Page | 1 amazonaws com
Page | 1
Courtesy of FEMA Page | 2
Wave Action (VE, AE)
Surge Inundation (AE)
http://motleynews.net/2012/10/29/some-of-the-more-dramatic-photos-from-hurricane-sandy/#jpcarousel-20895 Page | 3
This photo provided by 6abc Action News
Page | 4
Think Beyond FEMA or else Flirt with Disaster
A 100-year flood is NOT a flood that happens only once in a hundred years !!!!
Note: FEMA does not include climate change in their flood mapping Page | 5
PROBABILITY OF FLOODING – HIGH HAZARD FLOOD ZONE: Period of Time 1 year
Probability of 100-year Flood Occurring 1%
10 years
10%
15 years
14%
20 years
18%
30 years
26%
Flood Hazards and Facility Vulnerability Assessment and Mitigation
Page | 6
Risk-Informed Decision-Making: Understanding Flood Risk
Ref. FEMA Page | 7
Flood Risk = Hazard Probability x Consequence
Page | 8
• The flood hazard(s) leading to the site flood impact (i.e., adverse outcome). • The likelihood(s) (probability) of the flood hazard(s) occurring. • The performance of the structure during the flood event (i.e. probability of failure). • The consequence(s) (qualitative or quantitative of the site flood impact; e.g., damage, business losses, loss of life, etc.) of the scenario occurring.
“Risk-informed” flooding decisions involve:
• Defining the flood risk (incl. uncertainty). • Differentiating between “high probabilitylow consequence” and “low probabilityhigh consequence” events.
• Applying resources and capital to achieve the greatest benefit in terms of preventing losses. Page | 9
Flood Hazards and Facility Vulnerability Assessment and Mitigation
Page | 9
EXAMPLE OF RISK F-N DIAGRAM: high probability-high consequence The Grey Zone: high probability – low consequence or low probability – high consequence low probability-low consequence Page | 10
Flood Hazards and Facility Vulnerability Assessment and Mitigation
Page | 10
Flood Elevation vs. Flood Return Period 26.0
EST. FLOOD ELEVATION
24.0
Region of Uncertainty
22.0
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
Flood Hazard Assessment
12.0
10.0 1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
FLOOD RETURN PERIOD (Log Scale) Page | 11
Flood Hazards and Facility Vulnerability Assessment and Mitigation
Page | 11
Vulnerability Assessment
Page | 12
Flood Hazards and Facility Vulnerability Assessment and Mitigation
Page | 12
Flood Damage vs. Flood Return Period $80,000,000
EST. FLOOD DAMAGES
$70,000,000 $60,000,000 $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 $20,000,000 $10,000,000 $1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
FLOOD RETURN PERIOD (Log Scale)
Page | 13
Flood Hazards and Facility Vulnerability Assessment and Mitigation
Page | 13
“100YR”
Page | 15
“1,000YR”
1. The bad thing is not going to happen; 2. If the bag thing does occur, it will affect others and not me; 3. If the bad thing does affect me, the effects will be minimal. Only 20% of American homes at risk for floods are covered by gov’t-provided flood insurance Page | 16
1. Risk Underestimating: future disaster will not happen or since it has happened, it won’t happen again, at least for a long time (“Gambler’s Fallacy”); 2. Procrastination: a natural tendency especially when actions require time & money; 3. Short Term Focus: difficult to compute cost-benefit trade-offs. Page | 17
NUCLEAR INDUSTRY RESPONSE TO ASSESSING FLOOD VULNERABILITY
Page | 18
Flood Hazards and Facility Vulnerability Assessment and Mitigation
Page | 18
July 2011 Page | 19
Flood Walk Down: Identify existing physical vulnerabilities against existing licensing basis flood (1970s)
Flood Re-Evaluation: Develop up-to-date estimates of flood elevations using current state-of-practice techniques
Integrated Assessment: Develop flood protection / mitigation actions to address re-evaluated flood hazard Page | 20
River Flooding
Coastal Processes Flooding on Streams and Rivers
Storm Surge
WindGenerated Waves
Dam Failure Tsunami
Page | 21
21
Page | 22
Page | 23
Page | 24
TWO-DIMENSIONAL FLOOD INUNDATION MODELING
Page | 25
Page | 26
STILLWATER ELEVATION - STORM SIMULATION
HURRICANE PARAMETERS Central Pressure Peripheral Pressure Radius of Maximum Winds Track Direction Forward Translational Speed
Page | 27
HURDAT Database
Page | 28
Synthetic Storms (Atmospheric Models)
AdCIRC Model Wind Field for “Sandy” Page | 29
Courtesy of FEMA Page | 2
Wave Action (VE, AE)
Surge Inundation (AE)
http://motleynews.net/2012/10/29/some-of-the-more-dramatic-photos-from-hurricane-sandy/#jpcarousel-20895 Page | 3
This photo provided by 6abc Action News
Page | 4
Think Beyond FEMA or else Flirt with Disaster
A 100-year flood is NOT a flood that happens only once in a hundred years !!!!
Note: FEMA does not include climate change in their flood mapping Page | 5
PROBABILITY OF FLOODING – HIGH HAZARD FLOOD ZONE: Period of Time 1 year
Probability of 100-year Flood Occurring 1%
10 years
10%
15 years
14%
20 years
18%
30 years
26%
Flood Hazards and Facility Vulnerability Assessment and Mitigation
Page | 6
Risk-Informed Decision-Making: Understanding Flood Risk
Ref. FEMA Page | 7
Flood Risk = Hazard Probability x Consequence
Page | 8
• The flood hazard(s) leading to the site flood impact (i.e., adverse outcome). • The likelihood(s) (probability) of the flood hazard(s) occurring. • The performance of the structure during the flood event (i.e. probability of failure). • The consequence(s) (qualitative or quantitative of the site flood impact; e.g., damage, business losses, loss of life, etc.) of the scenario occurring.
“Risk-informed” flooding decisions involve:
• Defining the flood risk (incl. uncertainty). • Differentiating between “high probabilitylow consequence” and “low probabilityhigh consequence” events.
• Applying resources and capital to achieve the greatest benefit in terms of preventing losses. Page | 9
Flood Hazards and Facility Vulnerability Assessment and Mitigation
Page | 9
EXAMPLE OF RISK F-N DIAGRAM: high probability-high consequence The Grey Zone: high probability – low consequence or low probability – high consequence low probability-low consequence Page | 10
Flood Hazards and Facility Vulnerability Assessment and Mitigation
Page | 10
Flood Elevation vs. Flood Return Period 26.0
EST. FLOOD ELEVATION
24.0
Region of Uncertainty
22.0
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
Flood Hazard Assessment
12.0
10.0 1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
FLOOD RETURN PERIOD (Log Scale) Page | 11
Flood Hazards and Facility Vulnerability Assessment and Mitigation
Page | 11
Vulnerability Assessment
Page | 12
Flood Hazards and Facility Vulnerability Assessment and Mitigation
Page | 12
Flood Damage vs. Flood Return Period $80,000,000
EST. FLOOD DAMAGES
$70,000,000 $60,000,000 $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 $20,000,000 $10,000,000 $1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
FLOOD RETURN PERIOD (Log Scale)
Page | 13
Flood Hazards and Facility Vulnerability Assessment and Mitigation
Page | 13
“100YR”
Page | 15
“1,000YR”
1. The bad thing is not going to happen; 2. If the bag thing does occur, it will affect others and not me; 3. If the bad thing does affect me, the effects will be minimal. Only 20% of American homes at risk for floods are covered by gov’t-provided flood insurance Page | 16
1. Risk Underestimating: future disaster will not happen or since it has happened, it won’t happen again, at least for a long time (“Gambler’s Fallacy”); 2. Procrastination: a natural tendency especially when actions require time & money; 3. Short Term Focus: difficult to compute cost-benefit trade-offs. Page | 17
NUCLEAR INDUSTRY RESPONSE TO ASSESSING FLOOD VULNERABILITY
Page | 18
Flood Hazards and Facility Vulnerability Assessment and Mitigation
Page | 18
July 2011 Page | 19
Flood Walk Down: Identify existing physical vulnerabilities against existing licensing basis flood (1970s)
Flood Re-Evaluation: Develop up-to-date estimates of flood elevations using current state-of-practice techniques
Integrated Assessment: Develop flood protection / mitigation actions to address re-evaluated flood hazard Page | 20
River Flooding
Coastal Processes Flooding on Streams and Rivers
Storm Surge
WindGenerated Waves
Dam Failure Tsunami
Page | 21
21
Page | 22
Page | 23
Page | 24
TWO-DIMENSIONAL FLOOD INUNDATION MODELING
Page | 25
Page | 26
STILLWATER ELEVATION - STORM SIMULATION
HURRICANE PARAMETERS Central Pressure Peripheral Pressure Radius of Maximum Winds Track Direction Forward Translational Speed
Page | 27
HURDAT Database
Page | 28
Synthetic Storms (Atmospheric Models)
AdCIRC Model Wind Field for “Sandy” Page | 29
