construction industry survey AWS
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 7 • July 2017
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Less pessimistic expectations The construction industry is still operating below usual levels and showing high idle capacity rates. The current conditions indices continue to show a decline in activity and employment in July, albeit at a lower pace than last month. ‘
The indicator of expected activity levels is already indicating that activity will hold steady over the coming months, as it reached the 50-point mark. The other expectations indices are close to the dividing line between an expected decline and increase.
The indices measuring business expectations have once again moved into optimistic territory.
Expectations indices* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
AUG 2016
49.8 48.4 48.4 48.2
SEP
OCT
Activity level Number of employees
NOV
DEC
JAN
MAR
New developments and services Dividing line
*The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
ABR
MAY
JUN
JUL
Purchases of raw materials
AUG
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 7 • July 2017
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN JULY 2017
Activity and jobs fall at slower pace in July The activity level indicator rose by 1.5 points, up from 42.8 points in June to 44.3 points in July. The indicator of number of employees grew by 0.8 points during the same period, up from 41.8 to 42.6
points. Readings below 50 points indicate a monthover-month decline in activity and employment. The further below 50 points, the more significant and widespread the decline.
Activity levels* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)*
Increase
50
Decrease
44.5 43.3
42.3 41.8 41.5 40.0
44.3
44.1 42.8
40.3 39.3
39.3 37.9
JUL 2016
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN 2017
Activity level
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
Dividing line
*The index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate an increase in activity levels.
Construction industry still operating below usual levels The construction industry continues to experience high idle capacity rates. The indicator measuring actual-usual activity levels rose grew from 29.6 points in June to 30.4 points in July. Readings below 50 points indicate that activity is below usual levels for the month.
2
The operating capacity utilization rate grew by one percentage point in July on a month-overmonth basis, reaching 56%. The figure, however, is down by 8 percentage points from the historical average for the month.
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 7 • July 2017
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN AUGUST 2017
Expectations improve in August The expectations indicators show a decline in business pessimism in August. The indicator of expected activity remained virtually on the 50-point dividing line at 49.8 points, suggesting that activity levels are expected to remain at current levels in the coming months. The indicators measuring expected new developments
and services and purchases of inputs and raw materials grew by 0.8 and 0.9 points respectively, with both reaching 48.4 points. The indicator of expected number of employees rose from 47.8 points in July to 48.2 points in August. The indices vary in the 0-100 interval, with readings below 50 indicating an expected decline.
Expectations indices* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Activity levels
New developments and services
Increase
Increase
49.8
50
50
48.4 46.1
Decrease 44.8
Decrease
OCT
AUG 2016
DEC
FEB 2017
Activity level
APR
JUN
AUG
OCT
AUG 2016
Dividing line
DEC
FEB 2017
APR
New developments and services
Purchases of raw materials
Number of employees
Increase
Increase
JUN Dividing line
50
50
48.4 Decrease
AUG
48.2
44.3
AUG 2016
Decrease 43.5
OCT
DEC
FEB 2017
Purchases of raw materials
APR
JUN
AUG
AUG 2016
Dividing line
OCT
DEC
FEB 2017
Number of employees
*The indices vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected growth.
3
APR
JUN
Dividing line
AUG
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 7 • July 2017
August sees increase in business confidence The index measuring business confidence in the construction industry hit the mark of 50.3 points in August, representing a 1.9-point month-overmonth increase. As it is standing on the 50-point mark, the index does not suggest confidence or lack of confidence among entrepreneurs. The increase in August is explained both by the current conditions indicator and by the expectations indicator, which
grew each by 2 points between July and August. The indicator measuring current conditions, however, is still showing worsening business conditions, as it remains below the dividing line at 43.1 points. On the other hand, the expectations indicators – particularly those related to one’s own company – point to positive business prospects, as they exceeded the 50-point mark.
Construction Business Confidence Index (ICEI - Construction)* Diffusion index (0-100 points)
Confidence
50.3 50
Lack of confidence
AUG 2016
OCT
DEC
FEB 2017
ICEI - Construction
APR
JUN
AUG
Dividing line
*The ICEI varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate business confidence.
Entrepreneurs are more likely to invest The investment intentions index amounted to 29.1 points in August, up by 2.4 points from the previous month and by 2.3 points from the same month in 2016. Despite the increase, the index remains at
a very low level. The index ranges from 0 to 100 points and the higher the index, the more likely entrepreneurs are to invest.
Investment intentions Index** Diffusion index (0-100 points)
30
29.1 28
26.6 26 24 22
AUG 2015
DEC
APR 2016
AUG
DEC
**The index varies in the 0-100 interval. * The higher the index, the higher the willingness to invest.
4
APR 2017
AUG
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 7 • July 2017
Results by company size Construction industry performance Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
Jul/16
Jun/17
Jul/17
Jul/16
Jun/17
Jul/17
Jul/16
Jun/17
Jul/17
Jul/16
Jun/17
Jul/17
57
55
56
42,3
42,8
44,3
28,8
29,6
30,4
39,7
41,8
42,6
SMALL
54
53
53
43.2
44.8
46.3
32.9
35.2
35.2
40.7
43.5
44.1
MEDIUM
56
56
57
44.4
44.0
45.2
29.5
31.6
31.8
41.3
42.0
42.0
LARGE
58
55
57
40.8
41.4
43.0
26.9
26.4
27.8
38.4
41.1
42.4
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations for the construction industry New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
Aug/16
Jul/17
Aug/17
Aug/16
Jul/17
Aug/17
Aug/16
Jul/17
Aug/17
Aug/16
Jul/17
Aug/17
Aug/16
jul/17
Aug/17
46.1
48.6
49.8
44.8
47.6
48.4
44.3
47.5
48.4
43.5
47.8
48.2
26.8
26.7
29.1
SMALL
48.1
49.4
51.7
45.9
48.2
50.3
46.6
48.5
51.1
46.4
46.9
48.4
25.4
30.0
32.9
MEDIUM
47.0
48.9
50.0
45.1
46.1
47.9
46.1
46.7
47.8
44.8
46.9
48.0
27.9
27.7
27.9
LARGE
44.9
48.1
49.0
44.2
48.3
47.9
42.4
47.5
47.7
41.7
48.7
48.2
26.7
25.0
28.4
CONSTRUCTION
Construction business confidence index and its components ICEI - Construction6
Current conditions7
Expectations8
Aug/16
Jul/17
Aug/17
Aug/16
Jul/17
Aug/17
Aug/16
Jul/17
Aug/17
49.6
48.4
50.3
38.6
41.1
43.1
55.2
52.0
54.0
SMALL
50.3
47.2
50.1
38.6
38.3
41.7
56.1
51.6
54.6
MEDIUM
50.1
48.5
50.5
40.5
41.3
42.9
55.1
52.1
54.2
LARGE
49.1
48.7
50.3
37.6
42.1
43.8
54.9
52.0
53.6
CONSTRUCTION
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series starded in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higher-than-usual activity levels. 4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the greater the willingness to invest. 6 The ICEI-Construction varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate business confidence. 7 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation as compared to the last six months. 8 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations for the next six months.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 624 enterprises, including 209 small, 289 medium and 126 large companies. Data collection period: August, 1-10, 2017.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondconstr
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Indústria da Construção - July 2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www. cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Flavia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz, Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Less pessimistic expectations The construction industry is still operating below usual levels and showing high idle capacity rates. The current conditions indices continue to show a decline in activity and employment in July, albeit at a lower pace than last month. ‘
The indicator of expected activity levels is already indicating that activity will hold steady over the coming months, as it reached the 50-point mark. The other expectations indices are close to the dividing line between an expected decline and increase.
The indices measuring business expectations have once again moved into optimistic territory.
Expectations indices* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
AUG 2016
49.8 48.4 48.4 48.2
SEP
OCT
Activity level Number of employees
NOV
DEC
JAN
MAR
New developments and services Dividing line
*The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
ABR
MAY
JUN
JUL
Purchases of raw materials
AUG
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 7 • July 2017
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN JULY 2017
Activity and jobs fall at slower pace in July The activity level indicator rose by 1.5 points, up from 42.8 points in June to 44.3 points in July. The indicator of number of employees grew by 0.8 points during the same period, up from 41.8 to 42.6
points. Readings below 50 points indicate a monthover-month decline in activity and employment. The further below 50 points, the more significant and widespread the decline.
Activity levels* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)*
Increase
50
Decrease
44.5 43.3
42.3 41.8 41.5 40.0
44.3
44.1 42.8
40.3 39.3
39.3 37.9
JUL 2016
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN 2017
Activity level
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
Dividing line
*The index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate an increase in activity levels.
Construction industry still operating below usual levels The construction industry continues to experience high idle capacity rates. The indicator measuring actual-usual activity levels rose grew from 29.6 points in June to 30.4 points in July. Readings below 50 points indicate that activity is below usual levels for the month.
2
The operating capacity utilization rate grew by one percentage point in July on a month-overmonth basis, reaching 56%. The figure, however, is down by 8 percentage points from the historical average for the month.
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 7 • July 2017
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN AUGUST 2017
Expectations improve in August The expectations indicators show a decline in business pessimism in August. The indicator of expected activity remained virtually on the 50-point dividing line at 49.8 points, suggesting that activity levels are expected to remain at current levels in the coming months. The indicators measuring expected new developments
and services and purchases of inputs and raw materials grew by 0.8 and 0.9 points respectively, with both reaching 48.4 points. The indicator of expected number of employees rose from 47.8 points in July to 48.2 points in August. The indices vary in the 0-100 interval, with readings below 50 indicating an expected decline.
Expectations indices* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Activity levels
New developments and services
Increase
Increase
49.8
50
50
48.4 46.1
Decrease 44.8
Decrease
OCT
AUG 2016
DEC
FEB 2017
Activity level
APR
JUN
AUG
OCT
AUG 2016
Dividing line
DEC
FEB 2017
APR
New developments and services
Purchases of raw materials
Number of employees
Increase
Increase
JUN Dividing line
50
50
48.4 Decrease
AUG
48.2
44.3
AUG 2016
Decrease 43.5
OCT
DEC
FEB 2017
Purchases of raw materials
APR
JUN
AUG
AUG 2016
Dividing line
OCT
DEC
FEB 2017
Number of employees
*The indices vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected growth.
3
APR
JUN
Dividing line
AUG
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 7 • July 2017
August sees increase in business confidence The index measuring business confidence in the construction industry hit the mark of 50.3 points in August, representing a 1.9-point month-overmonth increase. As it is standing on the 50-point mark, the index does not suggest confidence or lack of confidence among entrepreneurs. The increase in August is explained both by the current conditions indicator and by the expectations indicator, which
grew each by 2 points between July and August. The indicator measuring current conditions, however, is still showing worsening business conditions, as it remains below the dividing line at 43.1 points. On the other hand, the expectations indicators – particularly those related to one’s own company – point to positive business prospects, as they exceeded the 50-point mark.
Construction Business Confidence Index (ICEI - Construction)* Diffusion index (0-100 points)
Confidence
50.3 50
Lack of confidence
AUG 2016
OCT
DEC
FEB 2017
ICEI - Construction
APR
JUN
AUG
Dividing line
*The ICEI varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate business confidence.
Entrepreneurs are more likely to invest The investment intentions index amounted to 29.1 points in August, up by 2.4 points from the previous month and by 2.3 points from the same month in 2016. Despite the increase, the index remains at
a very low level. The index ranges from 0 to 100 points and the higher the index, the more likely entrepreneurs are to invest.
Investment intentions Index** Diffusion index (0-100 points)
30
29.1 28
26.6 26 24 22
AUG 2015
DEC
APR 2016
AUG
DEC
**The index varies in the 0-100 interval. * The higher the index, the higher the willingness to invest.
4
APR 2017
AUG
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 7 • July 2017
Results by company size Construction industry performance Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
Jul/16
Jun/17
Jul/17
Jul/16
Jun/17
Jul/17
Jul/16
Jun/17
Jul/17
Jul/16
Jun/17
Jul/17
57
55
56
42,3
42,8
44,3
28,8
29,6
30,4
39,7
41,8
42,6
SMALL
54
53
53
43.2
44.8
46.3
32.9
35.2
35.2
40.7
43.5
44.1
MEDIUM
56
56
57
44.4
44.0
45.2
29.5
31.6
31.8
41.3
42.0
42.0
LARGE
58
55
57
40.8
41.4
43.0
26.9
26.4
27.8
38.4
41.1
42.4
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations for the construction industry New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
Aug/16
Jul/17
Aug/17
Aug/16
Jul/17
Aug/17
Aug/16
Jul/17
Aug/17
Aug/16
Jul/17
Aug/17
Aug/16
jul/17
Aug/17
46.1
48.6
49.8
44.8
47.6
48.4
44.3
47.5
48.4
43.5
47.8
48.2
26.8
26.7
29.1
SMALL
48.1
49.4
51.7
45.9
48.2
50.3
46.6
48.5
51.1
46.4
46.9
48.4
25.4
30.0
32.9
MEDIUM
47.0
48.9
50.0
45.1
46.1
47.9
46.1
46.7
47.8
44.8
46.9
48.0
27.9
27.7
27.9
LARGE
44.9
48.1
49.0
44.2
48.3
47.9
42.4
47.5
47.7
41.7
48.7
48.2
26.7
25.0
28.4
CONSTRUCTION
Construction business confidence index and its components ICEI - Construction6
Current conditions7
Expectations8
Aug/16
Jul/17
Aug/17
Aug/16
Jul/17
Aug/17
Aug/16
Jul/17
Aug/17
49.6
48.4
50.3
38.6
41.1
43.1
55.2
52.0
54.0
SMALL
50.3
47.2
50.1
38.6
38.3
41.7
56.1
51.6
54.6
MEDIUM
50.1
48.5
50.5
40.5
41.3
42.9
55.1
52.1
54.2
LARGE
49.1
48.7
50.3
37.6
42.1
43.8
54.9
52.0
53.6
CONSTRUCTION
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series starded in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higher-than-usual activity levels. 4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the greater the willingness to invest. 6 The ICEI-Construction varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate business confidence. 7 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation as compared to the last six months. 8 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations for the next six months.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 624 enterprises, including 209 small, 289 medium and 126 large companies. Data collection period: August, 1-10, 2017.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondconstr
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Indústria da Construção - July 2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www. cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Flavia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz, Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
