Big C Supercenter Company Update
Sell (16E TP Bt223.00) Close Bt220.00
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Commerce August 17, 2016
2Q16 net profit increased 13% YoY Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
9.287
10.349
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
8.5%
14.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
BIGC.BK/BIGC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
825.00
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
182.00/5,249.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.34
52 week High / Low (Bt)
252.00/182.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
182.00 0.17
Estimated free float (%)
41.44
Beta
0.19
URL
www.bigc.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Pornsawat Jirajarus Analyst, no 18228
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6257
Weak consumption still means high competition for hypermarkets BIGC’s profit growth recovered in 2Q16. Although we expect its earnings to improve remarkably in 2H16, we view that the slow pickup in the economy remains a headwind that will cause hypermarkets to continue their head‐on competition. Given that the 1H16 profit indicates some downside risk to our forecast, we maintain our Sell rating. 2Q16 net profit increased 13% YoY BIGC reported 2Q16 net profit of Bt2.23bn (EPS of Bt2.71), up 13% YoY and 48% QoQ (seasonal). The YoY profit growth was driven largely by 1) a 5% (or Bt270mn) decline in SG&A expenses; 2) a 3% (Bt112mn) rise in rents & other income; 3) a 14% (Bt66mn) decrease in income tax; and 4) a 22% (Bt37mn) decline in interest expenses. Same‐store sales (SSSG) declined 4.0% YoY, deepening from ‐2.9% YoY in 1Q16, due to rising competition and changing the sales strategy to refrain from negative margin products. The EBITDA margin rose 88 bps YoY to 12.3% due to rising rent and other income and declining costs from improving efficiency in the supply chain. The 1H16 net profit was Bt3.74bn, up 9% YoY and accounting for 45% of our full‐year forecast. Resuming big store rollouts In 2Q16, BIGC opened 1 hypermarket (in Ranong province), 2 Big C Market stores, 11 Mini Big C stores and 2 Pure drugstores. At end‐ June’16, BIGC operated 126 large format stores, 57 Big C Market stores, 408 Mini Big C (net +6 stores QoQ) and 149 Pure drugstores. Five more big stores to follow in 2H16 We expect further improvement in efficiency, higher sales during the EURO football promotion, increasing rental revenue from store renovations and declining interest costs to be earnings catalysts. We expect that its acceleration in rolling out five more hypermarkets in 2H16 will raise rental revenue growth, helping to boost profit in 2H16. However, given that the 1H16 profit indicates some downside, we may review our projections after the analyst meeting next week. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Bt mn) Net profit (Bt mn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2013 118,177 6,976 8.46 14.85% 2.55 44.89
2014 121,845 7,235 8.77 3.72% 2.62 51.09
2015 119,620 6,898 8.36 ‐4.66% 2.62 56.57
2016E 128,477 8,318 10.08 20.60% 3.02 64.04
2017E 138,336 9,754 11.82 17.26% 3.55 72.84
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net Gearing (%)
2013 21.7 13.0 4.1 1.38% 18.91 51.70
2014 27.6 15.4 4.7 1.08% 17.17 31.41
2015 24.2 13.6 3.6 1.30% 14.78 20.58
2016E 21.8 12.8 3.4 1.37% 15.74 Cash
2017E 18.6 11.0 3.0 1.61% 16.23 Cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: Earnings results review Profit and Loss (Btmn) FY Ended 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (THB) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net debt /equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
2Q15 30,661 4,590 3,508 (167) 3,498 (466) 0 0 0 1,978 1,978 2.40 15.0 11.4 6.5 0.6 21.0 0.5 52.4 17.8
3Q15 28,376 3,663 2,750 (158) 3,316 (278) 0 0 0 1,343 1,343 1.63 12.9 9.7 4.7 0.6 17.4 0.5 54.0 16.8
4Q15 30,816 4,278 3,793 (163) 3,784 (516) 0 0 0 2,137 2,137 2.59 13.9 12.3 6.9 0.5 23.2 0.3 44.9 16.4
1Q16 29,427 3,889 2,976 (128) 3,464 (385) 0 0 0 1,507 1,507 1.83 13.2 10.1 5.1 0.5 23.3 0.4 58.0 16.1
2Q16 % YoY % QoQ 30,187 (1.5) 2.6 4,344 (5.4) 11.7 3,719 6.0 25.0 (129) (22.4) 1.3 3,610 3.2 4.2 (400) (14.2) 4.0 0 nm nm 0 nm nm 0 nm nm 2,233 12.9 48.2 2,233 12.9 48.2 2.71 12.9 48.2 14.4 12.3 7.4 0.5 28.7 0.4 58.1 16.3
1H15 60,429 8,505 6,431 (356) 6,989 (827) 0 0 0 3,418 3,418 4.14 14.1 10.6 5.1 0.6 18.1 0.5 52.4 17.8
1H16 59,613 8,233 6,695 (257) 7,074 (785) 0 0 0 3,739 3,739 4.53 13.8 11.2 5.1 0.5 26.0 0.4 58.1 16.3
% YoY (1.3) (3.2) 4.1 (27.7) 1.2 (5.1) nm nm nm 9.4 9.4 9.4
2016E % YoY % YTD 128,477 7.4 46.4 18,178 10.5 45.3 14,562 12.2 46.0 (309) (54.4) 83.3 15,096 7.1 46.9 (2,081) 28.3 37.7 0 nm nm 0 nm nm 0 nm nm 8,318 20.6 45.0 8,318 20.6 45.0 10.08 20.6 45.0 14.1 11.3 6.5 0.5 47.1 0.3 64.0 15.7
Source: Company data, KTZMICO Research
20%
Gross margin
Net profit margin
15% 10% 5%
1Q16
1Q15
1Q14
1Q13
1Q12
0% 1Q11
1Q16
1Q15
1Q14
1Q13
1Q12
1Q11
Figure 2: Same‐store‐sales growth and profitability trend Same‐store‐sales growth Sales growth 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0%
‐10.0%
Source: Company data, KTZMICO Research
Figure 3: Net profit vs. % growth YoY
(X)
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Jul-16
Jul-15
Source: Company data, KTZMICO Research
Jan-16
Jan-15
1Q16
1Q15
0.0
1Q14
‐40%
1Q13
5.0
‐
1Q12
‐20%
Jul-14
-2 S.D.
Jan-14
-1 S.D.
10.0
Jul-13
15.0
0%
Jul-12
20%
500
1Q11
Avg.
20.0
Jan-13
1,000
+1 S.D. 25.0
Jul-11
40% 1,500
+2 S.D.
Jan-12
60%
2,000
30.0
Jan-11
80%
2,500
35.0
Jul-10
100%
Jan-10
% growth YoY
Jul-09
Net profit
Jan-09
Bt mn
3,000
Figure 4: PE band
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, CI, EARTH. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH, RJH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
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Chachoengsao Branch
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Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
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Sriworajak Building Branch
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1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
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Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
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Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
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624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.