construction industry survey AWS
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 1 • January 2018
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Construction industry reduces spare capacity The construction industry operated at 60% of its capacity in January, a figure not observed since July 2015. The operating capacity utilization rate has been trending upward since March 2017, pointing to a decline in spare capacity in the construction industry. In addition, the indicators measuring activity levels and number of employees fell at a slower pace in the first month of 2018.
The expectation indicators, which had been improving, experienced a fall in February. Despite the decline, the indices remain above the 50-point dividing line, suggesting that the construction industry is expected to increase over the next six months.
Operating capacity utilization Percentage (%)
62 60.0
60.0 60
59.0
58 58.0 56 54 53.0 52 50
JAN 2015
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN 2016
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN 2017
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN 2018
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 1 • January 2018
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN JANUARY 2018
Activity and employment fall at lower rate The indicators of activity levels and number of employees reached respectively 45.6 and 43.9 points in January, up by 0.7 and 0.9 points as compared to December. Compared with January
2017, the indicators grew respectively by 6.3 and 5.5 points, indicating that activity levels and employee numbers declined at a slower pace on both a yearover-year and month-over-month basis.
Activity level index Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
Increase 50 Decrease 46.7
46.4
46.9
46.8 45.6
44.5 43.3
44.9
44.3
44.1 42.8
40.3 39.3 37.9
DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 2016 2017
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT NOV DEC
JAN 2018
* The index ranges from 0 to 100 points. Figures above 50 points indicate an increase in activity levels.
Operating capacity utilization increases in January Spare capacity in the construction industry has declined. The indicator measuring actual-usual activity levels rose hit the mark of 35.2 points in January – its highest point since January 2015, when it amounted to 35.9 points. The fact that the indicator increased to a level still below the 50-point mark indicates that current levels are approaching usual levels for the month, although industry continues to operate below usual levels.
2
The operating capacity utilization rate reached 60% in January, up by two percentage points from December’s figure and by five percentage points from the level observed in January 2017. Compared to the historical average for the month, the indicator is down by three percentage points.
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 1 • January 2018
INDUSTRY’S EXPECTATIONS IN FEBRUARY 2018
Entrepreneurs remain optimistic The expectation indicators varied negatively from January to February. Nevertheless, all of these indices remain above the 50-point dividing line, indicating an increase in activity levels, new developments and services, number of employees and purchases of raw materials and inputs.
The indicators of expected activity levels and expected new developments and services dropped by 0.8 and 1.9 points respectively, standing at 55.4 and 53.8 points in February. The indices measuring purchases of inputs and raw materials and number of employees dropped respectively by 0.5 and 0.7 points to 54.5 and 53.3 points.
Expectations indices Diffusion indexes (0-100 points)*
Activity levels
New developments and services 56.2
55.7 Increase
Increase 55.4
53.0
51.9 50.4
50.0
Decrease
Decrease
FEB 2017
APR
JUN
AUG
Activity level
DEC
OCT
FEB 2017
FEB 2018
Dividing line
APR
JUN
AUG
DEC
OCT
New developments and services
Purchases of raw materials
FEB 2018
Dividing line
Number of employees
55.0
Increase 52.5
Increase
54.0
54.5 50.8
50
50 49.4
53.3
49.0 Decrease
Decrease
FEB 2017
53.8
50
50
APR
JUN
AUG
Purchases of raw materials
OCT
DEC
FEB 2017
FEB 2018
Dividing line
APR
JUN
AUG
Number of employees
* The indices vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
3
OCT
DEC
Dividing line
FEB 2018
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 1 • January 2018
Investment intentions hold steady in February The investment intentions index remained stable at 32.1 points in February. Compared with the same month of 2017, the index is up by 5.3 points. The
index ranges from 0 to 100. The higher the reading, the greater the willingness to invest.
Investment intentions index Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
38 35.9 34 32.1 30 26.8 25.9 26
22
FEB 2015
APR
AUG
OCT
FEB 2016
APR
AUG
OCT
FEB 2017
APR
*The index varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the greater the willingness to invest.
4
AUG
OCT
FEB 2018
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 1 • January 2018
CONSTRUCTION BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX IN FEBRUARY
Business confidence falls in February The Construction Business Confidence Index experienced a 0.9-point drop between January and February, down from 57.0 points to 56.3 points. Despite the decline, the indicator remains above the 50-point mark, suggesting confidence among construction entrepreneurs.
Thermometer for the ICEI - Construction Index (0-100 points)*
56.3
The expectation indicator shows that entrepreneurs are optimistic about the next six months, even though it fell by 1.6 points from January to February to 59.8 points. The indicator measuring current conditions continues to show deterioration in current business conditions as it held steady at 49.1 points.
lack of confidence
confidence
52.8 (historical average)
Historical series Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
61.7 Confidence
57.9
56.3 54.1
50.9
historical average = 52.8
50
Lack of confidence
FEB 2012
39.8 36.4
AUG
FEB 2013
AUG
FEB 2014
AUG
ICEI - Construction
FEB 2015
AUG
FEB 2016
AUG
FEB 2017
AUG
FEB 2018
Dividing line
* Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the more significant and widespread the lack of confidence.
5
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 1 • January 2018
Results by company size Construction industry performance Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
Jan/17
Dec/17
Jan/18
Jan/17
Dec/17
Jan/18
Jan/17
Dec/17
Jan/18
Jan/17
Dec/17
Jan/18
55
58
60
39.3
44.9
45.6
28.5
33.4
35.2
38.4
43.0
43.9
SMALL
51
53
53
38.5
44.5
42.2
29.5
37.5
38.9
38.1
44.9
41.9
MEDIUM
55
57
58
40.6
43.6
44.9
29.2
33.9
35.2
40.1
43.5
43.8
LARGE
56
60
63
38.8
45.7
47.2
27.8
31.7
33.8
37.6
42.0
44.6
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations for the construction industry New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
CONSTRUCTION
50.3
56.2
55.4
48.0
55.7
53.8
48.4
55.0
54.5
47.1
54.0
53.3
26.8
32.1
32.1
SMALL
49.5
54.8
55.5
47.4
53.3
53.0
47.3
52.8
53.2
46.0
51.1
52.0
25.9
32.7
32.1
MEDIUM
50.5
54.4
55.6
49.5
53.3
55.2
49.3
53.4
54.6
47.8
52.7
53.5
26.5
31.2
30.2
LARGE
50.4
57.7
55.3
47.4
57.9
53.3
48.2
56.8
55.0
47.1
55.8
53.7
27.3
32.4
33.2
Construction business confidence index and its components ICEI - Construction6
Current conditions7
Expectations8
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
50.9
57.2
56.3
40.1
49.1
49.1
56.5
61.4
59.8
SMALL
47.3
54.8
55.4
37.1
46.2
47.6
52.8
59.6
59.5
MEDIUM
52.3
56.5
56.6
40.8
48.7
49.0
58.2
60.3
60.1
LARGE
51.4
58.5
56.4
40.8
50.4
49.8
56.9
62.6
59.7
CONSTRUCTION
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series started in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higher-than-usual activity levels. 4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the greater the willingness to invest. 6 The ICEI-Construction varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate business confidence. 7 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation as compared to the last six months. 8 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations for the next six months.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 608 enterprises, including 205 small, 269 medium and 134 large companies. Data collection period: February, 1-19, 2018.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondconstr
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Indústria da Construção - Janeiro 2018” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www. cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Flavia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz, Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Construction industry reduces spare capacity The construction industry operated at 60% of its capacity in January, a figure not observed since July 2015. The operating capacity utilization rate has been trending upward since March 2017, pointing to a decline in spare capacity in the construction industry. In addition, the indicators measuring activity levels and number of employees fell at a slower pace in the first month of 2018.
The expectation indicators, which had been improving, experienced a fall in February. Despite the decline, the indices remain above the 50-point dividing line, suggesting that the construction industry is expected to increase over the next six months.
Operating capacity utilization Percentage (%)
62 60.0
60.0 60
59.0
58 58.0 56 54 53.0 52 50
JAN 2015
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN 2016
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN 2017
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN 2018
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 1 • January 2018
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN JANUARY 2018
Activity and employment fall at lower rate The indicators of activity levels and number of employees reached respectively 45.6 and 43.9 points in January, up by 0.7 and 0.9 points as compared to December. Compared with January
2017, the indicators grew respectively by 6.3 and 5.5 points, indicating that activity levels and employee numbers declined at a slower pace on both a yearover-year and month-over-month basis.
Activity level index Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
Increase 50 Decrease 46.7
46.4
46.9
46.8 45.6
44.5 43.3
44.9
44.3
44.1 42.8
40.3 39.3 37.9
DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 2016 2017
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT NOV DEC
JAN 2018
* The index ranges from 0 to 100 points. Figures above 50 points indicate an increase in activity levels.
Operating capacity utilization increases in January Spare capacity in the construction industry has declined. The indicator measuring actual-usual activity levels rose hit the mark of 35.2 points in January – its highest point since January 2015, when it amounted to 35.9 points. The fact that the indicator increased to a level still below the 50-point mark indicates that current levels are approaching usual levels for the month, although industry continues to operate below usual levels.
2
The operating capacity utilization rate reached 60% in January, up by two percentage points from December’s figure and by five percentage points from the level observed in January 2017. Compared to the historical average for the month, the indicator is down by three percentage points.
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 1 • January 2018
INDUSTRY’S EXPECTATIONS IN FEBRUARY 2018
Entrepreneurs remain optimistic The expectation indicators varied negatively from January to February. Nevertheless, all of these indices remain above the 50-point dividing line, indicating an increase in activity levels, new developments and services, number of employees and purchases of raw materials and inputs.
The indicators of expected activity levels and expected new developments and services dropped by 0.8 and 1.9 points respectively, standing at 55.4 and 53.8 points in February. The indices measuring purchases of inputs and raw materials and number of employees dropped respectively by 0.5 and 0.7 points to 54.5 and 53.3 points.
Expectations indices Diffusion indexes (0-100 points)*
Activity levels
New developments and services 56.2
55.7 Increase
Increase 55.4
53.0
51.9 50.4
50.0
Decrease
Decrease
FEB 2017
APR
JUN
AUG
Activity level
DEC
OCT
FEB 2017
FEB 2018
Dividing line
APR
JUN
AUG
DEC
OCT
New developments and services
Purchases of raw materials
FEB 2018
Dividing line
Number of employees
55.0
Increase 52.5
Increase
54.0
54.5 50.8
50
50 49.4
53.3
49.0 Decrease
Decrease
FEB 2017
53.8
50
50
APR
JUN
AUG
Purchases of raw materials
OCT
DEC
FEB 2017
FEB 2018
Dividing line
APR
JUN
AUG
Number of employees
* The indices vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
3
OCT
DEC
Dividing line
FEB 2018
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 1 • January 2018
Investment intentions hold steady in February The investment intentions index remained stable at 32.1 points in February. Compared with the same month of 2017, the index is up by 5.3 points. The
index ranges from 0 to 100. The higher the reading, the greater the willingness to invest.
Investment intentions index Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
38 35.9 34 32.1 30 26.8 25.9 26
22
FEB 2015
APR
AUG
OCT
FEB 2016
APR
AUG
OCT
FEB 2017
APR
*The index varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the greater the willingness to invest.
4
AUG
OCT
FEB 2018
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 1 • January 2018
CONSTRUCTION BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX IN FEBRUARY
Business confidence falls in February The Construction Business Confidence Index experienced a 0.9-point drop between January and February, down from 57.0 points to 56.3 points. Despite the decline, the indicator remains above the 50-point mark, suggesting confidence among construction entrepreneurs.
Thermometer for the ICEI - Construction Index (0-100 points)*
56.3
The expectation indicator shows that entrepreneurs are optimistic about the next six months, even though it fell by 1.6 points from January to February to 59.8 points. The indicator measuring current conditions continues to show deterioration in current business conditions as it held steady at 49.1 points.
lack of confidence
confidence
52.8 (historical average)
Historical series Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
61.7 Confidence
57.9
56.3 54.1
50.9
historical average = 52.8
50
Lack of confidence
FEB 2012
39.8 36.4
AUG
FEB 2013
AUG
FEB 2014
AUG
ICEI - Construction
FEB 2015
AUG
FEB 2016
AUG
FEB 2017
AUG
FEB 2018
Dividing line
* Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the more significant and widespread the lack of confidence.
5
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 1 • January 2018
Results by company size Construction industry performance Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
Jan/17
Dec/17
Jan/18
Jan/17
Dec/17
Jan/18
Jan/17
Dec/17
Jan/18
Jan/17
Dec/17
Jan/18
55
58
60
39.3
44.9
45.6
28.5
33.4
35.2
38.4
43.0
43.9
SMALL
51
53
53
38.5
44.5
42.2
29.5
37.5
38.9
38.1
44.9
41.9
MEDIUM
55
57
58
40.6
43.6
44.9
29.2
33.9
35.2
40.1
43.5
43.8
LARGE
56
60
63
38.8
45.7
47.2
27.8
31.7
33.8
37.6
42.0
44.6
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations for the construction industry New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
CONSTRUCTION
50.3
56.2
55.4
48.0
55.7
53.8
48.4
55.0
54.5
47.1
54.0
53.3
26.8
32.1
32.1
SMALL
49.5
54.8
55.5
47.4
53.3
53.0
47.3
52.8
53.2
46.0
51.1
52.0
25.9
32.7
32.1
MEDIUM
50.5
54.4
55.6
49.5
53.3
55.2
49.3
53.4
54.6
47.8
52.7
53.5
26.5
31.2
30.2
LARGE
50.4
57.7
55.3
47.4
57.9
53.3
48.2
56.8
55.0
47.1
55.8
53.7
27.3
32.4
33.2
Construction business confidence index and its components ICEI - Construction6
Current conditions7
Expectations8
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
50.9
57.2
56.3
40.1
49.1
49.1
56.5
61.4
59.8
SMALL
47.3
54.8
55.4
37.1
46.2
47.6
52.8
59.6
59.5
MEDIUM
52.3
56.5
56.6
40.8
48.7
49.0
58.2
60.3
60.1
LARGE
51.4
58.5
56.4
40.8
50.4
49.8
56.9
62.6
59.7
CONSTRUCTION
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series started in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higher-than-usual activity levels. 4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the greater the willingness to invest. 6 The ICEI-Construction varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate business confidence. 7 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation as compared to the last six months. 8 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations for the next six months.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 608 enterprises, including 205 small, 269 medium and 134 large companies. Data collection period: February, 1-19, 2018.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondconstr
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Indústria da Construção - Janeiro 2018” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www. cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Flavia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz, Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
