Industry still recovering at a slow pace
CNI Indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 2 • February 2018
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industry still recovering at a slow pace The February issue of the Industrial Indicators survey shows a slowdown in industrial activity levels. While real sales are up, hours worked in production edged down after growing for three months. In addition, the capacity utilization rate held virtually steady. The industrial labor market data show that employment is on a recovery path, even though the indicator showed only a modest increase in
February. Over the last five months, the indicator is up by a total of 1.3%. Real average earnings, and thus real total payroll, also remain on the rise.
In the first two months of 2018, all variables are up on a year-over-year basis. However, the indicators have increased at a low rate – except for sales, which grew by 7.3%.
Industrial indicators - February 2018 Seasonally adjusted change from January 2018
Ç da Construção
Média
Ç Indústria de Energia
Ç Indústrias Diversas
Grande
REAL SALES Up by 0.5%
Ç
EMPLOYMENT Up by 0.1%
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Down by 0.5%
Ç
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Up by 1.2%
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Down by 0.1 percentage point
Ç
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Up by 1.8%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 2 • February 2018
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Sales post growth
130
120
110
100
Feb/15
Aug/15
Feb/16
Aug/16
Feb/17
Aug/17
Feb/18
Real sales in industry recorded a 0.5% growth in February on a seasonally adjusted monthover-month basis. The increase in the month reverses the past two monthly declines, of 0.2% in December 2017 (data revised in February) and of 0.1% in January. In February, real sales are up by 6.5% from the same month in 2017, while the first two months of 2018 saw a 7.3% increase in the indicator as compared to the corresponding period last year.
Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Industry continues to recover
112
107
102
97
Feb/15
Aug/15
Feb/16
Aug/16
Feb/17
Aug/17
Feb/18
Industrial employment grew by a mere 0.1% between January and February 2018 in the seasonally adjusted series. However, January’s 0.5% decline was revised to an increase of 0.1%. In addition, the month-over-month increase in December 2017 edged up from 0.5% to 0.6%. As a result, employment has not seen a negative result in five months, accumulating growth of 1.3% increase during the period. Jobs grew by 0.5% in February 2018 on a year-over-year basis, while the indicator for the first two month of 2018 is 0.4% higher than that for the same period last year.
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Hours worked shrink
100
Seasonally adjusted hours worked in production edged down by 0.5% in February. The decline breaks a three-month streak of positive results. Hours worked in production are up by 1% as compared to February 2017, while the indicator posted growth of 1.3% in the first two months of 2018 from the corresponding period the year before.
95
90
85
Feb/15
Aug/15
Feb/16
Aug/16
Feb/17
Aug/17
Feb/18
2
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 2 • February 2018
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Total payroll grows for second straight month
130
125
120
115
110
Feb/15
Aug/15
Feb/16
Aug/16
Feb/17
Aug/17
Feb/18
Total payroll in industry recorded a 1.2% growth in February on a seasonally adjusted month-overmonth basis. This marked the second consecutive increase in the indicator. In February 2018, real total payroll is up by 3.4% from the figure observed in the same month in the previous year. In the year to February, the indicator shows a lower growth rate of 1.9% as compared to the same period in 2017.
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Earnings also on the rise
130
Real average earnings of industrial workers experienced a seasonally adjusted month-overmonth increase of 1.8% in February 2018. The index is also up for the second consecutive month. Compared with February 2017, average earnings increased by 2.9%. The indicator is up by 1.5% in the first two months of 2018 from the same period the year before.
125
120
115
110
Feb/15 Aug/15 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Feb/16
Aug/16
Feb/17
Aug/17
Feb/18
Indústria de Energia
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
Capacity utilization holds steady
83
81
Grande
78.0%
79
77
Feb/15
Aug/15
Feb/16
Aug/16
Feb/17
Aug/17
Feb/18
3
The capacity utilization rate remained stable in February. The seasonally adjusted indicator stood at 78%, down by 0.1 percentage point from January. The result is 1.4 percentage points higher than that observed in February 2017. In the first two months of 2018, the average capacity utilization rate is up by one percentage point from the corresponding period a year ago.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 2 • February 2018
Resume of results - Industrial indicators PERCENTAGE CHANGE
FEB18/ JAN18
FEB18/ JAN18 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
FEB18/ FEB17
JAN-FEB18/ JAN-FEB17
Real sales1
2.3
0.5
6.5
7.3
Worked hours in production
0.7
-0.5
1.0
1.3
Employment
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.4
Real total payroll2
1.4
1.2
3.4
1.9
Real average earnings2
1.2
1.8
2.9
1.5
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
FEB18
JAN18
FEB17
Capacity utilization
76.6
76.5
75.2
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
78.0
78.1
76.6
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores Industriais fevereiro/2018” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industry still recovering at a slow pace The February issue of the Industrial Indicators survey shows a slowdown in industrial activity levels. While real sales are up, hours worked in production edged down after growing for three months. In addition, the capacity utilization rate held virtually steady. The industrial labor market data show that employment is on a recovery path, even though the indicator showed only a modest increase in
February. Over the last five months, the indicator is up by a total of 1.3%. Real average earnings, and thus real total payroll, also remain on the rise.
In the first two months of 2018, all variables are up on a year-over-year basis. However, the indicators have increased at a low rate – except for sales, which grew by 7.3%.
Industrial indicators - February 2018 Seasonally adjusted change from January 2018
Ç da Construção
Média
Ç Indústria de Energia
Ç Indústrias Diversas
Grande
REAL SALES Up by 0.5%
Ç
EMPLOYMENT Up by 0.1%
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Down by 0.5%
Ç
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Up by 1.2%
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Down by 0.1 percentage point
Ç
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Up by 1.8%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 2 • February 2018
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Sales post growth
130
120
110
100
Feb/15
Aug/15
Feb/16
Aug/16
Feb/17
Aug/17
Feb/18
Real sales in industry recorded a 0.5% growth in February on a seasonally adjusted monthover-month basis. The increase in the month reverses the past two monthly declines, of 0.2% in December 2017 (data revised in February) and of 0.1% in January. In February, real sales are up by 6.5% from the same month in 2017, while the first two months of 2018 saw a 7.3% increase in the indicator as compared to the corresponding period last year.
Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Industry continues to recover
112
107
102
97
Feb/15
Aug/15
Feb/16
Aug/16
Feb/17
Aug/17
Feb/18
Industrial employment grew by a mere 0.1% between January and February 2018 in the seasonally adjusted series. However, January’s 0.5% decline was revised to an increase of 0.1%. In addition, the month-over-month increase in December 2017 edged up from 0.5% to 0.6%. As a result, employment has not seen a negative result in five months, accumulating growth of 1.3% increase during the period. Jobs grew by 0.5% in February 2018 on a year-over-year basis, while the indicator for the first two month of 2018 is 0.4% higher than that for the same period last year.
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Hours worked shrink
100
Seasonally adjusted hours worked in production edged down by 0.5% in February. The decline breaks a three-month streak of positive results. Hours worked in production are up by 1% as compared to February 2017, while the indicator posted growth of 1.3% in the first two months of 2018 from the corresponding period the year before.
95
90
85
Feb/15
Aug/15
Feb/16
Aug/16
Feb/17
Aug/17
Feb/18
2
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 2 • February 2018
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Total payroll grows for second straight month
130
125
120
115
110
Feb/15
Aug/15
Feb/16
Aug/16
Feb/17
Aug/17
Feb/18
Total payroll in industry recorded a 1.2% growth in February on a seasonally adjusted month-overmonth basis. This marked the second consecutive increase in the indicator. In February 2018, real total payroll is up by 3.4% from the figure observed in the same month in the previous year. In the year to February, the indicator shows a lower growth rate of 1.9% as compared to the same period in 2017.
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Earnings also on the rise
130
Real average earnings of industrial workers experienced a seasonally adjusted month-overmonth increase of 1.8% in February 2018. The index is also up for the second consecutive month. Compared with February 2017, average earnings increased by 2.9%. The indicator is up by 1.5% in the first two months of 2018 from the same period the year before.
125
120
115
110
Feb/15 Aug/15 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Feb/16
Aug/16
Feb/17
Aug/17
Feb/18
Indústria de Energia
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
Capacity utilization holds steady
83
81
Grande
78.0%
79
77
Feb/15
Aug/15
Feb/16
Aug/16
Feb/17
Aug/17
Feb/18
3
The capacity utilization rate remained stable in February. The seasonally adjusted indicator stood at 78%, down by 0.1 percentage point from January. The result is 1.4 percentage points higher than that observed in February 2017. In the first two months of 2018, the average capacity utilization rate is up by one percentage point from the corresponding period a year ago.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 2 • February 2018
Resume of results - Industrial indicators PERCENTAGE CHANGE
FEB18/ JAN18
FEB18/ JAN18 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
FEB18/ FEB17
JAN-FEB18/ JAN-FEB17
Real sales1
2.3
0.5
6.5
7.3
Worked hours in production
0.7
-0.5
1.0
1.3
Employment
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.4
Real total payroll2
1.4
1.2
3.4
1.9
Real average earnings2
1.2
1.8
2.9
1.5
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
FEB18
JAN18
FEB17
Capacity utilization
76.6
76.5
75.2
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
78.0
78.1
76.6
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores Industriais fevereiro/2018” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.
