Muangthai Leasing - Global Alliance Partners
Muangthai Leasing Company Update
Outperform (15E TP Bt22.00) Close Bt20.10
Finance & Securities
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
February 23, 2015
Profitability outlook remains bright Outperform rating on promising profitability outlook We have an Outperform call for MTLS following our earnings upgrade with the new 15E target price of Bt22/share. We maintain our positive view on MTLS, especially in regard to it being one of the top growth stocks in the financial sector. This is backed by its outperforming earnings growth thanks to its long-standing expertise in the business. 2014 net profit grew robustly by 55% YoY MTLS posted 2014 net profit of Bt544mn (+55% YoY), ahead of our forecast by 4%. The strong 2014 results were backed by 1) robust loan growth of 28%; 2) solid non-interest income growth of 20%; and 3) much lower provision expenses on improving asset quality. FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.386
0.525
KT ZMICO vs. consensus
3.6%
2.9%
Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
MTLS.BK/MTLS TB
Paid-up Shares (m)
2,120.00
Par (Bt)
2015 financial targets still indicate continued promising growth MTLS provided its business targets for 2015E and long-term strategies, which still indicate the firm’s continued promising earnings outlook over the long run. MTLS expects its top and bottom lines to grow in the range of around 30% over the next three years backed by a favorable industry outlook, more aggressive branch expansion, and lower funding costs after receiving new capital from the latest IPO in late 2014.
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
43.00/1,309.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.02
52 week High / Low (Bt)
20.40/8.60
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
69,867.00 0.81
Estimated free float (%)
25.43
Beta
1.23
URL
www.muangthaileasing.co.th
CGR
-
Revise up net profit estimates for 15-16E by 13-16% The earnings upgrade reflects better-than-expected 2014 results and the firm’s 2015 guidance. Moreover, the higher-than-expected proceeds from the IPO vs. our latest forecasts as well as the potential for higherthan-expected branch expansion compared with the original plan and our earlier estimate are other reasons behind our earnings upgrade. Following our NP upgrade, we raised our 15E target price estimate for MTLS to Bt22/share from Bt6.4/share since the IPO.
Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec PPOP (Btm)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
523
572
908
1,236
1,648
Net profit (Btmn)
351
544
838
1,140
1,497
EPS (Bt)
0.22
0.26
0.40
0.54
0.71
EPS growth (%)
-9%
15%
54%
36%
31%
BV (Bt)
1.23
2.41
2.67
3.01
3.45
Dividend (Bt)
0.20
0.13
0.20
0.27
0.35
Prapharas Nonthapiboon
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
Analyst, no 17836
PER (x)
90.08
78.31
50.86
37.39
28.46
[email protected]
PBV (x)
16.34
8.35
7.52
6.67
5.82
66 (0) 2695-5872
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
1.00
0.65
0.98
1.34
1.76
20%
15%
16%
19%
22%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 1 of 7
2014 net profit grew robustly by 55% YoY MTLS posted 2014 net profit (NP) of Bt544mn (+55% YoY), ahead of our forecast by 4%. The higher-than-expected NP was due largely to 1) a lower-than-expected provision, which ended up at just Bt14mn vs. our forecast of Bt36mn due to better asset quality; 2) higher-thanexpected loan growth of 28% in 2014 vs. our forecast of 24%. The strong 2014 result was backed by 1) robust loan growth of 28% YoY; 2) solid non-interest income growth of 20% YoY; and 3) much lower provision expenses on improving asset quality. The strong NP should be thanks partly to its more aggressive branch expansion by 91 branches in 2014 vs. 52 branches in 2013. We expect to see even more aggressive branch expansion from 2015 onwards after it received new capital from the latest IPO in late 2014. On the balance sheet side, the financial position is strengthening, especially in regard to its lower debt-to-equity ratio at just 0.7x in 2014 after the IPO from 2.1x in 2013, leaving plenty of room for further business expansion. Meanwhile, its NPL ratio continued to decline to 1.5% in 2014 from 2.1% in 2013, while its NPL coverage ratio continued to strengthen to 290% in 2014 from 258% in 2013.
Figure 1: 2014 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec. Interest Income Interest Expenses Net Interest Income Non Interest Income
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14
% YoY
% QoQ
2013
2014
% YoY
346
404
432
25%
7%
1,301
1,567
20%
59
72
74
24%
2%
214
266
24%
287
332
358
25%
8%
1,087
1,301
20% 17%
70
72
76
8%
6%
247
289
Operating Income
357
403
434
22%
8%
1,335
1,590
19%
Operating Expenses
198
219
240
21%
9%
723
883
22%
Operating Profit
159
184
195
22%
6%
611
708
16%
7
9
-253%
21%
156
14
-91%
34
36
13%
7%
89
136
53%
(3)
-53%
-20%
(15)
(13)
-10%
15%
6%
351
544
55%
Provision expenses (Reversal)
(6)
Taxes
32
Gain(loss) from foreclosed assets Net Profit
(6) 127
(4) 139
147
PPOP
127
150
159
25%
6%
523
572
9%
EPS (Bt)
0.81
0.88
0.69
-14%
-22%
2.23
2.57
15%
Key Statistics and Ratios
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14
2013
2014
125
114
112
125
112
2.14%
1.50%
Gross NPLs (Btmn) Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Loan Loss Reserve/Loans Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio Debt to equity ratio
2.14%
1.64%
1.50%
257.7%
270.9%
290.2%
257.7% 290.2%
5.5%
4.4%
4.4%
5.5%
4.4%
32.2%
28.6%
58.2%
32.2%
58.2%
149.7%
141.6%
214.8%
2.1
2.5
Cost to Income
55.4%
54.4%
55.2%
54.2%
55.5%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
19.7%
17.8%
17.5%
18.5%
18.2%
Interest Spread
N.A.
17.9%
17.0%
18.3%
16.4%
Net Interest Margin
N.A.
19.7%
19.2%
20.4%
18.8%
Loan Growth YoY
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
22%
28%
N.A.
7.0%
7.1%
N.A.
7.1%
Loan Growth QoQ Source: KTZMICO Research
0.7
149.7% 214.8%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
2.1
0.7
page 2 of 7
2015 financial targets still indicate continued promising growth MTLS provided its business targets for 2015E and long-term strategies, which still indicate the firm’s continued promising earnings outlook over the long run. MTLS expects its top and bottom lines to grow in the range of around 30% over the next three years backed by a favorable industry outlook, which still leaves plenty of room for growth. Moreover, branch expansion will be more aggressive and funding costs will drop after it received new capital from the latest IPO in late 2014. The firm expects to expand its total branches to around 1,000 by 2017E from 506 branches at the end of 2014. For the 2015 outlook, MTLS’s main targets are 1) expected revenue and net loan growth of 30%; 2) the opening of around 170 new branches likely within early 2015, bringing the total to around 676 branches at the end of 2015E; and 3) expected net profit margin improvement, mainly on lower funding costs. Moreover, apart from expanding its core business base, MTLS is also looking to explore new business expansion after the firm obtained new capital from the IPO. This will be used in part to fund the firm’s more aggressive move to expand its personal loan business from 2015 onwards as well as the expansion to the nano-finance business, which we expect to begin making a contribution from 2016 onwards. The firm plans to participate in the nano-finance business due to the greater attractiveness of the return (the government sets the maximum interest rate charge of 36% for nano-finance vs. 28% for the personal loan business currently) and incentives given by the government (e.g., some revenue tax exemptions). Therefore, the risk vs. return for nano-finance looks more attractive vs. the current personal loan business. The firm is in the process of applying for a nano-finance license and plans to start expanding to its current client base of over 650,000 clients. It sees around 200,000-300,000 as the target group for the nano-finance business. Revise up net profit estimates for 15-16E by 13-16% We raised our net profit forecasts for MTLS by 13% and 16% for 2015E and 2016E, respectively, to reflect the better-than-expected 2014 results and the firm’s 2015 guidance, as well as the higher-than-expected proceeds (by around Bt800mn) from the IPO vs. our latest forecast. Moreover, the potential for higher-than-expected branch expansion compared with the original plan and our earlier estimate is another reason behind our earnings upgrade, as this should greatly benefit earnings and loan growth from 2015 onwards (see Figure 2). On top of this, the likelihood of an improving spread on lower funding costs as well as a lower provision could provide further earnings support. The firm has received more favorable borrowing rates and credit lines from banks thanks to its stronger earnings track record. Note that we already included some potential new lending from the nano-finance business in our earnings projections from 2016E onwards. Following our NP upgrade, we raised our 15E target price estimate for MTLS to Bt22/share from Bt6.4/share since the IPO. Our new target price was derived from the Gordon growth model and based on long-term sustainable ROE of 23% and an L-T growth rate of 12%. Figure 2: Key changes in our earnings revision 2015E Net Profit (Btmn) % Change in net profit from previous forecasts % YoY Change in net profit Loan growth (%) Interest Spread Net interest margin (NIM) Provision for loan loss (Btmn) Provision for loan loss (% to loans) Cost to income ratio Source: KT ZMICO Research
New 838 13% 54% 32% 18.8% 21.2% 54 0.55% 50%
2016E Previous 743
30% 18.2% 21.5% 94 1.00% 52%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
New 1,140 16% 36% 34% 19.0% 21.8% 79 0.60% 48%
Previous 987
30% 18.7% 21.4% 122 1.00% 50%
page 3 of 7
Figure 3: Financial and valuation summary vs. peers Net Profit (Btmn)
Name
13A
14E
NP Growth(%) EPS Growth (%)
PER (X)
P/BV (X)
PEG (X)
PBV/ROE(%) Div.Yield(%)
ROE (%)
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
Aeon Thana Sinsap Thailand* KrungThai Card** Asia Sermkij Leasing Ratchthani Leasing ** Thitikorn Large companies
2,501 1,283 641 754 429 5,608
2,487 2,938 1,755 1,995 670 777 704 824 155 268 5,771 6,802
-1 37 4 -7 -64 3
18 14 16 17 73 18
-1 37 6 -7 -65 -6
19 14 24 17 88 32
11.0 11.4 11.5 14.7 36.7 17.1
9.3 10.0 9.3 12.6 19.5 12.1
2.5 2.7 1.9 2.7 1.3 2.2
2.2 -12.93 2.3 0.31 1.8 1.97 2.4 -2.13 1.3 -0.56 2.0 -2.67
0.49 0.73 0.39 0.73 0.22 0.51
0.10 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.35 0.16
0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.20 0.12
3.3 3.5 5.8 n.a. 1.5 3.5
3.8 4.0 6.8 4.7 2.4 4.3
25.7 26.0 17.7 19.8 3.8 18.6
25.8 24.9 19.4 20.9 6.5 19.5
Srisawad Power 1979 Group Lease ** IFS Capital Thailand ** Krungthai Car Rent & Lease Singer Thailand Lease It ** Muang Thai Leasing** Small companies
575 240 125 273 321 32 351 1,918
821 1,058 115 404 138 155 227 263 297 346 48 65 544 838 2,191 3,129
43 -52 10 -17 -7 49 55 14
29 250 12 16 16 37 54 43
7 -56 7 -17 5 -10 15 -7
29 164 14 15 14 27 54 45
36.8 81.8 15.0 12.3 11.8 17.2 78.3 36.2
28.6 31.0 13.2 10.7 10.4 13.6 50.9 22.6
9.6 n.a. n.a. 1.6 2.5 2.5 8.3 4.9
7.8 3.0 1.8 1.5 2.2 2.4 7.5 3.7
5.22 -1.46 2.02 -0.75 2.35 -1.67 5.21 1.6
0.99 0.19 0.95 0.69 0.77 0.50 0.94 0.72
0.25 n.a. n.a. 0.12 0.11 0.14 0.54 0.23
0.26 0.23 0.12 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.48 0.21
1.4 n.a. n.a. 4.6 3.4 n.a. 0.6 2.5
1.7 2.0 3.9 5.4 3.4 4.5 1.0 3.1
38.3 n.a. n.a. 13.6 22.2 17.2 15.5 21.4
30.1 13.1 14.5 14.8 20.2 17.5 15.6 18.0
Sector average
7,526
7,962 9,931
6
25
-6
39
26.6
17.4
3.6
2.9
-0.55
0.62
0.20
0.16
3.0
3.7 20.0 18.7
Source: KTZMICO Research, Bloomberg * Fiscal year ended March **2014 is actual figures
Figure 4: MTLS's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 12.0 10.0 8.0
+3.5 S.D. +3 S.D. +2.5 S.D. +2 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
6.0
Avg.
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
4.0
2014
PBV (x)
Implied Upside/ market price Downside (Bt)
(%)
+3.5SD
11.0
27
32
+3.0SD
10.3
25
24
+2.5SD
9.6
23
15
+2.0SD
8.9
21
7 -10
Feb-15
Feb-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Jan-15
-27
Jan-15
15
Jan-15
6.1
Jan-15
Average Dec-14
-18
0.0
Dec-14
16
Dec-14
18
6.8
Dec-14
7.5
+0.5SD Dec-14
+1.0SD
2.0
-0.5SD
5.4
13
-35
-1SD
4.7
11
-43
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 5: MTLS's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
2014
PER (x)
+2 S D 85 +1 5S D 75 +1 S.D.
(Bt)
(%)
+3.0SD
96.8
25
24
65
+2.5SD
90.2
23
15
+2.0SD
83.7
21
7
45
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1 .5 S.D.
+1.5SD
77.1
20
-2
35
-2 S.D.
+1.0SD
70.6
18
-10
+0.5SD
64.1
16
-18
Average
57.5
15
-27
-0.5SD -1SD
51.0 44.4
13 11
-35 -43
105 +3.0 S.D. 95 +2.5 S.D.
55
+0.5 S.D.
Avg.
25
Feb-15
Feb-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Jan-15
Jan-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Dec-14
Dec-14
Dec-14
Dec-14
5
Nov-14
15
Implied Upside/ market price Downside
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 4 of 7
Statement of Comprehensive Income (Btmn) Year-end 31 Dec Total Interest Income Total Interest Expenses Net Interest Income Fee and Service income
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
1,301
1,567
2,095
2,786
3,717
214
266
210
289
442
1,087
1,301
1,885
2,497
3,275
238
279
349
435
535
9
9
14
21
27
Other income Total Non-Interest Income Operating Income Personnel expenses Retal expenses
247
289
363
456
562
1,335
1,590
2,248
2,953
3,837
413
514
653
829
1,053
79
97
131
173
228
723
883
1,127
1,429
1,809
Operating Profit
611
708
1,121
1,525
2,028
Provision expenses
156
14
54
79
130
Extraordinary Items
(15)
(13)
(16)
(17)
(21)
Income Tax expense
89
136
213
289
379
Minority Interests
-
-
-
-
-
Net Profit
351
544
838
1,140
1,497
Total Operating Expenses
Pre Provisioning Operating Profit (PPOP)
523
572
908
1,236
1,648
EPS (Bt)
0.22
0.26
0.40
0.54
0.71
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
Cash
94
706
Deposits with banks/Loans to related parties
13
19
1
501
5,835
7,448
Statement of Financial Position (Btmn) As at 31 Dec Assets
Net Investment Gross Loans Accrued Interest Receivable
-
Less: Loan Loss Reserves
(322)
Net Loans Premises and Equipment, Net Other Assets Total Assets
(325)
90
99
2 9,827 (354)
109
2 13,124 (394)
2 17,387 (472)
5,513
7,123
9,472
12,730
16,915
335
362
413
470
511
60
66
80
90
93
6,016
8,777
10,058
13,391
17,629
Liabilities & Equity O/D and Short-term borrowings from banks Other Borrowing Other Liabilities
230
500
678
1,306
2,232
3,669
2,967
3,497
5,446
7,790
180
204
215
250
291
Total Liabilities
4,079
3,671
4,390
7,002
10,313
Paid-up Capital
1,575
2,120
2,120
2,120
2,120
Premium on Share Capital
-
2,380
2,380
2,380
2,380
Retained Earning
338
538
1,070
1,761
2,658 158
Other Equity Items
24
68
98
128
Minority Interest
-
-
-
-
-
Total Shareholders' Equity of the bank
1,937
5,106
5,668
6,389
7,316
Total Liabilities and Shareholders Equity Source: KTZMICO Research
6,016
8,777
10,058
13,391
17,629
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 5 of 7
Valuation and Ratio Analysis Year-end 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
EPS
0.22
0.26
0.40
0.54
0.71
DPS
0.20
0.13
0.20
0.27
0.35
BVPS
1.23
2.41
2.67
3.01
3.45
P/E
90.08
78.31
50.86
37.39
28.46
P/BV
16.34
8.35
7.52
6.67
5.82
1.00
0.65
0.98
1.34
1.76
13.9%
54.8%
54.0%
36.0%
31.4%
EPS
-8.8%
15.0%
54.0%
36.0%
31.4%
Net Interest Income
19.3%
19.7%
44.9%
32.5%
31.1%
Non Interest Income
14.5%
35.4%
42.4%
38.8%
33.2%
Fee and Service income
33.4%
17.3%
24.8%
24.8%
22.9%
Operating Income
21.6%
19.1%
41.4%
31.4%
29.9%
Operating Expenses
26.2%
22.0%
27.7%
26.8%
26.7%
Operating Profit
16.6%
15.7%
58.5%
36.0%
33.0%
PPOP
20.9%
9.4%
58.7%
36.1%
33.4%
Loans
22.2%
27.6%
31.9%
33.6%
32.5%
NPLs
163.7%
-10.4%
17.5%
44.9%
54.7%
Per/Share Data (Bt)
Multiplier (X)
Dividend yield (%) Growth YoY (%) Net Profit
Financial Ratio Gross NPLs (Btmn)
125
112
132
191
295
Gross NPLs/Loans
2.1%
1.5%
1.3%
1.5%
1.7%
257.7%
290.2%
269.2%
206.5%
160.0%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Loan Loss Reserve/Loans
5.5%
4.4%
3.6%
3.0%
2.7%
Provision expenses (Reversal)/Total loans
2.7%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.8%
32.2%
58.2%
56.4%
47.7%
41.5%
149.7%
214.8%
235.4%
194.4%
173.5%
Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio Debt to Equity ratio
2.11
0.72
0.77
1.10
1.41
Profitability Ratio ROA
6.5%
7.4%
8.9%
9.7%
9.7%
ROE
20.0%
15.5%
15.6%
18.9%
21.8%
Cost to Income
54.2%
55.5%
50.1%
48.4%
47.2%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
18.5%
18.2%
16.1%
15.4%
14.7%
Net Interest Margin (NIM)
20.44%
18.84%
21.19%
21.76%
21.46%
Net profit Margin
22.70%
29.32%
34.09%
35.15%
34.99%
20.2%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
Loan Growth - Net
22.2%
27.6%
31.9%
33.6%
32.5%
Cost to Income
54.2%
55.5%
50.1%
48.4%
47.2%
Net Interest Margin
20.4%
18.8%
21.2%
21.8%
21.5%
Tax rate
Key Assumptions
Provision expenses (Reversal) (Btmn) Provision expenses (Reversal)/Total loans
156
14
54
79
130
2.7%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.8%
Source: KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 6 of 7
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between -10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between -10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 7 of 7
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Outperform (15E TP Bt22.00) Close Bt20.10
Finance & Securities
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
February 23, 2015
Profitability outlook remains bright Outperform rating on promising profitability outlook We have an Outperform call for MTLS following our earnings upgrade with the new 15E target price of Bt22/share. We maintain our positive view on MTLS, especially in regard to it being one of the top growth stocks in the financial sector. This is backed by its outperforming earnings growth thanks to its long-standing expertise in the business. 2014 net profit grew robustly by 55% YoY MTLS posted 2014 net profit of Bt544mn (+55% YoY), ahead of our forecast by 4%. The strong 2014 results were backed by 1) robust loan growth of 28%; 2) solid non-interest income growth of 20%; and 3) much lower provision expenses on improving asset quality. FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.386
0.525
KT ZMICO vs. consensus
3.6%
2.9%
Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
MTLS.BK/MTLS TB
Paid-up Shares (m)
2,120.00
Par (Bt)
2015 financial targets still indicate continued promising growth MTLS provided its business targets for 2015E and long-term strategies, which still indicate the firm’s continued promising earnings outlook over the long run. MTLS expects its top and bottom lines to grow in the range of around 30% over the next three years backed by a favorable industry outlook, more aggressive branch expansion, and lower funding costs after receiving new capital from the latest IPO in late 2014.
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
43.00/1,309.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/0.02
52 week High / Low (Bt)
20.40/8.60
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
69,867.00 0.81
Estimated free float (%)
25.43
Beta
1.23
URL
www.muangthaileasing.co.th
CGR
-
Revise up net profit estimates for 15-16E by 13-16% The earnings upgrade reflects better-than-expected 2014 results and the firm’s 2015 guidance. Moreover, the higher-than-expected proceeds from the IPO vs. our latest forecasts as well as the potential for higherthan-expected branch expansion compared with the original plan and our earlier estimate are other reasons behind our earnings upgrade. Following our NP upgrade, we raised our 15E target price estimate for MTLS to Bt22/share from Bt6.4/share since the IPO.
Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec PPOP (Btm)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
523
572
908
1,236
1,648
Net profit (Btmn)
351
544
838
1,140
1,497
EPS (Bt)
0.22
0.26
0.40
0.54
0.71
EPS growth (%)
-9%
15%
54%
36%
31%
BV (Bt)
1.23
2.41
2.67
3.01
3.45
Dividend (Bt)
0.20
0.13
0.20
0.27
0.35
Prapharas Nonthapiboon
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
Analyst, no 17836
PER (x)
90.08
78.31
50.86
37.39
28.46
[email protected]
PBV (x)
16.34
8.35
7.52
6.67
5.82
66 (0) 2695-5872
Dividend yield (%) ROE (%)
1.00
0.65
0.98
1.34
1.76
20%
15%
16%
19%
22%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 1 of 7
2014 net profit grew robustly by 55% YoY MTLS posted 2014 net profit (NP) of Bt544mn (+55% YoY), ahead of our forecast by 4%. The higher-than-expected NP was due largely to 1) a lower-than-expected provision, which ended up at just Bt14mn vs. our forecast of Bt36mn due to better asset quality; 2) higher-thanexpected loan growth of 28% in 2014 vs. our forecast of 24%. The strong 2014 result was backed by 1) robust loan growth of 28% YoY; 2) solid non-interest income growth of 20% YoY; and 3) much lower provision expenses on improving asset quality. The strong NP should be thanks partly to its more aggressive branch expansion by 91 branches in 2014 vs. 52 branches in 2013. We expect to see even more aggressive branch expansion from 2015 onwards after it received new capital from the latest IPO in late 2014. On the balance sheet side, the financial position is strengthening, especially in regard to its lower debt-to-equity ratio at just 0.7x in 2014 after the IPO from 2.1x in 2013, leaving plenty of room for further business expansion. Meanwhile, its NPL ratio continued to decline to 1.5% in 2014 from 2.1% in 2013, while its NPL coverage ratio continued to strengthen to 290% in 2014 from 258% in 2013.
Figure 1: 2014 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec. Interest Income Interest Expenses Net Interest Income Non Interest Income
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14
% YoY
% QoQ
2013
2014
% YoY
346
404
432
25%
7%
1,301
1,567
20%
59
72
74
24%
2%
214
266
24%
287
332
358
25%
8%
1,087
1,301
20% 17%
70
72
76
8%
6%
247
289
Operating Income
357
403
434
22%
8%
1,335
1,590
19%
Operating Expenses
198
219
240
21%
9%
723
883
22%
Operating Profit
159
184
195
22%
6%
611
708
16%
7
9
-253%
21%
156
14
-91%
34
36
13%
7%
89
136
53%
(3)
-53%
-20%
(15)
(13)
-10%
15%
6%
351
544
55%
Provision expenses (Reversal)
(6)
Taxes
32
Gain(loss) from foreclosed assets Net Profit
(6) 127
(4) 139
147
PPOP
127
150
159
25%
6%
523
572
9%
EPS (Bt)
0.81
0.88
0.69
-14%
-22%
2.23
2.57
15%
Key Statistics and Ratios
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14
2013
2014
125
114
112
125
112
2.14%
1.50%
Gross NPLs (Btmn) Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Loan Loss Reserve/Loans Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio Debt to equity ratio
2.14%
1.64%
1.50%
257.7%
270.9%
290.2%
257.7% 290.2%
5.5%
4.4%
4.4%
5.5%
4.4%
32.2%
28.6%
58.2%
32.2%
58.2%
149.7%
141.6%
214.8%
2.1
2.5
Cost to Income
55.4%
54.4%
55.2%
54.2%
55.5%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
19.7%
17.8%
17.5%
18.5%
18.2%
Interest Spread
N.A.
17.9%
17.0%
18.3%
16.4%
Net Interest Margin
N.A.
19.7%
19.2%
20.4%
18.8%
Loan Growth YoY
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
22%
28%
N.A.
7.0%
7.1%
N.A.
7.1%
Loan Growth QoQ Source: KTZMICO Research
0.7
149.7% 214.8%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
2.1
0.7
page 2 of 7
2015 financial targets still indicate continued promising growth MTLS provided its business targets for 2015E and long-term strategies, which still indicate the firm’s continued promising earnings outlook over the long run. MTLS expects its top and bottom lines to grow in the range of around 30% over the next three years backed by a favorable industry outlook, which still leaves plenty of room for growth. Moreover, branch expansion will be more aggressive and funding costs will drop after it received new capital from the latest IPO in late 2014. The firm expects to expand its total branches to around 1,000 by 2017E from 506 branches at the end of 2014. For the 2015 outlook, MTLS’s main targets are 1) expected revenue and net loan growth of 30%; 2) the opening of around 170 new branches likely within early 2015, bringing the total to around 676 branches at the end of 2015E; and 3) expected net profit margin improvement, mainly on lower funding costs. Moreover, apart from expanding its core business base, MTLS is also looking to explore new business expansion after the firm obtained new capital from the IPO. This will be used in part to fund the firm’s more aggressive move to expand its personal loan business from 2015 onwards as well as the expansion to the nano-finance business, which we expect to begin making a contribution from 2016 onwards. The firm plans to participate in the nano-finance business due to the greater attractiveness of the return (the government sets the maximum interest rate charge of 36% for nano-finance vs. 28% for the personal loan business currently) and incentives given by the government (e.g., some revenue tax exemptions). Therefore, the risk vs. return for nano-finance looks more attractive vs. the current personal loan business. The firm is in the process of applying for a nano-finance license and plans to start expanding to its current client base of over 650,000 clients. It sees around 200,000-300,000 as the target group for the nano-finance business. Revise up net profit estimates for 15-16E by 13-16% We raised our net profit forecasts for MTLS by 13% and 16% for 2015E and 2016E, respectively, to reflect the better-than-expected 2014 results and the firm’s 2015 guidance, as well as the higher-than-expected proceeds (by around Bt800mn) from the IPO vs. our latest forecast. Moreover, the potential for higher-than-expected branch expansion compared with the original plan and our earlier estimate is another reason behind our earnings upgrade, as this should greatly benefit earnings and loan growth from 2015 onwards (see Figure 2). On top of this, the likelihood of an improving spread on lower funding costs as well as a lower provision could provide further earnings support. The firm has received more favorable borrowing rates and credit lines from banks thanks to its stronger earnings track record. Note that we already included some potential new lending from the nano-finance business in our earnings projections from 2016E onwards. Following our NP upgrade, we raised our 15E target price estimate for MTLS to Bt22/share from Bt6.4/share since the IPO. Our new target price was derived from the Gordon growth model and based on long-term sustainable ROE of 23% and an L-T growth rate of 12%. Figure 2: Key changes in our earnings revision 2015E Net Profit (Btmn) % Change in net profit from previous forecasts % YoY Change in net profit Loan growth (%) Interest Spread Net interest margin (NIM) Provision for loan loss (Btmn) Provision for loan loss (% to loans) Cost to income ratio Source: KT ZMICO Research
New 838 13% 54% 32% 18.8% 21.2% 54 0.55% 50%
2016E Previous 743
30% 18.2% 21.5% 94 1.00% 52%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
New 1,140 16% 36% 34% 19.0% 21.8% 79 0.60% 48%
Previous 987
30% 18.7% 21.4% 122 1.00% 50%
page 3 of 7
Figure 3: Financial and valuation summary vs. peers Net Profit (Btmn)
Name
13A
14E
NP Growth(%) EPS Growth (%)
PER (X)
P/BV (X)
PEG (X)
PBV/ROE(%) Div.Yield(%)
ROE (%)
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
14E
15E
Aeon Thana Sinsap Thailand* KrungThai Card** Asia Sermkij Leasing Ratchthani Leasing ** Thitikorn Large companies
2,501 1,283 641 754 429 5,608
2,487 2,938 1,755 1,995 670 777 704 824 155 268 5,771 6,802
-1 37 4 -7 -64 3
18 14 16 17 73 18
-1 37 6 -7 -65 -6
19 14 24 17 88 32
11.0 11.4 11.5 14.7 36.7 17.1
9.3 10.0 9.3 12.6 19.5 12.1
2.5 2.7 1.9 2.7 1.3 2.2
2.2 -12.93 2.3 0.31 1.8 1.97 2.4 -2.13 1.3 -0.56 2.0 -2.67
0.49 0.73 0.39 0.73 0.22 0.51
0.10 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.35 0.16
0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.20 0.12
3.3 3.5 5.8 n.a. 1.5 3.5
3.8 4.0 6.8 4.7 2.4 4.3
25.7 26.0 17.7 19.8 3.8 18.6
25.8 24.9 19.4 20.9 6.5 19.5
Srisawad Power 1979 Group Lease ** IFS Capital Thailand ** Krungthai Car Rent & Lease Singer Thailand Lease It ** Muang Thai Leasing** Small companies
575 240 125 273 321 32 351 1,918
821 1,058 115 404 138 155 227 263 297 346 48 65 544 838 2,191 3,129
43 -52 10 -17 -7 49 55 14
29 250 12 16 16 37 54 43
7 -56 7 -17 5 -10 15 -7
29 164 14 15 14 27 54 45
36.8 81.8 15.0 12.3 11.8 17.2 78.3 36.2
28.6 31.0 13.2 10.7 10.4 13.6 50.9 22.6
9.6 n.a. n.a. 1.6 2.5 2.5 8.3 4.9
7.8 3.0 1.8 1.5 2.2 2.4 7.5 3.7
5.22 -1.46 2.02 -0.75 2.35 -1.67 5.21 1.6
0.99 0.19 0.95 0.69 0.77 0.50 0.94 0.72
0.25 n.a. n.a. 0.12 0.11 0.14 0.54 0.23
0.26 0.23 0.12 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.48 0.21
1.4 n.a. n.a. 4.6 3.4 n.a. 0.6 2.5
1.7 2.0 3.9 5.4 3.4 4.5 1.0 3.1
38.3 n.a. n.a. 13.6 22.2 17.2 15.5 21.4
30.1 13.1 14.5 14.8 20.2 17.5 15.6 18.0
Sector average
7,526
7,962 9,931
6
25
-6
39
26.6
17.4
3.6
2.9
-0.55
0.62
0.20
0.16
3.0
3.7 20.0 18.7
Source: KTZMICO Research, Bloomberg * Fiscal year ended March **2014 is actual figures
Figure 4: MTLS's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 12.0 10.0 8.0
+3.5 S.D. +3 S.D. +2.5 S.D. +2 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
6.0
Avg.
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
4.0
2014
PBV (x)
Implied Upside/ market price Downside (Bt)
(%)
+3.5SD
11.0
27
32
+3.0SD
10.3
25
24
+2.5SD
9.6
23
15
+2.0SD
8.9
21
7 -10
Feb-15
Feb-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Jan-15
-27
Jan-15
15
Jan-15
6.1
Jan-15
Average Dec-14
-18
0.0
Dec-14
16
Dec-14
18
6.8
Dec-14
7.5
+0.5SD Dec-14
+1.0SD
2.0
-0.5SD
5.4
13
-35
-1SD
4.7
11
-43
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 5: MTLS's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
2014
PER (x)
+2 S D 85 +1 5S D 75 +1 S.D.
(Bt)
(%)
+3.0SD
96.8
25
24
65
+2.5SD
90.2
23
15
+2.0SD
83.7
21
7
45
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1 .5 S.D.
+1.5SD
77.1
20
-2
35
-2 S.D.
+1.0SD
70.6
18
-10
+0.5SD
64.1
16
-18
Average
57.5
15
-27
-0.5SD -1SD
51.0 44.4
13 11
-35 -43
105 +3.0 S.D. 95 +2.5 S.D.
55
+0.5 S.D.
Avg.
25
Feb-15
Feb-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Jan-15
Jan-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Dec-14
Dec-14
Dec-14
Dec-14
5
Nov-14
15
Implied Upside/ market price Downside
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 4 of 7
Statement of Comprehensive Income (Btmn) Year-end 31 Dec Total Interest Income Total Interest Expenses Net Interest Income Fee and Service income
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
1,301
1,567
2,095
2,786
3,717
214
266
210
289
442
1,087
1,301
1,885
2,497
3,275
238
279
349
435
535
9
9
14
21
27
Other income Total Non-Interest Income Operating Income Personnel expenses Retal expenses
247
289
363
456
562
1,335
1,590
2,248
2,953
3,837
413
514
653
829
1,053
79
97
131
173
228
723
883
1,127
1,429
1,809
Operating Profit
611
708
1,121
1,525
2,028
Provision expenses
156
14
54
79
130
Extraordinary Items
(15)
(13)
(16)
(17)
(21)
Income Tax expense
89
136
213
289
379
Minority Interests
-
-
-
-
-
Net Profit
351
544
838
1,140
1,497
Total Operating Expenses
Pre Provisioning Operating Profit (PPOP)
523
572
908
1,236
1,648
EPS (Bt)
0.22
0.26
0.40
0.54
0.71
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
Cash
94
706
Deposits with banks/Loans to related parties
13
19
1
501
5,835
7,448
Statement of Financial Position (Btmn) As at 31 Dec Assets
Net Investment Gross Loans Accrued Interest Receivable
-
Less: Loan Loss Reserves
(322)
Net Loans Premises and Equipment, Net Other Assets Total Assets
(325)
90
99
2 9,827 (354)
109
2 13,124 (394)
2 17,387 (472)
5,513
7,123
9,472
12,730
16,915
335
362
413
470
511
60
66
80
90
93
6,016
8,777
10,058
13,391
17,629
Liabilities & Equity O/D and Short-term borrowings from banks Other Borrowing Other Liabilities
230
500
678
1,306
2,232
3,669
2,967
3,497
5,446
7,790
180
204
215
250
291
Total Liabilities
4,079
3,671
4,390
7,002
10,313
Paid-up Capital
1,575
2,120
2,120
2,120
2,120
Premium on Share Capital
-
2,380
2,380
2,380
2,380
Retained Earning
338
538
1,070
1,761
2,658 158
Other Equity Items
24
68
98
128
Minority Interest
-
-
-
-
-
Total Shareholders' Equity of the bank
1,937
5,106
5,668
6,389
7,316
Total Liabilities and Shareholders Equity Source: KTZMICO Research
6,016
8,777
10,058
13,391
17,629
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 5 of 7
Valuation and Ratio Analysis Year-end 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
EPS
0.22
0.26
0.40
0.54
0.71
DPS
0.20
0.13
0.20
0.27
0.35
BVPS
1.23
2.41
2.67
3.01
3.45
P/E
90.08
78.31
50.86
37.39
28.46
P/BV
16.34
8.35
7.52
6.67
5.82
1.00
0.65
0.98
1.34
1.76
13.9%
54.8%
54.0%
36.0%
31.4%
EPS
-8.8%
15.0%
54.0%
36.0%
31.4%
Net Interest Income
19.3%
19.7%
44.9%
32.5%
31.1%
Non Interest Income
14.5%
35.4%
42.4%
38.8%
33.2%
Fee and Service income
33.4%
17.3%
24.8%
24.8%
22.9%
Operating Income
21.6%
19.1%
41.4%
31.4%
29.9%
Operating Expenses
26.2%
22.0%
27.7%
26.8%
26.7%
Operating Profit
16.6%
15.7%
58.5%
36.0%
33.0%
PPOP
20.9%
9.4%
58.7%
36.1%
33.4%
Loans
22.2%
27.6%
31.9%
33.6%
32.5%
NPLs
163.7%
-10.4%
17.5%
44.9%
54.7%
Per/Share Data (Bt)
Multiplier (X)
Dividend yield (%) Growth YoY (%) Net Profit
Financial Ratio Gross NPLs (Btmn)
125
112
132
191
295
Gross NPLs/Loans
2.1%
1.5%
1.3%
1.5%
1.7%
257.7%
290.2%
269.2%
206.5%
160.0%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Loan Loss Reserve/Loans
5.5%
4.4%
3.6%
3.0%
2.7%
Provision expenses (Reversal)/Total loans
2.7%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.8%
32.2%
58.2%
56.4%
47.7%
41.5%
149.7%
214.8%
235.4%
194.4%
173.5%
Equity/Asset Loan to borrowing ratio Debt to Equity ratio
2.11
0.72
0.77
1.10
1.41
Profitability Ratio ROA
6.5%
7.4%
8.9%
9.7%
9.7%
ROE
20.0%
15.5%
15.6%
18.9%
21.8%
Cost to Income
54.2%
55.5%
50.1%
48.4%
47.2%
Non Interest Income/Total Income
18.5%
18.2%
16.1%
15.4%
14.7%
Net Interest Margin (NIM)
20.44%
18.84%
21.19%
21.76%
21.46%
Net profit Margin
22.70%
29.32%
34.09%
35.15%
34.99%
20.2%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
Loan Growth - Net
22.2%
27.6%
31.9%
33.6%
32.5%
Cost to Income
54.2%
55.5%
50.1%
48.4%
47.2%
Net Interest Margin
20.4%
18.8%
21.2%
21.8%
21.5%
Tax rate
Key Assumptions
Provision expenses (Reversal) (Btmn) Provision expenses (Reversal)/Total loans
156
14
54
79
130
2.7%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.8%
Source: KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 6 of 7
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between -10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between -10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES
page 7 of 7
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
