Partnership for the Delaware Estuary
Tidal Wetlands in the Delaware Estuary: Projected Effects of Salinity and Sea Level Rise and Potential Adaptation Strategies
Danielle Kreeger
Science Director Partnership for the Delaware Estuary
Importance of Tidal Wetlands
Tidal Wetlands A Signature Trait of System •Near Contiguous Band
•Diverse:
Freshwater Tidal Marshes Brackish Marshes Salt Marshes
Tidal Wetlands A Signature Trait Ecological Values: Structural habitat for fish and wildlife nurseries for imperiled taxa Functional food web water quality flood protection
+ Many other supporting services
Wetland Ecosystem Services Milenium Ecosystem Assessment 1º Service
2º Service Food
Provisioning
Genetic Materials Biochemical Products Fiber and Fuel Sequestration
Carbon
Storm Protection/ Wave Attenuation/ Flood Protection Gas Regulation
Cultural/ Spiritual Human Well Being
Supporting
Erosion control Protect Property Values and infrastructure Carbon Sequestration Oxygen production
Water Quality
Sequestration, Filtering
Recreation Spiritual and Inspirational
Bird watching, hunting, boating Native American Uses University reasearch & school projects/trips Landscape pictures, paintings, open space Wildlife, shellfish, insects Maintain Plant Communities Primary Production
Educational Aesthetic Value Habitat Biodiversity Production Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical Processes
4º Service
Fisheries Support Algae and invertebrate production Phragmites control research Research in Antifungal Agents Cellulose stock
Sediment Stabilization
Regulating
3º Service
Maintain trophic cycles, soil building
Carbon Caps, mitigation Meet TMDLs for sediment
TMDLs: Nutrients, Pollutants
Valuation of New Jersey’s Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection
Slide from Bill Mates, NJDEP
Kreeger
6
Tidal Wetlands A Signature Trait of the Delaware Estuary System Ecological Values: Structural
habitat for fish and wildlife nurseries for imperiled taxa
Functional
food web water quality flood protection
Concerns:
Degradation
Degradation
Severely Stressed 35%
Minimally or Not Stressed 17%
Moderately Stressed 48%
Tidal Wetlands Ecological Values: Structural
habitat
Functional
food web water quality flood protection
Concerns: Degradation
Conversion & Loss
Freshwater Tidal Wetland Acreage Estimated
< 5% remains
Tidal Wetlands
1992
Ecological Values: Structural
habitat
Functional
food web water quality flood protection
2006
Concerns: Degradation Conversion & Loss
Sea level rise Salinity rise
Canary Creek Marsh, DE
Shoreline Erosion
Courtesy D. Bushek, Rutgers
Courtesy J. Gebert, ACOE
Tidal Wetlands Ecological Values: Structural
habitat
Functional
food web water quality flood protection
Concerns: Degradation Conversion & Loss Sea Level Rise
Storms
Tidal Wetlands Concerns:
Degradation Conversion and Loss Sea Level Rise Storms
Sediment budget
Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary 1. Likely Physical Changes Temp
Salinity
Sea Level Rise
Storms
2. Example Effects on Resources
Drinking Water
Marshes
Bivalves DK 17
Climate Adaptation Planning
Case Studies
ID Vulnerabilities
Ecological Valuation
Tidal Marshes
Bivalve Shellfish
Adaptation Options
Recommendations and Reporting
Drinking Water Kreeger
18
Tidal Wetland Vulnerability? Freshwater Tidal Marshes • Salinity Rise Causes Conversion to Brackish • Barriers to Landward Migration • Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting
Salt Marshes • Sea Level Rise, Subsidence and Sediment Deficits Lead to Drowning • Storms and Wind Wave Erosion • Barriers to Landward Migration • Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives
Tidal marshes need to move: 1) horizontally (landward) and/or 2) vertically (to keep pace)
Can they do it? Where? Slide adapted from Michael Craghan, Rutgers
Tidal Wetlands Adaptation Planning
Goal: Maximize long-term ecosystem health and resiliency
Wetland Tough Choices • Where will wetlands will be converted to open water? • Where can we save them ? • Where is strategic retreat the best option? DK 21
Projecting the Fate of Tidal Wetlands and Their Ecosystem Services Using SLAMM Modeling - Industrial Economics
2000
2100
Areas for Model Improvement • Erosion/Accretion Rates • Better Vegetation Classifications • Marsh Drowning Mechanisms
Added Complexity •Ecological Flows
•Land Use Change
•LNG Terminal
•Spills, NRDA
•Dredging •Withdrawals •Inundation, SLR •Horseshoe Crabs, Red Knots •Emerging Pollutants
So What Can We Do?
What Can We Do? 1. Preserve Resiliency Protect and Conserve (CCMP)
What Can We Do? 2. Monitor & Study
MACWA The Mid-Atlantic Coastal Wetland Assessment
What Can We Do? 3. Maintain, Enhance, Restore.. Shovel Ready Projects !!
…But Smartly Regional Restoration for Future Sustainability /
Changes in Wetland Function Natural versus Restored Reference Wetland Condition
Function
Existing Wetlands
Restored Wetlands
time
Slide from Amy Jacobs (DE DNREC)
Principle: “Restore” for the Future • Forecast future sustainable states • Smart “restoration” = climate adaptation
•
Shift policy and management paradigms
DK 31
Delaware Estuary Living Shoreline Initiative Shellfish as Natural Breakwaters
• • • •
Reduce wave energy Trap silt Reduce bank erosion Protect salt marsh Slide from Dave Bushek, Rutgers
Salt Marshes
Geukensia demissa
Ecosystem Engineers
Kathy Klein
Mussel – Spartina Mutualism
Ribbed mussels as an alternative target restoration species – Not commercially important, not eaten – No conflict between restoring shellfish and protecting human health and industry
– Mussels provide ecological benefits like oysters – Filtration, habitat enrichment – Biodeposition facilitates cord grass production and levee formation – Shoreline stabilization
– Could combine with restoration of marshes and nearshore oyster reefs for greater impact, in some areas
Living Shorelines
Importance of Shellfish to Examples the Delaware Estuary Watershed
Site D - Lower Energy
Log + Log + Shell Bags
Goal: Maximize Future Tidal Wetland Natural Capital Principles: 1. Base natural capital on functional acreage, not just acreage enhancing condition of existing wetlands may yield greater functional acreage in the long term compared to traditional restoration/creation (acreage focus)
2. Strive for high resilience and low vulnerability invest in wetlands that are most sustainable 3. Consider Ways to Mitigate Watershed Stressors broad impacts (sediment deficits, nutrient imbalances) may be best addressed with management and policy decision-making Kreeger
40
Carbon Sequestration Uplift
vs
Preservation and Enhancement
How much CS per $ in 1 year? in 30 years?
(e.g. Living Shorelines)
condition Landward Migration Investments
Kreeger
function
Carbon Seq. Traditional Restoration, acreage Creation
41
- End -
e.g., Carbon Sequestration Some Literature Temperate wetlands accumulate 1.42 tons C ha-1 yr-1 Wetlands represent the largest component of the terrestrial biological C pool Average soil organic carbon density (Denmark) Wetlands: 35.6 kg m−2 Forests: 16.9 kg m−2 Agricultural areas: 14.0 kg m−2 Conversion of agricultural lands to wetlands can enhance C sequestration In contrast to other wetlands, tidal salt marshes release negligible amounts of greenhouse gases and store more carbon per unit area
Danielle Kreeger
Science Director Partnership for the Delaware Estuary
Importance of Tidal Wetlands
Tidal Wetlands A Signature Trait of System •Near Contiguous Band
•Diverse:
Freshwater Tidal Marshes Brackish Marshes Salt Marshes
Tidal Wetlands A Signature Trait Ecological Values: Structural habitat for fish and wildlife nurseries for imperiled taxa Functional food web water quality flood protection
+ Many other supporting services
Wetland Ecosystem Services Milenium Ecosystem Assessment 1º Service
2º Service Food
Provisioning
Genetic Materials Biochemical Products Fiber and Fuel Sequestration
Carbon
Storm Protection/ Wave Attenuation/ Flood Protection Gas Regulation
Cultural/ Spiritual Human Well Being
Supporting
Erosion control Protect Property Values and infrastructure Carbon Sequestration Oxygen production
Water Quality
Sequestration, Filtering
Recreation Spiritual and Inspirational
Bird watching, hunting, boating Native American Uses University reasearch & school projects/trips Landscape pictures, paintings, open space Wildlife, shellfish, insects Maintain Plant Communities Primary Production
Educational Aesthetic Value Habitat Biodiversity Production Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical Processes
4º Service
Fisheries Support Algae and invertebrate production Phragmites control research Research in Antifungal Agents Cellulose stock
Sediment Stabilization
Regulating
3º Service
Maintain trophic cycles, soil building
Carbon Caps, mitigation Meet TMDLs for sediment
TMDLs: Nutrients, Pollutants
Valuation of New Jersey’s Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection
Slide from Bill Mates, NJDEP
Kreeger
6
Tidal Wetlands A Signature Trait of the Delaware Estuary System Ecological Values: Structural
habitat for fish and wildlife nurseries for imperiled taxa
Functional
food web water quality flood protection
Concerns:
Degradation
Degradation
Severely Stressed 35%
Minimally or Not Stressed 17%
Moderately Stressed 48%
Tidal Wetlands Ecological Values: Structural
habitat
Functional
food web water quality flood protection
Concerns: Degradation
Conversion & Loss
Freshwater Tidal Wetland Acreage Estimated
< 5% remains
Tidal Wetlands
1992
Ecological Values: Structural
habitat
Functional
food web water quality flood protection
2006
Concerns: Degradation Conversion & Loss
Sea level rise Salinity rise
Canary Creek Marsh, DE
Shoreline Erosion
Courtesy D. Bushek, Rutgers
Courtesy J. Gebert, ACOE
Tidal Wetlands Ecological Values: Structural
habitat
Functional
food web water quality flood protection
Concerns: Degradation Conversion & Loss Sea Level Rise
Storms
Tidal Wetlands Concerns:
Degradation Conversion and Loss Sea Level Rise Storms
Sediment budget
Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary 1. Likely Physical Changes Temp
Salinity
Sea Level Rise
Storms
2. Example Effects on Resources
Drinking Water
Marshes
Bivalves DK 17
Climate Adaptation Planning
Case Studies
ID Vulnerabilities
Ecological Valuation
Tidal Marshes
Bivalve Shellfish
Adaptation Options
Recommendations and Reporting
Drinking Water Kreeger
18
Tidal Wetland Vulnerability? Freshwater Tidal Marshes • Salinity Rise Causes Conversion to Brackish • Barriers to Landward Migration • Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting
Salt Marshes • Sea Level Rise, Subsidence and Sediment Deficits Lead to Drowning • Storms and Wind Wave Erosion • Barriers to Landward Migration • Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives
Tidal marshes need to move: 1) horizontally (landward) and/or 2) vertically (to keep pace)
Can they do it? Where? Slide adapted from Michael Craghan, Rutgers
Tidal Wetlands Adaptation Planning
Goal: Maximize long-term ecosystem health and resiliency
Wetland Tough Choices • Where will wetlands will be converted to open water? • Where can we save them ? • Where is strategic retreat the best option? DK 21
Projecting the Fate of Tidal Wetlands and Their Ecosystem Services Using SLAMM Modeling - Industrial Economics
2000
2100
Areas for Model Improvement • Erosion/Accretion Rates • Better Vegetation Classifications • Marsh Drowning Mechanisms
Added Complexity •Ecological Flows
•Land Use Change
•LNG Terminal
•Spills, NRDA
•Dredging •Withdrawals •Inundation, SLR •Horseshoe Crabs, Red Knots •Emerging Pollutants
So What Can We Do?
What Can We Do? 1. Preserve Resiliency Protect and Conserve (CCMP)
What Can We Do? 2. Monitor & Study
MACWA The Mid-Atlantic Coastal Wetland Assessment
What Can We Do? 3. Maintain, Enhance, Restore.. Shovel Ready Projects !!
…But Smartly Regional Restoration for Future Sustainability /
Changes in Wetland Function Natural versus Restored Reference Wetland Condition
Function
Existing Wetlands
Restored Wetlands
time
Slide from Amy Jacobs (DE DNREC)
Principle: “Restore” for the Future • Forecast future sustainable states • Smart “restoration” = climate adaptation
•
Shift policy and management paradigms
DK 31
Delaware Estuary Living Shoreline Initiative Shellfish as Natural Breakwaters
• • • •
Reduce wave energy Trap silt Reduce bank erosion Protect salt marsh Slide from Dave Bushek, Rutgers
Salt Marshes
Geukensia demissa
Ecosystem Engineers
Kathy Klein
Mussel – Spartina Mutualism
Ribbed mussels as an alternative target restoration species – Not commercially important, not eaten – No conflict between restoring shellfish and protecting human health and industry
– Mussels provide ecological benefits like oysters – Filtration, habitat enrichment – Biodeposition facilitates cord grass production and levee formation – Shoreline stabilization
– Could combine with restoration of marshes and nearshore oyster reefs for greater impact, in some areas
Living Shorelines
Importance of Shellfish to Examples the Delaware Estuary Watershed
Site D - Lower Energy
Log + Log + Shell Bags
Goal: Maximize Future Tidal Wetland Natural Capital Principles: 1. Base natural capital on functional acreage, not just acreage enhancing condition of existing wetlands may yield greater functional acreage in the long term compared to traditional restoration/creation (acreage focus)
2. Strive for high resilience and low vulnerability invest in wetlands that are most sustainable 3. Consider Ways to Mitigate Watershed Stressors broad impacts (sediment deficits, nutrient imbalances) may be best addressed with management and policy decision-making Kreeger
40
Carbon Sequestration Uplift
vs
Preservation and Enhancement
How much CS per $ in 1 year? in 30 years?
(e.g. Living Shorelines)
condition Landward Migration Investments
Kreeger
function
Carbon Seq. Traditional Restoration, acreage Creation
41
- End -
e.g., Carbon Sequestration Some Literature Temperate wetlands accumulate 1.42 tons C ha-1 yr-1 Wetlands represent the largest component of the terrestrial biological C pool Average soil organic carbon density (Denmark) Wetlands: 35.6 kg m−2 Forests: 16.9 kg m−2 Agricultural areas: 14.0 kg m−2 Conversion of agricultural lands to wetlands can enhance C sequestration In contrast to other wetlands, tidal salt marshes release negligible amounts of greenhouse gases and store more carbon per unit area
