Industrial activity increases in July
CNI Indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 7 • July 2017
25 YEARS
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industrial activity increases in July The Industrial Indicators survey showed mostly positive results in July. The indicators of hours worked, sales, capacity utilization and employment are all up in the month. It is worth mentioning that industrial employment has not declined in three months (after the results for May and June were revised upward). Real total payroll and real earnings, however, experienced a decline in July, interrupting their sequence of positive results (four-month upward streak in the case of earnings).
Since early 2017, industry activity has been characterized by volatility, with the indicators posting mixed monthly results. As a result of this performance, activity remains below the level seen in 2016. Industrial sales dropped by 5% in the year to July on a year-on-year basis, while employment and hours worked are down respectively by 3.7% and 3.3% on the same comparison basis.
Industrial indicators - July 2017 Seasonally adjusted change from June 2017
da Construção
Média
Indústria de Energia
Indústrias Diversas
Grande
Ç
REAL SALES Up by 1.7%
Ç
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Up by 0.7%
Ç
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Up by 0.3 percentage point
Ç Ç Ç
EMPLOYMENT Up by 0.1%
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Down by 1.2%
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Down by 1.4%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 7 • July 2017
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Sales still fluctuating
140
After dropping by 2.2% in June, real sales edged up by 1.7% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis. Industrial sales continue to post mixed results – a trend that prevailed throughout the second quarter. While July saw a 0.2% year-on-year gain in sales, the figure is down by 5% in the year to July.
130
120
110
100
Jul/14
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Third straight month without a decline in employment
114
110
106
102
98
Jul/14
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Jobs rose by 0.1% in July in the seasonally adjusted series. After the seasonally adjusted results for May and June were revised upward (from 0.0% to 0.1% and from -0.2% to 0.0% respectively), the index is now in its third consecutive month without a negative variation for the first time since January 2015. In July, the index is down by 2.3% on a year-on-year basis, with the year-to-date figure falling by 3.7% on the same comparison basis.
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Hours worked in production remain at low levels
110 105 100 95 90 85
Jul/14
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
2
In seasonally adjusted terms, hours worked in production posted growth of 0.7% in July. As with real sales, the index has been alternating between positive and negative variations. The increase in July was not enough to reverse last month’s decline and the index remains at a low level. The indicator fell by 2.5% in July 2017 as compared to the same month the year before, while the year-to-date figure is down by 3.3% on the same comparison basis.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 7 • July 2017
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 135
Lower total payroll
130
Real total payroll in industry dropped by 1.2% in July in seasonally adjusted terms. Compared with July 2016, the indicator recorded a decline of 0.2%. In the year to July 2017, total payroll is down by 3.0% as compared to the corresponding period the year before.
125 120 115 110
Jul/14
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Average earnings reverse last month’s increase
135 130
Real earnings of industrial workers decreased by 1.4% in July (seasonally adjusted series) after dropping at the same rate in the previous month. The indicator is up by 2.2% in July 2017 from the same month the year before and by 0.7% in the first seven months of 2017 from the corresponding period in 2016.
125 120 115 110
Jul/14
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Deflator: INPC-IBGE Indústria de Energia
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
July sees year-on-year increase in capacity utilization
85
83
81
77.4%
Grande
79
77
Jul/14
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
3
In July, the capacity utilization rate grew by 0.3 percentage points to 77.4% on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis. Compared with July 2016, the indicator is up by one percentage point, with the year-to-date figure declining by 0.2 percentage points on the same comparison basis.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 7 • July 2017
Resume of results - Industrial indicators PERCENTAGE CHANGE
JUL17/ JUN17
JUL17/ JUN17 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
JUL17/ JUL16
JAN-JUL17/ JAN-JUL16
Real sales1
-0.4
1.7
0.2
-5.0
Worked hours in production
1.2
0.7
-2.5
-3.3
Employment
0.0
0.1
-2.3
-3.7
Real total payroll2
-1.0
-1.2
-0.2
-3.0
Real average earnings2
-1.1
-1.4
2.2
0.7
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
JUL17
JUN17
JUL16
Capacity utilization
77.8
77.1
76.8
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
77.4
77.1
76.4
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series ,visit: www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores industriais abril/2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.
25 YEARS
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industrial activity increases in July The Industrial Indicators survey showed mostly positive results in July. The indicators of hours worked, sales, capacity utilization and employment are all up in the month. It is worth mentioning that industrial employment has not declined in three months (after the results for May and June were revised upward). Real total payroll and real earnings, however, experienced a decline in July, interrupting their sequence of positive results (four-month upward streak in the case of earnings).
Since early 2017, industry activity has been characterized by volatility, with the indicators posting mixed monthly results. As a result of this performance, activity remains below the level seen in 2016. Industrial sales dropped by 5% in the year to July on a year-on-year basis, while employment and hours worked are down respectively by 3.7% and 3.3% on the same comparison basis.
Industrial indicators - July 2017 Seasonally adjusted change from June 2017
da Construção
Média
Indústria de Energia
Indústrias Diversas
Grande
Ç
REAL SALES Up by 1.7%
Ç
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Up by 0.7%
Ç
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Up by 0.3 percentage point
Ç Ç Ç
EMPLOYMENT Up by 0.1%
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Down by 1.2%
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Down by 1.4%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 7 • July 2017
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Sales still fluctuating
140
After dropping by 2.2% in June, real sales edged up by 1.7% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis. Industrial sales continue to post mixed results – a trend that prevailed throughout the second quarter. While July saw a 0.2% year-on-year gain in sales, the figure is down by 5% in the year to July.
130
120
110
100
Jul/14
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Third straight month without a decline in employment
114
110
106
102
98
Jul/14
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Jobs rose by 0.1% in July in the seasonally adjusted series. After the seasonally adjusted results for May and June were revised upward (from 0.0% to 0.1% and from -0.2% to 0.0% respectively), the index is now in its third consecutive month without a negative variation for the first time since January 2015. In July, the index is down by 2.3% on a year-on-year basis, with the year-to-date figure falling by 3.7% on the same comparison basis.
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Hours worked in production remain at low levels
110 105 100 95 90 85
Jul/14
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
2
In seasonally adjusted terms, hours worked in production posted growth of 0.7% in July. As with real sales, the index has been alternating between positive and negative variations. The increase in July was not enough to reverse last month’s decline and the index remains at a low level. The indicator fell by 2.5% in July 2017 as compared to the same month the year before, while the year-to-date figure is down by 3.3% on the same comparison basis.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 7 • July 2017
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 135
Lower total payroll
130
Real total payroll in industry dropped by 1.2% in July in seasonally adjusted terms. Compared with July 2016, the indicator recorded a decline of 0.2%. In the year to July 2017, total payroll is down by 3.0% as compared to the corresponding period the year before.
125 120 115 110
Jul/14
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Average earnings reverse last month’s increase
135 130
Real earnings of industrial workers decreased by 1.4% in July (seasonally adjusted series) after dropping at the same rate in the previous month. The indicator is up by 2.2% in July 2017 from the same month the year before and by 0.7% in the first seven months of 2017 from the corresponding period in 2016.
125 120 115 110
Jul/14
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
Deflator: INPC-IBGE Indústria de Energia
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
July sees year-on-year increase in capacity utilization
85
83
81
77.4%
Grande
79
77
Jul/14
Jan/15
Jul/15
Jan/16
Jul/16
Jan/17
Jul/17
3
In July, the capacity utilization rate grew by 0.3 percentage points to 77.4% on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis. Compared with July 2016, the indicator is up by one percentage point, with the year-to-date figure declining by 0.2 percentage points on the same comparison basis.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 7 • July 2017
Resume of results - Industrial indicators PERCENTAGE CHANGE
JUL17/ JUN17
JUL17/ JUN17 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
JUL17/ JUL16
JAN-JUL17/ JAN-JUL16
Real sales1
-0.4
1.7
0.2
-5.0
Worked hours in production
1.2
0.7
-2.5
-3.3
Employment
0.0
0.1
-2.3
-3.7
Real total payroll2
-1.0
-1.2
-0.2
-3.0
Real average earnings2
-1.1
-1.4
2.2
0.7
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
JUL17
JUN17
JUL16
Capacity utilization
77.8
77.1
76.8
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
77.4
77.1
76.4
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series ,visit: www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores industriais abril/2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.
