Cement Dispatches for February 2016 - Aljazira Capital

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Cement Dispatches for February 2016 March 2016 Please read Disclaimer on the back

Cement Dispatches- decline @5.3%MoM and grew 3.5%YoY: According to the data released by Yamamah Cement Co, cement dispatches for the month of February-2016 stood at 5.44mn tons, as compared to 5.26mn tons in February-2015, depicting a decrease of 5.3%MoM and an increase of 3.5%YoY. Overview: Saudi Arabia’s cement dispatches, in February 2016, witnessed a modest growth of 3.5%YoY as construction activity has showed signs of a slowdown, while monthly cement sales growth recorded a decline of about 5.3%MoM. We believe that demand is expected to maintain a modest growth in the short term despite of current declining in oil prices. The government will continue spending on vital infrastructure projects and keep the construction activity on track, along with the expected upcoming construction activity of residential units to meet the current housing shortage in Saudi Arabia. However, we expect some pressure on the sector owing to the reduction in overall government spending. We believe cement sales in 2016 would be in line with last year’s demand growth, with at worst scenario declined by only 3-4%, compared with the 8% increase seen in 2015. Meanwhile, margins are likely to remain low due to the new rises in fuel cost and higher clinker inventory levels in the market, which already led to higher competition for market share and resulting in selling prices decline. On MoM basis, Hail and Najran Cement companies showed the most decrease in their cement dispatches as they declined by 12.4% and 9.6% respectively for the month of February-2016. On the other hand, Aljouf cement company showed no change in cement dispatches during the period. On YoY basis, City and Riyadh cement companies showed the highest growth of 35.4%YoY and 27.4%YoY respectively. Meanwhile, Najran and Saudi cement witnessed a fall of 19.6%YoY and 5.3%YoY respectively. Clinker inventory levels have shown a monthly decline by 2.1%, which was due to lower clinker production of 1.0%MoM in contrast to the comparative period and despite of a slight fall in monthly volumetric sales. The highest MoM decline was recorded by Arabian Cement Company, which showed a fall of 21.7% due to 29%MoM lower clinker production. In addition, Southern Cement Company witnessed a decline of 16.7% MoM in its clinker inventory. On the other hand, Hail showed an increase in its clinker inventory by 5.3% MoM, while Eastern showed an increase of 1.8% YoY. Market Share: City Cement Company showed an improvement in its market share as it increased from 4.0% in February-2015 to 5.3% in February-2016. Whereas, Najran Cement Company market share decline to 7.6% in February-2016 as compared to 5.9% in February-2015 due to sales slowdown and higher utilization rate from other players.

Key Data Dispatches Companies

Jan-16

Feb-15

Feb-16

%Change M/M

Yamamah Cement Saudi Cement Eastern Cement Qassim Cement Yanbu Cement Arabian Cement Southern Cement Tabuk Cement Riyadh Cement Najran Cement City Cement Northern Cement AlJouf Cement AlSafwa Cement Hail Cement Total

551 696 290 425 630 492 760 130 360 354 290 241 161 203 161 5,744

474 696 275 368 609 487 731 125 263 398 212 193 138 158 129 5,256

515 659 268 407 602 474 726 127 335 320 287 232 161 186 141 5,440

-6.5% -5.3% -7.6% -4.2% -4.4% -3.7% -4.5% -2.3% -6.9% -9.6% -1.0% -3.7% 0.0% -8.4% -12.4% -5.3%

Clinker Inventory Levels

%Change Y/Y

2M-15

2M-16

8.6% -5.3% -2.5% 10.6% -1.1% -2.7% -0.7% 1.6% 27.4% -19.6% 35.4% 20.2% 16.7% 17.7% 9.3% 3.5%

975 1431 545 733 1245 999 1481 255 530 797 432 386 276 349 253 10,685

1,066 1,355 558 832 1,232 966 1,486 257 695 674 577 473 322 392 302 11,187

% Change 9.3% -5.3% 2.4% 13.5% -1.0% -3.3% 0.4% 0.9% 31.2% -15.4% 33.6% 22.5% 16.5% 12.3% 19.5% 4.7%

Jan-16

Feb-15

Feb-16

3,316 3,974 1,516 906 3,106 530 747 854 1,726 2,436 796 589 524 181 842 22,043

2,818 3,431 913 850 2,902 418 1,655 505 1,520 2,695 444 1,283 648 68 712 20,861

3,272 4,005 1,543 883 3,108 415 622 842 1,692 2,308 807 513 510 173 887 21,580

YoY % Change 16.1% 16.7% 69.0% 3.9% 7.1% -0.7% -62.4% 66.8% 11.3% -14.4% 81.8% -60.0% -21.3% 154.4% 24.6% 3.4%

MoM % Change -1.3% 0.8% 1.8% -2.5% 0.1% -21.7% -16.7% -1.4% -2.0% -5.3% 1.4% -12.9% -2.7% -4.4% 5.3% -2.1%

Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Capital

Market Share in Saudi Cement Sector (%) 15.0% 13.0% 11.0% 9.0%

90.0%

-4.0%

-8.5%

70.0%

-4.5% 5.0%

-6.0%

50.0%

6.9%

7.0%

23.1%

-5.8%

5.0%

-22.3%

30.8% 16.1%

30.0% 12.7%

13.7%

-1.8%

3.0%

5.6%

-10.0%

1.0% -1.0%

Yamama Cement

Saudi Cement

Eastern Cement

Qassim Cement

Yanbu Cement

Share in dispatches-Feb-2015

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran

1

10.0%

+966 11 2256248 [email protected]

© All rights reserved

Arabian Cement

Southern Cement

Tabuk Cement

Riyadh Cement

Najran Cement

Share in dispatches-Feb-2016

City Northern Cement Cement

AlJouf Cement

AlSafwa Cement

Hail Cement

-30.0%

% Change in Share in Dispatches Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Capital

Cement Dispatches for February 2016 March 2016 Please read Disclaimer on the back

Company News & Events Date of Company Name Announcement

Corporate Event & Announcement

7-2-2016

The company announced that the fire broke out at one of the plants will have no financial impact on the company and the company has taken necessary procedures to continue production at current capacity.

Saudi Cement

7-2-2016

Saudi Cement Company announced that the Board of Directors has discussed during its meeting on 04/02/2016 the current market conditions and continuation of export ban, which led to the rise of clinker inventory to high levels. Accordingly, the Board have resolved to temporarily stop Kiln (6) with daily production capacity of 3500 ton of clinker until market conditions improve including lifting of export ban. Since Kiln (6) production would have been added during 2016 to inventory, which has already reached around 4 million tons, it is not expected that this stoppage would have any impact on the financial results.

AlJouf Cement

11-1-2016

The company announced an increase in the cost by 35mn SAR in 2016 due to increase in fuel prices by the Saudi Government.

10-1-2016

Eastern Cement Company announced that the Board of Directors has discussed during its meeting the current market conditions and continuation of export ban, which led to the rise of clinker inventory to high levels. Accordingly, the Board have resolved to temporarily stop Kiln (1) with daily production capacity of 3500 ton of clinker until market conditions improve including lifting of export ban.

Southern Cement

Eastern Cement

4-1-2016

Southern Cement

The company announced an increase in the cost 50mn SAR in 2016 due to increase in fuel prices by Saudi government. Source: The Saudi Stock Exchange - Tadawul

Share in Dispatches

Dispatches Growth

7.48%

8.71%

Others

2

© All rights reserved

Feb-16

Jan-16

Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Sales

5,256 5,875

5,724 5,738

Growth (%) -3.2% 11.8% -2.6%

Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research

Dec-15

Eastern Cement

Nov-15

Najran cement 9.47%

Oct-15

1,000

Sep-15

Qassim Cement

Aug-15

5.88%

2,000

Jul-15

11.07%

Arabian Cement

Jun-15

4.93%

3,000

May-15

February-2016

Yamama Cement

4,000

Apr-15

12.11%

Yanbu Cement

Mar-15

Saudi Cement

27.00%

5,000

Feb-15

Southern Cement

13.35%

Thousand Tonne

6,000

4,728

2,946

0.2% -17.6% -34.1%

4,895 4,340 57%

-11%

5,131 5,398 5,801 5,747 18%

5.2%

7%

-1%

5,440 -5%

Source : Yamama Cement Company, AlJazira Research

Cement Dispatches for February 2016 March 2016 Please read Disclaimer on the back

Dispatches & Change

Yamama Cement

Eastern Cement Dispatches

% Change

500 400 300 200 100

40%

250

20%

200

0%

150

-20%

100

-40%

50

-60%

0

1 O ct -1 5 N ov -1 D ec -1 Ja n16 Fe b1

1

300

Se

g-

Au

350

60%

p-

5

15

l-1

n-

Ju

Ju

16

Fe

b-

5

16

Ja

n-

5

-1

D

ec

5

-1

N

ov

15

-1

p-

ct

Se

O

5

15

l-1

Au

Ju

g-

5

-60%

6

Fe b

-1

16

Ja

n-

5

De

c1

15

v-

No

O ct

Se

p-

-1

l-1

Au g

M

Fe b

Arabian Cement

-1 5

-40% 15

0 5

-30% 5

-20%

100 -1 5

16

Fe

b-

-1

16

Ja n-

D ec

-1

5

ov

N

O ct

-1

-1

Se p

5

Au

Ju

l-1

n15

Ju

g1

-40% -1

0

-10%

200

Ju

-20%

100

0%

300

15

200

10%

400

Ju n-

0%

500

5

300

20%

-1

20%

400

40% 30%

ay

500

% Change

600

M

40%

Dispatches

5

600

800 700

-1

80% 60%

ay

0

Ap r

% Change

700

M

-40%

50

-1 5

Dispatches

5

-20%

100

ar

900

r-1

0%

150

Saudi Cement Co

800

Ap

200

Fe

Fe

Souhtern Cement

5

20%

250

b-

16

b-

5

16

Ja

D

n-

5

-1

ec

5

-1

-1

ov

N

O

ct

15

Se

p-

5

15

Au

g-

Ju

Ju

M

l-1

5

15

n-

5

Ap

ay

-1

5

r-1

-1

ar

-60%

40%

300

15

-40%

50

80% 60%

350

n-

-20%

100

% Change

400

Ju

150

Dispatches

450

5

0%

500

-1

200

-1

-40%

ay

20%

250

15

-30%

M

300

b-

-20%

5

350

M

-10%

-1

40%

M ar

0%

r-1

80% 60%

Fe

10%

ar

% Change

400

15

20%

Ap

Dispatches

450

b-

40% 30%

M

500

Fe

% Change

Najran Cement

Qassim Cement

0

Dispatches

15

5

-1

ay

M

Ap

r-1

ar

M

Fe

b-

1

-1

0

80%

Fe b15 M ar -1 5 Ap r-1 5 M ay -1 5 Ju n15 Ju l-1 5 Au g15 Se p15 O ct -1 5 No v15 De c15 Ja n16 Fe b16

600

Yanbu Cement Dispatches

600

% Change

500 400

80%

800

60%

700

40%

600

20%

300

0%

200

Dispatches

% Change

80% 60% 40%

500

20%

400

0%

300

-20%

-1 5

ay

M

Ap r

M ar

b1 Fe

Au

l-1

Ju

Ju

n-

5 -1

ay

M

r-1

Ap

-1

ar

M

-1 Fe b

Ju n15 Ju l-1 5 Au g15 Se p15 O ct -1 5 No v15 De c15 Ja n16 Fe b16

-60% -1 5

0 -1 5

-60%

5

0 5 g15 Se p15 O ct -1 5 No v15 De c15 Ja n16 Fe b16

-40%

15

100

5

-40%

5

200

5

-20%

100

Source: Yamamah Cement Company, AlJazira Research

3

© All rights reserved

RESEARCH DIVISION

Acting Head of Research

RESEARCH DIVISION

BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION

Talha Nazar

Sultan Al Kadi

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran

+966 11 2256115 [email protected]

+966 11 2256374 [email protected]

General Manager – Brokerage Services &

AGM-Head of international and institutional

AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC

sales

brokerage

Brokerage

Alaa Al-Yousef

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa

Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani

+966 11 2256060 [email protected]

+966 11 2256277 [email protected]

+966 12 6618400 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers

AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province

Central Region

Abdullah Al-Rahit

Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa

+966 16 3617547 [email protected]

+966 11 2256364 [email protected]

+966 11 2256248 [email protected]

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Analyst

2. 3. 4.

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