DC and MD SREC Market Update
DC and MD SREC Market Update May 6, 2014 ©2014 SRECTrade, Inc.
Speakers Steven Eisenberg CEO
Alex Sheets Director Environmental Markets
Sam Rust Director Business Development
Agenda • Company Overview Sam Rust
• Solar Capacity and SREC Supply Steven Eisenberg
• SREC Pricing Alex Sheets
• Q and A 3
Overview
Online SREC transaction & management platform • • • • •
Since 2008 9,000+ clients 135+ MW under management 100% SREC focused Brokerage model
4
Services Corporate Electricity suppliers and institutional clients with systems above 250 kW
Residential and Small Commercial Home owners and commercial systems smaller than 250 kW
Installers Turn-key SREC solutions for solar installers and developers
5
MD Capacity Installed Estimated Installed Capacity as of 5/5/14 = 178.3 MW • 16.1 MW from Mount St. Mary’s (MSM) CY2014 • 1.4 MW registered in DC
0.35% Solar Req.
200.0
Estimated SRECs Req.= 232.8k SRECs
160.0
120.0 80.0 40.0 -
MD2012 Est. MW Req. MD2013 Est. MW Req. MD2014 Est. MW Req.
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates
Estimated Avg. Annual MW Balance Needed* = 194 MW (*not including older vintage) Future Req. CY2015: ~337.5k CY2016: ~479.6k 6
MD SREC Supply and Forecast CY2014 YTD: ~35.3k SRECs eligible Mar-2014, MSM adjusted • CY2014 total eligible supply = ~249k SRECs (includes old vintages and forecast, MSM adjusted) 250,000 MD2014 SRECs Req.
225,000 200,000 175,000
148,571
CY2014: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~16.3k SRECs
150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000
50,000 25,000 -
35,265 55,717
CY2015: • At existing capacity undersupplied by ~126.6k SRECs
9,520 2014
CY2014 Forecast Eligible CY2014, MSM Adj. Eligible CY2013, MSM Adj. Eligible CY2012
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates
CY2016: • At existing capacity undersupplied by ~285.0k SRECs
7
MD2014 Spot Pricing • Current MD2014 Market: $135 @ $140
Source: SRECTrade 8
MD 3 Year Forward Market • Current MD14-16 Market: $125 @ $135
Source: SRECTrade 9
DC Capacity Installed Estimated Installed Capacity as of 5/5/14 = 30.9 MW CY2014 0.60% Solar Req.
70.0 60.0
Estimated SRECs Req.= 72.5k SRECs
50.0 40.0 30.0
20.0 10.0 -
DC2012 MW Req.
DC2013 MW Req.
DC2014 MW Req.
Estimated Avg. Annual MW Balance Needed* = 60.5 MW (*not including older vintage) Future Req.
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates
CY2015: ~85.8k CY2016: ~102.8k 10
DC SREC Supply and Forecast CY2014 YTD: ~6.3k SRECs eligible March-2014 issuance • CY2014 total eligible supply = ~51.6k SRECs (includes old vintages and forecast) CY2014: • At existing capacity undersupplied by ~20.9k SRECs
80,000 70,000 60,000
DC2014 SRECs Req.
50,000 40,000
26,381
30,000
20,000
6,287
10,000
15,261
-
3,683 Eligible CY2012 Eligible CY2013 Eligible CY2014 CY2014 Forecast
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates 11
DC2014 Spot Pricing • Current DC14 Market: $480 @ $490
Source: SRECTrade 12
DC 3 Year Forward Market • Current DC14-16 Market: $430 @ $470
Source: SRECTrade 13
Questions? Mainline: (877) 466-4606 Brokerage Desk: Ext #4 [email protected] Steven Eisenberg [email protected] (415) 702-0863 Alex Sheets [email protected] (802) 989-2617 Sam Rust [email protected] (415) 729-3546 This document is the copyright of SRECTrade, Inc. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into and electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of SRECTrade, Inc. 14
Speakers Steven Eisenberg CEO
Alex Sheets Director Environmental Markets
Sam Rust Director Business Development
Agenda • Company Overview Sam Rust
• Solar Capacity and SREC Supply Steven Eisenberg
• SREC Pricing Alex Sheets
• Q and A 3
Overview
Online SREC transaction & management platform • • • • •
Since 2008 9,000+ clients 135+ MW under management 100% SREC focused Brokerage model
4
Services Corporate Electricity suppliers and institutional clients with systems above 250 kW
Residential and Small Commercial Home owners and commercial systems smaller than 250 kW
Installers Turn-key SREC solutions for solar installers and developers
5
MD Capacity Installed Estimated Installed Capacity as of 5/5/14 = 178.3 MW • 16.1 MW from Mount St. Mary’s (MSM) CY2014 • 1.4 MW registered in DC
0.35% Solar Req.
200.0
Estimated SRECs Req.= 232.8k SRECs
160.0
120.0 80.0 40.0 -
MD2012 Est. MW Req. MD2013 Est. MW Req. MD2014 Est. MW Req.
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates
Estimated Avg. Annual MW Balance Needed* = 194 MW (*not including older vintage) Future Req. CY2015: ~337.5k CY2016: ~479.6k 6
MD SREC Supply and Forecast CY2014 YTD: ~35.3k SRECs eligible Mar-2014, MSM adjusted • CY2014 total eligible supply = ~249k SRECs (includes old vintages and forecast, MSM adjusted) 250,000 MD2014 SRECs Req.
225,000 200,000 175,000
148,571
CY2014: • At existing capacity oversupplied by ~16.3k SRECs
150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000
50,000 25,000 -
35,265 55,717
CY2015: • At existing capacity undersupplied by ~126.6k SRECs
9,520 2014
CY2014 Forecast Eligible CY2014, MSM Adj. Eligible CY2013, MSM Adj. Eligible CY2012
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates
CY2016: • At existing capacity undersupplied by ~285.0k SRECs
7
MD2014 Spot Pricing • Current MD2014 Market: $135 @ $140
Source: SRECTrade 8
MD 3 Year Forward Market • Current MD14-16 Market: $125 @ $135
Source: SRECTrade 9
DC Capacity Installed Estimated Installed Capacity as of 5/5/14 = 30.9 MW CY2014 0.60% Solar Req.
70.0 60.0
Estimated SRECs Req.= 72.5k SRECs
50.0 40.0 30.0
20.0 10.0 -
DC2012 MW Req.
DC2013 MW Req.
DC2014 MW Req.
Estimated Avg. Annual MW Balance Needed* = 60.5 MW (*not including older vintage) Future Req.
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates
CY2015: ~85.8k CY2016: ~102.8k 10
DC SREC Supply and Forecast CY2014 YTD: ~6.3k SRECs eligible March-2014 issuance • CY2014 total eligible supply = ~51.6k SRECs (includes old vintages and forecast) CY2014: • At existing capacity undersupplied by ~20.9k SRECs
80,000 70,000 60,000
DC2014 SRECs Req.
50,000 40,000
26,381
30,000
20,000
6,287
10,000
15,261
-
3,683 Eligible CY2012 Eligible CY2013 Eligible CY2014 CY2014 Forecast
Source: PJM GATS and SRECTrade Estimates 11
DC2014 Spot Pricing • Current DC14 Market: $480 @ $490
Source: SRECTrade 12
DC 3 Year Forward Market • Current DC14-16 Market: $430 @ $470
Source: SRECTrade 13
Questions? Mainline: (877) 466-4606 Brokerage Desk: Ext #4 [email protected] Steven Eisenberg [email protected] (415) 702-0863 Alex Sheets [email protected] (802) 989-2617 Sam Rust [email protected] (415) 729-3546 This document is the copyright of SRECTrade, Inc. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into and electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of SRECTrade, Inc. 14
