,644 162 42 2,987 3,310 401 2,334 5,644
2013 24 16 22 (26) 36 (131) (6) (136) 48 381 0 (60) 369 268 (100) (0.36)
2014 50 5 27 (0) 82 (844) (46) (891) 526 1,140 0 197 1,864 1,055 (809) (2.60)
2015 68 2 34 (91) 14 (730) (615) (1,345) 89 4 0 66 159 (1,172) (1,331) (3.32)
2016E 210 (37) 80 310 562 (2,867) 0 (2,867) 2,153 0 (33) 20 2,141 (164) (2,305) (5.74)
2013 0.0% 14137%
2014 43.3% 118.5% 80.0% 43.3% 37.4% 26.9% 11.1% 11.1% ‐14.7%
2015 18.1% 14.3% 29.2% 40.5% 36.2% 25.0% 15.3% 15.3% ‐6.0%
2016E 107.5% 190.6% 253.3% 47.9% 50.7% 38.1% 26.1% 26.1% 0.0%
2017E 1,292 (619) 674 (71) 721 (118) 603 (96) 0 507 0 65 0 (176) 395 0.98 395 0.98 0.30
2017E 285 212 0 188 5,816 172 6,674 329 84 3,519 4,050 401 2,623 6,674
2018E 396 400 0 209 5,621 172 6,797 542 174 2,919 3,753 401 3,044 6,797
2017E 571 (65) 118 (67) 558 (1,300) 20 (1,280) 699 0 (106) (176) 417 (305) (722) (1.80)
35.2% 24.5% 12.6% 5.4% 5.4% 1.7%
2018E 2,431 (1,254) 1,177 (77) 1,294 (195) 1,099 (149) 0 950 0 59 0 (307) 702 1.75 702 1.75 0.70
2018E 1,009 (59) 195 (97) 1,048 0 38 38 (387) 0 (281) (307) (976) 111 1,086 2.71
2017E 104.3% 124.8% 139.6% 52.1% 55.8% 46.7% 30.6% 30.6% 0.0%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
2018E 88.1% 79.5% 77.7% 48.4% 53.2% 45.2% 28.9% 28.9% 0.0%
Note: The major shareholders of KT ZMICO are KTB and ZMICO. Customers, please keep this in mind before investing in KTB and ZMICO securities. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
