Energy Market Update October 25, 2017
Inc.
Energy Market Update October 25, 2017 NYMEX Prices Close November Crude Oil CrudeNovember Oil Gasoline November Heating Oil November Natural Gas
$52.12 $1.7320 $1.8159 $2.925
Wk. Change +$0.08 +$0.0891 +$0.0131 +$0.106
MARKET COMMENTS: The energy markets closed mixed on Wednesday, as gasoline finished higher, heating oil mostly lower and crude oil lower. The DOE report offered very little surprises for the products, as the numbers came in close to the API estimates. However, propane stocks posted a draw of 1.2 million barrels, which brings total supplies to 77.6 million. Supplies are well below last year’s level when they were at 100.6 million. Crude
3Yr Avg. +0.856 457.3 438 +3.00/-6.140 Change
DOE EST. Propane
API’s
Total
Gasoline
5 Yr. Avg. 411
Total 77.6 -1.2 Crude +0.519 Cushing -0.055
Change
-5.465
3Yr Avg. 219 216.9 +2.192/-3.00 Total
Distillate Fuel
5 Yr. Avg. 214
Change
-5.246
3Yr Avg. 129.2 138 -3.00/+1.50 Total
Midwest 27.6 +0.3
Gulf 40.0 -1.4
Gasoline -5.753
Distillates -4.949
5 Yr. Avg. 131
The weekly crop progress report continues to show lagging harvest progress, as U.S. corn harvest stands at 38 percent complete vs. 59 percent last year. However, soybean harvest appears to be in line as it was pegged at 70 percent complete vs. 74 percent last year. Looking at the U.S. distillate stocks chart you can see that since early September stocks have been on a downward trend. Throughout much of the summer months supplies were running at the top end of the 5 year average and they are currently holding about in the middle. This decline could keep a floor under the market in the near-term. Today’s DOE report showed a draw of 5.246 million barrels, bringing stocks down to 129.2 million vs. 152.4 million last year.
Unplanned global supply disruptions fell to 1.6 million barrels per day in September, the lowest level since January 2012. Over the past six months, unplanned oil supply disruptions have fallen by more than 1.0 million b/d, as outages in Libya, Nigeria, and Iraq abated. In addition, Canada’s disrupted supplies, which reached their peak in April 2017 at 425,000 b/d, returned to production in August 2017. The falling price of deepwater projects was one thing talked about during last week’s Oil & Money conference in London. Steve Pastor, president of Petroleum for BHP Billiton, said that new innovations will make it possible to develop one of the biggest discovered undeveloped oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico known as Mad Dog. Tapping into satellite fields and minimizing costs by using existing infrastructure will generate profits much faster. A few years ago the cost was estimated at $20 billion, but now can be done for $9 billion.
Temperatures for the next 30 day for nearly all the U.S. are predicted to be average. At right is a look at AccuWeather’s 90 day prediction.
The number of U.S. rigs exploring for oil and natural gas fell for a third straight week, Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday in its weekly report. Oil rigs fell by 7 to 736, its lowest level since June. Texas was the week's big loser, dropping eight rigs to 436. Some are blaming the three-week slump in new rigs on Hurricane Harvey, where companies in Texas and Louisiana temporarily shelved new projects once Harvey made landfall.
Energy Market Update October 25, 2017 NYMEX Prices Close November Crude Oil CrudeNovember Oil Gasoline November Heating Oil November Natural Gas
$52.12 $1.7320 $1.8159 $2.925
Wk. Change +$0.08 +$0.0891 +$0.0131 +$0.106
MARKET COMMENTS: The energy markets closed mixed on Wednesday, as gasoline finished higher, heating oil mostly lower and crude oil lower. The DOE report offered very little surprises for the products, as the numbers came in close to the API estimates. However, propane stocks posted a draw of 1.2 million barrels, which brings total supplies to 77.6 million. Supplies are well below last year’s level when they were at 100.6 million. Crude
3Yr Avg. +0.856 457.3 438 +3.00/-6.140 Change
DOE EST. Propane
API’s
Total
Gasoline
5 Yr. Avg. 411
Total 77.6 -1.2 Crude +0.519 Cushing -0.055
Change
-5.465
3Yr Avg. 219 216.9 +2.192/-3.00 Total
Distillate Fuel
5 Yr. Avg. 214
Change
-5.246
3Yr Avg. 129.2 138 -3.00/+1.50 Total
Midwest 27.6 +0.3
Gulf 40.0 -1.4
Gasoline -5.753
Distillates -4.949
5 Yr. Avg. 131
The weekly crop progress report continues to show lagging harvest progress, as U.S. corn harvest stands at 38 percent complete vs. 59 percent last year. However, soybean harvest appears to be in line as it was pegged at 70 percent complete vs. 74 percent last year. Looking at the U.S. distillate stocks chart you can see that since early September stocks have been on a downward trend. Throughout much of the summer months supplies were running at the top end of the 5 year average and they are currently holding about in the middle. This decline could keep a floor under the market in the near-term. Today’s DOE report showed a draw of 5.246 million barrels, bringing stocks down to 129.2 million vs. 152.4 million last year.
Unplanned global supply disruptions fell to 1.6 million barrels per day in September, the lowest level since January 2012. Over the past six months, unplanned oil supply disruptions have fallen by more than 1.0 million b/d, as outages in Libya, Nigeria, and Iraq abated. In addition, Canada’s disrupted supplies, which reached their peak in April 2017 at 425,000 b/d, returned to production in August 2017. The falling price of deepwater projects was one thing talked about during last week’s Oil & Money conference in London. Steve Pastor, president of Petroleum for BHP Billiton, said that new innovations will make it possible to develop one of the biggest discovered undeveloped oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico known as Mad Dog. Tapping into satellite fields and minimizing costs by using existing infrastructure will generate profits much faster. A few years ago the cost was estimated at $20 billion, but now can be done for $9 billion.
Temperatures for the next 30 day for nearly all the U.S. are predicted to be average. At right is a look at AccuWeather’s 90 day prediction.
The number of U.S. rigs exploring for oil and natural gas fell for a third straight week, Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday in its weekly report. Oil rigs fell by 7 to 736, its lowest level since June. Texas was the week's big loser, dropping eight rigs to 436. Some are blaming the three-week slump in new rigs on Hurricane Harvey, where companies in Texas and Louisiana temporarily shelved new projects once Harvey made landfall.
