construction industry survey construction industry survey
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 2 • February 2018
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Business confidence increases in March The Construction Business Confidence Index (ICEIConstruction) increased by 0.7 points between February and March, hitting the mark of 57.0 points.
The indicators measuring activity levels and number of employees showed a slowdown in the pace of decline of activity and employment.
Among the components making up the ICEIConstruction, special mention should be made of the Current Conditions Indicator, which stood above the 50-point dividing line for the first time since February 2013, signaling that current business conditions in the construction industry has stopped worsening.
After March’s increase, the expectation indicators reversed the decline observed in February and consolidated their position above the 50-point mark, indicating an increase in the construction sector over the coming months.
ICEI-Construction - Current Conditions Index Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
Improvement 50
50.3
Worsening 49.1
41.1
MAR 2017
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Current Conditions Index * Figures below 50 points indicate worsening current conditions.
OCT
NOV
DEC
Dividing line
JAN 2018
FEB
MAR
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 2 • February 2018
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN FEBRUARY 2018
Activity and employment fall at lower rate The indicators of activity levels and number of employees reached 46.2 and 44.1 points respectively in February, up by 0.6 and 0.2 points as compared to January. Compared with February
2017, the indicators grew respectively by 5.9 and 5.2 points, indicating that activity levels and employee numbers declined at a slower pace.
Activity level index Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
Increase 50 Decrease
46.7
46.4
46.9
46.8 45.6
44.5 43.3
44.9
44.3
44.1
46.2
42.8
40.3
FEB MAR 2017
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN 2018
FEB
* The index ranges from 0 to 100 points. Figures above 50 points indicate an increase in activity levels.
Construction industry still operating below usual levels The indicator measuring actual-usual activity levels rose by 0.9 points to 36.1 points in February, hitting its highest point since December 2014. The fact that the indicator increased to a level still below the 50-point mark indicates that current levels are approaching usual levels for the month, even though industry continues to operate below usual levels.
2
The operating capacity utilization rate reached 57% in February, down by three percentage points from January’s figure and by five percentage points from its historical average for the month.
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 2 • February 2018
INDUSTRY’S EXPECTATIONS IN MARCH 2018
Expectation indicators rise again in March The expectation indicators grew in March, reversing the decline recorded in February. The indicators remained above the 50-point dividing line, which points to an increase in activity levels, new developments and services, number of employees, and purchases of raw materials and inputs.
The indicators of expected activity levels and of expected new developments and services rose by 1.1 and 1.6 points respectively, hitting the mark of 56.5 and 55.4 points in March. The indicators measuring purchases of inputs and raw materials and number of employees posted growth of 0.8 and 0.7 points respectively, reaching 55.3 and 54.0 points.
Expectations indices Diffusion indexes (0-100 points)*
Activity levels
New developments and services 56.5
56.2
51.9
53.8
50
50
Decrease
Decrease
MAY
JUL
SEP
Activity level
JAN 2018
NOV
MAR 2017
MAR
Dividing line
MAY
JUL
SEP
JAN 2018
NOV
New developments and services
Purchases of raw materials
MAR
Dividing line
Number of employees
55.3
55.0
Increase 52.5
Increase
54.0
54.5
Decrease
54.0 53.3
50.8
50
50
MAR 2017
55.4
55.4
53.0
MAR 2017
55.7
Increase
Increase
Decrease
MAY
JUL
SEP
Purchases of raw materials
NOV
JAN 2018
MAR
MAR 2017
Dividing line
MAY
JUL
SEP
Number of employees
* The indices vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
3
NOV
JAN 2018
Dividing line
MAR
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 2 • February 2018
Investment intentions fall in March The investment intentions index fell by 1.0 point in March on a month-over-month basis, standing at 31.1 points. Compared with the same month of
2017, the indicator is up by 4.5 points. The index ranges from 0 to 100. The higher the reading, the greater the willingness to invest.
Investment intentions index Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
36 34.5
32 31.1 28 26.6 24 23.5
MAR 2015
SEP
MAR 2016
SEP
MAR 2017
*The index varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the greater the willingness to invest.
4
SEP
MAR 2018
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 2 • February 2018
CONSTRUCTION BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX IN MARCH
Entrepreneurs remain confident The Construction Business Confidence Index increased by 0.7 points in March to 57.0 points. The indicator consolidated its position above the 50-point mark, suggesting confidence among construction entrepreneurs. For the first time since 2013, the current conditions indicator amounted to 50.3, signaling that current business conditions in the construction industry has stopped worsening. The expectation indicator rose by 0.7 points to 60.5 points and indicates that entrepreneurs are more optimistic about the next six months.
Thermometer for the ICEI - Construction Index (0-100 points)*
57.0 lack of confidence
confidence
52.9 (historical average)
Historical series Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
61.5 Confidence
57.0
57.2 52.7
52.1
historical average = 52.9
50
Lack of confidence 38.4 35.6
MAR 2012
SEP
MAR 2013
SEP
MAR 2014
SEP
ICEI - Construction
MAR 2015
SEP
MAR 2016
SEP
MAR 2017
SEP
MAR 2018
Dividing line
* Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the more significant and widespread the lack of confidence.
5
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 2 • February 2018
Results by company size Construction industry performance Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
53
60
57
40.3
45.6
46.2
28.8
35.2
36.1
38.9
43.9
44.1
SMALL
49
53
55
40.3
42.2
44.7
30.5
38.9
38.5
39.1
41.9
45.1
MEDIUM
52
58
58
42.2
44.9
46.3
30.3
35.2
38.1
41.0
43.8
43.8
LARGE
56
63
58
39.2
47.2
46.6
27.3
33.8
34.0
37.6
44.6
44.0
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations for the construction industry New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
CONSTRUCTION
49.1
55.4
56.5
47.5
53.8
55.4
47.2
54.5
55.3
46.1
53.3
54.0
26.6
32.1
31.1
SMALL
50.3
55.5
59.6
47.0
53.0
57.3
47.0
53.2
56.4
45.6
52.0
54.1
25.4
32.1
36.4
MEDIUM
50.0
55.6
56.0
49.2
55.2
54.8
49.2
54.6
54.8
46.9
53.5
52.4
25.4
30.2
31.7
LARGE
48.1
55.3
55.6
46.7
53.3
55.0
46.1
55.0
55.1
45.9
53.7
54.8
27.7
33.2
28.8
Construction business confidence index and its components ICEI - Construction6
Current conditions7
Expectations8
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
CONSTRUCTION
52.1
56.3
57.0
42.0
49.1
50.3
57.2
59.8
60.5
SMALL
50.8
55.4
56.1
40.9
47.6
50.6
56.2
59.5
59.1
MEDIUM
52.7
56.6
58.2
42.9
49.0
51.5
57.6
60.1
61.6
LARGE
52.2
56.4
56.7
41.9
49.8
49.5
57.4
59.7
60.3
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series started in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higher-than-usual activity levels. 4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the greater the willingness to invest. 6 The ICEI-Construction varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate business confidence. 7 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation as compared to the last six months. 8 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations for the next six months.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 599 enterprises, including 203 small, 265 medium and 131 large companies. Data collection period: March, 1-13, 2018.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondconstr
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Indústria da Construção - Fevereiro 2018” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Flavia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz, Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Business confidence increases in March The Construction Business Confidence Index (ICEIConstruction) increased by 0.7 points between February and March, hitting the mark of 57.0 points.
The indicators measuring activity levels and number of employees showed a slowdown in the pace of decline of activity and employment.
Among the components making up the ICEIConstruction, special mention should be made of the Current Conditions Indicator, which stood above the 50-point dividing line for the first time since February 2013, signaling that current business conditions in the construction industry has stopped worsening.
After March’s increase, the expectation indicators reversed the decline observed in February and consolidated their position above the 50-point mark, indicating an increase in the construction sector over the coming months.
ICEI-Construction - Current Conditions Index Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
Improvement 50
50.3
Worsening 49.1
41.1
MAR 2017
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Current Conditions Index * Figures below 50 points indicate worsening current conditions.
OCT
NOV
DEC
Dividing line
JAN 2018
FEB
MAR
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 2 • February 2018
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN FEBRUARY 2018
Activity and employment fall at lower rate The indicators of activity levels and number of employees reached 46.2 and 44.1 points respectively in February, up by 0.6 and 0.2 points as compared to January. Compared with February
2017, the indicators grew respectively by 5.9 and 5.2 points, indicating that activity levels and employee numbers declined at a slower pace.
Activity level index Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
Increase 50 Decrease
46.7
46.4
46.9
46.8 45.6
44.5 43.3
44.9
44.3
44.1
46.2
42.8
40.3
FEB MAR 2017
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN 2018
FEB
* The index ranges from 0 to 100 points. Figures above 50 points indicate an increase in activity levels.
Construction industry still operating below usual levels The indicator measuring actual-usual activity levels rose by 0.9 points to 36.1 points in February, hitting its highest point since December 2014. The fact that the indicator increased to a level still below the 50-point mark indicates that current levels are approaching usual levels for the month, even though industry continues to operate below usual levels.
2
The operating capacity utilization rate reached 57% in February, down by three percentage points from January’s figure and by five percentage points from its historical average for the month.
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 2 • February 2018
INDUSTRY’S EXPECTATIONS IN MARCH 2018
Expectation indicators rise again in March The expectation indicators grew in March, reversing the decline recorded in February. The indicators remained above the 50-point dividing line, which points to an increase in activity levels, new developments and services, number of employees, and purchases of raw materials and inputs.
The indicators of expected activity levels and of expected new developments and services rose by 1.1 and 1.6 points respectively, hitting the mark of 56.5 and 55.4 points in March. The indicators measuring purchases of inputs and raw materials and number of employees posted growth of 0.8 and 0.7 points respectively, reaching 55.3 and 54.0 points.
Expectations indices Diffusion indexes (0-100 points)*
Activity levels
New developments and services 56.5
56.2
51.9
53.8
50
50
Decrease
Decrease
MAY
JUL
SEP
Activity level
JAN 2018
NOV
MAR 2017
MAR
Dividing line
MAY
JUL
SEP
JAN 2018
NOV
New developments and services
Purchases of raw materials
MAR
Dividing line
Number of employees
55.3
55.0
Increase 52.5
Increase
54.0
54.5
Decrease
54.0 53.3
50.8
50
50
MAR 2017
55.4
55.4
53.0
MAR 2017
55.7
Increase
Increase
Decrease
MAY
JUL
SEP
Purchases of raw materials
NOV
JAN 2018
MAR
MAR 2017
Dividing line
MAY
JUL
SEP
Number of employees
* The indices vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
3
NOV
JAN 2018
Dividing line
MAR
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 2 • February 2018
Investment intentions fall in March The investment intentions index fell by 1.0 point in March on a month-over-month basis, standing at 31.1 points. Compared with the same month of
2017, the indicator is up by 4.5 points. The index ranges from 0 to 100. The higher the reading, the greater the willingness to invest.
Investment intentions index Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
36 34.5
32 31.1 28 26.6 24 23.5
MAR 2015
SEP
MAR 2016
SEP
MAR 2017
*The index varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the greater the willingness to invest.
4
SEP
MAR 2018
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 2 • February 2018
CONSTRUCTION BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX IN MARCH
Entrepreneurs remain confident The Construction Business Confidence Index increased by 0.7 points in March to 57.0 points. The indicator consolidated its position above the 50-point mark, suggesting confidence among construction entrepreneurs. For the first time since 2013, the current conditions indicator amounted to 50.3, signaling that current business conditions in the construction industry has stopped worsening. The expectation indicator rose by 0.7 points to 60.5 points and indicates that entrepreneurs are more optimistic about the next six months.
Thermometer for the ICEI - Construction Index (0-100 points)*
57.0 lack of confidence
confidence
52.9 (historical average)
Historical series Diffusion index (0-100 points)*
61.5 Confidence
57.0
57.2 52.7
52.1
historical average = 52.9
50
Lack of confidence 38.4 35.6
MAR 2012
SEP
MAR 2013
SEP
MAR 2014
SEP
ICEI - Construction
MAR 2015
SEP
MAR 2016
SEP
MAR 2017
SEP
MAR 2018
Dividing line
* Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the more significant and widespread the lack of confidence.
5
Construction industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 9 • Number 2 • February 2018
Results by company size Construction industry performance Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
Feb/17
Jan/18
Feb/18
53
60
57
40.3
45.6
46.2
28.8
35.2
36.1
38.9
43.9
44.1
SMALL
49
53
55
40.3
42.2
44.7
30.5
38.9
38.5
39.1
41.9
45.1
MEDIUM
52
58
58
42.2
44.9
46.3
30.3
35.2
38.1
41.0
43.8
43.8
LARGE
56
63
58
39.2
47.2
46.6
27.3
33.8
34.0
37.6
44.6
44.0
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations for the construction industry New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
CONSTRUCTION
49.1
55.4
56.5
47.5
53.8
55.4
47.2
54.5
55.3
46.1
53.3
54.0
26.6
32.1
31.1
SMALL
50.3
55.5
59.6
47.0
53.0
57.3
47.0
53.2
56.4
45.6
52.0
54.1
25.4
32.1
36.4
MEDIUM
50.0
55.6
56.0
49.2
55.2
54.8
49.2
54.6
54.8
46.9
53.5
52.4
25.4
30.2
31.7
LARGE
48.1
55.3
55.6
46.7
53.3
55.0
46.1
55.0
55.1
45.9
53.7
54.8
27.7
33.2
28.8
Construction business confidence index and its components ICEI - Construction6
Current conditions7
Expectations8
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
Mar/17
Feb/18
Mar/18
CONSTRUCTION
52.1
56.3
57.0
42.0
49.1
50.3
57.2
59.8
60.5
SMALL
50.8
55.4
56.1
40.9
47.6
50.6
56.2
59.5
59.1
MEDIUM
52.7
56.6
58.2
42.9
49.0
51.5
57.6
60.1
61.6
LARGE
52.2
56.4
56.7
41.9
49.8
49.5
57.4
59.7
60.3
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series started in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higher-than-usual activity levels. 4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the greater the willingness to invest. 6 The ICEI-Construction varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate business confidence. 7 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation as compared to the last six months. 8 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations for the next six months.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 599 enterprises, including 203 small, 265 medium and 131 large companies. Data collection period: March, 1-13, 2018.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondconstr
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Indústria da Construção - Fevereiro 2018” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Flavia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz, Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
