construction industry survey
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 11 • November 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Activity falls more significantly for fourth straight month The activity level indicator fell for the fourth month in a row and reached 39.3 points in November, drifting further away from the 50-point dividing line. The index has dropped by 3.0 points since July 2016, when it stood at 42.3 points. After holding steady in November, the expectations indicators also edged down in December. All indices
remained below the 50-point mark, suggesting an expected decline in activity levels, purchases of inputs and raw materials, new developments and services, and number of employees. As a result of this environment, investment intentions – which were already at significantly low levels – fell again in November.
Activity level index* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
42.3 40.1 37.5
41.2
41.8
41.5 40.0
39.3
36.4
35.2 33.6 JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
*The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate increased activity levels.
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 11 • November 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN NOVEMBER 2016
Falling activity and employment Activity and employment levels continued to decline in November, reaching 39.3 and 36.8 points respectively. Despite the declines, the indices are slightly up from the figures recorded in the same period of 2015, when they totaled 36.3 and 35.7 points, respectively. Readings below 50 points indicate a month-over-month decline in activity and employment. The operating capacity utilization rate remained unchanged from October at 56%. Although the index did not experience another drop, it is 8.0 percentage points shy of its historical average for
the month, reinforcing the weak performance of construction industry. The index of actual-usual activity levels hovered within the margin of error falling by 0.6 points in November as compared to October, standing at 27.2 points. Compared with its historical average, the index is down by 15.1 points. The index of actual-usual activity levels ranges from 0 to 100 points, with readings below 50 indicating lower-than-usual activity for the month. The further below 50 points, the more activity is below usual levels.
Index of actual-usual activity levels* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Higher 54.1 than usual 50 Lower than usual
27.2 Nov/16
NOV MAY 2010 2011
NOV
MAY 2012
NOV
MAY 2013
NOV
Actual-usual activity level
MAY 2014
NOV
MAY 2015
Dividing line
* The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate higher-than-usual activity levels.
2
NOV
MAY 2016
NOV
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 11 • November 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY’S EXPECTATIONS IN DECEMBER 2016
Expectations still pessimistic Business expectations remain pessimistic in December, with all expectations indicators experiencing a decline. The index of expected activity levels for the coming months fell by 1.3 points to 44.2 points. On the same comparison basis, the indices of expected purchases of inputs and raw materials and number of employees
recorded a 1.6-point decline. In addition, the indicator of expected new developments and services fell by 2.0 points. It is worth noting that while all expectations indicators are down on a month-on-month basis, all of them are at a reasonably higher level as compared to December 2015.
Expectations indices Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
44.2 42.7 42.6 42.3
DEC 2015
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
Activity levels
New developments and services
Purchases of raw materials
Number of employees
Dividing line The indicators range from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
3
DEC
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 11 • November 2016
Investment intentions down again Investment intentions index Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
The investment intentions index fell again in December, down by 1.4 points. At 25.9 points, the index is also lower than that recorded in December 2015 and dropped by 9.5 points from its historical average initiated in November 2013.
60 55 50 45 40 35 30
25.9
25
DEC 2013
MAR 2014
JUN
SEP
DEC
MAR 2015
JUN
SEP
DEC
MAR 2016
JUN
SEP
DEC
The index ranges from 0 to 100. The higher the index, the greater the willingness to invest.
Results by company size Monthly evolution of construction industry Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
Nov/15
Oct/16
Nov/16
Nov/15
Oct/16
Nov/16
Nov/15
Oct/16
Nov/16
Nov/15
Oct/16
Nov/16
57
56
56
36.3
40.0
39.3
26.9
27.8
27.2
35.7
37.7
36.8
SMALL
54
53
52
37.9
41.3
39.5
28.6
31.4
30.1
37.4
38.6
37.6
MEDIUM
57
57
56
35.8
41.8
40.7
27.1
29.1
28.3
35.8
40.2
38.6
LARGE
58
57
57
36.0
38.4
38.4
26.1
25.8
25.5
35.1
35.9
35.5
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
Dec/15
Nov/16
Dec/16
Dec/15
Nov/16
Dec/16
Dec/15
Nov/16
Dec/16
Dec/15
Nov/16
Dec/16
Dec/15
Nov/16
Dec/16
CONSTRUCTION
39.3
45.5
44.2
36.7
44.7
42.7
36.5
43.9
42.3
38.2
44.2
42.6
26.3
27.3
25.9
SMALL
39.1
46.0
44.5
36.4
45.6
43.3
36.6
42.5
42.1
37.3
44.4
42.2
24.7
25.3
25.6
MEDIUM
39.2
45.8
44.9
38.1
45.7
44.6
36.6
45.1
44.8
38.4
44.9
44.8
25.5
27.8
24.5
LARGE
39.4
45.1
43.6
36.1
43.8
41.4
36.5
43.8
41.0
38.5
43.8
41.5
27.3
27.7
26.8
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series started in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higherthan-usual activity levels.
i
4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the figure, the more entrepreneurs are likely to invest.
Learn more
Technical specifications
For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondconstr
Sample profile: 572 enterprises, including 177 small, 257 medium and 138 large companies. Data collection period: December 1-12, 2016.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Indústria da Construção - Novembro 2016” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Flavia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz, Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Activity falls more significantly for fourth straight month The activity level indicator fell for the fourth month in a row and reached 39.3 points in November, drifting further away from the 50-point dividing line. The index has dropped by 3.0 points since July 2016, when it stood at 42.3 points. After holding steady in November, the expectations indicators also edged down in December. All indices
remained below the 50-point mark, suggesting an expected decline in activity levels, purchases of inputs and raw materials, new developments and services, and number of employees. As a result of this environment, investment intentions – which were already at significantly low levels – fell again in November.
Activity level index* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
42.3 40.1 37.5
41.2
41.8
41.5 40.0
39.3
36.4
35.2 33.6 JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
*The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate increased activity levels.
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 11 • November 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN NOVEMBER 2016
Falling activity and employment Activity and employment levels continued to decline in November, reaching 39.3 and 36.8 points respectively. Despite the declines, the indices are slightly up from the figures recorded in the same period of 2015, when they totaled 36.3 and 35.7 points, respectively. Readings below 50 points indicate a month-over-month decline in activity and employment. The operating capacity utilization rate remained unchanged from October at 56%. Although the index did not experience another drop, it is 8.0 percentage points shy of its historical average for
the month, reinforcing the weak performance of construction industry. The index of actual-usual activity levels hovered within the margin of error falling by 0.6 points in November as compared to October, standing at 27.2 points. Compared with its historical average, the index is down by 15.1 points. The index of actual-usual activity levels ranges from 0 to 100 points, with readings below 50 indicating lower-than-usual activity for the month. The further below 50 points, the more activity is below usual levels.
Index of actual-usual activity levels* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Higher 54.1 than usual 50 Lower than usual
27.2 Nov/16
NOV MAY 2010 2011
NOV
MAY 2012
NOV
MAY 2013
NOV
Actual-usual activity level
MAY 2014
NOV
MAY 2015
Dividing line
* The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate higher-than-usual activity levels.
2
NOV
MAY 2016
NOV
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 11 • November 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY’S EXPECTATIONS IN DECEMBER 2016
Expectations still pessimistic Business expectations remain pessimistic in December, with all expectations indicators experiencing a decline. The index of expected activity levels for the coming months fell by 1.3 points to 44.2 points. On the same comparison basis, the indices of expected purchases of inputs and raw materials and number of employees
recorded a 1.6-point decline. In addition, the indicator of expected new developments and services fell by 2.0 points. It is worth noting that while all expectations indicators are down on a month-on-month basis, all of them are at a reasonably higher level as compared to December 2015.
Expectations indices Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
44.2 42.7 42.6 42.3
DEC 2015
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
Activity levels
New developments and services
Purchases of raw materials
Number of employees
Dividing line The indicators range from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
3
DEC
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 11 • November 2016
Investment intentions down again Investment intentions index Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
The investment intentions index fell again in December, down by 1.4 points. At 25.9 points, the index is also lower than that recorded in December 2015 and dropped by 9.5 points from its historical average initiated in November 2013.
60 55 50 45 40 35 30
25.9
25
DEC 2013
MAR 2014
JUN
SEP
DEC
MAR 2015
JUN
SEP
DEC
MAR 2016
JUN
SEP
DEC
The index ranges from 0 to 100. The higher the index, the greater the willingness to invest.
Results by company size Monthly evolution of construction industry Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
Nov/15
Oct/16
Nov/16
Nov/15
Oct/16
Nov/16
Nov/15
Oct/16
Nov/16
Nov/15
Oct/16
Nov/16
57
56
56
36.3
40.0
39.3
26.9
27.8
27.2
35.7
37.7
36.8
SMALL
54
53
52
37.9
41.3
39.5
28.6
31.4
30.1
37.4
38.6
37.6
MEDIUM
57
57
56
35.8
41.8
40.7
27.1
29.1
28.3
35.8
40.2
38.6
LARGE
58
57
57
36.0
38.4
38.4
26.1
25.8
25.5
35.1
35.9
35.5
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
Dec/15
Nov/16
Dec/16
Dec/15
Nov/16
Dec/16
Dec/15
Nov/16
Dec/16
Dec/15
Nov/16
Dec/16
Dec/15
Nov/16
Dec/16
CONSTRUCTION
39.3
45.5
44.2
36.7
44.7
42.7
36.5
43.9
42.3
38.2
44.2
42.6
26.3
27.3
25.9
SMALL
39.1
46.0
44.5
36.4
45.6
43.3
36.6
42.5
42.1
37.3
44.4
42.2
24.7
25.3
25.6
MEDIUM
39.2
45.8
44.9
38.1
45.7
44.6
36.6
45.1
44.8
38.4
44.9
44.8
25.5
27.8
24.5
LARGE
39.4
45.1
43.6
36.1
43.8
41.4
36.5
43.8
41.0
38.5
43.8
41.5
27.3
27.7
26.8
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series started in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higherthan-usual activity levels.
i
4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the figure, the more entrepreneurs are likely to invest.
Learn more
Technical specifications
For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondconstr
Sample profile: 572 enterprises, including 177 small, 257 medium and 138 large companies. Data collection period: December 1-12, 2016.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Indústria da Construção - Novembro 2016” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Flavia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz, Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
