1 Housing Market Summary North West Region
Housing Market Summary North West Region
Introduction This issue will focus on the following areas: • • • •
Waiting List Data House Prices and Affordability House building New Households
Waiting List Data Between 2009 and 2010, Communities and Local Government data shows that the North West saw a 15,674 (6.6%) increase in the number of people on local authority housing waiting lists – the eighth year running there has been a growth. Lancashire is the only sub-region where a reduction has been recorded (-9.4%) – a continued decline since 2007. Cumbria has seen the largest increase (19.9%). Figure 1 shows the number on social housing waiting lists for each sub-region from 2003. Figure 1: Waiting Lists 2003-2010
1
The increase in Cumbria is being driven by a 61.1% increase in Carlisle. There were 18,000 local authority lettings in the North West in 2009/10. This represents a 2.9% fall on the previous year. House Prices and Affordability It is difficult to pick out underlying trends in the housing market at the moment. Although average prices have fallen through the three months ending in December, this comes at the end of a period of fluctuation throughout 2010. Data provided by HM Land Registry shows that the overall average house price in the region for the final quarter of 2010 stood at £118,510 – down from £118,764 in the corresponding quarter of 2009 – a decrease of 0.2%. Table 1 below shows the average house prices by dwelling type for the final quarter of 2010. The table shows that in the region as a whole, average prices for every property type have fallen throughout the quarter and that terraced properties are the most affordable and cost well below the average for the region. Table 1: Average North West house prices by property type (£) SemiFlat/ Overall Detached Detached Terraced Maisonette Oct-10
119,322
231,842
121,725
71,851
113,324
Nov-10
118,572
230,385
120,960
71,399
112,611
Dec-10
117,637
228,567
120,005
70,836
111,723
Notwithstanding this overall picture and as Figure 2 shows, the sub-regional breakdown varies somewhat. Different dwelling types appear to vary in demand in the different sub-regions. For instance, flats in Greater Manchester cost more than semi-detached properties in the sub-region.
2
Figure 2: Property prices by sub-region
Sales Volumes At the time of writing data is not available from HM Land Registry for the sales volumes for December 2010. However, indications from October and November are of falling sales in the region and the sub-regions. Compared to the corresponding months of 2009, sales in October and November fell by 11.6% and 10.7% respectively. The picture is a similar on in the sub-regions with combined average sales for October and November falling compared to 2009 figures by an average of 14.4% in Lancashire, 13.5% in Greater Manchester, 11% in Merseyside, 8% in Cumbria and 2.6% in Cheshire. House building Inside Housing reports on house building completions in England hitting a record low in 2010. Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) figures show completions being down 13.2% on 2009 figures while starts are up 31.9% over the same period. There is a different picture in the North West, however. The 8,850 building starts that took place between January and December represent a 54.2% increase on the previous twelve months, although there was a 0.8% decrease in completions. Generally a slower quarter for building starts, the final quarter of 2010 showed a decrease in new housing starts on the previous quarter (-4.9%) but a 26.6% increase on the corresponding quarter of 2009. After a relatively dramatic downturn in building starts and completions in the early part of 2008, figures have shown a levelling off since. Compared with the previous quarter, building completions are up 19.5% (390 homes) but down 2% on the corresponding quarter of 2009. Figure 4 below shows house building from 2007.
3
The vast majority of the 1,290 completions (87.9%) were in the private sector with 11.7% built by RSLs. Building starts in the region stood at 1,950 with 88.7% being in the private sector. Figure 4: North West House Building Starts and Completions 2007-2010
New Households New-build alone is not likely to meet the likely demand by the formation of new households in the region. By 2013 household numbers are set to increase by 109,000 (3.7%) on those in 2008 compared with a 5.2% growth for the whole of England (DCLG). In terms of the number of households being formed between 2008 and 2013, greatest increases are set to take place in Greater Manchester (49,000) and Lancashire (21,000). The 19,000 extra households projected to be formed in the City of Manchester represent a 9.4% proportionate increase – the highest proportionate growth in the region. Vacant Private Dwellings Over half of this projected demand could be met by bringing empty homes back into use. HSSA data for 2009 showed that there were 64,332 privately owned dwellings empty for more than six months (2.7% of the private stock) in the North West. Of these 6.8% were vacant for regeneration or other housing schemes. Almost two-thirds of these homes were found in Greater Manchester (38.1%) and Merseyside (24.3%), while almost one-fifth were found in Lancashire (19.1%), 10.6% in Cheshire and 7.97% in Cumbria. Over half of the empty private homes in Merseyside could be found in Liverpool (51.3%). Similarly, Cheshire East’s empty private stock makes up over half of that in all of Cheshire (50.3%). Elsewhere Barrow-in-Furness (27%) and City of Manchester (22.3%) had the highest proportions of empty private dwellings in their respective sub-regions.
4
Merseyside’s private stock is most affected by regeneration activity. The 2,154 private dwellings vacant due to regeneration represents 12.8% of the total empty private dwellings in the sub-region. Endnote The next report will concentrate on the first quarter of 2011 and will be available to all NHC members. If you have any questions or queries regarding this document, please contact Barry Turnbull at Northern Housing Consortium on 0191 5661030 or at [email protected]. Alternatively visit our website at www.northern-consortium.org.uk.
5
Introduction This issue will focus on the following areas: • • • •
Waiting List Data House Prices and Affordability House building New Households
Waiting List Data Between 2009 and 2010, Communities and Local Government data shows that the North West saw a 15,674 (6.6%) increase in the number of people on local authority housing waiting lists – the eighth year running there has been a growth. Lancashire is the only sub-region where a reduction has been recorded (-9.4%) – a continued decline since 2007. Cumbria has seen the largest increase (19.9%). Figure 1 shows the number on social housing waiting lists for each sub-region from 2003. Figure 1: Waiting Lists 2003-2010
1
The increase in Cumbria is being driven by a 61.1% increase in Carlisle. There were 18,000 local authority lettings in the North West in 2009/10. This represents a 2.9% fall on the previous year. House Prices and Affordability It is difficult to pick out underlying trends in the housing market at the moment. Although average prices have fallen through the three months ending in December, this comes at the end of a period of fluctuation throughout 2010. Data provided by HM Land Registry shows that the overall average house price in the region for the final quarter of 2010 stood at £118,510 – down from £118,764 in the corresponding quarter of 2009 – a decrease of 0.2%. Table 1 below shows the average house prices by dwelling type for the final quarter of 2010. The table shows that in the region as a whole, average prices for every property type have fallen throughout the quarter and that terraced properties are the most affordable and cost well below the average for the region. Table 1: Average North West house prices by property type (£) SemiFlat/ Overall Detached Detached Terraced Maisonette Oct-10
119,322
231,842
121,725
71,851
113,324
Nov-10
118,572
230,385
120,960
71,399
112,611
Dec-10
117,637
228,567
120,005
70,836
111,723
Notwithstanding this overall picture and as Figure 2 shows, the sub-regional breakdown varies somewhat. Different dwelling types appear to vary in demand in the different sub-regions. For instance, flats in Greater Manchester cost more than semi-detached properties in the sub-region.
2
Figure 2: Property prices by sub-region
Sales Volumes At the time of writing data is not available from HM Land Registry for the sales volumes for December 2010. However, indications from October and November are of falling sales in the region and the sub-regions. Compared to the corresponding months of 2009, sales in October and November fell by 11.6% and 10.7% respectively. The picture is a similar on in the sub-regions with combined average sales for October and November falling compared to 2009 figures by an average of 14.4% in Lancashire, 13.5% in Greater Manchester, 11% in Merseyside, 8% in Cumbria and 2.6% in Cheshire. House building Inside Housing reports on house building completions in England hitting a record low in 2010. Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) figures show completions being down 13.2% on 2009 figures while starts are up 31.9% over the same period. There is a different picture in the North West, however. The 8,850 building starts that took place between January and December represent a 54.2% increase on the previous twelve months, although there was a 0.8% decrease in completions. Generally a slower quarter for building starts, the final quarter of 2010 showed a decrease in new housing starts on the previous quarter (-4.9%) but a 26.6% increase on the corresponding quarter of 2009. After a relatively dramatic downturn in building starts and completions in the early part of 2008, figures have shown a levelling off since. Compared with the previous quarter, building completions are up 19.5% (390 homes) but down 2% on the corresponding quarter of 2009. Figure 4 below shows house building from 2007.
3
The vast majority of the 1,290 completions (87.9%) were in the private sector with 11.7% built by RSLs. Building starts in the region stood at 1,950 with 88.7% being in the private sector. Figure 4: North West House Building Starts and Completions 2007-2010
New Households New-build alone is not likely to meet the likely demand by the formation of new households in the region. By 2013 household numbers are set to increase by 109,000 (3.7%) on those in 2008 compared with a 5.2% growth for the whole of England (DCLG). In terms of the number of households being formed between 2008 and 2013, greatest increases are set to take place in Greater Manchester (49,000) and Lancashire (21,000). The 19,000 extra households projected to be formed in the City of Manchester represent a 9.4% proportionate increase – the highest proportionate growth in the region. Vacant Private Dwellings Over half of this projected demand could be met by bringing empty homes back into use. HSSA data for 2009 showed that there were 64,332 privately owned dwellings empty for more than six months (2.7% of the private stock) in the North West. Of these 6.8% were vacant for regeneration or other housing schemes. Almost two-thirds of these homes were found in Greater Manchester (38.1%) and Merseyside (24.3%), while almost one-fifth were found in Lancashire (19.1%), 10.6% in Cheshire and 7.97% in Cumbria. Over half of the empty private homes in Merseyside could be found in Liverpool (51.3%). Similarly, Cheshire East’s empty private stock makes up over half of that in all of Cheshire (50.3%). Elsewhere Barrow-in-Furness (27%) and City of Manchester (22.3%) had the highest proportions of empty private dwellings in their respective sub-regions.
4
Merseyside’s private stock is most affected by regeneration activity. The 2,154 private dwellings vacant due to regeneration represents 12.8% of the total empty private dwellings in the sub-region. Endnote The next report will concentrate on the first quarter of 2011 and will be available to all NHC members. If you have any questions or queries regarding this document, please contact Barry Turnbull at Northern Housing Consortium on 0191 5661030 or at [email protected]. Alternatively visit our website at www.northern-consortium.org.uk.
5
