Berli Jucker
Outperform (17E TP Bt48.00)
Company Update
Close Bt44.25
Commerce
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
August 16, 2017
2Q17 profit was 11% below forecast Results date: August 15, 2017 Price Performance (%) Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.499
1.780
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐5.3%
8.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
BJC.BK/BJC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
3,992.87
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
177.00/5,309.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/15.04
52 week High / Low (Bt)
56.25/39.75
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
8,299.00
NVDR (%)
2.70
Estimated free float (%)
25.1
Beta
1.23
URL
www.bjc.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Pornsawat Jirajarus Analyst, no 18228
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6257
Expansion, improving margin and lower interest costs the catalysts We still expect growing sales from expansion, an improving profit margin and declining interest costs to remain catalysts for the seasonal rebound of earnings in 2H17. BJC’s positioning as ASEAN’s leading integrated retail platform and the stock’s prospective PE/EPS growth at 0.8x in 17E (vs. EPS CAGR of 39% in 17‐18E) cause us to retain a positive view on the stock. We maintain our “Outperform” rating. 2Q17 core net profit increased 137% YoY BJC reported 2Q17 net profit of Bt996mn (EPS of Bt0.25), up 519% YoY and 3% QoQ. Excluding Fx loss (relating to the BIGC acquisition) of Bt259mn in 2Q16, core net profit would rise 137% YoY. The 2Q17 net profit was 11% (or Bt118mn) below our forecast due to 4% higher‐than‐expected SG&A expenses and 5% lower‐than‐expected other income. Note that the company restated its 2Q16 profit by readjusting SG&A and tax expenses (relating to the BIGC acquisition), resulting in the 2Q16 profit being lowered by 64% to Bt161mn. Lower interest costs and improving margin the catalysts Key drivers for the YoY profit improvement were mainly 1) a decline in financial expenses (‐44% YoY or Bt890mn) as a result of the capital increase in 2H16 and 2) a 181 bps improvement in the gross margin (to 18.3%, largely from BIGC discontinuing big basket discounts). Profit from the consumer product business and Healthcare & Technical products business rose 86% YoY (or Bt56mn, mainly from new products) and 44% YoY (or Bt43mn, from a high backlog of orders), respectively. Meanwhile, profit from the packaging business declined 9% YoY (or Bt47mn due to the maintenance shutdown of a glass furnace). For modern trade business, BIGC’s profit declined 14% YoY to Bt1.61bn (‐16% vs. est.) from declining other revenue and rising SG&A expenses. The 2Q17 EBITDA margin inched up 18 bps YoY to 15.3%. The 1H17 net profit was Bt1.96bn, up 42% YoY and accounting for 35% of our full‐year forecast (vs. 39% in 1H16). Interim dividend of Bt0.15/share BJC announced an interim dividend of Bt0.15/share from the 1H17 performance. The stock will go XD on August 28. Expansion and improving margin to remain the catalysts We believe that expansion of BIGC (7‐8 new hypermarkets) in 2H17, BJC’s overall improving profit margin, additional capacity of around 10% for glass bottle production and declining interest costs should remain the catalysts for 2H17 and 18E. BJC will start rolling out BigC Market stores in Cambodia next year. We maintain our forecast for EPS growth of 41% in 17E. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Bt mn) Net profit (Bt mn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net Gearing (%)
2015 42,893 2,792 1.75 66.22 0.84 13.03 2015 20.0 11.3 2.7 2.2 14.4 66.7
2016 125,330 4,001 1.00 (42.80) 0.50 28.04 2016 50.8 20.5 1.8 1.2 4.8 135.9
2017E 152,164 5,661 1.42 41.09 0.71 28.98 2017E 29.9 16.0 1.5 1.5 5.0 127.8
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2018E 165,606 7,711 1.93 36.12 0.96 30.44 2018E 21.9 13.7 1.4 2.3 6.5 116.7
2019E 179,464 9,823 2.45 27.30 1.23 32.27 2019E 17.2 11.8 1.3 2.9 7.8 103.5
Figure 1: Quarterly earnings review Profit and Loss (Bt mn) 2Q16 3Q16 FY Ended 31 Dec 40,487 33,481 Revenue 6,662 6,613 Gross profit EBITDA 6,110 5,234 Interest expense 2,003 1,750 Other income 3,733 3,296 Income tax 419 626 Forex gain (loss) (299) 1,354 Other extraordinary Items 0 0 Gn (Ls) from affiliates 58 36 161 1,800 Net profit (loss) 420 696 Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (THB) 0.10 0.45 Gross margin (%) 16.5 19.8 EBITDA margin (%) 15.1 15.6 Net margin (%) 0.4 5.4 Current ratio (x) 0.1 0.7 Interest coverage (x) 3.1 3.0 14.2 1.9 Debt / equity (x) 12.1 25.6 BVPS (Bt) 3.0 2.0 ROE (%)
4Q16
1Q17
36,645
35,677
37,107
2Q17 % YoY (8.3)
% QoQ 4.0
55,204
1H16
72,784
1H17 % YoY 31.8
152,164
2017E
21.4
47.8
6,199 5,433 1,176
6,602 5,543 1,125
6,779 5,666 1,113
1.8 (7.3) (44.4)
2.7 2.2 (1.0)
9,748 8,108 2,276
13,381 11,209 2,238
37.3 38.2 (1.7)
27,059 20,442 4,457
19.9 21.6 (14.3)
49.5 54.8 50.2
3,618 8
3,552 531
3,645 595
(2.3) 41.8
2.6 12.0
4,252 611
7,197 1,126
69.2 84.1
15,165 1,786
35.8 43.4
47.5 63.0
37 0
(51) 0
(1) 0
n.m. n.m.
(98.5) n.m.
(327) 0
(52) 0
(84.0) n.m.
(52) 0
(104.9) n.m.
n.m. n.m.
27 1,538 1,538
24 965 965
(7) 996 996
n.m. 519.5 137.2
n.m. 3.2 3.2
118 663 946
17 1,960 1,960
(85.5) 195.7 107.2
77 5,661 5,661
(57.4) 41.5 78.0
22.1 34.6 34.6
0.39 16.9
0.24 18.5
0.25 18.3
147.0
3.2
0.42 17.7
0.49 18.4
17.9
1.42 17.8
41.1
34.7
14.8 4.2
15.5 2.7
15.3 2.7
14.7 1.2
15.4 2.7
13.4 3.7
0.7 4.6
1.0 4.9
1.1 5.1
1.4 3.6
1.1 5.0
1.0 4.6
1.8 27.9 1.6
1.8 29.0 1.3
1.7 30.5 1.2
1.3 10.3 4.1
1.7 30.5 1.2
1.8 29.0 4.9
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
% YoY
% YTD
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TTL, NMG, SAWAD.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068